Fantasy Football Schedule Swings

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

See Also: Running Backs | Receivers

Best Schedule Swings

Bryce Young (CAR) – This is a welcomed change. Bryce Young suffered the downside of being the first player drafted in 2023 when he went to a terrible offense that already had that top pick. With one of the worst schedules and a set of receivers limited almost entirely to Adam Thielen, he struggled. But Year 2 is already looking up with a new coaching staff and pass-happy scheme with new receivers. Now one of the biggest swings possible in schedule strength, the deck is getting stacked in favor of Young.

Kirk Cousins (ATL) – This could be spectacular. The Falcons suffered through the Arthur Smith/Desmond Ridder era when passing stats were rock-bottom. The offense already holds the top-drafted running back, wide receiver, and tight end from their respective draft classes. A new offense is getting installs that promise to return the scheme to pass-happy days. And now Cousins shows up as a Top-10 quarterback with a huge upgrade to the Falcons’ schedule.

Deshaun Watson (CLE) – Everything is in order for Deshaun Watson to finally deliver on his potential in Cleveland. He’s healthy again, They added Jerry Jeudy to Amari Cooper for starting wideouts and now he swaps a below schedule to the best on in the NFL. That’s plenty to merit a fantasy backup role that just might end up as a starter again.

Jared Goff (DET) – As if Goff needed any more advantages when he passes, that deadly set of receivers return for another big year in the same scheme and now enjoy a Top-5 schedule.

Caleb Williams (CHI) – This should be fascinating. Unlike Bryce Young last year, the rookie Williams starts his NFL career in a stacked offense that is teeming with talent, the offensive line is finally average again, and he’ll start his career out throwing passes to all those talented receivers while facing a Top-3 passing schedule. He has rare advantages for the top player in the draft.

About the same schedule strength

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are the Bengals still saddled with one of the toughest and the Broncos dropping nearly to the bottom.

Worst Schedule Swings

Daniel Jones (NYG) – He’s back this year, amazingly, and already disappointed in every season since he was a rookie. The offense is already challenged enough to get on track each week and now losing Saquon Barkley and facing a below-average schedule won’t make Jones any better. And he has little room left to drop.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – The Fins have a great offense with elite weaponry, so this downturn may not prove a major problem, but it is troubling that they slide down to the worst schedule for quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (TB) – This may be a problem. Mayfield turned in a fine season in 2023 for the Buccaneers and wound up with a nice contract for his efforts. The offense has been limited to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and this change in schedule could ding both.

Josh Allen (BUF) – Okay, so the drop isn’t great and it comes when the Bills lose Stefon Diggs and replace him with a rookie. But Allen will add plenty of rushing yardage and scores. He’s been a Top-2 quarterback for the last three years.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Not to worry. He has a hefty slide in schedule strength but has always been better tan his opponents and gets new weapons with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. He’ll be fine.

2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy. This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

2024 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the more accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Receivers

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2024?

Best schedule swings

Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – After two seasons as the No. 20 fantasy running back, Walker gets a chance to take advantage of the most dramatic swing for the position. His schedule strength rockets up from No. 30 to No. 2 and that should be apparent so long as Charbonnet doesn’t take a hefty chunk away from him.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – The offensive line won’t be an advantage unlike back in Green Bay, but Jones’ first season with the Vikings with a boost from the No. 29 up to the No. 9 schedule. He wasn’t there last year, but he suffered through the worst schedule in 2023 while with the Packers. The schedule should help get him back on track.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – Hall already exploded last year when the Jets kicked off the training wheels and let Hall become the workhorse back. He’ll enjoy a lighter schedule this time around and maybe even a passing offense that can take the pressure of him.

Javonte Williams (DEN) – After a tough 2023 when he was still recovering from his torn ACL, Williams has a nice upgrade to his schedule but he seems to have lost a bit from his injury and the Broncos added Audric Estime. This isn’t as safe of an advantage as it might seem.

