Fantasy Football Sleepers and Undervalued Picks – Page 4

9 sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 1

Here are nine sleepers to consider starting in your fantasy football lineups for Week 1.

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.

While Thanos (probably) wasn’t referring to fantasy football when he said that line, Week 1 is officially here. That means fantasy managers will begin their trek of controlling their own destiny and aspirations of winning a league title.

The draft season has come and gone in a blur. Now, it’s time to set the lineups and dominate your league-mates. Part of that process is finding the right sleepers week in and week out.

It’s the ultimate plan that every fantasy manager searches for. Fortunately, we’re here to help with this weekly sleepers article.

We will be using The Huddle’s weekly projections and rankings as a reference. In order to qualify as a sleeper, we are taking a look at quarterbacks ranked outside the top 12, running backs and wide receivers ranked outside the top 24, and tight ends ranked outside the top 10.

We’ve already taken a look at the top waiver wire targets and streaming options. Here are nine sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 1:

Fantasy Football: 7 running backs for last-second drafters to target

These running backs aren’t getting the love they deserve in fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy football managers love sleepers, players who end up outperforming their average draft position (ADP) and return great value during the season.

With limited workhorse running backs in the NFL, it can be especially important to land value picks at RB, a position that gets thin quickly after the early rounds of the draft.

Here’s a quick look at seven sleeper running backs who could provide great depth to your roster and potentially become starter-worthy RBs at some point during the season.

Fantasy Football: 5 sleeper quarterbacks for 2022 season

These sleeper quarterbacks could add great value to your roster in fantasy football.

It’s going to be hard to land Josh Allen, the assumed QB1, in fantasy football this year because his stock is off the charts.

If you’re OK with passing on Allen — and the rest of the consensus top-12 QBs — in your fantasy draft, it’s still possible to find good QB value later in the draft with sleeper picks at the position.

Here’s a quick look at five sleeper quarterbacks to consider for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football: 5 sleeper tight ends for 2022 season

These tight ends could be sleepers in fantasy football this season.

Fantasy football managers love finding sleepers – players who are going toward the end of drafts despite having high upside for the upcoming season.

At tight end specifically, Pat Freiermuth and Cole Kmet are too well known to really be considered sleepers at this point, so this list is made up of deeper sleepers for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football draft strategy: Must-have players after Round 8

Come away from your draft with these late-round sleepers.

While fantasy football leagues can be won and lost in the early draft rounds, it tends to be the latter half of the selection process where savvy owners separate themselves from the pack.

Average draft position (ADP) figures can vary wildly from service to service, so we’re using an aggregate of four prominent sites to establish as close to a uniform valuation as possible.

Let’s dive into the top-12 targets for success after Round 8 in conventional PPR redraft leagues.

5 sleeper defensive teams to target in fantasy football drafts

These defensive units can help gamers on the cheap.

While most fantasy football owners wait until the last couple of rounds to select their defenses, some groups out there perhaps aren’t getting the level of respect they deserve. With that in mind, here are five defenses to consider utilizing a pick on after the marquee selections come off the board.

5 late-round fantasy football tight end fliers

These tight ends could bolster fantasy rosters with little investment needed.

Injuries happen. It’s just the nature of the NFL, and the fallout has ruined many a fantasy season over the years. After all, there’s nothing quite like the sting of losing your first-round pick a month into the season. That’s the game, however, and it’s why finding good depth at the end of drafts is so vital. With that in mind, here are five tight ends to consider in the later rounds.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs

