Category: Statistical Analysis

Better than average: Quarterbacks

Which QBs were the best against a particular defense?

The best measurement of a quarterback is how they fared against a defense relative to all other quarterbacks that also faced that defense. That removes the impact of schedule strength, because the highest game allowed by a great defense may seem average were it against a weak secondary.

The top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each quarterback was recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the average quarterback that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a first place counts as a top-4 and a top-8.

Bottom line: This is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective quarterbacks were with the schedule influences removed.

TM Quarterbacks BTA score Top 1 Top 3 Top 8
TB Tom Brady 27 6 9 12
BUF Josh Allen 25 3 7 15
KC Patrick Mahomes 23 4 7 12
LAC Justin Herbert 22 2 7 13
LAR Matthew Stafford 20 2 5 13
DAL Dak Prescott 18 1 6 11
GB Aaron Rodgers 17 1 5 11
ARI Kyler Murray 16 2 5 9
MIN Kirk Cousins 16 2 4 10
BAL Lamar Jackson 14 1 4 9
CIN Joe Burrow 14 1 4 9
PHI Jalen Hurts 12 0 2 10
SEA Russell Wilson 10 2 3 5
TEN Ryan Tannehill 10 1 1 8
IND Carson Wentz 9 0 1 8
LVR Derek Carr 9 0 3 6
SF Jimmy Garoppolo 8 0 2 6
DET Jared Goff 7 1 1 5
HOU Davis Mills 7 0 2 5
MIA Tua Tagovailoa 7 0 2 5
NE Mac Jones 7 0 0 7
ATL Matt Ryan 6 0 0 6
CAR Sam Darnold 6 1 2 3
DEN Teddy Bridgewater 6 0 1 5
WAS Taylor Heinicke 6 0 1 5
CHI Justin Fields 5 0 1 4
JAC Trevor Lawrence 5 0 1 4
NO Taysom Hill 5 0 2 3
PIT Ben Roethlisberger 5 0 1 4

The top quarterbacks are to be expected, and Tom Brady’s decision to return last year proved to be one of his best seasons. Justin Herbert was second only to Josh Allen in the number of top-8 games that shows how consistently good he was.

Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow fell a bit in this measurement. Jalen Hurts never turned in the most fantasy points allowed by a defense and only twice had a top-4 performance while playing one of the lighter schedules in 2021.

Davis Mills only started ten games as a rookie but half were in the top-8 allowed by the defense and twice he managed a top-4, all while playing in a mostly mediocre offense. That’s promising for this year.

This is the list of quarterbacks that posted the best fantasy game allowed by an opposing defense all year for 2021.

TM Quarterbacks Top 1
TB Tom Brady 6
KC Patrick Mahomes 4
BUF Josh Allen 3
LAC Justin Herbert 2
LAR Matthew Stafford 2
ARI Kyler Murray 2
MIN Kirk Cousins 2
SEA Russell Wilson 2

No surprises other than there were only three quarterbacks that produced the most fantasy points allowed by a defense more than twice. Brady, Mahomes, and Allen all proved to be true difference-makers.

Kings of third down: Tight Ends

The best tight ends on third down.

Tight ends always have around five elite players each season, and another five with enough production and consistency that they merit fantasy attention. All the rest – “just another player.” And the usage of a tight end on a third-down play is the least of all positions. Just five players ended up with more than 17 third-down plays, therefore averaging more than one per game.

This breakdown is very fantasy relevant in that it shows the true importance that these players have to their offenses. And those with the higher yards-per-catch are used more as a receiver than as a blocker.

The below considers any tight end that had at least ten third-down catches.

Third-down receptions

Tight End Third Downs First Downs
1 Pat Freiermuth 24 14
2 Travis Kelce 22 19
3 Anthony Firkser 21 10
4 Mark Andrews 19 15
5 Kyle Pitts 19 13
6 Mike Gesicki 17 13
7 Evan Engram 17 9
8 Noah Fant 17 4
9 Zach Ertz 16 11
10 Hunter Henry 15 14
11 Dalton Schultz 15 13
12 Tyler Higbee 14 11
13 George Kittle 14 10
14 Tyler Conklin 14 5
15 Jared Cook 13 11
16 Gerald Everett 13 9
17 Dallas Goedert 12 12
18 T.J. Hockenson 12 8
19 Cole Kmet 12 3
20 Rob Gronkowski 11 10

The rookie Pat Freiermuth impressed on a Steelers team that did not  throw the ball downfield due to weak-armed Ben Roethlisberger. That called up his number more often than expected, and it could change with a new quarterback taking over for 2022. But he’s already a big cog in the passing machine and in just his first season. Freiermuth will only get better.

Kyle Pitts also ranked well with 19 first-down catches. Anthony Firkser was an oddity in that he had a very marginal year (34-291-2) but well over half of his catches came on third down, after The first two downs usually went to Derrick Henry. Mike Gesicki turned in a career year (73-780-2) and stepped up not only in fantasy points but on how often the Fins looked his way when they needed a first down.

Third-down yards-per-catch

Tight End YPC Third Downs
1 Rob Gronkowski 17.0 11
2 Dallas Goedert 16.3 12
3 George Kittle 15.4 14
4 Mark Andrews 15.1 19
5 Dawson Knox 14.3 10
6 Kyle Pitts 13.6 19
7 Travis Kelce 12.5 22
8 Dalton Schultz 11.5 15
9 Jared Cook 11.3 13
10 Dan Arnold 11.3 11
11 Mike Gesicki 10.9 17
12 Tyler Higbee 9.9 14
13 Zach Ertz 9.4 16
14 C.J. Uzomah 9.4 10
15 Cole Kmet 8.9 12
16 Hunter Henry 8.9 15
17 Anthony Firkser 8.9 21
18 Tyler Conklin 8.8 14
19 Evan Engram 8.8 17
20 Gerald Everett 7.9 13

The average tight end gains under ten yards per catch, so producing more than that on the most critical down of a drive is a true measure of what value they bring to the passing scheme. And the top five – Rob Gronkowski, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dawson Knox all averaged higher on third down than their overall averages. They got better when the pass was thrown on third down.

There are no major surprises here, but Dallas Goedert’s hefty 16.3-yard-average impressed more considering the offense around him.

Third-down success rate

Player Success Third Downs First Downs YPC TD
1 Dallas Goedert 100% 12 12 16.3 1
2 Hunter Henry 93% 15 14 8.9 4
3 Rob Gronkowski 91% 11 10 17.0 4
4 Dalton Schultz 87% 15 13 11.5 2
5 Travis Kelce 86% 22 19 12.5 4
6 Jared Cook 85% 13 11 11.3 3
7 Dawson Knox 80% 10 8 14.3 3
8 Mark Andrews 79% 19 15 15.1 1
9 Tyler Higbee 79% 14 11 9.9 3
10 Mike Gesicki 76% 17 13 10.9 0
11 George Kittle 71% 14 10 15.4 1
12 Gerald Everett 69% 13 9 7.9 2
13 Zach Ertz 69% 16 11 9.4 1
14 Kyle Pitts 68% 19 13 13.6 0
15 T.J. Hockenson 67% 12 8 8.4 1
16 Dan Arnold 64% 11 7 11.3 0
17 C.J. Uzomah 60% 10 6 9.4 2
18 Pat Freiermuth 58% 24 14 6.9 2
19 Evan Engram 53% 17 9 8.8 2
20 Anthony Firkser 48% 21 10 8.9 1
21 Tyler Conklin 36% 14 5 8.8 0
22 Cole Kmet 25% 12 3 8.9 0
23 Noah Fant 24% 17 4 7.2 1

Once again, Dallas Goedert bubbled up to the top as the only tight end that logged a first down each time he caught a pass on a third down. Hunter Henry (93%) and Dalton Schultz (87%) did not gain  many yards on third down but were more successful than most. Any tight end with more than 50% success on third down is notable for their team, but the Top-10 were all 75%.

Pat Freiermuth fell in this metric, and worse yet, he only gained 6.9 yards per catch. Such was the Steelers passing game last year. Noah Fant also fell badly in this measurement with only four first downs despite 17 third-down passes.

The most notable here were Goedert, Henry, and Schultz. Jared Cook rated well but at 34 years old, may not be back. That could get more work for Donald Parham, who caught three third-down passes  and two were touchdowns.

Kings of third down: Wide Receivers

The best wide receivers on third down.

Third down was made for wide receivers. Unless there are only a few yards to gain for a first down, chances are the first read for every quarterback is his most reliable wide receiver. They make money catching touchdowns, but their impact on third down is even more important. This listing considers the 49 wide receivers with at least 13 third-down catches.

Third-down rushes were excluded since there were only 17 by a wideout and one by a tight end. The only receivers with more multiple third-down runs were Amon-Ray St. Brown (3), CeeDee Lamb (2), and Kadarius Toney (2).

Catching the occasional deep pass has value and racking up yards and scores wins games. But the wideout that can extend drives with a third-down catch is the most valuable. Plays resulting in touchdowns on third down were counted as a first down since they were the most successful conclusion to a play. Targets were not included since incompletions could happen for reasons not related to the wideout.

Third-down receptions

Wide Receiver Receptions First Downs
1 Justin Jefferson 36 31
2 Hunter Renfrow 33 18
3 Cooper Kupp 31 26
4 Keenan Allen 31 25
5 Jaylen Waddle 31 23
6 Davante Adams 31 23
7 Tyreek Hill 30 28
8 Diontae Johnson 30 19
9 Brandin Cooks 29 24
10 Michael Pittman Jr. 25 19
11 D.J. Moore 24 19
12 Ja’Marr Chase 24 16
13 Amon-Ra St. Brown 24 14
14 Stefon Diggs 23 21
15 Russell Gage 23 14
16 Tyler Boyd 22 16
17 A.J. Brown 22 15
18 Chase Claypool 21 15
19 Marquise Brown 21 9
20 Mike Evans 20 20

His second season was just as effective for Justin Jefferson, who led all NFL wideouts with 36 catches on third down. The busiest wideouts were either slot receivers which short-yardage receptions like Hunter Renfrow, Jaylen Waddle, and Diontae Johnson. Or the elite primary wideouts like Jefferson, Cooper Kupp. Keenan Allen. Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill.

2021 was expected to be a great year for rookie wideouts and it’s more than a little impressive on the first-year production for Jaylen Waddle (31), Ja’Marr Chase (24), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (24 plus three rushes).  Michael Pittman, Brandin Cooks, and D.J. Moore  were heavily relied on while playing for teams that didn’t pass all that well.

