2021 fantasy football sleepers – Syndication Server

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 17

Reflecting on 2021 fantasy breakouts, disappointments and more.

As we enter championship weekend in the majority of leagues, it’s time to take look back and analyze the fantasy year that was.

It was a season that saw Derrick Henry start strong — and division-rival Jonathan Taylor finish strong — as they ruled the running back ranks.

It was a season with an intriguing mix of fresh — and very familiar — faces populating the top 10 of fantasy quarterback rankings.

And it was a season where Cooper Kupp dominated the fantasy wide receiver field in record-setting fashion en route to the probable first wide receiver Triple Crown campaign (league leader in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns) since Steve Smith in 2005.

On the flip side, we had the usual allotment of brutal injuries, fantasy duds, and disappointments — not to mention an untimely rash of late-season COVID cases — which has derailed an untold number of well-laid draft plans and league championship runs.

It’s impossible to encapsulate all that went into fantasy 2021 — with a championship-round chapter yet to come — but we are looking at each of the four main fantasy positions this week and selecting a positional MVP, a surprise, and a disappointment for the season to date. All statistics and positional rankings are complete through play in Week 16.

Here we go, kicking things off as usual with our selections at …

Quarterback

Positional MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady likely won’t end up as the year’s highest-scoring fantasy QB, and his rushing numbers (28 carries-81 yards-2 touchdowns) are woefully behind the times in this era of highly coveted, dual-threat QBs who routinely tack on an extra 8-to-10 fantasy points to their weekly scores via their legs.

But Brady was pacing the league with 4,580 passing yards and 37 TD passes through Week 16 and ranked third with 397.10 fantasy points and an average of 26.5 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring) — all while leading the defending champion Bucs to an 11-4 record and their first NFC South title since 2007.

Oh, and you might have heard that Brady is doing so at the age of 44 — older than more than a third (12) of the league’s 32 head coaches.

Surprise standout: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

This second-year QB had his rookie year cut short (10 games total) by a devastating multi-ligament knee injury and was the 13th quarterback selected, on average, in fantasy drafts this past summer.

But on the wings of his semifinal-deciding 43.35-point outing Sunday in which he shredded the Baltimore Ravens for a franchise single-game-record 525 yards and four TD tosses, he ranks sixth at the position with 351.05 total fantasy points and 4,165 yards.

Burrow also is tied for seventh with 30 passing scores — while adding two more on the ground — and has teamed with three top-30 fantasy wide receivers to form one of the league’s most formidable aerial attacks.

Disappointment: The 2021 rookie class

Five quarterbacks were selected in the upper half of the first round of the NFL draft last spring, and over the summer, three of those QBs (No. 15 Trevor Lawrence, No. 18 Justin Fields and No. 19 Trey Lance) were selected among the top 20, on average, in fantasy drafts.

But the New England Patriots’ Mac Jones (20th with 248.95 points) is the only rookie QB currently in the top 20 in total fantasy points, but even he ranks 30th with an average of 16.6 fantasy points per game among QBs who have played in at least five contests.

Lawrence, meanwhile, is 22nd at the position with 239.35 total fantasy points and is followed by fellow rookies Fields (29th with 175.5 points), Zach Wilson (30th with 168.75) and Davis Mills (31st with 160.8).

Lance has totaled 49.4 points in five games — with 38.45 coming in back-to-back contests in Weeks 4 and 5 filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s only played five offensive snaps and hasn’t attempted a pass since then, though.

Altogether the five first-round rookie QBs and the third-rounder Mills, who’s started nine games for the Houston Texans) have combined to throw 53 TD passes and 61 interceptions while adding nine more combined TDs on the ground.

Rookie numbers to be sure, but certainly not usable outside of two-quarterback leagues.

Running back

Positional MVP: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The second-year Indy back enters Week 17 having scored 47.5 more PPR points than the next best fantasy running back (Austin Ekeler).

Only Henry, who played in eight games prior to a foot fracture, is averaging more fantasy points per contest (23.4) than Taylor’s 23.1.

Taylor, though, leads the league with 1,626 rushing yards, 1,962 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He enters fantasy championship weekend riding a streak of 12 straight games with at least 108 total yards or a touchdown, putting up at least 19.7 fantasy points in 11 of those 12 contests.

And to think there were still lingering doubts about Taylor entering Week 4 as he totaled only 32.1 fantasy points without a TD in his first three 2021 outings.

Fast forward three months, though, and the 22-year-old Taylor has established himself as the near-consensus No. 1 fantasy pick entering 2022.

Surprise standout: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

The list of 2021’s 10 highest-scoring fantasy running backs is comprised mainly of usual suspects and repeat performers, but the RB at No. 8 stands out from the rest.

It’s Patterson, the 30-year-old journeyman who’s been fantasy’s surprise breakout star playing on his fifth team in nine seasons.

His most recent two games (4.3 and 8.3 PPR points) have been two of his three worst of the season, but he has totaled 225.2 fantasy points on the year — an average of 16.1 per outing.

Entering 2021, Patterson hadn’t logged more than 85 touches or 149.7 fantasy points in any of his first eight seasons, but he’s handled a team-high 189 for the Falcons, including 49 receptions for 523 yards (second among RBs) and five TDs as he’s put his WR skills to good use in the backfield on a team that desperately needs offensive playmakers.

As a rusher, he’s shattered his previous career highs with 140 carries for 579 yards and six total TDs, making him the waiver-wire find of the fantasy season.

Disappointment: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

For the second straight season, Run CMC was the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick, and for the second consecutive year, he’s played less than half a season in a campaign wrecked by injuries.

After playing in only three contests a season ago, hamstring and ankle injuries limited McCaffrey to seven games this year before he finally landing on the injured reserve list after Week 12.

When he did play, McCaffrey flashed his elite RB1 skill set, catching 37 total passes and scoring 24.7 or more fantasy points in four of seven games. He averaged 18.2 PPR points per contest, ranking seventh at the position.

But 23 missed games over the last two seasons, unfortunately, will be the most notable number attached to McCaffrey entering drafts next offseason, and it will be interesting to see if he remains a sure-fire first-round fantasy pick.

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Wide receiver

Positional MVP: (Who else but) Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

With 132 receptions for 1,734 yards and 14 TDs on 177 targets, Kupp not only is in line for the rare WR Triple Crown, but with 389.4 PPR points to date, he’s only 24.7 points away from eclipsing Jerry Rice’s single-season WR fantasy record of 414, set in 1995.

Kupp has had at least seven receptions, 92 receiving yards and 16.2 fantasy points in 14 of 15 games, including a current run of 11 straight.

It’s left the fantasy competition in the dust.

Green Bay Packers standout Davante Adams has the second-most WR fantasy points with 302.2, but that trails Kupp by a whopping 87.2 points — basically equal to the point gap between the No. 12 fantasy wideout (Mike Evans) and the No. 46 wideout (Marquez Callaway).

Not bad for a wide receiver with a preseason ADP of 53.65 — 20th at the position.

Kupp is your overall 2021 fantasy MVP.

Surprise standout: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Drafted four or so rounds later than Kupp, on average, was Samuel, who was coming off an injury-addled 2020 sophomore season in which he totaled only 80.7 fantasy points in seven games.

Samuel sped past that total in Week 4 this season and hasn’t slowed down since, totaling 296.8 points so far to trail only Kupp, Adams and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson (297.1).

Samuel has reached elite WR1 territory in unconventional fashion as he ranks 20th in receptions (70) among wide receivers, but has rushed the ball a position-high 44 times for 301 yards and seven TDs — adding to his 1,247 yards and five scores as a pass-catcher.

Disappointment: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Robinson had a fourth-round ADP, 12th among wideouts, this summer as fantasy GMs expected 2020’s ninth-ranked wide receiver to pick up right where he left off.

Instead, Robinson is wrapping up the worst season of his career with all of 32 receptions for 353 yards and one TD on 56 targets, ranking 90th among wide receivers with 73.3 fantasy points.