2022 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Running Back
1	IND	Jonathan Taylor	Was No. 1 last year, has better schedule this year. Same system designed around him.
2	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	When he plays, he consistently a top fantasy play. When he plays, he’s a dual-threat and a monster weekly starter. When he plays… When he plays… feel lucky?
3	TEN	Derrick Henry	King Henry was mortal last year. After two seasons of historic usage, the foot gave out last October. He’s back and they’ll be significantly lightening his load to keep him fresh… who am I kidding? The only question on most plays is which side of the line he’ll be crashing through.
4	LAC	Austin Ekeler	He will miss one or two games. But he’ll always challenge for most receptions by a RB. Draft Spiller and sleep better.
5	PIT	Najee Harris	381 touches as a rookie. New QB(s), same mediocre O-line and worse schedule but hey, may end up with another 381 touches.
6	MIN	Dalvin Cook	Great when healthy but always misses three or four games. New offense intends to throw more, run less. Still a safe pick but likely to take a small step back from previous seasons.
7	DET	D’Andre Swift	Productive when he isn’t missing three or four games per year. Great O-line and great schedule points at a career-high year if he stays on the field.
8	CIN	Joe Mixon	Blew up as the No. 4 RB last year. Dangerous passing offense means Mixon gets less focus. Rock-solid Top-10 with upside.
9	CLE	Nick Chubb	This is about where he ends up every year. Top rusher but only around one reception per game.
10	GB	Aaron Jones	Loss of Davante Adams may mean Jones could top his career-high 52 catches of last year, but GB has a terrible rushing schedule and AJ Dillon gets more involved. This is a little high, but his risk is balanced with minor upside as a receiver.
11	NO	Alvin Kamara	This is a steal if his legal situation gets pushed out to 2023 and he plays all 17 games. He’s always a lock for Top-10 and offense remains the same from last year.
12	DEN	Javonte Williams	No.17 as a rookie last year, gets a better QB in Russell Wilson. He’d be a Top-10 lock if Melvin Gordon did not re-sign. One of the most talented young backs.
13	NYG	Saquon Barkley	Third time a charm or that dog just won’t hunt anymore? This assumes that he’ll be back to form but miss a few games. Bad O-line a little better but schedule is even worse.
14	TB	Leonard Fournette	Oddity is that Fournette alternates great seasons with down years. Signed a big contract and is reliable for the Bucs, but 2021 was No. 6, 2020 was No. 34, 2019 was No. 7, 2018 was No. 38. Needs to break that trend.
15	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Down 2021 with a torn PCL but still his fifth-straight Top-10 season. Some believe Tony Pollard is better, but not the DAL coaching staff. O-line still an advantage and this assumes he has the worst year of his career. Because of voidable contract years, this is actually a contract season for him so plenty to play for in 2022.
16	CHI	David Montgomery	Great 2020 was sandwiched by two years around No. 20. New offense hints more use of Khalil Herbert, so Montgomery remains solid but less upside and runs behind arguably the worst O-line in the NFL.
17	ARI	James Conner	First year in ARI was best of his career. He was No. 5 last year, so this seems a hard drop after scoring 18 TDs in 2021. Will get banged up for a game or two, but this is a great value pick for a guy that faced the No. 32 rushing schedule strength and upgrades to only average.
18	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	Blew an ACL a year ago and missed last season. Was No. 28 as a rookie and still plays in a committee backfield. Better schedule this year but O-line a little worse. Plus BAL told Lamar Jackson he can run wild again.
19	WAS	Antonio Gibson	Has never been worse than No. 14 in his two seasons and WAS has a nice upgrade in running strength of schedule. But Commanders leaning to more of a committee this year with a healthy J.D. McKissic and short-yardage rookie Brian Robinson. This is a safe spot. Maybe less upside now.
20	LAR	Cam Akers	Finished rookie season on a high note, but then tore Achilles. Somehow returned for playoffs but looked bad. More risk here than this spot should have. HC Sean McVay even referred to Darrell Henderson as big factor in the backfield. Also drops from No. 3 down to No. 24 rushing strength of schedule.
21	SF	Elijah Mitchell	Everything they expected – from Trey Sermon. Mitchell was one of the best surprises of 2021. Was wildly productive with five 100-yard rushing games. Also missed six games and suffered five injuries (shoulder, rib, finger, concussion, knee) all in one year. Just very risky on an offense that changes the backfield constantly. Raheem Mostert was a similar star in 2019.
22	LVR	Josh Jacobs	Always Top-20 and was No. 8 in 2020. But all new coaches bring in an RBBC history and drafted Zamir White to help. Kenyan Drake returns from an ankle injury and worse yet, Raiders fall from No. 20 to No. 32 rushing schedule.
23	JAC	Travis Etienne	Love that upside. Etienne was lost for 2021 with a Lis Franc injury but in his own words, he picked a good year to take off. The 1.25 pick of 2021 is healthy and wowing in camp. Dual Threat. Has about as much upside as any other RB. Let him shine in a preseason game and this shoots much higher.
24	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	No arguing that the Chiefs first-round pick of 2019 was a disappointment. And this rank is about where he landed as a rookie. He’s suffered ankle, hip, MCL and shoulder injuries over just two years. But he’s slated to do more as a receiver with Tyreek Hill gone. There is still upside here, but one more year of injury and under-performance will be too much. Worth a shot at this spot.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back
25	NE	Damien Harris	This seems like a steal since he scored 15 TDs last year, but OC Josh McDaniels is gone and Rhamondre Stevenson keeps getting hyped. Harris a solid pick but lacks upside.
26	GB	A.J. Dillon	Dillon was the No. 22 RB last year but that was filling in for Aaron Jones twice while going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. This year it falls to No. 25. Not a bad pick, just a bit high.
27	NYJ	Breece Hall	Everyone loves the first RB drafted. The rookie Hall lands on one of least productive offenses of 2021 but the NYJ schedule and O-line are much improved from last year. Prototypical workhorse back that can catch the ball. Plenty of upside if passing game also improves.
28	PHI	Miles Sanders	Sanders has declined in each season and missed four games in each of the last two years. Dogged with knee, hamstring, ankle and hand injuries. Philly wants to pass more with A.J. Brown on the team and it looks more like an RBBC involving Kenneth Gainwell as well.
29	SEA	Rashaad Penny	He was so great in four games at the end of 2021 – versus the worst four defenses. Otherwise, his entire career has been the occasional rushing attempt between injuries. Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker as the second RB this year, so even they don’t think Penny’s late-season burst was a new normal.
30	CLE	Kareem Hunt	He gets banged up, but his moderate fantasy value skyrockets if Nick Chubb gets hurt.
