Tag: 2021 fantasy football playoffs

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 15

A look at the most meaningful fantasy football streaks.

The fantasy football postseason is upon us in the majority of leagues, and team managers will be eager to keep riding — or seeking to avoid — the hottest hands.

So, with momentum in mind, we’re highlighting the currently active player performance streaks of note in this week’s TT&T and breaking down what they mean for the fantasy playoffs. Streak data, it must be mentioned, comes courtesy of the Stathead database maintained by the informative folks at ProFootballReference.com

Here goes, kicking off with …

Consecutive games with multiple TD passes

6: Kirk Cousins, Vikings

4: Justin Herbert, Chargers

3: Aaron Rodgers, Packers; Matthew Stafford, Rams; Russell Wilson, Seahawks

2: Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers; Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers;

Quick takeaways:

  • That only five quarterbacks own current streaks of three or more games with multiple TD tosses shows how much volatility there is, even at fantasy’s most consistent position on a week-to-week basis.
  • Cousins, the No. 1 QB on this list, continues to fly under the fantasy radar for the most part. He’s sixth at the position with 301.4 total fantasy points (Huddle Performance scoring) and has had at least 19.9 fantasy points in all six contests during his current TD-pass streak and in 10 of 13 games overall this season.
  • Basically written off early in the season, Jimmy G and Big Ben now are very much a part of the QB2/fill-in starter conversation, and both have fantasy playoff schedules (Weeks 15-17) ranked among the four most favorable at the position, according to The Huddle’s handy Strength of Schedule tool.

Consecutive games with 275-plus passing yards

4: Herbert, Chargers; Rodgers, Packers

3: Stafford, Rams

2: Brady, Buccaneers; Joe Burrow, Bengals; Garoppolo, 49ers

Quick takeaways:

  • During his four-game span, from Week 11-14, Herbert paced all quarterbacks with 1,277 aerial yards, 11 TD tosses and 112.18 total fantasy points. On the season, the Bolts’ second-year QB has climbed up to third at this position in total fantasy points (349.9) and TDs (30) and fourth in passing yards (3,822). He also ranks a surprising ninth among quarterbacks with 268 rushing yards and has tallied a pair of rushing TDs.
  • Burrow hit the 300-yard passing mark only twice in his first 11 games this season, but now has done it in back-to-back weeks with 300 and 348, respectively, in shootout-esque losses to the Chargers and 49ers.

[lawrence-related id=462929]

Consecutive games with a rushing/receiving TD

10: Jonathan Taylor, Colts

7: James Conner, Cardinals

6: Cam Newton, Panthers, Patriots

5: Austin Ekeler, Chargers; Alvin Kamara, Saints

4: Deebo Samuel, 49ers

3: Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers; Javonte Williams, Broncos

Quick takeaways:

  • Remember way back when Taylor hadn’t found his way into the end zone? Amazingly, that was the situation as we entered Week 4, but in the 10 games since, all the second-year Indy back has done is total 18 TDs — which leads Conner and Ekeler by two on the season as a whole.
  • As you can see, Newton’s touchdown streak dates back to his final two games with the Patriots, which included a receiving TD in Week 17 of 2020 — his final game in New England. But, as also must be noted with Cam circa 2021, he has as many rushing/receiving scores (six) as he does passing TDs during this six-game span, including a 4-to-3 rushing-to-passing edge in four games this season with Carolina.

Consecutive games with 15-plus touches

47: Derrick Henry, Titans

10: Taylor, Colts

7: Dalvin Cook, Vikings; Myles Gaskin, Dolphins; Kamara, Saints

5: Fournette, Buccaneers

4: A.J. Dillon, Packers; Devonta Freeman, Ravens

Quick takeaways:

  • Henry’s eye-popping streak, which began in Week 14 of the 2018 season, is the fourth-longest such streak since the 1970 merger, trailing only runs by LaDainian Tomlinson (72 games from 2003-08), Walter Payton (69 games from 1977-81) and Marcus Allen (1983-86). Henry, who has been out since suffering a Halloween foot injury in the Week 8 overtime win over the Colts, could return before the regular season is over, but it’ll likely be too late to matter in deciding most league championships.
  • Some might be surprised to see Gaskin included here, but he ranks 11th in the league with 199 total touches in 13 games this season and has averaged 19.4 during his current seven-game, 15-touch streak which began in Week 7. Gaskin did test positive for COVID-19 during Miami’s Week 14 bye, and will need to be cleared this week if he’s to play next Sunday against the Jets.