Third-down yards-per-catch

Wide Receiver YPC Receptions
1 A.J. Green 27.4 14
2 Tyler Lockett 23.5 13
3 Mike Williams 19.9 15
4 Quez Watkins 19.8 16
5 Ja’Marr Chase 18.8 24
6 Cedrick Wilson Jr. 18.3 16
7 Kendrick Bourne 18.2 13
8 Justin Jefferson 17.4 36
9 Tee Higgins 17.0 15
10 Cooper Kupp 16.3 31
11 Christian Kirk 16.2 14
12 Brandon Aiyuk 16.1 14
13 Brandin Cooks 15.8 29
14 D.K. Metcalf 15.8 19
15 Mike Evans 15.5 20
16 Marquez Callaway 15.3 17
17 Michael Pittman Jr. 15.0 25
18 Chase Claypool 14.5 21
19 Tyreek Hill 14.3 30
20 Marvin Jones 14.3 16

Many of those wideouts with the highest yards-per-catch also didn’t total that many, so it is even more impressive when a high-volume receiver also does the most with their catches while being the primary focus of the secondary. Ja’Marr Chase (18.8), Justin Jefferson (17.4), Cooper Kupp (16.3) and Brandin Cooks (15.8) shined on third down with plenty of yards.

Tyreek Hill (14.3) was surprisingly low in this metric, given his tremendous speed.  A.J. Green (27.4), Tyler Lockett (23.5), Mike Williams (19.9), and Quez Watkins (19.8) were all so effective that it’s a surprise that they didn’t record more third-down receptions.

Third-down success rate

Wide Receiver Success Third Downs First Downs YPC TD
1 Mike Evans 100% 20 20 15.5 6
2 Marvin Jones 100% 16 16 14.3 2
3 Mike Williams 100% 15 15 19.9 3
4 Brandon Aiyuk 100% 14 14 16.1 3
5 A.J. Green 100% 14 14 27.4 1
6 Tyreek Hill 93% 30 28 14.3 3
7 Tee Higgins 93% 15 14 17.0 0
8 Stefon Diggs 91% 23 21 12.0 5
9 Justin Jefferson 86% 36 31 17.4 7
10 Tyler Lockett 85% 13 11 23.5 3
11 Robert Woods 85% 13 11 12.5 1
12 D.K. Metcalf 84% 19 16 15.8 2
13 Cooper Kupp 84% 31 26 16.3 2
14 Brandin Cooks 83% 29 24 15.8 5
15 Allen Robinson 82% 17 14 12.9 1
16 Cedrick Wilson Jr. 81% 16 13 18.3 3
17 Keenan Allen 81% 31 25 13.4 2
18 D.J. Moore 79% 24 19 13.8 1
19 N Westbrook-Ikhine 79% 14 11 13.9 2
20 Christian Kirk 79% 14 11 16.2 4
21 Odell Beckham Jr. 79% 14 11 11.7 2
22 Michael Pittman Jr. 76% 25 19 15.0 2
23 Quez Watkins 75% 16 12 19.8 1
24 DeVonta Smith 75% 16 12 13.5 3
25 Cole Beasley 75% 16 12 10.0 1
26 Jaylen Waddle 74% 31 23 8.8 2
27 Davante Adams 74% 31 23 13.0 3
28 Tyler Boyd 73% 22 16 12.5 2
29 Chase Claypool 71% 21 15 14.5 1
30 CeeDee Lamb 71% 17 12 13.4 3
31 Marquez Callaway 71% 17 12 15.3 4
32 Kendrick Bourne 69% 13 9 18.2 2
33 Tim Patrick 69% 13 9 12.9 0
34 Laviska Shenault Jr. 68% 19 13 11.3 0
35 A.J. Brown 68% 22 15 10.9 1
36 Ja’Marr Chase 67% 24 16 18.8 3
37 Darnell Mooney 67% 18 12 8.7 0
38 Chris Godwin 65% 20 13 9.0 2
39 Amari Cooper 64% 14 9 14.1 2
40 Diontae Johnson 63% 30 19 13.1 3
41 Russell Gage 61% 23 14 11.9 1
42 Adam Humphries 60% 15 9 8.6 0
43 Amon-Ra St. Brown 58% 24 14 9.4 2
44 Adam Thielen 58% 19 11 9.3 3
45 K.J. Osborn 56% 18 10 11.5 1
46 Hunter Renfrow 55% 33 18 10.1 3
47 Ray-Ray McCloud 50% 14 7 8.0 0
48 Marquise Brown 43% 21 9 9.2 2
49 Rondale Moore 40% 15 6 6.8 0

There were only 23 running backs that were successful at least half of their third-down attempts but 47 wide receivers topped the mark. There’s no arguing that wideouts were the most relied upon for getting third-down conversions.

It’s a but surprising that there were five wideouts that gained a first down on every third-down catch, but only Mike Evans was the top wide receiver for his team. Marvin Jones, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, and A.J. Green were not the biggest weapons for their respective offenses and yet each time they caught a pass on third down – it mattered.

The elite wideouts were well represented in the metric, but the surprises were Robert Woods (85%), Allen Robinson (82%), Cedrick Wilson (81% replacing Michael Gallup), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (79%), and Quez Watkins (75%). Their impact was higher than their annual production may suggest.

The success rate tended to be lower for most of those with a higher volume of catches in offenses that didn’t throw as well. But there is a story to tell on each of these wide receivers.

Kings of third down: Running Backs

The best running backs on third down.

Want to know who is really a third-down back? That guy who has to keep the drive alive as the most reliable weapon for that play? Some of the names will surprise, but this shows every third-down attempt made by a running back that had at least ten attempts during the season. Overall, the players with the most third-down plays were Najee Harris (43), Jonathan Taylor (40), and Ezekiel Elliott (38) but let’s take a look at how they broke down.

Below are the Top-20 in the category considering the 44 running backs with least ten third-down attempts. This is an interesting and relative measurement as to how reliable and successful running backs were for their team as they strived to keep offensive drives alive. Plays resulting in touchdowns on third down were counted as a first down since they were the most successful conclusion to a play.

Third-down rushes

Third Down Runs Carries First Downs
1 James Conner 32 18
2 Jonathan Taylor 31 20
3 Antonio Gibson 28 16
4 Ezekiel Elliott 27 18
5 Javonte Williams 23 13
6 Najee Harris 22 12
7 Rex Burkhead 21 13
8 Sony Michel 21 8
9 D’Andre Swift 21 6
10 Dalvin Cook 19 7
11 Brandon Bolden 19 6
12 Alvin Kamara 19 5
13 AJ Dillon 17 12
14 Jamaal Williams 17 11
15 David Montgomery 17 8
16 Leonard Fournette 16 12
17 Saquon Barkley 15 7
18 Joe Mixon 15 6
19 Darrell Henderson 15 5
20 Devontae Booker 14 8

James Conner was expected to be the No. 2 back in Arizona but was given the most rushing attempts on third down of any back. Jonathan Taylor naturally shines in this category and it’s encouraging to see that Javonte Williams was the preferred rusher on third downs for the Broncos. This also indicates how more complex offenses have become, with running backs averaging fewer than two such plays per game at most.

And it also points at how committee backfields spread out their workloads, with surprisingly high ranks for Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, Brandon Bolden and Jamaal Williams. Of course, third downs are very often passing downs, and these stats only reflect totals without considering games missed due to injury. But these are how often a back ran the ball on third down.

Third-down yards-per-carry

Yards Per Carry YPC Carries
1 Chase Edmonds 12.9 11
2 Kareem Hunt 8.3 11
3 Travis Homer 8.3 8
4 D’Andre Swift 7.3 21
5 Aaron Jones 7.3 8
6 Dalvin Cook 6.8 19
7 Javonte Williams 6.7 23
8 D’Ernest Johnson 6.7 14
9 Ty Johnson 6.6 8
10 Michael Carter 6.3 7
11 Devontae Booker 6.2 14
12 Kenneth Gainwell 6.1 13
13 Leonard Fournette 5.5 16
14 Alvin Kamara 4.6 19
15 David Johnson 4.4 9
16 Ezekiel Elliott 4.3 27
17 Mike Davis 4.0 7
18 James Robinson 3.8 10
19 Brandon Bolden 3.8 19
19 Jonathan Taylor 3.8 31
19 Najee Harris 3.8 22

The yards-per-carry can reflect how many yards there were to go for a first down and the infamous “run the ball on third-and-18” does apply. D’Andre Swift (7.3) and Javonte Williams (6.7) were the best with over 20 carries.  Several “no names” like Travis Homer, Ty Johnson, Mike Davis appear, but they all had low carries to judge.

Third-down rushing success

Made First Down Success % First Downs Carries
1 Aaron Jones 88% 7 8
2 J.D. McKissic 86% 6 7
3 Chase Edmonds 82% 9 11
4 Leonard Fournette 75% 12 16
5 Michael Carter 71% 5 7
6 AJ Dillon 71% 12 17
7 Melvin Gordon 70% 7 10
8 Kenneth Gainwell 69% 9 13
9 Ezekiel Elliott 67% 18 27
10 Christian McCaffrey 67% 4 6
11 Jamaal Williams 65% 11 17
12 Jonathan Taylor 65% 20 31
13 Tony Pollard 63% 5 8
14 Rex Burkhead 62% 13 21
15 James Robinson 60% 6 10
16 Miles Sanders 60% 6 10
17 Darrel Williams 58% 7 12
18 Antonio Gibson 57% 16 28
19 Devontae Booker 57% 8 14
20 Mike Davis 57% 4 7

Aaron Jones (88%) was the best at converting third-down runs, but AJ Dillon (71%) was also effective which indicates the strength of the Green Bay offensive line. The most successful rushers on third down were mostly those with fewer attempts. Ezekiel Elliott had a down year but was still the most successful rusher of those with higher attempts. J.D. McKissic surprises with 86% of his seven rushes gaining a first down. Antonio Gibson (57%) was also Top-20 indicating the Commanders blocking was better than expected this year.

Third-down receptions

This only counted catches, not targets. In fairness, many if not most incompletions to running backs are the quarterback throwing the ball away. So only receptions were considered.