31	DAL	Tony Pollard	Nice spot and productive when given the chance and holds at least this much value even with Ezekiel Elliott healthy. Expectation is that he sees more receptions since DAL receivers are banged up to start the year and Amari Cooper is gone.
32	BUF	Devin Singletary	Improved all three years and turned it up nicely to finish 2021. BUF is a pass-first offense and they added Isaiah Spiller to their mostly committee approach, but powerful offense, good O-line and the No. 1 rushing schedule strength should see Singletary challenge for RB2 fantasy status.
33	JAC	James Robinson	Tore his Achilles at the end of last season but may be ready to play early in the season, if not Week 1. But scary injury to return from and Travis Etienne will drain much work. He needs to prove health in training camp or a very risky pick.
34	MIA	Chase Edmonds	Okay, so he didn’t take over in Arizona and while he is listed as No. 1 in Miami, he probably won’t be more than a piece of a committee. As a late RB3 you could do worse. Marginal upside but should offer roughly this level.
35	DEN	Melvin Gordon	New coaches in Denver may not reprise the same committee backfield as last year. Then again, HC Nathaniel Hackett imports the GB scheme that used Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Should be a safe pick for a back that historically has always been Top-20.
36	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	The second RB drafted in 2021 is a 4.38/40 speedster out of Michigan State that ran for 1,636 yards and 19 TDs last year. The only one above him on the depth chart is the always-injured Rashaad Penny. Yeah. Love this pick and willing to wait a few weeks for big things to happen.
36	ATL	Cordarrelle Patterson	Patterson made the shockingly effective switch to RB last year but then sputtered by the end of the season. He’s 31 years old and probably even less likely to handle more than 150 carries. Worth it as an RB4 to see if he starts adding tons of catches again as he did early in 2021.
37	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	Saw much more use after Week 10 last year and even logged two 100-yard rushing efforts. Expectations are that he will see even more action and is slated to start catching more passes. The NE backfield has long been a source of frustration and dashed hopes, but Stevenson as an RB4 is just too good to pass up. Just his pace last year would have been around No. 24 had he played in all games.
38	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Back up for Dalvin Cook. Three years and never better than this ranking.
39	NYJ	Michael Carter	Jets drafted Breece Hall and now Carter is just the No. 2 for the Jets – when has that ever paid off? Good handcuff for the Hall owner but likely not enough production to merit a fantasy start unless Hall was out.
40	BUF	James Cook	Bills drafted Cook as the third RB taken this year with the plan to make him into a pass-catching back to complement Devin Singletary as the main rusher. Anyone catching passes in the Bills’ offense needs to be owned. Reasonable handcuff for the Singletary owner but should carry stand-alone fantasy value.
41	KC	Ronald Jones II	The info on Jones is conflicting. He’s said to be challenging Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a starter, and also speculated to not make the 53-man cut. Doesn’t help that KC has given first-team reps to undrafted Isaiah Pacheco who will also play special teams unlike Jones. As an RB4, he carries some upside and if he flops, it won’t kill you.
42	LAR	Darrell Henderson	HC Sean McVay referred to his backfield as being both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Not Akers and his backup. The Rams like to pass anyway and Henderson has been around the No. 30 back for the last two years. No game changer, but worth owning.
43	IND	Nyheim Hines	Was deemphasized last year but ranked No. 17 in 2020 when he caught 63 passes and scored seven TDs. HC Frank Reich said he wants the 2020 version of Hines back this year and that makes this a steal.
44	WAS	J.D. McKissic	Like Nyheim Hines, McKissic is not going to save your fantasy team but should see a return to an every-week value play in PPR leagues. He caught 80 passes in 2020 but missed six games last year. Nice value.
45	MIA	Raheem Mostert	In a best-ball league as a final pick maybe. But chances that Mostert is going to offer reliable fantasy points is too hard to buy into.
46	HOU	Dameon Pierce	Fourth-round pick could challenge Marlon Mack as the top back but a committee is expected, the rushing schedule is No. 30 and the O-line remains one of the worst. Upside here around the start of RB5, but not a lot.
47	HOU	Marlon Mack	Starting RB in Houston but virtually no upside and more likely to fall from this level.
48	SEA	Chris Carson	Retired. Will wash out of ADP.
49	NO	Mark Ingram	No. 2 in NO should be gold if Alvin Kamara is suspended, but that is no longer a lock (at least for this year) and Ingram is 32 years old and a nonfactor since 2019.
50	LAC	Isaiah Spiller	Great handcuff for the Austin Ekeler owner but hard to reach since he tends to be taken before the Ekeler owner can get there. Solid RB5 that could be huge if Ekeler missed much time.
51	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	Even with Christian McCaffrey flaming out last year, Hubbard only No. 36. Just a handcuff with marginal value even if McCaffrey misses time.
52	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	Good-sized back (5-11, 220) could beat Damien Williams out to be the No. 2 in Atlanta, and Cordarrelle Patterson faded last year. Bad schedule and bad O-line is a major challenge, but Allgeier could end up as the No. 1 RB in Atlanta this year.
53	DET	Jamaal Williams	D’Andre Swift tends to miss several games per year and Williams ranked No. 43 last season. DET has a great O-line and schedule, so Williams has minor value regardless and becomes a starting consideration when Swift gets hurt.
54	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	Ended as the No. 40 RB as a rookie last year and led the Eagles backfield since Miles Sanders was injured. Has minor stand-alone value and upside in this improving offense.
55	TB	Rachaad White	A popular sleeper-type this summer, White takes over for Ronald Jones as the No. 2 back in TB. Worth owning in that productive offense but likely needs Leonard Fournette to be injured to offer any reliable fantasy starts.
56	ARI	Darrel Williams	Comes over from the Chiefs where he was the No. 21 back last year. Replaces Chase Edmonds as the No. 2 back in Arizona who was No. 33 in 2021. Should offer much more value than this spot and Conner usually misses a couple of games.
57	MIA	Sony Michel	Certainly Michel has value after a surprising year with the Rams, but the Miami backfield is a mess that’s hard to buy into.
58	BAL	Gus Edwards	Torn ACL last September and Ravens O-line not as good. Staying away from players returning from blown knees and playing in a committee backfield.
59	SF	Tyrion Davis-Price	Why not? SF has a tendency to make stars out of surprising players. Elijah Mitchell was the newest star last year, before that, Jeff Wilson, before that, Raheem Mostert, before that, Matt Breida… Davis-Price was the fifth RB drafted this year, so he’s not just a bottom of the roster filler.
60	NYG	Matt Breida	Handcuff for Saquon Barkley. No real value to anyone else and even if Barkley crashes yet again, Giants have a bad schedule, bad O-line and are installing a new offense.