Consecutive games with 100-plus scrimmage yards (RBs)

5: Cook, Vikings

2: Conner, Cardinals; Kamara, Saints; Najee Harris, Steelers

Quick takeaways:

  • Yikes, this list is even shorter than we thought it would be, and consider that Cook had a week off (Week 13) during his streak due to a shoulder injury and that Kamara had four games off (Weeks 10-13) in between his two games as he dealt with a knee injury.
  • Of course it should be noted that the Colts’ Taylor — the league leader with 1,684 yards from scrimmage — was only three yards in Week 12 away from a current 10-game streak of 100-plus-yard outings. Taylor is averaging 129.5 scrimmage yards per contest and has a whopping 414 more yards than the next closest running back (Harris) on the season.
  • Kamara’s 27 rushing attempts Sunday against the Jets marked a career high, while his 31 total touches matched a personal best and marked only the third time in 76 career contests he’s logged as many as 30 in a game.

Consecutive games with 100-plus scrimmage yards (WRs + TEs)

3: Davante Adams, Packers; Tee Higgins, Bengals; Hunter Renfrow, Raiders

2: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers; George Kittle, 49ers; Cooper Kupp, Rams

Quick takeaways:

  • While rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has received most of the fantasy fanfare, ranking seventh among wideouts with 225.6 total fantasy points (PPR scoring) on the season, Higgins has paced all league wideouts with 366 yards over the last three weeks and ranks only behind Kupp (76.8), Renfrow (71.5) and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson with 68.6 total fantasy points over that span. Chase, meanwhile, has totaled 168 receiving yards and 42.4 fantasy points over those three games.
  • Prior to his current three-game century-mark run, Renfrow had only topped 100 receiving yards in two of his previous 39 career games. And those came in back-to-back contests (Weeks 16 and 17) of his rookie season in 2019.
  • Although he’s missed three of the 49ers’ 13 games, Kittle ranks third among league tight ends with 170.1 total PPR points. A full 43.3 percent (73.7) of those points have come over the last two weeks as Kittle has caught 22-of-27 targets for 332 yards and three TDs against the Seahawks and Bengals. Kittle is now averaging a position-most 17.0 fantasy points per game, and the Ravens’ Mark Andrews (15.7), the Bucs’ Rob Gronkowski (15.5) and the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce (15.1) are the only other tight ends averaging more than 13 fantasy points per outing.

Consecutive games with seven-plus receptions

9: Cooper Kupp, Rams

4: Adams, Packers

3: Antonio Brown, Buccaneers; Renfrow, Raiders; Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins

2: Godwin, Buccaneers; Jefferson, Vikings; Kittle, 49ers; CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Quick takeaways:

  • Kupp, who entered Week 14 as the only player in league history with 100 or more catches and double-digit receiving TDs in the first 12 games of the season, went ahead and tacked on a career-high 13 receptions for 123 yards and a TD in Monday night’s win over the Cardinals. Kupp has had double-digit targets and at least seven catches in 12 of his 13 games this season and is easily on track to win the receiving “triple crown” as he’s currently pacing the league in receptions (113), receiving yards (1,489) and TD catches (12) on a league-most 151 targets.
  • Renfrow, who had 105 total receptions on 148 targets over his first two seasons, is tied for fifth in the league with 86 catches but is 16th with 106 targets. That’s a model of efficiency with Renfrow’s 81.1 percent catch rate trailing only Cardinals rookie Rondale Moore’s among wideouts with at least 50 targets.
  • Brown, the Motor City rookie, has reeled in 18-of-24 targets for 159 yards and a TD over the last two weeks for a total of 40.1 fantasy points after averaging 4.7 targets, 3.5 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards and 6.7 fantasy points over his first 11 games.

Consecutive games with 15-plus PPR points

10: Taylor, Colts

9: Kupp, Rams

6: Keenan Allen, Chargers

5: Conner, Cardinals; Kamara, Saints

4: Ekeler, Chargers; Diontae Johnson, Steelers

Quick takeaways:

  • Allen, who is expected to return Thursday in Week 15 after missing Sunday’s game against the Giants due to a positive COVID-19 test, has put up double-digit fantasy points in all 12 of his games this season with high-water marks of 22.4 in Weeks 9 and 13. For the year, he’s had at least 14.8 fantasy points in all but a three-game stretch from Week 4-6.
  • Cards RB Chase Edmonds is due back soon from ankle injury sustained early in the team’s Week 9 game against the 49ers, but Arizona isn’t in too much of a rush with Conner having totaled at least 15.4 fantasy points in every outing during that five-game stretch starting in Week 9. Even more impressive, Conner averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game during that span, which trailed only Taylor’s 31.6 average among running backs. For the season, Conner ranks sixth at the position with 221.4 total PPR points (17.0 per game).