 Receptions Catches First Downs
1 Najee Harris 21 9
2 Brandon Bolden 18 10
3 Austin Ekeler 15 5
4 J.D. McKissic 15 6
5 D’Andre Swift 13 8
6 Ty Johnson 13 8
7 Melvin Gordon 13 4
8 Javonte Williams 13 5
9 Mike Davis 12 4
10 Aaron Jones 12 3
11 Cordarrelle Patterson 12 8
12 David Johnson 12 5
13 Rex Burkhead 12 5
14 Ameer Abdullah 11 7
15 Ezekiel Elliott 11 7
16 Chase Edmonds 11 3
17 Myles Gaskin 10 6
18 Alvin Kamara 10 3
19 David Montgomery 10 5
20 Christian McCaffrey 10 7

This is where the third-down backs should shine. But Najee Harris dominated the category and yet had  far more rushes than the others. Javonte Williams did well as a third-down rusher and split 26 catches with Melvin Gordon, which shows where the passes end up on third down in Denver. Still, only Harris and Bolden averaged more than one per game.

Third-down yards-per-catch

Yards Per Catch YPC Catches
1 James Conner 17.8 5
2 Darrel Williams 13.5 8
3 Joe Mixon 13.5 6
4 Jonathan Taylor 12.8 9
5 Cordarrelle Patterson 12.2 12
6 Michael Carter 12.0 3
7 Brandon Bolden 10.6 18
8 J.D. McKissic 10.5 15
9 Travis Homer 10.0 9
10 Ty Johnson 9.7 13
11 Devontae Booker 9.6 9
12 Ameer Abdullah 9.5 11
13 D’Andre Swift 9.3 13
14 Austin Ekeler 9.3 15
15 David Montgomery 8.4 10
16 Dalvin Cook 8.4 5
17 Miles Sanders 8.4 5
18 Javonte Williams 8.2 13
19 Ezekiel Elliott 7.9 11
20 Tony Pollard 7.7 7
21 Christian McCaffrey 7.7 10

James Conner shows his worth to the Cardinals in many metrics, and while he only had five catches on third down, he made the most of them. He averaged over ten yards per catch in five different matchups. Jonathan Taylor did well despite being the focus of most opposing defenses regardless of down or distance. The Patriot backfield was very well represented in all of the metrics since their passing scheme was so short in most weeks, and that’s likely to recede for 2022 as Mac Jones throws more downfield.

Third-down reception success

Made First Down success % First Downs Catches
1 James Conner 100% 5 5
2 Antonio Gibson 100% 3 3
3 Devonta Freeman 75% 3 4
4 Christian McCaffrey 70% 7 10
5 Joe Mixon 67% 4 6
6 Cordarrelle Patterson 67% 8 12
7 Ezekiel Elliott 64% 7 11
8 Ameer Abdullah 64% 7 11
9 Ty Johnson 62% 8 13
10 D’Andre Swift 62% 8 13
11 Myles Gaskin 60% 6 10
12 Dalvin Cook 60% 3 5
13 Kenneth Gainwell 57% 4 7
14 Brandon Bolden 56% 10 18
15 Devontae Booker 56% 5 9
16 Travis Homer 56% 5 9
17 Darrel Williams 50% 4 8
18 David Montgomery 50% 5 10
19 Leonard Fournette 50% 3 6
20 Kareem Hunt 50% 3 6
20 Saquon Barkley 50% 1 2

Half of the NFL teams had a running back with over 50% success when catching a third-down pass. James Conner and Antonio Gibson had minimal catches but gained a first on each. Gibson was expected to play a far larger role as a receiver in 2021 than he did, but this says they under-used him to be sure. None of the Top-20 had more than ten first downs as a receiver, but this metric says as much about the offensive scheme as it does the player. Plenty of the names here had only minor fantasy value at best.

Third-down overall

This is the “Big Daddy Ranking” for how successful running backs were combining rushes and receptions on third down.

Player Success % Total Thirds Total Firsts Catches First Downs Carries First Downs
1 Christian McCaffrey 69% 16 11 10 7 6 4
2 Leonard Fournette 68% 22 15 6 3 16 12
3 AJ Dillon 67% 18 12 1 0 17 12
4 Ezekiel Elliott 66% 38 25 11 7 27 18
5 Kenneth Gainwell 65% 20 13 7 4 13 9
6 James Conner 62% 37 23 5 5 32 18
7 Antonio Gibson 61% 31 19 3 3 28 16
8 Jamaal Williams 60% 20 12 3 1 17 11
9 Michael Carter 60% 10 6 3 1 7 5
10 Jonathan Taylor 58% 40 23 9 3 31 20
11 Cordarrelle Patterson 57% 21 12 12 8 9 4
12 Ty Johnson 57% 21 12 13 8 8 4
13 Devontae Booker 57% 23 13 9 5 14 8
14 Darrel Williams 55% 20 11 8 4 12 7
15 Rex Burkhead 55% 33 18 12 5 21 13
16 J.D. McKissic 55% 22 12 15 6 7 6
17 Chase Edmonds 55% 22 12 11 3 11 9
18 Tony Pollard 53% 15 8 7 3 8 5
19 Kareem Hunt 53% 17 9 6 3 11 6
20 Javonte Williams 50% 36 18 13 5 23 13
21 Myles Gaskin 50% 24 12 10 6 14 6
22 Aaron Jones 50% 20 10 12 3 8 7
23 Ameer Abdullah 50% 16 8 11 7 5 1
24 Najee Harris 49% 43 21 21 9 22 12
25 David Montgomery 48% 27 13 10 5 17 8
26 Melvin Gordon 48% 23 11 13 4 10 7
27 Joe Mixon 48% 21 10 6 4 15 6
28 Saquon Barkley 47% 17 8 2 1 15 7
29 Travis Homer 47% 17 8 9 5 8 3
30 Miles Sanders 47% 15 7 5 1 10 6
31 James Robinson 47% 15 7 5 1 10 6
32 Chuba Hubbard 45% 20 9 6 1 14 8
33 Brandon Bolden 43% 37 16 18 10 19 6
34 Mike Davis 42% 19 8 12 4 7 4
35 Dalvin Cook 42% 24 10 5 3 19 7
36 D’Andre Swift 41% 34 14 13 8 21 6
37 Josh Jacobs 38% 16 6 4 0 12 6
38 Sony Michel 36% 22 8 1 0 21 8
39 D’Ernest Johnson 36% 22 8 8 3 14 5
40 Devonta Freeman 33% 15 5 4 3 11 2
41 Darrell Henderson 29% 17 5 2 0 15 5
42 Austin Ekeler 29% 24 7 15 5 9 2
43 David Johnson 29% 21 6 12 5 9 1
44 Alvin Kamara 28% 29 8 10 3 19 5

These were the 44 running backs with at least ten attempts on third down. Some running backs didn’t reach ten due to injury. Some reached ten while filling in for better running backs who missed time injured. But this is what third-down looked like for running backs in the NFL in 2021.

The Good – Christian McCaffrey is such a force when he is healthy. Ezekiel Elliott seemed less effective this year, but not on third down. Jonathan Taylor was the top running back for 2021 and showed up with 58% success on third down. Most of the top backs did well in this overall measurement that yields encouragement for this season for AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, Michael Carter, and Leonard Fournette where ever he ends up.  Kenneth Gainwell and Jamaal Williams were surprisingly effective in their respective roles in committee backfields. The expectation was that the top fantasy backs would be at the top, but the Top-20 was chock-full of lesser players with marginal fantasy value. It speaks to the continued division of duties in backfields, along with the effects of injuries and COVID-19.

The Bad – Alvin Kamara – are you okay? The Saints entered the year with one of the best offensive lines, but he was only successful on 28% of his third-down attempts. Austin Ekeler had a fine year for fantasy but just wasn’t that good on third down on a team that featured a very capable passing game to concern the opposing defense. Each running back had a unique situation and their success is still dependent on the entire offense doing their job. Dalvin Cook (42%), Josh Jacobs (38%) and D’Andre Swift (41%) were all highly rated backs entering 2021 and just didn’t fare as well on third down as most other starting running backs.

The Interesting – It may be overly optimistic to make any hard and fast conclusions about these running backs, but it is one more piece of information to throw in to each players’ bucket of characteristics. Here are a few of the questions that this spawns for me – you might find others as well.

James Conner – He’s only 26 and a free agent. He outperformed Chase Edmonds in every measurement, and even more so here. He was in a “pass first” offense but was effective rushing and receiving on third down. The Edmonds experiment is over, what will the Cards do?

Leonard Fournette – He’s only 27 and a free agent.  He was already the most productive back on the market and second only to Christian McCaffrey on third down. The Bucs are undergoing a change in 2022 anyway, but Fournette’s outlook seems bright regardless of where he ends up.

Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders – The success of Gainwell (65%) over Miles Sanders (47%) was maybe the biggest surprise. What will Year 2 under HC Nick Sirianni look like?

Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift – The first season for HC Dan Campbell was hoped to unleash Swift more, but both he and Williams missed three games. And the backfield overall was split. Williams was effective on third down (60%) but Swift (41%) lagged on his 34 attempts as opposed to the 20 for Williams. Can Swift justify being more than just a busy third-down back? He didn’t last year.

Michael Carter – He squeaked in with only ten third-down attempts but was successful on 60% while a rookie on a very bad offense. And behind one of the worst lines in the NFL. Hard to expect much with the Jets in a perpetual cycle of rebuilding, but has he earned a bigger role this year as the most effective rusher and Tevin Coleman likely gone? Then again, Ty Johnson (57%) was nearly as effective and had double the third-down attempts.

Third down is a critical part of all offensive drives and running backs tend to be the most relied on for most NFL offenses. But this is evaluating only one or two plays per game for the listed backs. It is an interesting measurement, but certainly not the only one or even the most important. But the importance of third-down success is hard to overvalue.

Kings of third down: Quarterbacks

The best quarterbacks on third down.

The most critical play of any offensive series is third down. That’s when you either proceed down the field by making a first down, score a touchdown, or fail and force the offense to either punt or attempt a field goal. There are many  variables on third down with distance and game situation, so only consider the higher level generalities.

For quarterbacks, let break it down a bit and then give it an all-over view. The following stats count the third downs that each player participated and their results. The first down stats include plays that scored touchdowns as they all gained yardage that would have been a first down.