Best of the rest

Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – Firmly No. 3 behind Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, the ex-Alabama bruiser could see short-yardage work and steps in if either starter is injured.

Hassan Haskins (TEN) – The Titans offense is meant to run and Derrick Henry proved he was not immortal last year with the foot injury. Haskins already impressed in camp and will be a hot commodity if Henry misses any time.

Khalil Herbert (CHI) – New offense in Chicago changes backfield roles and Herbert looks likely to receive more work. A needed handcuff for the David Montgomery owner, but may have stand-alone fantasy value anyway.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks

2022 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

While there are many definitions of “sleeper”, what this analysis considers is that a sleeper is someone drafted as a backup that becomes a fantasy start. The first 12 quarterbacks taken are already starters, so the green shaded players are picks that offer the best value in that spot and could be considered earlier. Those in red are being drafted too high for their expected outlook.

Below is ordered in their average draft position from recent drafts of the last few weeks. This won’t be exactly like your draft, but it tends to be generally close enough to rely on.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position becomes more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value Picks

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
1	BUF	Josh Allen	No.1 for last two years, with a better schedule. Why not? But this will cost you a lot. Like a full round earlier or even two than all the others.
2	LAC	Justin Herbert	30+ TDs in both seasons, enters his third year with the same offensive weapons as 2021 when he was No. 3.
3	KC	Patrick Mahomes	Taking Mahomes as the third QB seems like a huge value. Sure, Tyreek Hill left but there are plenty of new receivers and no longer a certainty which one a defense needs to focus on.
4	CIN	Joe Burrow	Almost two years from the knee injury with a stocked set of wideouts. Available later than the Top-3 but this isn’t settling, it is more like stealing. Rock solid.
5	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Was No. 1 in 2019 and BAL wants to revert to that run-happy offense. But no better than No. 10 the last two years, has a much worse passing schedule when he does pass and never replaced Marquise Brown at all. Fingers crossed on his health if he runs even more.
6	ARI	Kyler Murray	Good spot for one of the best QBs since his rookie season. ARZ struggled with injuries last year but is healthy. No DeAndre Hopkins for six games hurts, but adding Marquise Brown softens that blow while helping the offense the entire season.
7	PHI	Jalen Hurts	The No. 10 QB from 2021 upgrades with A.J. Brown and the No.1 passing schedule strength. The table is set for a fantasy football feast.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Finished 2021 with this No. 8 ranking and yet Davante Adams took his 123 catches to Vegas this year. Rodgers is a HOF’er and will compensate for the loss, but his schedule strength drops from No. 3 to only No. 18 this year.
9	LAR	Matthew Stafford	This is probably a steal and reflects his lack of rushing stats, but the move to LA already made Stafford the No. 5 QB last year. Tougher schedule and the Rams have a target on them as the reigning champs.
10	DAL	Dak Prescott	Hasn’t been worse than No. 6 when healthy and his ankle is on the second season since the injury. Loss of Amari Cooper not ideal, and Michael Gallup not yet back to form, but Prescott looks to run more and spread out the passing more.
11	DEN	Russell Wilson	In his glory days in Seattle, Wilson was a near-lock for a Top-5 ranking but moved to Denver. There are weapons already there and a new offense installed centered around him. If Wilson did better than this, would anyone be surprised?
12	TB	Tom Brady	The age-less wonder was the No. 2 QB last year. That meant each league had 11 guys saying “not taking the chance on a 44-year-old QB” and one guy just smiling. No Gronk, Chris Godwin still recovering from his torn ACL, and one year older. But he’s like tossing a coin and flipping heads every time.