So what’s happened?

Injuries/COVID-19 have cost Robinson five full games, and inefficiency has dogged him in the 10 contests he has played in in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack. His catch rate has fallen off more than 10 percentage points (57.1 from 67.5) from last season, and his yards per target average has sunk from 8.3 to 6.3.

He’s also been stuck on one TD grab since Week 2, and the majority of fantasy teams who spent a top four-round pick on Robinson have long since cut bait and moved on.

Tight end

Positional MVP: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews has put together one of the most impressive tight end fantasy stretch runs in recent memory with 29 receptions for 376 yards, four TDs and 80.6 fantasy points on 34 targets over the last three weeks, propelling a good number of his fantasy teams into the championship round.

He’s also done it largely with backup QBs Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson at the helm in place of the injured Lamar Jackson.

Andrews’ late-season surge has also boosted him to the top of the season-long fantasy tight end ranks with 265.7 total points — 27.7 more than second-place Travis Kelce.

Andrews, of course, leads the Ravens with 93 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine TDs — all career and 2021 tight end highs — and he’s opened up a serious debate on who should be the top tight end selected in fantasy drafts this coming offseason.

Surprise standouts: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills and Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Knox is tied with Andrews and the New England Patriots’ Hunter Henry for the positional lead with nine TD grabs — the main reason why the third-year Buffalo player ranks seventh among tight ends with 153.8 total fantasy points.

Knox entered 2021 with 52 career receptions for 676 yards and five TDs in 27 games over two seasons, but has 46 catches for 538 yards and the nine scores in 13 contests this season as the Bills’ surprising second-leading pass-catcher.

Schultz also has surprised as the Cowboys’ second-leading receiver with 69 receptions for 733 yards and six TDs on 91 targets. That’s good for 178.3 fantasy points, ranking only behind Andrews, Kelce (238 points) and San Francisco 49ers stud George Kittle (189.5).

That latter threesome all own top-five fantasy tight end ADPs while Shultz and Knox checked in at 35 and 28, respectively.

Disappointment: Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Waller, who had the second-highest tight end ADP this offseason, does rank fifth at the position with an average of 12.9 fantasy points per game, but he’s missed five contests, including the last four as he recovers from a Thanksgiving Day knee injury that originally wasn’t believed to be overly serious.

Perhaps it was just that Waller set the bar too high out of the gate with 26.5 fantasy points on 19 targets in Week 1. He’s topped 15 fantasy points only three times since then, though, and ranks 15th overall at the position with 129.3 total points on the season with still no indication if he’ll be available to tack on any more in the Raiders’ final two games.

Waller hasn’t been a fantasy disaster of the aforementioned Allen Robinson variety, but it’s certainly not the season fantasy GMs envisioned when they used a late second- or early third-round pick on the Vegas tight end.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs

2021 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

A sleeper running back is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Running Back
1	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	Last year burned many fantasy owners, but his injuries were ankle and thigh, nothing like a torn ACL. When he did play, he was yet again very productive.
2	MIN	Dalvin Cook	Cook always misses two games or so, but dominates when he plays. Grab Alexander Mattison for the two games and enjoy massive fantasy points in all the rest.
3	TEN	Derrick Henry	He was unstoppable last season. Cannot fault the pick but he’s also coming off a monstrous 832 touches over the last two years. That’s the sort of volume ended Terrell Davis’ career. He’s bound to be mortal eventually. Probably. Maybe.
4	NO	Alvin Kamara	Brees is gone but he was diminished the last two years anyway. For the last four seasons, Kamara was Top-4 in all but one when he was injured in 2019. He catches at least 80 passes per year, regardless of quarterback, and a banged up Michael Thomas only means even more dump off passes.
5	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Elliott is usually a Top-5 back and even without Dak Prescott, being hurt himself, and losing most of his O-line, he still ended up as No. 9 last season. The gang is all back.
6	CLE	Nick Chubb	Chubb may be the best pure runner in the NFL and he works behind the No. 1 offensive line. Only his lack of receptions holds him down this far.
7	NYG	Saquon Barkley	There are plenty of other backs in the draft. The first round is not where you should be saying “maybe this will turn out okay.” Until more clarity on his health happens – and it almost certainly will not prior to most drafts – then the risk makes Barkley a scary prospect. He never falls far enough to compensate for his risk.
8	IND	Jonathan Taylor	The rookie blew up for 1,468 total yards and 12 touchdowns to be the No. 6 fantasy back last year. The Wentz situation makes it a little less clear, but Taylor runs behind the No. 2 offensive line and Marlon Mack still is no threat.
9	LAC	Austin Ekeler	Four years into his career, Ekeler was better than No. 25 only once. The offense that fed him 92 catches in 2019 is long gone. He’s never ran more than 132 times in a season and stayed healthy for just the one Cinderella 2019 blip.
10	GB	Aaron Jones	This is a good spot for Jones. The return of Aaron Rodgers and great O-line are major positives. The biggest concern is Jones staying healthy and going from the No. 2 rushing schedule strength to the No. 31. Wouldn’t take him any higher.
11	PIT	Najee Harris	There’s plenty to be wary about with a rookie running back on a team with a terrible O-line and a fading quarterback. But Harris was the first back drafted in April and the only rookie stepping into a heavy workload. He was dynamic at Bama with 1,891 total yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior. Expectations are naturally very high.
12	WAS	Antonio Gibson	The hybrid-player with only 77 touches in two years at Memphis broke all conventions when he ended as the No. 13 fantasy back last year. He’s drawing even better reviews from camp this year. Maybe a head-scratcher, but one that scores a lot of fantasy points.
13	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	The Chiefs’ rusher is rising in the rankings for good reason. He missed three games, had no real preseason, and his O-line blew up in 2020. He’s worth a mulligan in the most explosive offense in the NFL.
14	CIN	Joe Mixon	Missing 10 games with a foot injury last year soured him to many, but the Bengals O-line is improved, the rushing schedule is much better, Giovani Bernard left, and the coaches intend to make Mixon into a workhorse. Worth the risk here.
15	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	Dobbins proved a force with 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, and he’s rock solid here. But he doesn’t catch much and the Ravens are committed to their committee.
16	CHI	David Montgomery	Shocking as it seems, Montgomery was the No. 4 fantasy back last year when Tarik Cohen was hurt and HC Matt Nagy had no other inferior back to steal the carries. The Bears have the No. 2 rushing schedule paired with the same bad O-line. He’s worth higher than this and Cohen is slow to return from a torn ACL.
17	SEA	Chris Carson	Carson has been a Top-20 fantasy back in each of the last three years. The schedule is a little better and Rashaad Penny spent the last three years as an injury waiting to happen. Always solid, never spectacular.
18	DET	D’Andre Swift	Here’s another rookie that struggled in the COVID-19-impacted season. Swift gets new coaches that want to turn him into a Alvin Kamara-like player. The O-line is better than most and so far it appears the Lions’ offense is mostly up to Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Jared Goff was given some sketchy wideouts, so Swift can be a valuable outlet.
19	PHI	Miles Sanders	While Sanders has the talent to produce far better than this, he is also on a team that is committed to a rotation even with new coaches. A rushing quarterback only serves to further diminish what the backfield can do.
20	LV	Josh Jacobs	This is a level equal to Jacobs’ rookie year. He was No. 8 in 2020 but the addition of Kenyan Drake scares away fantasy team owners. That’s probably overrated. This is should be the worst that he’ll do.
21	MIA	Myles Gaskin	The Dolphins did nothing in the draft for the backfield and only picked up free agent Malcolm Brown. Gaskin doesn’t have the pedigree or resume to earn him a starting job. But he has the one thing that trumps all else. He gets the opportunity. And he catches the ball well with 41 catches in 2020. Plus the Fins have the No. 3 rushing schedule. Maybe he disappears in 2022, but he’s poised for a decent year in 2021.
22	ATL	Mike Davis	Another back that had far fewer touches during his first five years on three teams. But one season in Carolina when Christian McCaffrey was hurt and he converted that into a surprising starting gig for the Falcons. It’s a new offense under HC Arthur Smith but Davis caught 59 passes for the Panthers last year and ran 165 times. The Falcons did not bring in anyone else to challenge him.
23	CLE	Kareem Hunt	This may end up as a steal. The Browns intend to run their offense through Nick Chubb and Hunt with the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL. This is the worst he’ll do. With Chubb banged up last year, Hunt finished as the No. 10 fantasy back.
24	JAX	James Robinson	Robinson was a huge surprise when he replaced Leonard Fournette. This season, there is a whole new offense, a new rookie quarterback, a below-average O-line and they added Travis Etienne in the first round. They say the rookie becomes the third-down back, but Etienne twice ran for 1,600 yards at Clemson. Good rushing schedule, though. Just feels risky like Etienne may increase his role while Robinson declines later in the season when you really need him.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back
25	LAR	Darrell Henderson	The loss of Cam Akers devastated this backfield that had already parted with Malcolm Brown. Henderson rises to RB1 by default and the former third-rounder of 2019 turned in several nice games last year. But he’s had injury issues including a high-ankle sprain in 2020. The Rams will use a committee approach, so Henderson is not the new Akers. But he should, for now, be the primary back.
26	JAX	Travis Etienne	Jags do not need Etienne to step into a full-time running back role with James Robinson there, but the new coaching staff grabbed Etienne with a first-round pick. So far, the plan is for Etienne to be a third-down back which alone could justify this draft spot. But he’s too talented to not, at least eventually, become a primary back. Could start slower, though.
27	SF	Raheem Mostert	2019 was his magical year and even then only as the No. 25 fantasy back. His other five years never played more than 9 games or ranked better than 47. No thanks.
28	ARI	Chase Edmonds	Risk is here with never more than 850 total yards in a season, but Kenyan Drake is gone and Edmonds stepped up last year as the No. 2 back with 53 receptions. The addition of James Conner could end up as a true two-back system, but ARI has a better O-line, easier schedule and a more mature offense.
29	DEN	Javonte Williams	Williams has climbed draft boards all summer long. Melvin Gordon is still there and maybe the No. 1 back at least to start. But he’s in his final contract year and the Broncos moved up to grab the NCU star that has all the physical attributes and skill set to become an elite NFL back. Denver owns the No. 1 rushing schedule strength so there may be enough for both backs to matter.
30	NE	Damien Harris	Maybe third time is the charm? Two lost seasons for the ex-Alabama rusher but he gained 5.0 YPC on his 137 runs last year including three 100-yard games. Pats backfield has been a mess for a decade, but Harris remains at the top until he is injured yet again. If Mac Jones starts, the offense becomes more traditional and the RB1 will likely account for more.
31	DEN	Melvin Gordon	Gordon was Top-12 every year he did not hold out. But he never stays healthy, only once ever broke 1,000 rush yards in six years and relied mostly on short-yardage touchdowns. Final year of contract and almost certainly gone in 2022. Expectations are that Javonte Williams becomes the primary back sooner than later, so Gordon’s fantasy value is likely to decline as the season progresses.
32	NYJ	Michael Carter	He’s smaller at only 5-8 and 190 pounds, but the Jets added him to a backfield that appears to be devoid of talent. Offense promises to be better under OC Mike LaFleur and Carter should be the lead back here. None of current Jets’ rushers gained more than 254 yards last year. Very low bar to start and Carter adds receiving
33	SF	Trey Sermon	Another rookie that rises in drafts each week. Bottom line – Sermon is likely the best inside rusher on the team but the offense always splits up carries. Has the most upside of any 49ers back. But no runner totaled more than 153 carries in a season since HC Kyle Shanahan showed up in 2017.
34	TB	Leonard Fournette	He was a testament as to why early fantasy drafts are risky. Fournette turned it on later last season, and the Buccaneers head into this year with two rushers. Fournette deserves to go first since he does more as a receiver but Ronald Jones still figures in and technically is the primary back. Buccaneers also fall to the No. 32 rushing schedule, so his receptions should help keep him on the field, unless Giovani Bernard assumes the role.
36	HOU	David Johnson	Texans backfield is crowded with mediocre has-beens and never-weres, and the O-line is still a liability. Worst rushing schedule. That all said, Johnson is most likely to lead the group whatever that means this year. What it mostly means is that you waited too long if Johnson is one of your starting running backs.
37	ARI	James Conner	The backfield in Arizona will be split between Conner and Chase Edmonds and last year the totals were only average for an NFL backfield. Edmonds has the advantage of knowing the offense and catching 53 passes last year. But Conner at 6-1, 233 pounds is likely to take the inside role over the 5-9, 205 pound Edmonds. Cardinals have a lighter rushing schedule this year. Coming off toe surgery but should be fine.
38	BUF	Zack Moss	Had ankle surgery in January but expected to be good to go for Week 1. This was one of the worst backfields in 2020 but Moss was busier at the end of that season. Singletary lost carries to Moss and evolved into a receiving back by the end of the year. Moss should continue to see more carries. Josh Allen running in scores undercuts what Moss could do.
39	GB	A.J. Dillon	Dillon is a must-have for the Aaron Jones owner and should supply stand-alone fantasy value with short-yardage and goal line work. The Packers rushing strength of schedule plummets from No. 2 down to only No. 31 for this season. But the O-line is one of the best.
40	LV	Kenyan Drake	He’s a great handcuff for the Josh Jacobs owner, and may pick up some work as a third-down option. He’s had his shot as a primary back and wasn’t quite up to the task.
41	BAL	Gus Edwards	Ravens just signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract as a part of the rotation. He’ll be No. 2 behind J.K. Dobbins and has no real chance of ever supplying RB1 stats. But – he’s always going to be good for some yardage and a catch or two per game. The Ravens like him and he’s a decent roster stash in case it all goes wrong and you need a consistent – even if minimally – running back. Solid O-line helps.
42	WAS	J.D. McKissic	New quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t likely toss another 110 targets at McKissic like last year. He’s a distant second to Antonio Gibson but will remain a third-down back to use to cover bye weeks.
43	BUF	Devin Singletary	Third-rounder from 2019 hasn’t quite caught fire in Buffalo and Zack Moss is taking more of the rushing load at the least. This deeply, he has enough value to merit a fantasy roster spot but his usage is trending the wrong way with the Bills
44	DAL	Tony Pollard	The Cowboys want to keep Zeke Elliott fresher for the playoffs, and Pollard looked great when he replaced the elite rusher that the defense cared about. He should see at least a tick more use this year and is a capable back if they need him to step up and replace Elliott if needed. Mostly – just the handcuff for the Elliott owner.
45	DET	Jamaal Williams	The Lions intend to use D’Andre Swift and Williams as a tandem backfield and even said “the hot hand” gets the bigger share. But the pair are complementary with Swift the fast, outside rusher and receiver and Williams more of an inside puncher. Lions have an all-new scheme, and set of coaches and skill players, but they also have an above-average O-line. Williams is a handcuff for Swift but could produce fantasy relevant stats even as a stand-alone back.
46	IND	Nyheim Hines	Nothing wrong with swinging for the fence this deep, but there’s a lot to be said about a third-down guy like Hines who catches 60 passes per season and offers about 10 points every week in PPR leagues. He won’t win your league, but he could help keep your team afloat if your backfield has injuries.
47	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Handcuff for Dalvin Cook who always misses a game or two. But short of Cook being out, Mattison offers nearly nothing while Cook handles everything.
48	NO	Latavius Murray	There is conjecture that the Saints will play Alvin Kamara as a receiver more and that Murray sees a spike in rushing from his normal 140 rushes per year. But Taysom Hill may take up carries and touchdowns, and Murray is 31 years old. Saints have a great O-line and Murray could still deliver equal to this level, but he’s getting old to expect much else.
49	HOU	Phillip Lindsay	The Texans’ log jam at running back should clear out a bit by the start of the season, but maybe not by your fantasy draft. Lindsay is just a lottery ticket that likely doesn’t pay off with what appears to be a very bad offense for 2021.
50	NYJ	Tevin Coleman	Maybe Coleman reunites with with his 49ers coaches, and he’s certainly the only veteran that’s done anything in their NFL career in their backfield. But the 28-year-old Coleman hasn’t amounted to much since 2018 with the Falcons. He’s often injured now and the Jets only paid him $2M for one year.
51	CHI	Tarik Cohen	Tore his ACL last year and still not healthy. Nope. Do not draft players that are already injured.
52	SEA	Rashaad Penny	Speaking of injured players, Penny spent all three years getting injured or recovering. Now word is that DeeJay Dallas may take some third-down duty. Going on four years, not drafting Penny has been the wise move.
53	TB	Ronald Jones	He is listed on the top of the depth chart and may end up with more carries than Leonard Fournette, but his final eight games totaled only three catches. And worse yet, Bucs have the worst rushing schedule.
54	NE	James White	No Brady, no bueno. Cam Newton preferred to run rather than dump off to White. If Mac Jones gets the start, White may matter again.
55	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	You can be really sure that if I own the best fantasy running back, I am going to own his backup. And yes, I was torched last year when I did not do this with Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers want to take it easier on McCaffrey and that could help Hubbard, but they always say that sort of thing. Hubbard is worth stealing.
56	LAR	Xavier Jones	That backfield for the Rams became interesting and yet muddy when Cam Akers was lost. Darrell Henderson defaults as the primary back but Jones should see some action. Jake Funk may also be involved. Until it is all sorted out and made permanent, Jones is a worthy final running back draft pick that could surprise.
57	IND	Marlon Mack	Mack tore his Achilles last year and Jonathan Taylor took full advantage, even as a rookie. He’s nothing more than a waiver wire pick if bad things happen to Taylor.
59	NYG	Devontae Booker	Booker is just a backup for Saquon Barkley, but Alfred Morris may also get involved. Barkley seems likely to take it easy to open the year, but Booker is not even a great handcuff, let alone have reliable weekly fantasy value.
60	HOU	Mark Ingram	The 31-year-old Ingram seems to have hit the 30-year-old wall in Baltimore last year and all but disappeared. Landing on a terrible offense with a bad O-line when he’s over the hill doesn’t promote any positive vibes.