Third-down Rushing

QB – 10+   Attempts Success First Downs Att Yds/Att TD
Ryan Tannehill 82% 14 17 5.0 3
Teddy Bridgewater 80% 8 10 5.3 1
Patrick Mahomes 77% 10 13 8.5 0
Baker Mayfield 75% 12 16 5.9 1
Jimmy Garoppolo 73% 11 15 1.9 1
Joe Burrow 70% 7 10 5.9 0
Josh Allen 70% 23 33 8.2 3
Russell Wilson 67% 10 15 5.3 1
Jalen Hurts 67% 22 33 6.8 2
Tom Brady 64% 7 11 3.8 0
Justin Herbert 62% 13 21 7.1 0
Derek Carr 55% 6 11 3.5 0
Sam Darnold 53% 8 15 4.0 2
Carson Wentz 50% 7 14 4.7 1
Kyler Murray 50% 8 16 6.4 1
Lamar Jackson 50% 13 26 5.4 1
Mac Jones 50% 8 16 2.9 0
Justin Fields 47% 9 19 7.1 0
Trevor Lawrence 45% 10 22 5.1 1
Tua Tagovailoa 41% 7 17 4.7 0
Daniel Jones 36% 4 11 4.5 0
Taylor Heinicke 36% 5 14 5.2 0
Matt Ryan 29% 4 14 1.9 0
Dak Prescott 18% 2 11 3.9 0

Notable is that the two quarterbacks with the highest yards per attempt on third downs were Patrick Mahomes (8.5) and Josh Allen (8.2) though Allen led the league with third-down runs (23), followed by Jalen Hurts (22). It is a bit of a surprise that Lamar Jackson was only successful on 50% of his attempts and Dak Prescott’s lack of rushing in 2021 was evident on his bottom rankings on successful runs on third down. For the most part, there were only a couple of quarterbacks that averaged more than one per game.

Third-down passing

Player Success First Downs Cmp Att TD Int Sack
Matthew Stafford 52% 74 91 141 12 7 14
Patrick Mahomes 51% 75 97 147 13 8 12
Justin Herbert 47% 79 105 169 13 5 10
Joe Burrow 47% 61 95 131 8 5 21
Tua Tagovailoa 45% 45 59 99 6 4 12
Jimmy Garoppolo 45% 49 69 108 6 4 12
Tom Brady 45% 73 100 163 17 3 10
Josh Allen 45% 69 86 155 15 6 11
Mac Jones 44% 59 85 133 8 5 13
Aaron Rodgers 44% 59 84 135 13 2 12
Dak Prescott 43% 63 90 145 12 2 12
Matt Ryan 43% 67 101 155 8 3 17
Kyler Murray 43% 48 71 112 11 2 11
Ryan Tannehill 41% 66 109 161 7 10 19
Kirk Cousins 40% 66 100 163 13 3 14
Derek Carr 40% 57 87 143 7 6 18
Russell Wilson 40% 41 53 103 8 3 16
Ben Roethlisberger 39% 70 117 181 8 4 11
Jalen Hurts 38% 41 58 108 5 3 12
Carson Wentz 38% 52 77 137 10 1 14
Davis Mills 36% 40 70 110 6 5 15
Daniel Jones 36% 35 55 97 2 0 9
Lamar Jackson 36% 31 49 86 5 6 14
Trevor Lawrence 36% 55 78 153 2 3 12
Teddy Bridgewater 35% 42 80 121 6 2 9
Taylor Heinicke 34% 44 71 128 6 6 12
Baker Mayfield 34% 34 50 99 3 5 17
Zach Wilson 34% 34 52 100 3 3 23
Jared Goff 34% 38 72 113 4 3 16
Sam Darnold 33% 36 62 108 2 3 15
Justin Fields 28% 21 38 74 1 6 12

If you need more proof as to the importance of the quarterback, consider that 12 of the Top-14 most successful passers on third down were all in the playoffs. If you’re trying to find the rookies, just look at the bottom. Tom Brady (17) and Josh Allen (15) were the best at scoring a touchdown on third down and not needing to kick a field goal.

The percentage of passing success is lower than rushing because the yards to gain were much more. There are also fewer rushing than passing attempts on third downs involving quarterbacks.

It should also be noted that while Joe Burrow managed success on over half of his third downs, his 21 sacks were second only to Zach Wilson (23). An upgrade to the blocking might make Zach Wilson flirt with being average, but the same improvement could vault Burrow into the top of this measurement.

It is also interesting that while Ryan Tannehill was successful running on third downs (while the defense followed Derrick Henry), but he wasn’t nearly as successful passing the ball. This single-play measurement is the best at determining the effectiveness of a quarterback.

Third-down overall

QB – 90+   Third Downs Success Third Downs First Downs Passes Comp First Downs Runs First Downs
Patrick Mahomes 53% 160 85 147 97 75 13 10
Matthew Stafford 52% 148 77 141 91 74 7 3
Josh Allen 49% 188 92 155 86 69 33 23
Jimmy Garoppolo 49% 123 60 108 69 49 15 11
Justin Herbert 48% 190 92 169 105 79 21 13
Joe Burrow 48% 141 68 131 95 61 10 7
Tom Brady 46% 174 80 163 100 73 11 7
Mac Jones 45% 149 67 133 85 59 16 8
Ryan Tannehill 45% 178 80 161 109 66 17 14
Tua Tagovailoa 45% 116 52 99 59 45 17 7
Aaron Rodgers 45% 141 63 135 84 59 6 4
Jalen Hurts 45% 141 63 108 58 41 33 22
Kyler Murray 44% 128 56 112 71 48 16 8
Russell Wilson 43% 118 51 103 53 41 15 10
Matt Ryan 42% 169 71 155 101 67 14 4
Dak Prescott 42% 156 65 145 90 63 11 2
Derek Carr 41% 154 63 143 87 57 11 6
Kirk Cousins 40% 167 67 163 100 66 4 1
Baker Mayfield 40% 115 46 99 50 34 16 12
Lamar Jackson 39% 112 44 86 49 31 26 13
Ben Roethlisberger 39% 184 72 181 117 70 3 2
Carson Wentz 39% 151 59 137 77 52 14 7
Teddy Bridgewater 38% 131 50 121 80 42 10 8
Trevor Lawrence 37% 175 65 153 78 55 22 10
Davis Mills 37% 116 43 110 70 40 6 3
Daniel Jones 36% 108 39 97 55 35 11 4
Sam Darnold 36% 123 44 108 62 36 15 8
Zach Wilson 35% 109 38 100 52 34 9 4
Taylor Heinicke 35% 142 49 128 71 44 14 5
Jared Goff 33% 117 39 113 72 38 4 1
Justin Fields 32% 93 30 74 38 21 19 9

Sort of telling that the four quarterbacks that were in the Conference Championships were also the best four on third down. This also shows the variation between what makes an NFL quarterback valuable to his team versus his fantasy value. Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson were much better fantasy starters than they were third-down quarterbacks.

Mac Jones further shows his value as a rookie placing at No. 8 in this third-down metric. Losing his offensive coordinator probably won’t help this year, but the Patriots’ system will remain at least in part.

Kyler Murray did not fare as well here, but he was injured along with many of his teammates this year. But the young guns of the NFL all show up with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow well represented.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 17

Reflecting on 2021 fantasy breakouts, disappointments and more.

As we enter championship weekend in the majority of leagues, it’s time to take look back and analyze the fantasy year that was.

It was a season that saw Derrick Henry start strong — and division-rival Jonathan Taylor finish strong — as they ruled the running back ranks.

It was a season with an intriguing mix of fresh — and very familiar — faces populating the top 10 of fantasy quarterback rankings.

And it was a season where Cooper Kupp dominated the fantasy wide receiver field in record-setting fashion en route to the probable first wide receiver Triple Crown campaign (league leader in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns) since Steve Smith in 2005.

On the flip side, we had the usual allotment of brutal injuries, fantasy duds, and disappointments — not to mention an untimely rash of late-season COVID cases — which has derailed an untold number of well-laid draft plans and league championship runs.

It’s impossible to encapsulate all that went into fantasy 2021 — with a championship-round chapter yet to come — but we are looking at each of the four main fantasy positions this week and selecting a positional MVP, a surprise, and a disappointment for the season to date. All statistics and positional rankings are complete through play in Week 16.

Here we go, kicking things off as usual with our selections at …

Quarterback

Positional MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady likely won’t end up as the year’s highest-scoring fantasy QB, and his rushing numbers (28 carries-81 yards-2 touchdowns) are woefully behind the times in this era of highly coveted, dual-threat QBs who routinely tack on an extra 8-to-10 fantasy points to their weekly scores via their legs.

But Brady was pacing the league with 4,580 passing yards and 37 TD passes through Week 16 and ranked third with 397.10 fantasy points and an average of 26.5 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring) — all while leading the defending champion Bucs to an 11-4 record and their first NFC South title since 2007.

Oh, and you might have heard that Brady is doing so at the age of 44 — older than more than a third (12) of the league’s 32 head coaches.

Surprise standout: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

This second-year QB had his rookie year cut short (10 games total) by a devastating multi-ligament knee injury and was the 13th quarterback selected, on average, in fantasy drafts this past summer.

But on the wings of his semifinal-deciding 43.35-point outing Sunday in which he shredded the Baltimore Ravens for a franchise single-game-record 525 yards and four TD tosses, he ranks sixth at the position with 351.05 total fantasy points and 4,165 yards.

Burrow also is tied for seventh with 30 passing scores — while adding two more on the ground — and has teamed with three top-30 fantasy wide receivers to form one of the league’s most formidable aerial attacks.

Disappointment: The 2021 rookie class

Five quarterbacks were selected in the upper half of the first round of the NFL draft last spring, and over the summer, three of those QBs (No. 15 Trevor Lawrence, No. 18 Justin Fields and No. 19 Trey Lance) were selected among the top 20, on average, in fantasy drafts.

But the New England Patriots’ Mac Jones (20th with 248.95 points) is the only rookie QB currently in the top 20 in total fantasy points, but even he ranks 30th with an average of 16.6 fantasy points per game among QBs who have played in at least five contests.

Lawrence, meanwhile, is 22nd at the position with 239.35 total fantasy points and is followed by fellow rookies Fields (29th with 175.5 points), Zach Wilson (30th with 168.75) and Davis Mills (31st with 160.8).

Lance has totaled 49.4 points in five games — with 38.45 coming in back-to-back contests in Weeks 4 and 5 filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s only played five offensive snaps and hasn’t attempted a pass since then, though.

Altogether the five first-round rookie QBs and the third-rounder Mills, who’s started nine games for the Houston Texans) have combined to throw 53 TD passes and 61 interceptions while adding nine more combined TDs on the ground.

Rookie numbers to be sure, but certainly not usable outside of two-quarterback leagues.