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 13

Breaking down playoff outlooks for struggling fantasy assets.

The 2021 fantasy football stretch run is upon us with two more regular-season weeks giving way to the start of the postseason in Week 15 in the majority of leagues.

Hopefully, most of your fantasy teams either have locked up a playoff berth or are about to. But if you need to win out to have a shot at one of the final postseason berths in your league (you can’t see it, of course, but I’m raising my hand here), you’re likely counting on several key players to reverse their recent fortunes or shed their disappointment labels just in time to save your season.

With that very scenario in mind, this week’s TT&T looks at some of fantasy’s most disappointing players of November (Weeks 9-12) and assesses their “hope” or “heartbreak” potential for December when we’re not only trying to qualify for the playoffs but make some noise once we get there.

Here goes, starting (as usual) at …

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

November’s numbers: After ranking as fantasy’s best quarterback over the season’s first eight weeks with 26 total touchdowns, five interceptions and an average of 27 fantasy points per game (performance PPR scoring), Brady averaged only 17.2 fantasy points during November (14th among QBs who played in multiple games) with five total TDs and four interceptions in three contests.

December’s outlook: Hope, most definitely

The Bucs rolled up 38 points Sunday in Indy, but touchdown fortune wasn’t with Brady as Tampa Bay scored four rushing TDs in the game after entering the day with eight in their first 10 contests.

Help also is on the way as wide receiver Antonio Brown is due back any week from the ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 4, and he and Brady can try to rekindle their strong connection, which produced four TD hookups in five games.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who only played six snaps in the Bucs’ six games from Weeks 4-10, also looks to be getting healthier at the right time as he had a season-high 123 receiving yards on seven receptions and 10 targets Sunday.

Combine those two with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the under-the-radar emergence of RB Leonard Fournette as a dangerous pass-catching back (tied for third among RBs with 51 receptions), and Brady’s weapons take a backseat to none.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: The Cincy sophomore averaged only 13.6 fantasy points (25th among QBs with multiple starts) with just three total TDs in his three contests this month after averaging 21.9 (10th among QBs) with 20 total TDs during the season’s first eight weeks.

December’s outlook: Hope

Running back Joe Mixon’s November tear (second among RBs with 352 rushing yards and six TDs during the month) has certainly cut into Burrow’s fantasy production, but with a more formidable slate rushing defenses awaiting the Bengals in December, Burrow likely will need to air it out more to keep Cincy in the AFC playoff picture.

Burrow is getting healthier as he moves further away from his 2020 knee injury, and his upper-level cast of weapons (WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and TE C.J. Uzomah) is still intact as well.

So don’t be surprised in the least to see a Burrow bounce-back next month.

Running backs

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

November’s numbers: Henderson totaled the 10th-most fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) among running backs through the season’s first eight weeks, averaging 17.5 points per outing. In his three games since, Henderson has totaled 34.2 points (11.4 per outing), which ranked 30th at the position in November. And that total was boosted significantly by his 17.3-point game Sunday afternoon in Green Bay.

December’s outlook: Hope

Henderson remains one of the league’s true No. 1 backs, having played 68.8 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season and averaging a healthy 16.9 touches per game.

The Rams’ passing game, meanwhile, is showing late-season signs of slippage and wear and tear, so don’t be surprised if the Rams lean on Henderson even more down the stretch as they look to right themselves from their current three-game losing streak.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

November’s numbers: Jones returned from a one-game, knee-injury absence Sunday but only had 23 yards on 10 carries without a reception in the team’s 36-28 win over the Rams. Emerging backup A.J. Dillon, meanwhile, totaled 90 yards and a TD on a career-high 25 touches. In three November games, Jones totaled 20.2 PPR points (6.7 per outing) after averaging 18.1 (eighth among RBs) over the Pack’s first eight games.

