The Pittsburgh Pirates (59-97) open a 3-game set with the St. Louis Cardinals (90-66) Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cardinals lead 10-3
The Pirates come into the Gateway City as winners of 3 games in a row and 4 of 5. They have 24-year-old RHP Johan Oviedo on the bump today in his first matchup against the team that traded him for LHP Jose Quintana at the trade deadline.
Oviedo has a great arm, but his control is spotty. Before we even get into the meat of this, I love OVIEDO OVER 3.5 K’s (-117). He has struck out 4+ in all but 1 start this year.
St. Louis has really taken its foot off the pedal, losing 6 of its last 10 contests, but having clinched the NL Central title along the way. However, the Cardinals come in rested after using a skeleton lineup Wednesday after clinching the division and a day off Thursday. It might take a couple of innings, but they should be ready to hit.
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Pirates at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Johan Oviedo vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Oviedo (4-2, 3.13 ERA) makes his 7th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 46 IP.
- Last 5 starts since trade to Pirates: 2-1, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
- 1-3, 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 48 IP at Busch Stadium in his career (as a member of Cardinals)
Flaherty (1-1, 4.97 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 29 IP.
- Last 4 starts: 1-1, 4.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
- 4 home starts: 15 IP, 17 H, 8 ER (4.80 ERA), 7 BB, 16 K
Pirates at Cardinals odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Pirates +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Cardinals -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-135) | Cardinals -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Pirates at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 7, Pirates 3
Money line
This is the first time the Cards return home since capturing the NL Central crown. The place will be abuzz, and Oviedo will be motivated to show them the horse they gave up. But, he’ll have trouble getting through the lineup 2 or 3 times.
Conversely, Flaherty has really struggled to throw strikes after missing much of the season. His mechanics just aren’t there, and his arm talent is guiding him. There will be runs on both sides early. OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-122) feels like a given, and I would consider OVER 4.5 RUNS FIRST 5 (+133) for a HALF-UNIT as well.
Run line/Against the spread
The Cards are 10-3 against the Bucs this year, and 8 of those were decided by more than a run. There’s an outside chance that Oviedo will contain his former mates and hurl a gem, but he has historically hit a wall in the 4th and 5th innings. That’s where the home team will get it in.
Take the CARDINALS -1.5 (+110) at plus money.
Over/Under
Eight runs feels like a bargain. These two have bludgeoned each other for 8 runs in 11 of the 13 games. Flaherty has given up 3 ER in 3 straight starts, and Oviedo has in 4 of 7. The wind is blowing in on a 64-degree day, but it won’t matter. Take the OVER 7.5 (+110) and thank us later.
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