Running back

Positional MVP: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The second-year Indy back enters Week 17 having scored 47.5 more PPR points than the next best fantasy running back (Austin Ekeler).

Only Henry, who played in eight games prior to a foot fracture, is averaging more fantasy points per contest (23.4) than Taylor’s 23.1.

Taylor, though, leads the league with 1,626 rushing yards, 1,962 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He enters fantasy championship weekend riding a streak of 12 straight games with at least 108 total yards or a touchdown, putting up at least 19.7 fantasy points in 11 of those 12 contests.

And to think there were still lingering doubts about Taylor entering Week 4 as he totaled only 32.1 fantasy points without a TD in his first three 2021 outings.

Fast forward three months, though, and the 22-year-old Taylor has established himself as the near-consensus No. 1 fantasy pick entering 2022.

Surprise standout: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

The list of 2021’s 10 highest-scoring fantasy running backs is comprised mainly of usual suspects and repeat performers, but the RB at No. 8 stands out from the rest.

It’s Patterson, the 30-year-old journeyman who’s been fantasy’s surprise breakout star playing on his fifth team in nine seasons.

His most recent two games (4.3 and 8.3 PPR points) have been two of his three worst of the season, but he has totaled 225.2 fantasy points on the year — an average of 16.1 per outing.

Entering 2021, Patterson hadn’t logged more than 85 touches or 149.7 fantasy points in any of his first eight seasons, but he’s handled a team-high 189 for the Falcons, including 49 receptions for 523 yards (second among RBs) and five TDs as he’s put his WR skills to good use in the backfield on a team that desperately needs offensive playmakers.

As a rusher, he’s shattered his previous career highs with 140 carries for 579 yards and six total TDs, making him the waiver-wire find of the fantasy season.

Disappointment: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

For the second straight season, Run CMC was the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick, and for the second consecutive year, he’s played less than half a season in a campaign wrecked by injuries.

After playing in only three contests a season ago, hamstring and ankle injuries limited McCaffrey to seven games this year before he finally landing on the injured reserve list after Week 12.

When he did play, McCaffrey flashed his elite RB1 skill set, catching 37 total passes and scoring 24.7 or more fantasy points in four of seven games. He averaged 18.2 PPR points per contest, ranking seventh at the position.

But 23 missed games over the last two seasons, unfortunately, will be the most notable number attached to McCaffrey entering drafts next offseason, and it will be interesting to see if he remains a sure-fire first-round fantasy pick.

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Wide receiver

Positional MVP: (Who else but) Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

With 132 receptions for 1,734 yards and 14 TDs on 177 targets, Kupp not only is in line for the rare WR Triple Crown, but with 389.4 PPR points to date, he’s only 24.7 points away from eclipsing Jerry Rice’s single-season WR fantasy record of 414, set in 1995.

Kupp has had at least seven receptions, 92 receiving yards and 16.2 fantasy points in 14 of 15 games, including a current run of 11 straight.

It’s left the fantasy competition in the dust.

Green Bay Packers standout Davante Adams has the second-most WR fantasy points with 302.2, but that trails Kupp by a whopping 87.2 points — basically equal to the point gap between the No. 12 fantasy wideout (Mike Evans) and the No. 46 wideout (Marquez Callaway).

Not bad for a wide receiver with a preseason ADP of 53.65 — 20th at the position.

Kupp is your overall 2021 fantasy MVP.

Surprise standout: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Drafted four or so rounds later than Kupp, on average, was Samuel, who was coming off an injury-addled 2020 sophomore season in which he totaled only 80.7 fantasy points in seven games.

Samuel sped past that total in Week 4 this season and hasn’t slowed down since, totaling 296.8 points so far to trail only Kupp, Adams and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson (297.1).

Samuel has reached elite WR1 territory in unconventional fashion as he ranks 20th in receptions (70) among wide receivers, but has rushed the ball a position-high 44 times for 301 yards and seven TDs — adding to his 1,247 yards and five scores as a pass-catcher.

Disappointment: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Robinson had a fourth-round ADP, 12th among wideouts, this summer as fantasy GMs expected 2020’s ninth-ranked wide receiver to pick up right where he left off.

Instead, Robinson is wrapping up the worst season of his career with all of 32 receptions for 353 yards and one TD on 56 targets, ranking 90th among wide receivers with 73.3 fantasy points.

So what’s happened?

Injuries/COVID-19 have cost Robinson five full games, and inefficiency has dogged him in the 10 contests he has played in in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack. His catch rate has fallen off more than 10 percentage points (57.1 from 67.5) from last season, and his yards per target average has sunk from 8.3 to 6.3.

He’s also been stuck on one TD grab since Week 2, and the majority of fantasy teams who spent a top four-round pick on Robinson have long since cut bait and moved on.

Tight end

Positional MVP: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews has put together one of the most impressive tight end fantasy stretch runs in recent memory with 29 receptions for 376 yards, four TDs and 80.6 fantasy points on 34 targets over the last three weeks, propelling a good number of his fantasy teams into the championship round.

He’s also done it largely with backup QBs Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson at the helm in place of the injured Lamar Jackson.

Andrews’ late-season surge has also boosted him to the top of the season-long fantasy tight end ranks with 265.7 total points — 27.7 more than second-place Travis Kelce.

Andrews, of course, leads the Ravens with 93 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine TDs — all career and 2021 tight end highs — and he’s opened up a serious debate on who should be the top tight end selected in fantasy drafts this coming offseason.

Surprise standouts: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills and Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Knox is tied with Andrews and the New England Patriots’ Hunter Henry for the positional lead with nine TD grabs — the main reason why the third-year Buffalo player ranks seventh among tight ends with 153.8 total fantasy points.

Knox entered 2021 with 52 career receptions for 676 yards and five TDs in 27 games over two seasons, but has 46 catches for 538 yards and the nine scores in 13 contests this season as the Bills’ surprising second-leading pass-catcher.

Schultz also has surprised as the Cowboys’ second-leading receiver with 69 receptions for 733 yards and six TDs on 91 targets. That’s good for 178.3 fantasy points, ranking only behind Andrews, Kelce (238 points) and San Francisco 49ers stud George Kittle (189.5).

That latter threesome all own top-five fantasy tight end ADPs while Shultz and Knox checked in at 35 and 28, respectively.

Disappointment: Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Waller, who had the second-highest tight end ADP this offseason, does rank fifth at the position with an average of 12.9 fantasy points per game, but he’s missed five contests, including the last four as he recovers from a Thanksgiving Day knee injury that originally wasn’t believed to be overly serious.

Perhaps it was just that Waller set the bar too high out of the gate with 26.5 fantasy points on 19 targets in Week 1. He’s topped 15 fantasy points only three times since then, though, and ranks 15th overall at the position with 129.3 total points on the season with still no indication if he’ll be available to tack on any more in the Raiders’ final two games.

Waller hasn’t been a fantasy disaster of the aforementioned Allen Robinson variety, but it’s certainly not the season fantasy GMs envisioned when they used a late second- or early third-round pick on the Vegas tight end.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 16

Making sense of Week 15 results and applying lessons to the rest of 2021.

So you weren’t facing Travis Kelce and survived your first-round playoff matchup.

Or, you could’ve started the likes of Tom Brady, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and Dawson Knox — who totaled a combined 27 fantasy points — and lived to tell about it.

Perhaps you were simply above the mess that was Week 15 and were one of the fortunate few top seeds who had an opening-week bye.

And maybe you had ridden a now-injured Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin or a slumping Dak Prescott or Saquon Barkley this far and now are in need of some bench or waiver-wire plug-in help for this week’s semifinals. Or, unfortunately with the untimely COVID-19 surge, there’s almost certain to be the need for additional roster and lineup alterations on the fly.

You’ve come to the right place.

This week’s TT&T looks at 10 of the surprise fantasy standouts from Week 15 and which of these upstart, Johnny-come-latelys you should — or shouldn’t — trust during the championship chase over the next couple weeks.

Here goes, kicking off with those Week 15 surprises that you should …

Get them into your lineups

Atlanta Falcons WR Russell Gage

Week 15: 11 targets-8 receptions-91 yards-TD for 23.1 total fantasy points (sixth among wide receivers through Monday in point-per-reception scoring).
Looking ahead: Gage has been anything but a one-week wonder. Since Week 12, Gage ranks fourth among wide receivers with 29 receptions and 347 yards, is tied for sixth with 36 targets and trails only Cooper Kupp, Hunter Renfrow and Justin Jefferson with 75.7 total fantasy points during that span. In short — in case you hadn’t noticed during the Falcons’ largely anonymous 6-8 season so far — Gage has stepped in for the departed Julio Jones and the on-leave Calvin Ridley as Matt Ryan’s go-to wideout and is producing WR1 numbers on a consistent basis. The Falcons do face the Buffalo Bills (fantasy’s toughest matchup for opposing fantasy wide receivers) in Week 17, but they do get the two-win Detroit Lions at home this coming weekend.

New Orleans Saints defense

Week 15: Four sacks, one interception and fumble recovery in Sunday night’s shocking shutout win over the hosting Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 8.0 total fantasy points (tied for fifth among team D/STs in Huddle Performance scoring).
Looking ahead: Barring a rash of return scores, we fully realize a fantasy defense most likely isn’t going to be the impetus for a fantasy league title, but the New Orleans D closes the regular season with the second-most favorable Week 16-18 slate (Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Falcons), with the first two of those three also at home, so definitely look to grab the defense that just blanked Brady and the league’s highest-scoring offense.

Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 15: 11 targets-8 receptions-90 yards-1 TD for 23.5 total fantasy points (fifth among wideouts through Monday)
Looking ahead: After averaging 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions over his first 11 games, this Lions rookie has had at least 11 targets and eight receptions in each of his last three contests. And since Week 13, St. Brown is second only to Jefferson (70.8) with 63.6 total PPR points, reeling in 26-of-35 targets for 249 yards and a pair of scores. Only Godwin and Jefferson have more targets (39), and only Godwin has more receptions (31) at the position during that span. With tight end T.J. Hockenson having missed the last two games and shelved for the season due to thumb surgery, St. Brown is the unquestioned No. 1 target in the Motor City and deserves a spot in fantasy lineups for any team manager uncertain about one’s starting wideouts.