Best of the rest

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – The Patriots have long used a committee approach to their backfield, and the rookie Stevenson may only be the No. 4 back. But there’s speculation that Sony Michel may be dropped, James White remains an under-used third-down back and primary rusher Damien Harris has been less than durable in his two years. The burly ex-Sooner has impressed and could see more work than expected. An early comparison to Corey Dillon is probably just bluster, but there is some upside here.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks

2021 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

A sleeper quarterback is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies a bad value or at least too high of a risk for that spot.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position is more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Analysis
1	KC	Pat Mahomes	It’s a coin flip between Mahomes and Allen with no wrong answer.
2	BUF	Josh Allen	Top QB last year and rushing ensures fantasy points every week.
3	ARI	Kyler Murray	Two years in and never worse than No. 7. His No. 2 last season could repeat and costs a full round or two after Allen and Mahomes.
4	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Rushing keeps him consistent and has new targets to help passing. Better schedule also a plus.
5	DAL	Dak Prescott	Prescott on fire in 2020 but then got hurt. Healthy now, but still a bit of risk losing some of his rushing fantasy points. If stays healthy, then this is a big value.
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	Turned in No. 8 stats as a rookie but most points were vs. NFC South that won’t repeat. No. 2 schedule in 2020 falls to No. 23 and Herbert looks a tad Sophomore slump-ish.
7	SEA	Russell Wilson	Tough schedule but some upgrades in receivers. Three of last four years were higher than this. Always solid.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Sadly, the MVP of… wait. He’s back? Geez. Rodgers is always solid but he had the lightest schedule in 2020. This feels very right for a player that can turn in more than a few monster games.
9	TB	Tom Brady	I’d never draft a 44 Y.O. QB, but he was No. 7 last year. His inability to age would have gotten him stoned back in medieval times. I mean with actual rocks. Can’t argue against this, though. Making every other 44 Y.O. feel really bad about themselves.
10	LAR	Matthew Stafford	Had a thumb scare but is ok. The Rams offense is very similar to what he had in DET a few years back in terms of talent. He’s not going to run, but he was Top-10 until Matt Patricia took over HC for a few seasons..
11	PHI	Jalen Hurts	By this point, you waited and loaded up elsewhere and that is OK. Hurts is interesting in that he has the Heisman Trophy winner to catch passes, usually ran for 50 yards per game and has a lighter schedule. His rushing production lifts his fantasy value to this level.
12	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	This is slightly lower than what Tannehill did last year and he did get Julio Jones as an upgrade. The concern is most of his fantasy points were passing touchdowns thanks to every defense worried more about Henry running it in. Also has the No. 29 pass schedule. He’s a sleeper to some, but history doesn’t like QBs that pass for lots of touchdowns and not as many yards (3,819 yards vs. 33 touchdowns). If Henry ever gets hurt, then Tannehill takes on all new fantasy potential.

Sleepers and Overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	CIN	Joe Burrow	The knee injury is concerning. But Burrow is not much of a runner anyway, and half his rookie games were 300+ yards. Now he has his BFF Ja’Marr Chase and a better schedule. Solid pick as a fantasy backup long as the knee is no issue.
14	ATL	Matt Ryan	Ryan threw for 4,000+ yards in each of the last ten years. Been a lock for 25 touchdowns. He’s been fantasy starter worthy since 2009. Jones is gone, but he wasn’t around much last year. Far better schedule and still a very “iffy” rushing offense adds fuel to the fire.
15	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	Picking up fantasy backups, why not grab the No. 1 overall pick in the draft who was “born to QB.” There are offensive tools in Jacksonville and yet one of the worst defenses from 2020 is back to keep Lawrence needing to throw late in games.
16	HOU	Deshaun Watson	I get the lottery ticket notion. But man, just doesn’t look like this year is going to happen for him in the NFL. And the league hasn’t said much with all the many lawsuits and such. If you need risky thrill, just saddle up a rookie running back or wideout.
17	CLE	Baker Mayfield	Three years in NFL and never better than No. 16, or worse than No. 17. Here’s a salute to fantasy mediocrity. This is a perfect spot for him.
18	IND	Carson Wentz	The Colts have a great schedule and Wentz could restart his career. But injuring his foot and needing surgery, coupled with between 5 and 12 weeks recovery means no thanks.
19	MIN	Kirk Cousins	Maybe he hasn’t racked up the wins they wanted, but Cousins has made stars of his receivers and been Top-12 nearly every season, including 2020 (No. 11). You could do much worse for a fantasy backup.
20	SF	Trey Lance	Most of the remaining quarterbacks are just deep backups that hopefully never do more than cover a bye week. Lance is super raw with just one good year at college. And he opted out last year. But his one good season saw him throw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns, and run for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores. Running rookie quarterbacks facing the No. 4 passing schedule is always interesting. Could be a dangerous fit in that offense.
21	CHI	Justin Fields	He’s certainly worth a dart throw this late. He’ll likely be on the field sooner than later, but the Bears offense under Matt Nagy is always a concern. This late in a draft, no harm.
22	NE	Cam Newton	Only problem with Newton is will he be there when you need him to cover a bye week?
23	WAS	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Sure, he is on his 43rd NFL team. But he’s always been better than expected and certainly beats anything seen in Washington last year.
24	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	How the mighty have fallen. If his elbow doesn’t flare up again this year, then this is a steal but a bad O-line and below average schedule is not going to help.