Sleepers and Overvalued Players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	LVR	Derek Carr	Carr spent his career bouncing between the No. 12 and No. 18 fantasy QB, and now he has Devante Adams. Doesn’t run much, and the schedule takes a downturn, but worth being the first back-up taken from his upside.
14	SF	Trey Lance	He had just one year as a starter in college (though glorious for sure). 49ers let him simmer on the bench last year. Good O-line, great schedule, inventive offense and a dual threat. Makes a great backup that may end up as your starter. If any QB is positioned to be a surprise fantasy star, it is Lance.
15	MIN	Kirk Cousins	He hasn’t performed this low in years and was No. 9 last season. New offense intends to pass more, run less. He’s likely to end up eventually starting in many fantasy leagues… just like every year…
16	CLE	Deshaun Watson	Ethics and distractions aside – Watson was always Top-5 in HOU on a far worse team. Great O-line and all-new run support mean he doesn’t have to do it all. Misses the first six games, plays Ravens, Bengals and then takes a bye. In most leagues, only four or five more games until fantasy playoffs. He’ll no doubt be rising in ADP but hasn’t played since 2020 and CLE is all new.
17	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	Was only No. 26 last year while missing five games. Upgrade to Tyreek Hill is a difference-maker, but mediocre backfield offers little support. Makes for a solid “average” fantasy backup and carries all-new upside.
18	CHI	Justin Fields	Rookie year ended as the No. 31 QB while playing in just 12 games and produced rock-bottom passing stats. HC Matt Nagy is gone and sputtering offense gets a make-over but lost Allen Robinson with no replacement. Better fantasy backup options at this point.
19	HOU	Davis Mills	The 3.08 pick in 2021 that featured five first-rounders and landed in HOU where the Deshaun Watson dilemma was only starting. Bad season for the Texans again, but Mills tossed four 300-yard games and threw eight TDs over final four weeks. Will need to throw just as much for 2022.
20	IND	Matt Ryan	Colts buy a new aging QB every year and Ryan gets his turn. Super solid at this spot and far better schedule than he had in ATL. Plus – great O-line and run support but will not be asked to throw nearly as many passes and does not rush the ball himself.
21	ATL	Marcus Mariota	Bad O-line, very young receivers and Desmond Ridder standing on the sideline waiting for HC Arthur Smith to say, “That’s enough, send in the rookie.”
22	WAS	Carson Wentz	Wentz was only No. 14 at IND last year, and nothing suggests he’s fantasy starter worthy anymore. Gets a great schedule and decent receivers. But he’s likely just a bye week replacement.
23	JAC	Trevor Lawrence	Lawrence was the No. 22 QB in 2021 as a rookie, playing in a highly dysfunctional offense that lost most players to injury. He was also the 1.01 pick last year as the best college player. Worth granting him a mulligan on last year’s team-wide debacle. He’s another QB that could really surprise this year.
24	DET	Jared Goff	This is the least he should do – he was the No. 24 last year. But the Lions brought in Jameson Williams and DJ Chark. O-line is one of the best. Schedule is much better. Could be a streaming choice.