Solid plug-in options

Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis

Week 15: 7 targets-5 receptions-85 yards-2 TDs for 25.5 total fantasy points (third among WRs).
Looking ahead: Davis got his second start of the season Sunday vs. the Carolina Panthers in place of the injured and inactive Emmanuel Sanders and played a season-high 90 percent of the offensive snaps. Among the Bills, only Cole Beasley (8) received more targets than Davis in the game, and the latter’s two touchdown receptions stretched his game streak with a TD to three. He has four total scoring grabs over that span. Sanders could be back any week, and in Week 16 the Bills do face the New England Patriots, the third-toughest fantasy matchup for opposing wide receivers. With the Pats likely to focus on taking away the Bills’ top pass-catching threat in WR Stefon Diggs, Davis should see some extra-favorable matchups again after already accounting for Buffalo’s lone TD in a 14-10 home loss to New England in cold and brutally blustery conditions in Week 13.

Miami Dolphins RB Duke Johnson

Week 15: 22 carries-107 yards-2 TDs; 1 target-1 reception-20 yards-1 TD (first among running backs through Monday with 25.70 fantasy points (PPR scoring)
Looking ahead: Long viewed as a underutilized asset by some, Johnson garnered one of the rare bell-cow workloads of his seven-year tenure Sunday, posting career highs in rushes (22), rushing yards (107), total touches (23) and total yards (127). But keep in mind this was with regular starter Myles Gaskin just coming off the COVID-19 list, and it was against the New York Jets, the most forgivable fantasy defense for opposing running backs in the league. So even if Johnson suddenly is the new lead back in Miami, fate would have it that no less than the top two toughest fantasy RB defenses await the next two weeks in the Saints and Tennessee Titans.

Detroit Lions RB Craig Reynolds

Week 15: 26 rushes-112 yards; 1 target-1 reception-5 yards for a total of 12.7 fantasy points (14th among running backs)
Looking ahead: With D’Andre Swift (shoulder) and Jamaal Williams (COVID-19 list) out the last two weeks, the unheralded Reynolds has not only emerged as the Lions’ lead back but has looked impressive in doing so, rushing for 195 yards on 37 carries and catching all three of his targets for 35 yards. Only league rushing leader Jonathan Taylor (170) has rushed for more yards than Reynolds in Week 15. The Lions’ immediate schedule is tasty as Detroit draws a pair of bottom-eight fantasy RB defenses (the Falcons and Seattle Seahawks) the next two weeks. So as long as Reynolds remains in the mix with Williams now activated and the slim chance Swift returns to a two-won team, he’s a plug-and-play RB2/flex option.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

Week 15: 22 rushes-86 yards-1 TD; 1 reception-10 yards for 16.6 total fantasy points (sixth among running backs)
Looking ahead: Amazingly, this marked Singletary’s high in rushing attempts and matched his best outing in terms of total touches in 42 career games. And it came in a contest where fellow RB Zack Moss was a healthy scratch and Matt Breida only logged only one rushing attempt, giving Singletary a 95.8 percent share of the backfield touches. Prior to this contest, no Bills running back had had more than 16 touches in a game, so perhaps this was an indication of the direction Buffalo wants to go as it entered a critical season-ending, four-game stretch with the AFC East title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed still within reach. The remaining itinerary is favorable as well with the Bills set to face the second-easiest Week 16-18 slate of opposing fantasy RB defenses. The key, though, will be the Bills sticking with Singletary as the lead back and getting him 15-plus opportunities.

Simply one-week wonders

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry

Week 15: 8 targets-6 receptions-77 yards-2 TDs for 25.7 total fantasy points (third among tight ends)
Looking ahead: This was Henry’s best fantasy outing in more than two seasons and marked only his fourth contest with 13-plus PPR points on the season and first since Week 10. The trouble is, Henry remains too reliant on TDs. He led all tight ends with nine receiving scores on the season through Monday’s games but ranked 19th in targets (58), 16th in receptions (41), and 16th in receiving yards (471). To further illustrate the point, New England rookie QB Mac Jones has thrown 18 TD passes on the season, and half of them have been caught by Henry. You may have struck fantasy gold with the Pats tight end in Week 15, but his other numbers indicate that you’re going to miss often more than you hit when streaming Henry.

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton

Week 15: 38 attempts-18 completions-156 yards-1 TD-1 interception; 15 rushes-71 yards-1 TD for a total of 24.9 fantasy points (fifth among QBs on the week).
Looking ahead: This was Cam’s second-best fantasy day since re-signing with the Panthers prior to Week 10, and his 15 rushing attempts and 71 rushing yards marked season highs. Newton, though, is still only completing 54.9 percent of his passes and hasn’t reached 190 aerial yards in any of his five outings and four starts this season. Carolina’s remaining schedule isn’t formidable from a fantasy standpoint as the Bucs (Week 16 & 18) and Saints (Week 17) both rank among the bottom third in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, but Newton is too over-reliant on his 32-year-old legs to be counted on anything more than an emergency QB1 starter or spot QB2 streamer.

Pittsburgh Steelers defense

Week 15: 4 sacks-3 fumble recoveries-1 interception for 12 total fantasy points (second among team D/STs on the week).
Looking ahead: The Steelers D certainly has brand recognition, especially with Defensive Player of the Year front-runner T.J. Watt headlining the unit. But “Steel City D” is more name than game this season, permitting the fourth-most yards (367.5) and 11th-most points (23.9) per game while ranking in a tie for 19th among fantasy defenses with an average of 5.4 fantasy points per outing. So don’t be fooled by the Steelers’ big game Sunday. It was against the turnover-prone Titans, who trail only the Jets (26) with 25 giveaways on the season. Much tougher matchups await the next two weeks in the fantasy playoffs as Pittsburgh faces the Chiefs, who have turned things around of late after a turnover-laden start, and the Cleveland Browns, who currently rank as the fifth-worst matchup for fantasy D/STs. Look elsewhere for a defensive team streamer.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 13

Breaking down playoff outlooks for struggling fantasy assets.

The 2021 fantasy football stretch run is upon us with two more regular-season weeks giving way to the start of the postseason in Week 15 in the majority of leagues.

Hopefully, most of your fantasy teams either have locked up a playoff berth or are about to. But if you need to win out to have a shot at one of the final postseason berths in your league (you can’t see it, of course, but I’m raising my hand here), you’re likely counting on several key players to reverse their recent fortunes or shed their disappointment labels just in time to save your season.

With that very scenario in mind, this week’s TT&T looks at some of fantasy’s most disappointing players of November (Weeks 9-12) and assesses their “hope” or “heartbreak” potential for December when we’re not only trying to qualify for the playoffs but make some noise once we get there.

Here goes, starting (as usual) at …

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

November’s numbers: After ranking as fantasy’s best quarterback over the season’s first eight weeks with 26 total touchdowns, five interceptions and an average of 27 fantasy points per game (performance PPR scoring), Brady averaged only 17.2 fantasy points during November (14th among QBs who played in multiple games) with five total TDs and four interceptions in three contests.

December’s outlook: Hope, most definitely

The Bucs rolled up 38 points Sunday in Indy, but touchdown fortune wasn’t with Brady as Tampa Bay scored four rushing TDs in the game after entering the day with eight in their first 10 contests.

Help also is on the way as wide receiver Antonio Brown is due back any week from the ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 4, and he and Brady can try to rekindle their strong connection, which produced four TD hookups in five games.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who only played six snaps in the Bucs’ six games from Weeks 4-10, also looks to be getting healthier at the right time as he had a season-high 123 receiving yards on seven receptions and 10 targets Sunday.

Combine those two with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the under-the-radar emergence of RB Leonard Fournette as a dangerous pass-catching back (tied for third among RBs with 51 receptions), and Brady’s weapons take a backseat to none.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: The Cincy sophomore averaged only 13.6 fantasy points (25th among QBs with multiple starts) with just three total TDs in his three contests this month after averaging 21.9 (10th among QBs) with 20 total TDs during the season’s first eight weeks.

December’s outlook: Hope

Running back Joe Mixon’s November tear (second among RBs with 352 rushing yards and six TDs during the month) has certainly cut into Burrow’s fantasy production, but with a more formidable slate rushing defenses awaiting the Bengals in December, Burrow likely will need to air it out more to keep Cincy in the AFC playoff picture.

Burrow is getting healthier as he moves further away from his 2020 knee injury, and his upper-level cast of weapons (WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and TE C.J. Uzomah) is still intact as well.

So don’t be surprised in the least to see a Burrow bounce-back next month.

Running backs

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

November’s numbers: Henderson totaled the 10th-most fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) among running backs through the season’s first eight weeks, averaging 17.5 points per outing. In his three games since, Henderson has totaled 34.2 points (11.4 per outing), which ranked 30th at the position in November. And that total was boosted significantly by his 17.3-point game Sunday afternoon in Green Bay.

December’s outlook: Hope

Henderson remains one of the league’s true No. 1 backs, having played 68.8 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season and averaging a healthy 16.9 touches per game.

The Rams’ passing game, meanwhile, is showing late-season signs of slippage and wear and tear, so don’t be surprised if the Rams lean on Henderson even more down the stretch as they look to right themselves from their current three-game losing streak.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

November’s numbers: Jones returned from a one-game, knee-injury absence Sunday but only had 23 yards on 10 carries without a reception in the team’s 36-28 win over the Rams. Emerging backup A.J. Dillon, meanwhile, totaled 90 yards and a TD on a career-high 25 touches. In three November games, Jones totaled 20.2 PPR points (6.7 per outing) after averaging 18.1 (eighth among RBs) over the Pack’s first eight games.

December’s outlook: More heartbreak

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Green Bay has its bye in Week 13, which does provide extra recovery time for Jones, but it’s brutal timing for Jones’ fantasy teams desperately in need of a win this coming weekend.

Even more concerning, though, is Dillon’s emergence. While Jones was averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game in November (48th among RBs), Dillon was averaging 18.9 (eighth at the position) while averaging 19.3 touches per outing, including 17 total receptions (fifth among RBs) for 171 yards and a TD.

The cat is now out of the bag, and it looks to be a full-blown RB timeshare now in Green Bay. That’s less than ideal for those who were counting on a return to RB1 production down the stretch for Jones.

Wide receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: Over the first eight weeks, this Cincinnati rookie was on a record pace with 38 receptions for 786 yards and seven TDs on 60 targets — good for 159.3 total PPR points and an average of 19.9 per game, ranking fifth among wideouts. His three contests since Halloween, though, has brought a frightening drop-off with 12 catches for 120 yards and one TD on 22 targets — good for all of 30.8 fantasy points and an average of only 10.3 per game (40th at the position).

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Has Chase hit the proverbial rookie wall or have opposing defenses simply caught up?