Best of the Rest

Sam Darnold (CAR) – Maybe Darnold really is a bust, but maybe it was just playing on the Jets under Adam Gase. With D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, Darnold gets to experience what an actual offense can look like.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – He posted two 300-yard games as a rookie and the weaponry has been upgraded for Miami. He’s worth a backup pick.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers

2021 Sleeper and Value Play Wide Receivers

A sleeper wide receiver is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Team	Wide Receiver
1	GB	Davante Adams	The No. 1 from last year is always the No. 1 draft pick the next year. And since Aaron Rodgers is back and Adams is in his final contract year, why not?
2	KC	Tyreek Hill	Been a lock for Top-5 if he stays healthy.
3	BUF	Stefon Diggs	Changing teams is not always a bad thing. And apparently Diggs was just what Josh Allen needed.
4	ARI	DeAndre Hopkins	A lock for the Top-5 and it doesn’t matter what team he is on.
5	ATL	Calvin Ridley	Third-year breakout in 2020 with 90-1374-9 thanks to a broken-down Julio Jones. Now he’s gone to the Titans and Ridley starts his own era.
6	SEA	D.K. Metcalf	Not only taken as the ninth wideout drafted in 2019, he remains better than any of the previously taken eight. A good rookie year became a great second season in 2020.
7	MIN	Justin Jefferson	The Vikings lost Stefon Diggs but didn’t really notice since the rookie Jefferson caught 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. That was the No. 2 best receiving yardage by a rookie in NFL history.
8	TEN	A.J. Brown	Brown has only ranked No. 14 and No. 21 in his two seasons, and now he has to share with Julio Jones while the Titans have the No. 29 passing schedule strength. Oh, and he had surgery on both knees in the offseason. Seems optimistic at No. 8.
9	LAC	Keenan Allen	Good spot for the guy that caught at least 97 passes in each of the last four years. He doesn’t gain a ton of yards with each catch, but he’s been high-volume for receptions regardless of quarterback
10	WAS	Terry McLaurin	He keeps missing a game or two each year, but he’s averaged around 1,000 yards while playing with a mishmash of sketchy quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade.
11	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	The Cowboys were lucky for Lamb to fall to the 1.17 pick. The five games with Dak Prescott averaged 74 yards for a rookie that didn’t really have a preseason thanks to COVID-19. He averaged six catches in those five first games of his career. Anything earlier than this may seem risky, but Lamb is the real deal on a team that likes to throw.
12	CHI	Allen Robinson	He’s Top-10 the last two years but Andy Dalton is named the starter even though both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper had noticeable drops playing with him in Dallas for 2020. Justin Fields is a rookie and may not be a lot better, but Robinson has the talent and is the franchise player so he’s aiming toward a payday in 2022.
13	TEN	Julio Jones	Jones was a Top-7 wideout every year and a yardage monster. He broke down in 2020 with hip and hamstring issues. The difference now is that the Titans have a star wideout in A.J. Brown, prefer to run the ball with Derrick Henry, and have a bad passing schedule. Hard to believe that will result in two Titans placing in the Top-13 receivers as ADP suggests. Jones is 32 years old now, has the decline started?
14	TB	Mike Evans	Good spot for Evans who ended as the No. 12 wideout in his first season with Tom Brady. After seven years, he still has never failed to gain at least 1,000 yards.
15	LAR	Robert Woods	Woods came to life when he joined the Rams in 2017 and he’s been a lock for 90 catches and 1,000 yards. He’s placed between No. 10 and No. 14 for the last three years, and now gets a better quarterback, while the rushing offense has taken a major hit with the loss of Cam Akers. Woods is a great value here with upside for more.
16	DAL	Amari Cooper	This is likely a good value on Cooper(ankle) who was no worse than No. 15 the last two years. The emergence of CeeDee Lamb will cut into his targets, but he’s never failed to crest 1,000 yards in his three seasons in Dallas.
17	NO	Michael Thomas	Thomas was a Top-10 lock when he played with Drew Brees and was the No. 1 wideout in 2019 before his injuries started and Drew Brees declined. He needed ankle surgery and started training camp on the PUP list. Jameis Winston should keep Thomas busy, but the Saints are likely to run more this year. The more Taysom Hill plays, the less passing downfield. Lots of risk and questions for a receiver with 149 receptions just two years ago.
18	TB	Chris Godwin	Even this may be a bit high. Godwin blew up in 2019 as the No. 3 best fantasy wideout when Jameis Winston threw for 5,000 yards. Otherwise, he’s been just another 850-yard, seven-touchdown sort of receiver that misses a few games each year. He’s been better than No. 23 only that one time.
19	LAR	Cooper Kupp	The change in quarterback to Matt Stafford can only help, but Kupp has found his level at 90 catches for 1,000 yards or so. Not much more upside but almost no downside if he remains healthy.
20	MIN	Adam Thielen	If he remains healthy, this is low. Thielen was around No. 10 in three of the last four years including No. 11 just last season. He also comes off a career-best 14 touchdowns. Not a sexy pick, but a historically productive one.
21	PIT	Diontae Johnson	The second-year wideout was solid with 88 catches for 923 yards last year while Ben Roethlisberger took to short passes. That’s less likely the case this year with a major upgrade at running back (who can catch), and the intention to get back to deeper throws and to run more often.
22	CAR	D.J. Moore	Moore posted over 1,100 receiving yards in each of the last two years despite playing with a constantly changing quarterback situation. That’s true again this year, but Moore has always risen to the occasion and this is the second year for OC Joe Brady’s offense.
23	SEA	Tyler Lockett	Lockett has never been worse than No. 13 since 2017, but the emergence of D.K. Metcalf saw Lockett’s role shrink in the second half of last year. The Seahawks have one of the worst passing schedules, so Lockett may be hard pressed to return to his previous level of production.
24	CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	Okay, so he really only produced one big year at LSU but 84-1780-20 as a sophomore winning a national championship got him plenty noticed. Now back with the same quarterback as he had in college, expectations are very high. Chase was a COVID-19 opt-out in 2020, so he’s realistically very raw. It may all come together quickly and this draft slot says plenty of fantasy fans believe that. Great allure and tremendous natural talent, but risk all the same.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Team	Wide Receiver
25	NYG	Kenny Golladay	The ex-Lion cashed in for a four-year, $72 million contract with the Giants despite a down 2020 when he missed 11 games with hamstring and hip injuries. Golladay (hamstring) already will miss 2-3 weeks of practice. The jury is still out on Daniel Jones as a starting quarterback but they have no other options. The offense has been conservative with OC Jason Garrett, but that should favor the new No. 1 wideout for the Giants.
26	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	While Aiyuk’s production varied greatly, he impressed with four games over 90 yards and filled in for the absent Deebo Samuel and George Kittle last year. His stock has fallen a bit as the summer wears on, and the 49ers should spread the ball around more this year. And run the ball more as well. He’s talented, but the offense hasn’t produced any stud wide receivers in a long time.
27	CLE	Odell Beckham Jr	The move to Cleveland produced the lowest catch totals in his career. And he’s battled injuries since 2016 and then tore his ACL in Week 7 last year. The Browns have a dominating rushing offense, but the the passing stats are already some of the lowest in the NFL. And now he is rehabbing a torn ACL? No thanks.
28	CIN	Tee Higgins	Higgins already formed chemistry with Joe Burrow last year and ended with 908 yards as a rookie. The addition of Ja’Marr Chase will have an impact to be sure, but Chase did not play last year and will take time. Tyler Boyd will take the bigger hit. This is a great spot for Higgins who could go a bit earlier.
29	PIT	Chase Claypool	The 6-4 Notre Dame product turned in monster games and a few total whiffs as a rookie. No team threw more than the Steelers and that’s bound to decrease. Upgrading the running game alone will impact the passing. Claypool is still a bit risky given the offense, but he has plenty of upside to merit this pick.
30	PHI	DeVonta Smith	Smith may struggle through his rookie year with a quarterback who is still learning the job. And he’s oddly lanky at 6-1 but only 175 pounds. But all he has ever done is dominate when given the chance. He won the Heisman as a wideout after he posted 117-1856-23 over 13 games last year. Risk as a rookie? Of course. Upside to surprise? Always has so far.
31	DEN	Courtland Sutton	Was on the path to big things after posting 1,112 yards and six scores in his second season, but last year he tore his ACL. Until there is proof he is over the injury – physically and mentally – I’m not buying.