Best of the Rest

Mac Jones (NE) – It is a surprise to see Jones not make the Top-24 when his rookie season was better than the four quarterbacks that were selected before him. And Jones was the No. 18 fantasy quarterback. He may not be a fantasy starter quite yet, but he’s also likely to be better than the No. 18 he was last year as a rookie.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Losing A.J. Brown meant the fantasy world writing off Tannehill who was No. 13 and No. 9 over the two previous seasons. He’s not likely to improve of course, but dropping out of even backup consideration is too harsh.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Wide Receivers

2022 Sleeper and Value Play Wide Receivers

See also:
Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Wide Receiver
1	LAR	Cooper Kupp	No.1 WR from last year earns this spot. And he was No. 1 by a mile.
2	MIN	Justin Jefferson	Two years in and never worse than No. 7. He gets drafted No. 1 on occasion and not hard to argue.
3	CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	Rookie Phenom. Top-5 when he really only played one big year in college. And that wasn’t even the previous year.
4	LVR	Davante Adams	Pass sponge leaves frigid Green Bay for sunny Las Vegas. Doesn’t sound all that crazy really.
5	BUF	Stefon Diggs	The top receiver with the top passer. Lock for a Top-10 if not Top-5.
6	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	Amari Cooper gone, Michael Gallup still healing and James Washington out for a month or three. Stage set for a major increase.
7	SF	Deebo Samuel	He runs, he catches, he wins fantasy games. No surprise this year.
8	MIA	Tyreek Hill	Trades Patrick Mahomes for Tua Tagovailoa and claims it’s no step down. At this spot, willing to discover the truth. Was No. 6 and No. 2 most recently.
9	TB	Mike Evans	Perfect spot for a WR that is right around No. 10 every year.
10	LAC	Keenan Allen	Like Mike Evans, consistently right around No. 10 as well.
11	PHI	A.J. Brown	Never better than No. 14 and leaves the simpler passing offense of the Titans for the complex scheme in Philly that already has DeVonta Smith to share targets. He may be fine at this spot, but a bit more risk and there are other safer options.
12	CIN	Tee Higgins	This feels high for a wideout that’s been the No. 24 and No. 28 wideouts these last two seasons. But he’s a lock for 1,000 yards and six scores. Ja’Marr Chase attracts the secondary so Higgins could see another increase in production.
13	IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	Posted 88-1082-6 last year playing with Carson Wentz and the No. 29 passing schedule. Gets Matt Ryan and the No. 6 schedule. That’s worth a bump.
14	SEA	D.K. Metcalf	Metcalf plenty talented, but was No. 15 last year with Russell Wilson. Now he steps down. Just a riskier situation and Seattle wants to run more to cover for a decline in passing.
15	PIT	Diontae Johnson	Johnson exceeded expectations with 107-1161-8 while Ben Roethlisberger practiced free throws instead of passing downfield. A change in QB certain to impact and the No. 31 pass schedule is no help. This spot assumes he still gets a high volume of passes that is no longer certain.
16	WAS	Terry McLaurin	McLaurin has the talent for this production and at least Carson Wentz helped Michael Pittman to a career year in 2021. Less upside here, but a safe pick.
17	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	Rookie was the No. 12 receiver but steps back with the addition of Tyreek Hill. Plenty of passes for the two to share so a minor decline isn’t a huge deal. Some upside from Hill clearing out the safeties.
18	CAR	D.J. Moore	He’s been rock solid at this level and topped 1,150 yards in each of the last three years. If Panthers ever get a top-tier QB, Moore would be Top-10 material. Baker Mayfield is no worse than what Moore has played with in Carolina.
19	ARI	DeAndre Hopkins	Hopkins was less productive last year even aside from the hamstring injury and eventual torn MCL. Now he is suspended for the first six games (AKA half of the fantasy regular season). He may return to being lights out in Week 7, but that’s a long time to wait.
20	TB	Chris Godwin	Returns from torn ACL last December. Top-12 when healthy, but that’s a quick turnaround to be back to form by Week 1. Bucs added Julio Jones and Russell Gage, so less need to rush him back.
21	NO	Michael Thomas	I do remember 2019 but it is fading. Was already less effective after his 149 catches and then injured his ankle and hasn’t played for almost two years. Plus Drew Brees is long gone. He’s only 28 and still has years, but an immediate return to form would be a surprise.
22	LAC	Mike Williams	Was the No. 14 last year and has both a great QB and an easier schedule. Had four 100-yard games and nine TDs last year. As a deep WR2? Very nice.
23	HOU	Brandin Cooks	Something Cooks does leads to his team cutting ties – three times. But it isn’t production with six 1,000-yard seasons. And he’s only 28 and in his prime. Played on lowly Texans with a rookie QB last year and had a career-high 90 catches.
24	MIN	Adam Thielen	At 31 years of age, Thielen is starting to age out, but he still scored ten times in 13 games last year and MIN looks to pass more in 2022. The catches get shorter and Justin Jefferson gets the most targets, but Thielen is a consistent contributor.