It sure looks to be some of both as Chase’s targets-per-game average has only declined slightly from 7.5 to 7.3 over the two spans, while his average yards per catch (20.7 to 10.1) and target (13.1 to 5.5) have fallen off precipitously.

But like his quarterback’s December forecast above, there is fantasy optimism. Just realize that WR2 production is likely now the ceiling rather than a sudden return to the elite WR1 numbers Chase was putting up with regularity over the first half of the season.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

November’s numbers: Cooks on Sunday had his best fantasy showing (13.5 points) in a month, but that it only ranked 24th at the position in Week 12 speaks volumes about how disappointing November has been for the Texans’ top fantasy asset. In three games during the month, Cooks has only caught 11-of-21 targets for 119 yards and one TD for a total of 28.9 fantasy points or an average of 9.6 per game (43rd among WRs). In Weeks 1-8, Cooks averaged 15.3 fantasy points per contest to rank 23rd at the position — and that was with struggling rookie Davis Mills starting six of those eight games.

December’s outlook: Slim hope

You would think the 2-9 Texans will need to throw plenty to stay in games down the stretch, but through Week 12, the Texans were averaging only 31.6 passing attempts (27th in the league) and 20.5 completions (26th) per game.

Cooks, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 targets, 3.7 receptions and 39.7 yards per outing over his last three games, but we (hopefully) should see those averages bump up slightly to WR3 levels during the coming stretch run.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

November’s numbers: Just when Metcalf’s fantasy general managers were convinced things couldn’t get any worse for the third-year wide receiver, along came Monday night’s game in Washington in which he finished with one reception for 13 yards on four targets — his worst fantasy outing (2.3 points) over the last two seasons. That gave him a total of eight catches for 70 yards and no TDs for 15 fantasy points in three November games — a far cry from the dominant wideout who ranked 10th at the position with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing over his first eight games.

December’s outlook: WR2 hope

At a shocking 3-8 — the second-worst record in the NFC — the Seahawks appear headed toward the second playoff-less campaign in QB Russell Wilson’s 10 seasons with the franchise.

Could Seattle throttle things down once it’s officially eliminated from playoff contention? Perhaps, but not likely.

Despite the brutal game for Metcalf on Monday, Wilson did easily look his best since returning from his finger injury absence in Week 10.

And while a return to WR1 production over the next five games is a long shot for Metcalf, it’s not hard to envision a significant reversal of fantasy fortune for the freakishly talented wideout in the coming weeks with a near-full-capacity Wilson and nothing left to lose for the Seahawks.

Tight ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

November’s numbers: The fourth-overall pick in last spring’s draft looked like he was going to shatter the struggling-rookie-tight-end stigma after averaging 12.5 PPR points over his first eight games. But he’s followed that up with a 7.4 average in November (21st among tight ends), catching only 12 of 25 targets for 177 yards and no TDs in four games.

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Pitts still easily leads the Falcons and ranks sixth among all tight ends with 75 targets, and is 661 receiving yards trail only Travis Kelce (821) and Mark Andrews (761) at the position.

If his relatively low catch percentage (60.0) improves at all while his volume more or less holds steady and his TD production improves (he remains stuck on one), Pitts will jump back into the TE1 conversation real quick.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 12

Fantasy football buy-low and sell-high trade deadline.

We have hit Thanksgiving Week, and along with the turkey, stuffing and sharing the table with obnoxious relatives, the week brings us the trade deadline in a good number of fantasy leagues.

So while you’re putting together the perfect relish tray and agonizing over who’s going to have to sit next to Uncle Earl, hopefully you’re also concocting some personally beneficial late-November fantasy deals — i.e. shipping off some sell-high players and/or acquiring some buy-low targets.

With those ideal trade scenarios in mind, this week’s TT&T is highlighting a prime buy-low and sell-high candidate at each of the four main fantasy positions. We’ll also throw in a few other names as well to help get your rosters in the best possible shape for the final fantasy playoff push.

One quick qualifier: These trade and player suggestions obviously are not one size fits all as they depend largely on the overall context of each roster, league and scoring format.

Here goes, starting (as usual) at …

Quarterbacks

Buy low: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott has slipped to ninth in the fantasy QB rankings, averaging 24.8 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring), coming off two of this three worst outings of the season, including Sunday’s season-low 4.64-point dud in Kansas City.

But better times appear to be ahead.

Prescott’s top two wide receivers, Amari Cooper (COVID-19 protocol) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion), likely will both be out Thanksgiving Day, but should be there for the remainder of the schedule. And valuable left tackle Tyron Smith figures to be back Thursday following a three-game ankle-injury absence.

And then there’s the Cowboys’ stretch-run schedule.

Dallas’ Week 12-17 slate, which will take us through the fantasy championships in the majority of leagues, is the second-most favorable itinerary for fantasy quarterbacks, according to The Huddle’s highly useful Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool. That includes two matchups in a three-week span (Weeks 14 and 16) with the Washington Football Team, which is surrendering a league-most 25.5 points, on average, to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.

So if the Dak fantasy general manager in your league is distraught and ready to deal, make the move and acquire what should be a top-five QB over the final six games of the fantasy season.

Other buy-low QBs: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Derek Carr (Raiders), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)

Sell high: Patrick Mahomes

We may be a week too late on Mahomes’ peak sell-high value as he followed up his season-best 40.3-fantasy-point performance with his third-worst showing (14.1 points) in Sunday’s offensive-showdown-that-wasn’t vs. the Cowboys, but he still ranks sixth among fantasy QBs, averaging 26.3 points per game.

Perhaps, prospective buyers will only look at that and not realize that Mahomes has totaled 18.75 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last five outings, including a pair of games without a passing or rushing touchdown.

And, on paper, the Chiefs’ remaining schedule doesn’t offer much hope for a big finish, either.

In fact, including the Chiefs’ Week 12 bye, it’s the league’s least favorable fantasy QB slate on the board, with three “bad” matchups (vs. league’s top quarter of teams allowing fewest fantasy QB points per outing) and no “good” matchups (vs. top eight teams allowing most fantasy QB points).

Certainly sell if you’re in a one-QB league and have another top-10 fantasy QB option.

Other sell-high QBs: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Taylor Heinicke (Washington), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)

Running backs

Buy low: Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Denver’s second-round rookie is among the league leaders in broken tackles but is averaging only 10.1 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) and 12.7 touches per game in his 50-50 timeshare with veteran RB Melvin Gordon.

Williams has also only tallied two TDs on the season and eclipsed 15 fantasy points just twice as well.

Don’t be surprised if things shift, though, in the rookie’s favor coming out of the Broncos’ Week 11 bye.

Gordon is averaging 13.9 touches and 13.1 fantasy points, thanks largely to his team-high seven TDs, but also has lost costly fumbles in two of his three games prior to the bye, and that could tilt the split in Williams’ favor.

Gordon has played well otherwise, though, and still will be involved going forward. But his two-year, $16 million contract is up after this season, and Williams certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie to see more playing time late in the season — especially if the 5-5 Broncos fall further out of playoff contention.

If so, a tasty stretch run awaits. Denver’s Week 12-17 schedule sets up as the league’s second-most favorable for fantasy RBs, including back-to-back-to-back plus-matchups against the Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders in Weeks 14-16.

Other buy-low RBs: Antonio Gibson (Washington), James Robinson (Jaguars), Miles Sanders (Eagles)

Sell high: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner has averaged the fourth most fantasy points (25.5) among running backs over the last three weeks, and is tied for second in the league with the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler with 13 total TDs on the season.

Seven of those scores for Conner have come in the last four weeks while Arizona running mate Chase Edmonds has been sidelined in three of those contests with an ankle injury. Not including the Week 9 contest in which he was injured on his one and only snap, Edmonds was averaging 13.1 touches per game, and reports say he is on track to come off the injured reserve list in Week 13 following the team’s Week 12 bye.

That’s not good fantasy news for Conner, who has been averaging 21.3 touches in the three games Edmonds has missed. Conner averaged 12.5 touches in the eight contests playing alongside a healthy Edmonds.

And, now, with the Cards’ bye week at hand anyway, it’s time to sell Conner before his near-peak value wanes.

Other sell-high RBs: Myles Gaskin (Dolphins), Nick Chubb (Browns), Damien Harris (Patriots)

Wide receivers

Buy low: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

This buy-low comes with a relative asterisk as Allen currently ranks 14th among widouts with an average of 16.7 PPR points per game.

But while Allen does have one of the highest fantasy floors at the position — at least 10 fantasy points in all 10 games — his 20.2-point outing Sunday night was only his second 20-point-plus fantasy game of the season.

It’s all about a relative lack of TDs as Allen remains stuck on two, despite being tied for the third-most targets in the league and also ranking third in receptions with 74. Since Week 9, no wide receiver has had more targets or receptions than Allen’s 37 and 29, respectively, but Allen’s Week 8 TD grab vs. the New England Patriots stands as his only touchdown since Week 3.

And with the Bolts defense continuing to surrender points aplenty — they’re allowing the sixth most at 26.5 per game — QB Justin Herbert will still need to air it out early and often.

Already owning one of the league’s healthiest team target shares at 27.5 percent, Allen is due some positive TD regression, and acquiring him now will put his new fantasy team in prime position to fully capitalize on it.

Other buy-low WRs: A.J. Brown (Titans), D.J. Moore (Panthers), Calvin Ridley (Falcons)

Sell high: Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Over the last three weeks, only Vikings super sophomore Justin Jefferson has totaled more fantasy points (77.1) than this Jets rookie (70.4).

Credit Moore’s position-high four TD grabs over that span on 25 targets and 18 receptions, meaning that he’s found the end zone once every 4.5 catches.

That’s far from sustainable — especially when you factor in the Jets’ soon-to-be-changing-again situation at quarterback.

Replacing injured rookie Zach Wilson, Mike White, Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco have thrown all the passes in the team’s last four games, and that trio has averaged 355.8 yards per contest with 10 total TDs and six interceptions.

In the Jets’ first six games, though, Wilson averaged 194.7 yards with four total TD passes and nine picks as Moore caught just 9-of-26 targets for 79 yards and no TDs during that span.

Wilson, who is due to resume the reins any week now, and Moore certainly figure to be much better and more in sync down the stretch. But if any other fantasy owner in your league is willing to give you anything close to low-end WR1/high-end WR2 value in exchange for Moore right now, definitely give that offer a long, thorough look.