32	JAX	D.J. Chark	The Jaguars are all new for 2021 and Chark is the only receiver cemented in his role. His success rides on the arm of the rookie Trevor Lawrence, but he posted 1,000 yards in 2019 with far less pedigreed quarterbacks. The No. 1 wideout for any team should be this high. Chark has the best offense around him since he was drafted in 2018.
33	DEN	Jerry Jeudy	The 1.15 pick last year led the Broncos in receiving despite the offense crumbling around him with injuries. Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater are fighting to be the starter, so Jeudy may still be limited by his quarterback play. But he did post two 100-yard efforts as a rookie, including 140 yards in Week 17.
34	PIT	JuJu Smith-Schuster	Signed a one-year deal to stay in Pittsburgh, but his monster 2018 season is hard to recall. Smith-Schuster caught 97 passes last year while Ben Roethlisberger couldn’t throw deep, but he only averaged a paltry 8.6 yards. Falling this far may mean he is a value, but the Steelers want to run more this year and start throwing deeper again.
35	SF	Deebo Samuel	The 49ers passing game is hard to call with uncertainty at quarterback. But Brandon Aiyuk looked strong as a rookie and George Kittle will be back. Samuel missed nine games in 2020 because he couldn’t stay healthy. The 49ers want to run more, not pass more to the No. 3 target.
36	CAR	Robby Anderson	This is a steal if Anderson can repeat the 95 catches of last year, but a change in quarterback to Sam Darnold puts more risk into the equation. They played together at the Jets, so it won’t be all new. But a healthy Christian McCaffrey means fewer passes for the wideouts.
37	TB	Antonio Brown	Brown is 33 years old, so hardly a youngster. But he caught 45 passes in just eight games with Tom Brady and somehow kept completely out of the news for once. Too many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay to rely on the No. 3 wideout, but he merits a fantasy roster spot and a chance that he eventually offers enough reliabilty to consider starting.
38	IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	He’s big and fast, but was limited as a rookie to only 40 catches. Now a uncertain situation with Carson Wentz throws risk at least into the early portion of the season. He’s a great pick at this spot and has the talent level to do much more when the Colts secure a decent passing game.
39	JAX	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Managed to post 58 catches as a rookie on a deteriorating Jacksonville offense but only gained 10.3 yards per catch. Solid pick at this point with some upside if Trevor Lawrence can meet expectations.
40	CIN	Tyler Boyd	Was a 1,000-yard sort of receiver until last year when Tee Higgins showed up. Now Ja’Marr Chase reunites with his college quarterback and Boyd looks lost in the shuffle. Bigger concern is that he’ll start the season well enough but fade later on as Chase starts to get back into the groove.
41	HOU	Brandin Cooks	The Texans offense looks like a train wreck, but Cooks managed 1,150 yards and six scores in his first season there. Stepping down from Deshaun Watson to Tyrod Taylor or even Davis Mills naturally drops Cooks’ outlook. But a No. 1 wideout on a team that will need to throw is worth picking up here and maybe even earlier.
42	LAC	Mike Williams	He’s had touchdowns with no yards, and then yards with no touchdowns. First year with Justin Herbert ended with 48 catches for 756 yards and five scores so in the middle for once. The 6-4 Williams offers a nice target for the developing Hebert, and losing Hunter Henry may help Williams.
43	MIA	Will Fuller	Four 100-yard games last year, missed five others and was mediocre in the rest. Fuller has the talent but not the durability. He’s missed at least five games in each of the last four seasons. Suspended to open the year.
44	CLE	Jarvis Landry	Landry offers a safe WR3 production at the cost of a backup. He’s a great bye week filler and can offer double-digit fantasy points in a PPR league as the possession receiver. No real upside but a solid performer worth plugging in when needed.
45	WAS	Curtis Samuel	He gets dinged up, but Samuel enters his fifth season and yet is only 24 years old. He finally became a decent receiver with 77 catches in Carolina, and he ran 41 times for 200 yards. Washington needs the help and should have improved passing. Samuel is finally stepping beyond being just a gimmick.
46	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	This is almost certainly an appropriate spot for a wideout that never produced more than 45 catches in any season for Alabama. He reunites with Tua Tagovailoa, but the Fins don’t seem completely sold on the quarterback so far. But Waddle played on a talent-rich Crimson Tide and should become the No. 1 wideout in Miami, if only eventually. He runs a 4.3 40-yard time and was drafted 1.06. Tons of upside and the Fins have one of the lightest passing schedules and yet a mediocre-looking run game.
47	KC	Mecole Hardman	He has a better opportunity with Sammy Watkins gone but then again – what did Watkins do? Hardman hasn’t made much dent into the prolific passing offense for the last two years. Demarcus Robinson also figures in so someone else can let Hardman disappoint for the third year in a row.
48	BAL	Marquise Brown	He hasn’t remotely made good on his selection in 2019 when he was the first wideout drafted. The Ravens brought in Sammy Watkins and drafted Rashod Bateman, so Brown’s road to relevancy may be even harder this year. Still – he was dynamic at Oklahoma and the Ravens have a much better passing schedule.
49	LV	Henry Ruggs III	Ruggs was just another Marquise Brown who offered speed but delivered an underwhelming rookie season. His 26 catches for 452 yards suggest he’s due for only an incremental increase for Year 2.
50	ATL	Russell Gage	Gage is a great pick at this spot. He replaces Julio Jones and already totaled 72 receptions last year. Granted – he doesn’t tack on much after the catch and, like Julio, hasn’t added many touchdowns. But he’s in a solid situation to see an uptick in production. He’s a great bye week cover and potential weekly plug-in if your roster goes bad.
51	DAL	Michael Gallup	Gallup fell to No. 3 with the addition of CeeDee Lamb. His 59 catches for 843 yards of 2020 feels more like his ceiling than floor. He’ll still offer some fantasy value, but any chance of a big game is almost impossible.
52	CHI	Darnell Mooney	He’s small at only 5-10 and 176 yards, but the fifth-round pick from Tulane surprised with 61 receptions for 631 yards as a rookie. He holds onto the No. 2 role across from Allen Robinson and was the No. 49 fantasy wideout in his first year. Once Andy Dalton falls to the wayside, Mooney can start gaining chemistry with Justin Fields, who can buy time and let Mooney use his 4.38 speed.
53	IND	T.Y. Hilton	At 31 years old, Hilton is on the downside of his career and only managed around 50 catches in each of the last two seasons. That seemed to be looking up with the stronger arm of Carson Wentz but now he’s out for an unknown amount of time. Hilton’s fine as a backup to see if he is safe to play, but his time as a no-brainer fantasy starter is over.
54	NYJ	Corey Davis	Davis looked like moving to the Jets would help his career. But then they added Keelan Cole and drafted Elijah Moore and retained Jamison Crowder. Add in a rookie quarterback on a rebuilding team with new coaches and schemes, and Davis looks like more risk than reward.
55	NYJ	Elijah Moore	The Ole Miss product runs a 4.35 40-time and will become the slot receiver. But the Jets also kept Jamison Crowder so Moore’s path to more receptions may take some time. This deep, he’s a decent roster add if you can wait a month or two.
56	BUF	Cole Beasley	Beasley made references to retiring because of COVID restrictions but has remained. The Bills added Emmanuel Sanders and want more from Gabriel Davis, so Beasley’s role is more likely to decline than increase.
57	MIA	DeVante Parker	His freakishly productive end to 2019 did not repeat and Parker floated back down to a more standard 63 catches for 793 yards last year. Adding Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller will not help Parker to rekindle the temporary mojo of 2019.
58	JAX	Marvin Jones	The 31-year-old moves to Jacksonville after a solid 2020 with 978 yards and nine touchdowns. But the aging receiver mixes in with DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault on a completely revamped offense with new coaches and a rookie quarterback. He signed a two-year deal, but the Jaguars can get out of it after this year.
59	BAL	Sammy Watkins	Moving from the Chiefs to the Ravens seems like a major downgrade, but Watkins had no chance behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. In Baltimore, all there is ahead of him is Marquise Brown, who has been a bust. Watkins drew rave reviews from the coaching staff and the Ravens want to throw more downfield. As a final draft pick, Watkins offers some upside.
60	NO	Tre’Quan Smith	The Saints haven’t decided on a quarterback and may not the entire year. Smith could actually benefit from Drew Brees leaving if they opt for Jameis Winston throwing deep balls. Worthy fantasy depth to see what happens.