25	LVR	Hunter Renfrow	Third year was the charm when Renfro caught 103 passes during the Raiders most challenging year ever. He was a standard 55-catch, 650-yard slot guy for two years before they ran out of receivers. Adding Davante Adams changes everything, and Renfro is more likely to head back to his previous production than the one magic year.
26	CLE	Amari Cooper	Cooper steps into a very clear WR1 role with the Browns that ranked No. 31 in nearly all WR categories last year. Deshaun Watson is an obvious upgrade when he does play but this is an offense that is built to run. He was already the No. 27 fantasy WR last year and that was with Dak Prescott.
27	LAR	Allen Robinson	Yes. I welcome Robinson onto all my teams. Sure, he was terrible in Chicago last year, but was good for around 100 catches and 1,200 yards in the two previous seasons. Now he’s with the team that ranked No. 1 in WR last year. He’s impressed the coaches and no longer gets double teams. One of my favorite sleepers this year.
28	DEN	Jerry Jeudy	The former first-rounder hasn’t met expectations but finally gets a Top-Tier QB. There’s plenty of upside here and the first chance we get to see what Jeudy can really do after catching balls from a string of mediocre passers.
29	CHI	Darnell Mooney	Mooney managed 81 catches for 1,055 yards last year, somewhat miraculous considering no other CHI receiver had more than 410 yards. Second year of Justin Fields should be better without HC Matt Nagy around. Solid WR3 pick that could easily deliver WR2 production.
30	ARI	Marquise Brown	BAL committed to the pass last year and Brown ended with 91-1008-6 for career highs. He lands in Arizona where he’ll replace DeAndre Hopkins for six weeks, and then pair with him while catching passes from Kyler Murray. This could be a career move that can get him to that elite level expected as the first WR in the 2019 NFL draft.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Wide Receiver
31	DEN	Courtland Sutton	Like Jerry Jeudy, Sutton gets his first legitimate NFL QB with Russell Wilson. He topped out with 72 catches for 1,112 yards in 2019 and struggled last year after returning from the torn MCL of 2020. His best season was No. 19 so he’s worth a shot with his major upgrade in passer.
32	BUF	Gabriel Davis	Davis produced around 35 catches for 550 yards and six TDs in his two previous seasons, and the needle is pointing up for his third season since Emmanuel Sanders left. It’s a great offense with a great schedule, but it also has a lot of weapons. He was considered a sleeper my some this summer but he’s a safe grab at this level regardless.
33	PHI	DeVonta Smith	His rookie year was a big success with 64-916-5, but he topped 100 yards just twice and the addition of A.J. Brown is certain to cut into his workload. He’s still a very serviceable WR3 that should turn in at least a few big games along the way. But Brown will be the more consistent and productive of the pair.
34	NYJ	Elijah Moore	Moore was only the No. 50 fantasy WR as a rookie last year, and the Jets added Garrett Wilson, C.J. Uzomah, and Breece Hall who will impact the target share. He’ll improve by playing in all games but needs Zach Wilson to take a very big step forward if he’s going to be worthy of a weekly fantasy start.
35	DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Love this pick. The rookie on a talent-starved Lions team ended the year with six straight games of 8+ receptions. He caught 90 passes for 912 yards and five scores to rank No. 22. He’s joined by DJ Chark and Jameson Williams which will have an impact, but the Lions passing schedule got much easier and St. Brown is the only WR with any chemistry with Jared Goff. He could slow down later in the year as the others get more comfortable, but as a tail-end WR3 he is a great value.
37	TEN	Robert Woods	Tore his ACL last November but is expected to be healed for the season and has been talked up by his coaches. He leaves the pass-happy Rams for the run-heavy Titans though, and they drafted Treylon Burks to add to the mix that seeks to replace A.J. Brown. Long as the knee is okay, this is a reasonable spot.
38	BAL	Rashod Bateman	The rookie was limited to only 46-515-1 last year, but the departure of Marquise Brown promotes him into the WR1 spot for the Titans. Bateman is a sleeper to some, and he has a new opportunity, but BAL wants to return to their run-heavy ways and face a worst schedule. This WR4 level is good to see if he merits a fantasy start or just use as a solid bye week replacement.
39	KC	JuJu Smith-Schuster	Signed a one-year deal with KC hoping to recharge his career and cash in 2023. Nice balance of upside and risk leave him right after the fantasy starters at wideout.
40	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	He’s been worth around No. 35 in his two seasons, but has been inconsistent. Adding a new QB that may run more and pass less than Jimmy Garoppollo means fewer targets as the No. 3 or No. 4 read on most plays.
41	SEA	Tyler Lockett	Lockett has been a borderline fantasy WR1 for years, but losing Russell Wilson has him tumbling this far in ADP. It’s probably too far for such a reliable set of hands, but Seattle wants to run more and the QB situation is still not concrete.