Other sell-high WRs: Brandon Aiyuk (49ers), Marquez Callaway (Saints), Darnell Mooney (Bears)

Tight ends

Buy low: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

The rookie out of Florida had back-to-back outings in mid-October with 26.9 and 23.3 fantasy points, respectively, but has only totaled 28.4 fantasy points (17th among tight ends) in the four games since, including 5.9 last Thursday night against the Patriots — his third-worst outing of the season.

Pitts, though, still was tied for sixth at the position with a team-high 25 targets during that four-game span, but he has snared fewer than 50 percent of those with 12 grabs for 164 yards and no TDs.

That means Pitts remains stuck on one TD in 10 games and 69 targets this season — the fewest among the 10 tight ends who have at least 52 targets on the season.

All of this may have the Pitts owner in your league ready to part with the rookie at a bargain price. If so, be quick to pounce with Matt Ryan and Atlanta still counting heavily on Pitts with Ridley, the team’s No. 1 WR, remaining out for personal reasons.

Other buy-low TEs: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins), T.J. Hockenson (Lions), Logan Thomas (Washington)

Sell high: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

Ertz had a monster Sunday in Seattle, reeling in eight of his nine targets for 88 yards and two TDs to pace all Week 11 tight ends with 28.8 fantasy points.

That’s only 9.7 fewer fantasy points, though, than Ertz totaled in his first four games with the Cards since coming over in the October trade with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Arizona now has its bye in Week 12, and afterward QB Kyler Murray should be back at the helm and No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins back on the field.

That will mean more passes downfield and outside the numbers and fewer looks for Ertz, who had his best game in three years Sunday.

Productive tight ends aren’t easy to find, but if you have another reliable top-seven option on your roster, capitalize and sell high on Ertz while you can.

Other sell-high TEs: Hunter Henry (Patriots), Dawson Knox (Bills), Dalton Schultz (Cowboys)

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 11

Better understanding touchdown data in fantasy leagues.

We’ve sailed past the midpoint of NFL 2021, and Thanksgiving is coming up fast.

And with fantasy regular seasons entering the home stretch, it’s time to put the almighty touchdown under the microscope and single out the players who are under- and overachieving when it comes to striking paydirt, primarily utilizing basic regression-to-the-mean logic.

Compare your fantasy teams with these two lists, and if you’re well above .500, chances are good you’re rostering more players from the latter list and vice versa with your struggling squads.

Additionally, don’t be surprised to see some “market corrections” down the stretch with the TD underachievers finding their way into the end zone more frequently and a few fewer scores for the overachievers.

In keeping with our TD theme (six points), here are six underachievers and six overachievers, listed alphabetically under each category. Red-zone statistics, naturally, are cited frequently, and all of those numbers come courtesy of the informative folks at ProFootballReference.com.

Touchdown underachievers

Keenan Allen

The Los Angeles Chargers’ veteran wide receiver ranks fifth at the position with 93 targets and is tied for third with 65 receptions, but that volume has resulted in only two touchdown grabs to date.

It’s a similar picture in the red zone for Allen. He ranks sixth with 15 red zone targets and is tied for fourth with 10 inside-the-20 receptions, but he is the only player out of the 10 with at least 14 red zone targets to have two or fewer scores.

It’s a major reason why Allen only ranks 15th among wideouts with an average of 16.3 fantasy points per contest.

Dalvin Cook

Fourteen running backs have logged at least 140 touches this season and Cook is the only one with fewer than four TDs, tallying three (all rushing) on 157 total touches.

Cook’s red-zone touchdown rates also are revealing. He’s tied for third in the league with 29 rushing attempts inside the opposition’s 20-yard line, but he has only the three TDs. Inside the 10, Cook is tied for third with 17 rushes but has just two TDs, standing out as the only one out of 11 players with 14 inside-the-10 attempts with fewer than four TDs.

As a team, the Vikings have scored a league-high 81.8 percent of their offensive TDs via the pass (18) to only four rushing.

Over the previous two seasons, Cook has totaled 30 TDs in 28 games but has three scores in seven contests so far this season, and it’s the primary reason why he currently ranks as a RB2 (tied for 15th with 16.0 PPR points per game) instead of the top-end RB1 he was drafted to be.

Justin Fields

The dual-threat rookie has 187 passing attempts and 52 rushing attempts in nine games but has accounted for only six total touchdowns (four passing and two rushing).

Of the 34 qualified quarterbacks, Fields’ TD-pass percentage of 2.1 ranks dead last so far this season.

And his rushing numbers haven’t been much better as he ranks fourth among quarterbacks with 52 rushing attempts and 288 yards but has only two ground scores. That includes one rushing TD on five red-zone rushes.

It’s one of the main reasons why Fields is averaging a paltry 13.4 fantasy points (Huddle Performance scoring) — 35th among QBs who have played multiple games.

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey, fantasy’s near-consensus No. 1 overall pick this summer, has played in only four full games this season, logging 109 total touches and totaling 99.1 PPR points.

But included in those totals is only one TD so far — an 11-yard rushing score in Week 2.

Twenty-one (18 rushes and three receptions) of McCaffrey’s 109 touches have come in the red zone, but they’ve only resulted in one TD — leaving him as the only running back without multiple TDs among the 29 who have totaled at least 17 red-zone touches so far.

McCaffrey still ranks fifth at the position with an average of 19.8 fantasy points per game, but he’s going to need to pick his TD pace to remain an elite RB1.

Jakobi Meyers

Hey, Meyers did break through in a milestone way Sunday, scoring his first touchdown in 39 career games with an with an 11-yard scoring grab with 4:13 remaining in the New England Patriots’ 45-7 blowout of the Cleveland Browns.

But that’s one TD among 198 career targets and 135 receptions, including 76 and 50, respectively, this season. That puts Meyers in rare company as he joins Buffalo Bills WR Cole Beasley and Atlanta Falcons rookie TE Kyle Pitts as the only two players without multiple TDs among the 40 wide receivers and tight ends with at least 58 targets.

Overall, Meyers is tied for 16th in the league with 76 targets and 17th with 50 receptions but is 42nd among wide receivers and tight ends with 104.3 total PPR points in 10 games.

Kyle Pitts

The Atlanta Falcons’ prize rookie tight end ranks sixth at the position with 64 targets and seventh with 40 receptions, but he’s still stuck on one TD.

Pitts has particularly struggled in the red zone, catching only three of his 10 inside-the-20 targets for 16 yards and one score.

Due to the scarcity of high-end fantasy producers at the position, Pitts does rank fifth with 106.6 total fantasy points in nine games, but he’s the only one of the top 17 highest-scoring tight ends without multiple TD receptions.

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Touchdown overachievers

Tom Brady

The Bucs’ QB leads all passers with 27 passing TDs, 28 total TDs and an average of 29.1 fantasy points per game.

He also trails only the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford (20) with 19 passing scores in the red zone and has thrown nary an interceptions inside the opposition’s 20-yard line.

No real shocker there, but where Brady is overachieving is with his league-leading 7.2 TD pass percentage. That’s 1.7 points higher than his career average and would rank as the third highest percentage of his career — and at age 44.

Finally, the Bucs have one of the league’s greatest offensive TD imbalances with 27 aerial scores to only seven ground scores — nearly a 4-to-1 ratio.

James Conner

Conner scored the Arizona Cardinals’ only touchdown Sunday in a 34-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers to up his league-leading TD total to 12 (11 rushing and one receiving).

Conner, however, ranks 18th in total touches with 138, including 125 rushes (11th).

In all, the Cards are tied for the Bucs for the league lead with 34 offensive TDs and Conner has accounted for 35.3 percent of those scores.

All 11 of Conner’s ground scores have come in the red zone, and he’s done it on only 27 rushes — an average of a TD every 2.45 red-zone attempts.

Mike Evans

In his first season with Brady a year ago, a whopping 18.6 percent of the Bucs wideout’s 70 receptions resulted in a TD (13 in all).

This season, that percentage has somehow climbed even higher through nine games with Evans finding the end zone on nine (22 percent) of his 41 catches.

Evans trails only Kupp (10) among wide receivers and tight ends with his nine scores — exactly one third of Brady’s league-leading total — but ranks 36th in that contingent with 66 targets and is tied for 35th with his 40 receptions. But despite the low overall volume, Evans ranks 11th among wideouts with an average of 17.3 fantasy points per outing.

In the red zone, Evans has reeled in seven of his 11 targets for 32 yards and five TDs.

Hunter Henry

New England Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones has thrown 13 scoring passes on the season, and more than half (seven) have been hauled in by Henry, one of two veteran free agent tight end acquisitions this offseason.

Among league tight ends, Henry’s seven touchdown catches are No. 1, and he’s done so on 42 targets (tied for 15th) and 31 receptions (14th). Thanks to the TDs, though, only Travis Kelce (166.7), Mark Andrews (134.3) and Mike Gesicki (108.9) have totaled more tight end fantasy points than Henry’s 108.3.

All of Henry’s seven TDs have come inside the red zone — six from 13 yards in or closer — with only Rams WR Cooper Kupp owning more red-zone scoring grabs with nine on the season.

Henry reeled in eight touchdown passes (on only 53 targets and 36 receptions) in his rookie season of 2016, but he’s been in a relative scoring slump since then with 13 TDs in 40 games over the last four seasons, including his 2018 campaign missed due to injury.

Dawson Knox

On a Buffalo Bills squad featuring one of the league’s top wide receiver quartets in Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, it’s the third-year tight end Knox who leads the team with five scoring catches. Diggs and Sanders have four TD receptions apiece while Davis has two and Beasley one.

And Knox has done so while playing in seven of the Bills’ nine games and ranking fourth on the team in targets (28) and receptions (22).

Among tight ends, only Henry has more TD grabs than Knox, who is tied with Kelce and C.J. Uzomah for second with five. Knox, though, is tied for 26th at the position in targets and 23rd in receptions.

Knox has doubled his career TD total this season after entering the campaign with five in 27 games over his first two seasons.

Joe Mixon

The Cincinnati Bengals’ fifth-year running back is tied for fifth overall in the league with nine total TDs (seven rushing and two receiving) in nine games, which already matches his career season high from 2019 in 14 games.

Seven of Mixon’s nine TDs have come in the red zone, but they’ve come on only 17 total touches (14 rushes and three catches on four targets) for an average of a TD every 2.43 inside-the-20 touches.

Of the Bengals’ 29 total touchdowns this season, Mixon, rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase and TE C.J. Uzomah have accounted for 21 of them (a healthy 72.4 percent).