Best of the Rest

Jakobi Meyers (NE) – Meyers caught 59 passes for 729 yards to lead an otherwise dismal passing offense for the Patriots last year. There are more targets in New England this year, but Jakobi already has earned a starting spot and meshed better with Cam Newton than any other receiver last year.

Darius Slayton (NYJ) – The Giants should keep Slayton as the split end this year while Kenny Golladay is the slot and flanker. Slayton’s 50-751-3 led the Giants’ receivers last year. He should maintain that level of production that ranked No. 53 last year. He’s only 25 years old and posted roughly the same stats as a rookie in 2019 as well.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) – Worthless if Jordan Love started, but worth owning as fantasy depth since Aaron Rodgers stayed. He has plenty of flops, but topped 100-yards twice last year.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends

2021 Sleeper and Value Plays at Tight End

A sleeper tight end is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Tight End
1	KC	Travis Kelce	Year-end rank the last five years = 1, 1, 1, 2, 1. Mic drop…
2	LV	Darren Waller	No. 2 tight end the last two years.
3	SF	George Kittle	Top-3 when healthy. Still a difference-maker.
4	ATL	Kyle Pitts	Why not? After the Top-3, the fantasy value always plunges. Rookie tight ends are almost never fantasy relevant but Pitts isn’t really a tight end so much as just a weapon wherever he lines up. When’s the last time anyone was this excited about a new tight end?
5	BAL	Mark Andrews	Tailed off some from his 2019 season when he was No. 5. He’s less risk than the remaining tight ends but a very marginal difference-maker, if at all.
6	DET	T.J. Hockenson	Third-year for the former 1.08 pick in 2019. Was No. 5 last year and should be even better. New offense and quarterback complicates forecasting, but he has as much upside as any other tight end. Better yet – you can grab him in the fifth or sixth round.
7	PHI	Dallas Goedert	Zach Ertz did not leave the Eagles (at least yet), so that dings Goedert a bit, and injuries depressed his 2020 stats. He’s a safe pick to offer average tight end fantasy points and has a bit of upside.
8	WAS	Logan Thomas	After a position change, five years and four teams, Thomas had 72-670-6 with Washington after only 35 previous career catches. His 110 targets came from quarterbacks no longer on the roster and even Ryan Fitzpatrick can throw deep – unlike Alex Smith. He’ll regress. He’s already 30 years old.
9	DEN	Noah Fant	Good spot for Fant who turned in 62-673-3 in his second year. The former first-rounder from 2019 still has room to grow.
10	NE	Hunter Henry	Henry never was better than the No. 10 fantasy tight end, so this may be a little high. The Pats coughed up $37.5M for three years, so they intend on using the 26-year-old.
11	GB	Robert Tonyan Jr.	He may regress from his 11 touchdowns last year, but Aaron Rodgers is back and Tonyan is once again fantasy relevant.
12	NYG	Evan Engram	Engram hasn’t been better than the No. 13 tight end for the last three years. There is no reason to expect that to change.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Tight End
13	TB	Rob Gronkowski	He’s a decent backup. He mixes in several great games with a number of flops, so you need to be lucky when you cover a bye week.
14	LAR	Tyler Higbee	Take away the five games that ended 2019 and Higbee is “just another tight end.” The departure of Gerald Everett could open things up for Higbee, and those five big games he had were when Everett was out (and they faced the worst defenses vs. tight ends). He could improve but new quarterback in Matt Stafford and throw deep.
15	MIA	Mike Gesicki	Gesicki was already the No. 7 tight end last year. Fins did add more wideouts this year, but Gesicki caught 23 passes over this final four games with Tua Tagovailoa. He’s a very nice backup to be sure.
16	MIN	Irv Smith Jr.	Kyle Rudolph is gone and the 2.18 pick out of Alabama in 2019 gets a better chance to step up. There’s conflicting reports from the Vikings as to whether Smith gets more work or not, but this deep he makes a great backup with upside.
17	NO	Adam Trautman	He’s on some sleeper lists but only managed 15 catches as a rookie. The Saints choose between Jameis Winston throwing deep or Taysom Hill running the ball. Trautman isn’t likely to do more than cover a bye week and maybe not that well.
18	LAC	Jared Cook	He’s 34 and on his sixth NFL team. But he still managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns for the Saints last year. Now with the Chargers, he’s worth a roster spot as a fall back since the Bolts are installing a new offense – the one Cook just came from in New Orleans.
19	NE	Jonnu Smith	He’s been locked at 400 yards or so each year with the Titans and had a freakish eight scores last year after never producing more than three behind Delanie Walker. Moving to the Pats as their No. 2 tight end isn’t likely to produce fantasy-relevant stats.
20	PHI	Zach Ertz	Now 30 years old, Ertz broke down last year and falls behind Dallas Goedert on the depth chart. He’s only interesting if he is traded to a team that needs an aging tight end.

Best of the Rest

Cole Kmet (CHI) – The first tight end drafted in 2020 enters his second year – when most tight ends take a leap. Well worth a backup pick. He’s fast and a better receiver than a blocker.

Eric Ebron (PIT) – The 28-year-old was the No. 15 fantasy tight end in his first season in Pittsburgh last year. He merits being one of the earlier backups drafted.

Fantasy football sleepers and fliers: June edition

The top fantasy football sleepers and late-round fliers for 2021.

The official list of sleepers and busts will come from the fingertips of David Dorey later this summer, but my personal favorites are already here to tide you over. In this release, sleepers, deep sleepers (late fliers) and undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.

Top fantasy football sleepers for 2021

1) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 9:05)

The 2021 third-rounder from Ohio State is an ideal fit for San Fran’s zone-blocking scheme. The backfield will be a time-share situation, pitting the rookie against Raheem Mostert for the primary workload to begin the year. Jeff Wilson Jr. suffered a torn meniscus and opted for immediate knee surgery. His prognosis is four to six months of recovery, which practically assures he will miss the first month or more of the season. Mostert battled injuries of his own last year and really has only a handful of productive games in his career. Sermon sits atop this list for his potential to steal the show and dominate the touch split. While there may be concern if fellow rookie Trey Lance starts at quarterback, it should work in Sermon’s favor by way of more rushing attempts due to an increased reliance on the ground game. Mostert’s injury concerns and Wilson’s recovery timeline should have gamers pleased to take a gamble on Sermon’s Sunday services. Expect his ADP to rise dramatically with the news of Wilson going on the mend.

2) TE Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 14:06)

The offense lost coordinator Arthur Smith to the Atlanta Falcons in the offseason, leading to the promotion of Todd Downing. He spent the past two years as tight ends coach in Tennessee and previously served as the OC of the then-Oakland Raiders in 2017. Even though his lone season calling plays for the Raiders was more or less an unmitigated disaster, largely due to a lack of feel for in-game, situational nuances, tight end Jared Cook was second on the team with catches (54) and third in targets (86). Firkser has flashed a few times and is poised for a strong season in an offense that is starving for someone to ascend behind wideout A.J. Brown.