42	PIT	Chase Claypool	This WR4 level is a good value for a receiver that was No. 24 as a rookie and then fell back to No. 38 last year when the TDs dried up. He produced around 60 catches for 850 yards as the deep threat on a team that had no QB that could throw downfield. Regardless of which QB starts, Claypool has new upside and should flirt with being a fantasy starter.
43	TB	Russell Gage Jr.	Gage was the rage this summer since Chris Godwin could be slow to return from his torn ACL and Tom Brady only has maybe eight to ten years left to play. But the Bucs added Julio Jones that should impact the target distribution.
44	DAL	Michael Gallup	The Cowboys fully intend on using Gallup after giving him a five-year, $63M contract. But his Week 17 ACL tear could see him remain out going into the season. Too many healthy options for this risk.
45	JAC	Christian Kirk	Left a career year in ARI with 77-982-5 and lands in Jacksonville on a four-year, $72M deal to be the new WR1. The Jags take a mulligan on their disastrous 2021 season, and the best college QB in the 2021 NFL draft has a new primary target. Great passing schedule, so Kirk has a big opportunity to be a fantasy starter at the price of a late WR4.
46	GB	Allen Lazard	Ton of targets to find new homes in GB after Davante Adams left and Lazard in line to be WR1. That’s gotta be worth more than the 46th WR taken. Maybe not a lot more, but Aaron Rodgers has never failed to produce at least one fantasy starter at WR.
47	NYG	Kadarius Toney	The Giants passing game has struggled but starts over with HC Brian Daboll importing some BUF offense. Toney mostly disappointed last year but had ne big game at Dallas. This deeply it worth swinging for the fence that something changed for the G-Men.
48	ATL	Drake London	QB situation may change midstream but Falcons are short on receiving talent outside of Kyle Pitts. This is a good spot for London to see if he develops into a fantasy option.
49	NO	Jarvis Landry	Michael Thomas is likely rusty, Chris Olave has to learn the NFL and Landry is the veteran presence that has been a great fit in camp. He may not offer any big games, but he should be a serviceable option as a flex play with consistent points.
50	TEN	Treylon Burks	Burks was drafted to replace A.J. Brown but struggled earlier this summer. Titans don’t throw much and Robert Woods should be the WR1. This offense doesn’t often produce two viable fantasy WR starters.
51	NO	Chris Olave	The 1.11 pick lands in a good spot but may remain behind Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry all season.
52	ATL	Calvin Ridley	Needed time off, bet on games, got suspended indefinitely for at least this season. And yet here he is in ADP.
53	NE	DeVante Parker	Not a bad depth pick for Parker who could use the change in scenery. Barring a big jump by Mac Jones, Parker won’t offer consistently relevant fantasy points.
54	GB	Christian Watson	Why not jump on the new guy for the Packers with their wide open depth chart? Davante Adams needed a few years to realize his potential, but Watson merits a pick this deep just to see if anything happens.
55	CIN	Tyler Boyd	Granted, Boyd is behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But Boyd was still No. 31 last year as his worst in five years. He’s likely to do better than this, and could again flirt with being a consistent flex play.
56	KC	Skyy Moore	Tyreek Hill left and they drafted Moore which alone draws fantasy interest. But he missed most of the offseason with a hamstring injury, and then hurt his hip. Can’t fault swinging for the fence, but this feels like a waiver wire guy by Week 3.
57	TB	Julio Jones	Name alone gets him drafted. But 33 years old and last good year was 2019. I’d let someone else take him.
58	KC	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Almost to WR6 area and MVS lands on a team that gave him a three-year, $30M contract while JuJu Smith-Schuster only got one year. The speed guy from GB was never better than 690 yards and four scores, but Davante Adams dominated. MVS also has a career 17.7 yards per catch. Buy him as depth, but know he is in a great situation and the Chiefs locked him up for three years.
59	ARI	A.J. Green	He’s 34 years old and won’t be better than the No. 3 receiver. He managed 54 catches for 848 yards last year, but he’s far more likely to decline than improve.
60	KC	Mecole Hardman	Gets a little better each year and reached 59 catches for 693 yards, but Chiefs brought on JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore. He’s another guy that finds the waiver wire by Week 3.

Best of the Rest

Robby Anderson (CAR) – After posting 1,096 yards on 95 catches in first year at Carolina, fell out of sight last year. Baker Mayfield won’t be any worse and likely better. Anderson deserves at least one more chance.

Nico Collins (HOU) – Big guy at 6-4 that looks to take the next step with the Texans. Has impressed in camp and Texans need the help.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – More of a stash and wait for Deshaun Watson. As the WR2 for the Browns, should offer a flex option.

DJ Chark (DET) – One-year deal to rekindle his career and lands with the Lions. No chance of becoming the WR1 but worth rostering to see if the change in scenery helps.

Jalen Tolbert (DAL) – Cowboys spent their third-round pick on the South Alabama product for depth but Michael Gallup still on the mend and James Washington out for two or three months. Tolbert has impressed and DAL has no other options.