December’s outlook: More heartbreak

[lawrence-related id=462551]

Green Bay has its bye in Week 13, which does provide extra recovery time for Jones, but it’s brutal timing for Jones’ fantasy teams desperately in need of a win this coming weekend.

Even more concerning, though, is Dillon’s emergence. While Jones was averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game in November (48th among RBs), Dillon was averaging 18.9 (eighth at the position) while averaging 19.3 touches per outing, including 17 total receptions (fifth among RBs) for 171 yards and a TD.

The cat is now out of the bag, and it looks to be a full-blown RB timeshare now in Green Bay. That’s less than ideal for those who were counting on a return to RB1 production down the stretch for Jones.

Wide receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

November’s numbers: Over the first eight weeks, this Cincinnati rookie was on a record pace with 38 receptions for 786 yards and seven TDs on 60 targets — good for 159.3 total PPR points and an average of 19.9 per game, ranking fifth among wideouts. His three contests since Halloween, though, has brought a frightening drop-off with 12 catches for 120 yards and one TD on 22 targets — good for all of 30.8 fantasy points and an average of only 10.3 per game (40th at the position).

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Has Chase hit the proverbial rookie wall or have opposing defenses simply caught up?

It sure looks to be some of both as Chase’s targets-per-game average has only declined slightly from 7.5 to 7.3 over the two spans, while his average yards per catch (20.7 to 10.1) and target (13.1 to 5.5) have fallen off precipitously.

But like his quarterback’s December forecast above, there is fantasy optimism. Just realize that WR2 production is likely now the ceiling rather than a sudden return to the elite WR1 numbers Chase was putting up with regularity over the first half of the season.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

November’s numbers: Cooks on Sunday had his best fantasy showing (13.5 points) in a month, but that it only ranked 24th at the position in Week 12 speaks volumes about how disappointing November has been for the Texans’ top fantasy asset. In three games during the month, Cooks has only caught 11-of-21 targets for 119 yards and one TD for a total of 28.9 fantasy points or an average of 9.6 per game (43rd among WRs). In Weeks 1-8, Cooks averaged 15.3 fantasy points per contest to rank 23rd at the position — and that was with struggling rookie Davis Mills starting six of those eight games.

December’s outlook: Slim hope

You would think the 2-9 Texans will need to throw plenty to stay in games down the stretch, but through Week 12, the Texans were averaging only 31.6 passing attempts (27th in the league) and 20.5 completions (26th) per game.

Cooks, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 targets, 3.7 receptions and 39.7 yards per outing over his last three games, but we (hopefully) should see those averages bump up slightly to WR3 levels during the coming stretch run.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

November’s numbers: Just when Metcalf’s fantasy general managers were convinced things couldn’t get any worse for the third-year wide receiver, along came Monday night’s game in Washington in which he finished with one reception for 13 yards on four targets — his worst fantasy outing (2.3 points) over the last two seasons. That gave him a total of eight catches for 70 yards and no TDs for 15 fantasy points in three November games — a far cry from the dominant wideout who ranked 10th at the position with an average of 18.1 fantasy points per outing over his first eight games.

December’s outlook: WR2 hope

At a shocking 3-8 — the second-worst record in the NFC — the Seahawks appear headed toward the second playoff-less campaign in QB Russell Wilson’s 10 seasons with the franchise.

Could Seattle throttle things down once it’s officially eliminated from playoff contention? Perhaps, but not likely.

Despite the brutal game for Metcalf on Monday, Wilson did easily look his best since returning from his finger injury absence in Week 10.

And while a return to WR1 production over the next five games is a long shot for Metcalf, it’s not hard to envision a significant reversal of fantasy fortune for the freakishly talented wideout in the coming weeks with a near-full-capacity Wilson and nothing left to lose for the Seahawks.

Tight ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

November’s numbers: The fourth-overall pick in last spring’s draft looked like he was going to shatter the struggling-rookie-tight-end stigma after averaging 12.5 PPR points over his first eight games. But he’s followed that up with a 7.4 average in November (21st among tight ends), catching only 12 of 25 targets for 177 yards and no TDs in four games.

December’s outlook: Ample hope

Pitts still easily leads the Falcons and ranks sixth among all tight ends with 75 targets, and is 661 receiving yards trail only Travis Kelce (821) and Mark Andrews (761) at the position.

If his relatively low catch percentage (60.0) improves at all while his volume more or less holds steady and his TD production improves (he remains stuck on one), Pitts will jump back into the TE1 conversation real quick.