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3) RB Javian Hawkins, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 18:05)

Hawkins is an undrafted rookie from Louisville and profiles similarly to a Darren Sproles type — undersized at 5-foot-8, 183 pounds and a natural catcher out of the backfield. Atlanta signed journeyman Mike Davis after he posted quality numbers in Christian McCaffrey’s absences last year. The veteran needs help, even though he’s a gifted receiver in his own right, and Hawkins has little proven talent ahead of him. Atlanta’s defense is a hot mess, which will inevitably lead to more passing than Arthur Smith would like to see. Additionally, the likely departure of WR Julio Jones will free up a serious number of targets. Hawkins is unlikely to assume the bulk of the backfield touches, although it is worth noting there is a reason it took Davis four teams over six years before really breaking through in fantasy. At worst, Hawkins is a weekly PPR play in tandem with Davis.

4) WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 10:12)

The second-year wideout has a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, so making everything click early on will be imperative for his season-long success. Carson Wentz has been reunited with his past play-caller and current head coach in Frank Reich, returning him to a comfortable setting and mindset. The Colts need a possession receiver to move the chains. T.Y. Hilton returns but isn’t quite as dynamic as he once was down the field. There are other pass-catching options in the mix, too, such as RB Nyheim Hines and tight end Jack Doyle, so Pittman’s volume is capped to a fair degree. Pittman missed three games last year with injury but still cobbled together a respectable Year 1 campaign and could emerge as a competent WR2 in PPR as the season unfolds.

5) TE Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 14:04)

This one is somewhat dependent upon which quarterback — Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill — wins the starting job. Either way, Trautman should be heavily involved, but his ceiling is much greater with Winston under center as the primary QB. In the event the former Buccaneer is indeed the Week 1 starter, we’ll see Hill mixed in with regularity. Winston’s 2019 season resulted in 108 combined targets sent toward TEs Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. That Bucs offense had two receivers see at least 118 looks, and this year’s Saints team will struggle to field a viable WR2 behind Michael Thomas. Trautman was a project of sorts coming out of Dayton in 2020 as a third-round selection, but the system is friendly to the position’s success, and Sean Payton loves to see himself proven correct when it comes to personnel decisions. The 6-foot-5, 255-pound Trautman could be this year’s breakthrough tight end, especially near the stripe.

6) WR Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 12:03)

Remember him? Ruggs, a first-round choice in 2020, was basically useless in fantasy football as a rookie. He enjoyed a Week 5 line of 2-118-1 as his best fantasy performance of the year. The Alabama standout failed to catch more than three balls in any of his 13 games, and he saw five targets (twice) as a high-water mark for involvement. That has to change if the Raiders have any chance of taking this offense to the next level. The talent around him really hasn’t upgraded in any significant way to steal looks. It’s unfair to hold Ruggs’ rookie season against him in a historical context given the unprecedented offseason and lack of traditional teaching moments on the field prior to Week 1. It didn’t hurt some rookies, but some benefit of the doubt must be granted for an objective perspective of Ruggs’ 2021 outlook. Few receivers could have as glaring of a jump in production from Year 1 to 2 as this burner.

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7) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (ADP: 14:03)

Opportunity is arguably the most important factor in fantasy football success for rookies, and there aren’t many better situations around the league than what is presented to the USC product. St. Brown has NFL bloodlines in Green Bay Packers wideout Equanimeous St. Brown, which helps his learning curve a great deal. Amon-Ra was a freshman contributor with the Trojans, illustrating a history of picking up a system quickly and not being overwhelmed by a new experience. The Lions seriously lack weaponry in the passing game. It won’t be a surprise if tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift combine for 180 receptions or more, but there’s still roughly 180 in that case to be distributed. It’s fair to effectively write off Breshad Perriman at this stage of his career, and who knows what we’ll get from Tyrell Williams after a shoulder injury cost him the 2020 season. The younger St. Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the team’s receivers in targets from the slot, which could result in a line somewhere around 60 catches for 900 yards and four or five TDs from the hand of Jared Goff. Not explosive numbers, but serviceable, nonetheless.

8) TE Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 16:10)

A change of scenery and major upgrade at quarterback cannot hurt, but Everett has the immense benefit of already knowing the offensive system he’s entering in Seattle. New coordinator Shane Waldron will be calling the shots in the Pacific Northwest, and Everett will see plenty of familiarity in the designs after spending the past four years with Waldron in Sean McVay’s system. Seattle’s passing game will go through Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but a rookie (D’Wayne Eskridge) is poised to man the No. 3 gig, which could go either direction with greater likelihood for a typical first-year showing. Everett is unlikely to see top-12 tight end volume, so his clearest path to success will come via trips to the end zone. Six touchdowns came from 2020 No. 3 receiver David Moore, and as many or more could go the tight end’s direction. If something were to happen to either primary wideout, Everett will be a weekly starter at a volatile fantasy position.

9) New York Giants, D/ST (ADP: 19:09)

Perhaps undervalued is a better term for the Giants, but sleeper works after this defense upgraded following a 12th-place showing in 2020 fantasy scoring. Between incoming personnel improvements and maturation gains, the Giants are poised to capitalize on an underrated showing in fake football from a season ago. Veteran cornerback Adoree’ Jackson joins an already talented secondary, and former Washington linebacker Ryan Anderson adds a blue-collar presence to the front seven. Giving Dallas the benefit of the doubt with Dak Prescott’s return still leaves four games against Jalen Hurts and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Giants also face Denver, New Orleans, Carolina, Miami and Chicago with inexperienced/susceptible quarterbacks.

10) Denver Broncos, D/ST (ADP: 18:05)

Bradley Chubb and Von Miller should return to full strength to create one of the most formidable pass rushes in the game. Vic Fangio’s system will be fully implemented for 2021, and the secondary underwent quite possibly the most impressive upgrade over the offseason. First-round cornerback Patrick Surtain II is as NFL-ready as they come out of college. Ronald Darby comes over as one of the more underrated defensive backs, and Kyle Fuller’s surprising release by the Bears reunites him with Fangio. A quick look at the schedule shows exploitable matchups with presumed starting quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence (in his second pro game), Zach Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jalen Hurts, and Jared Goff.

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Intriguing late-round gambles

1) RB Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 23:05)

How much do you trust Joe Mixon to stay healthy for 17 games? After an admirable effort in 2020, Perine could be more than just a handcuff after the release of Giovani Bernard, particularly if Mixon is throttled a little after playing only one full season in his career. He has competition from Pooka Williams, Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, so recognize this is a volatile situation.

2) RB Brian Hill, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 22:03)

The former Atlanta Falcon comes over to battle Darrynton Evans and Jeremy McNichols — stiff competition *eye-roll emoji* — for the primary backup chores to Derrick Henry. After amassing such a heavy workload in recent seasons, the burly back could be closer to missing time via injury, making his backup extremely valuable in this run-heavy system.

3) WR Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP: 20:05)

Perriman is on his fifth team in as many seasons, and a rookie is largely the impediment for Williams returning to WR3 status. Detroit is in dire straits at the position, especially if St. Brown cannot ascend as detailed above.

4) WR Josh Reynolds, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 18:03)

Perhaps he belongs in the top-10 sleepers list … the former LA Ram has a vacancy begging to be filled after Corey Davis walked in free agency, but we’ve seen enough from Reynolds to remain skeptical of a huge leap in statistical returns.

5) WR Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 19:10)

Jefferson has the skills to shine but lacks the clear opportunity to get it done. He’s only draftable in best-ball leagues but belongs in the back of your mind in the event something happens to Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods.

6) WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans (ADP: 17:10)

The 6-foot-4 rookie has a decent opportunity to become a weapon in the red zone, and the Texans have a lack of established playmakers after Brandin Cooks to expand his upside. However, the looming concerns with Deshaun Watson overshadows any positive working in Collins’ favor.