Rachaad White (TB) – With the Buccaneers getting a rougher passing schedule, White may already be in line for more receptions from the backfield. But he also gets a solid upgrade in rushing schedule that should keep him on the field and productive. Bucky Irving was drafted to help out, but an easier schedule should keep White looking better and keep Irving from making inroads for a bigger share.

About the same schedule strength

The only notable teams are the Bengals and Colts who repeat what were already tough schedules from 2023.

Worst schedule swings

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Okay, so the best running back from 2023 has the worst swing in schedule strength. Is that enough to sway you from taking him with the 1.01 pick? Probably not. McCaffrey’s problem is more about staying healthy but he’s always a monster when he plays because he just switches to being a receiver if the rushing lanes are clogged. Still, will be interesting to track.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Not Bijan too! The Falcons’ stud running back is hoping to become “all that he can be” now that Arthur Smith is gone and new OC Zac Robinson wants to use him extensively in any way they can get the ball into his hands. But the dip from No. 7 down to the No. 29 is concerning for any back. On the plus, Robinson’s volume should be much higher for 2024, and he was already the No. 8 fantasy running back last year with partial use.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson should be better than their schedules, the same may not be true for the aging Elliott, who has slowed down and is now back in Dallas for the second time for a team with a lesser O-line and now the worst schedule for running backs. Elliott is no lock to remain the RB1 in Dallas all season and has fallen deep in drafts. This won’t make him any more appealing.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule strength has taken a downturn from 2023, but like McCaffrey and Robinson, Etienne is a dual-threat back and the center of their backfield that contains no real competition.

James Cook (BUF) – This is a bit concerning for a lesser talented back than the above players. Cook ended as the No. 11 fantasy back last year as a surprise, but he was facing the No. 2 best fantasy schedule for the position. He drops below average for 2024, and the Bills offense will be different with their best wideouts gone. That may help Cook see more receptions, but he’s probably not “better than his schedule.”

2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
GB	28.3	6.5	-21.8	GB	10	31
PIT	25.7	10.7	-14.9	PIT	7	28
CLE	21.2	18.4	-2.8	CLE	2	20
TB	19.5	12.5	-7.0	TB	5	24
MIN	16.1	7.1	-9.0	MIN	9	27
NO	14.3	8.0	-6.3	NO	8	23
KC	10.0	29.6	19.6	KC	1	6
BAL	9.5	1.8	-7.6	BAL	14	25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
CIN	6.9	-9.2	-16.1	CIN	22	29
BUF	3.3	-17.0	-20.3	BUF	24	30
WAS	1.2	0.0	-1.2	WAS	18	18
LAR	1.2	1.2	0.0	LAR	15	17
DET	0.3	12.0	11.7	DET	6	13
MIA	-4.2	-29.6	-25.5	MIA	30	32
CHI	-4.6	-7.7	-3.1	CHI	21	21
TEN	-10.6	17.4	28.0	TEN	3	2
JAC	-12.0	2.1	14.2	JAC	13	11
CAR	-19.0	-20.7	-1.7	CAR	26	19
NYJ	-19.3	0.0	19.3	NYJ	17	7
DEN	-19.5	2.5	21.9	DEN	11	5
HOU	-19.9	-11.3	8.6	HOU	23	15
SF	-22.2	2.4	24.6	SF	12	4
IND	-22.3	-3.1	19.1	IND	19	8
LAC	-22.6	15.4	38.0	LAC	4	1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
ARI	-23.9	-7.3	16.5	ARI	20	10
PHI	-24.2	-28.6	-4.4	PHI	28	22
SEA	-24.9	-33.0	-8.0	SEA	32	26
ATL	-25.0	-21.1	3.9	ATL	27	16
NE	-26.1	0.4	26.5	NE	16	3
LV	-38.0	-19.8	18.2	LV	25	9
DAL	-41.2	-29.2	11.9	DAL	29	12
NYG	-42.2	-32.8	9.4	NYG	31	14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.

2023 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2022 and 2023 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few minor differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

Best schedule swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
ATL	76.8	33.3	-43.5	ATL	3	32
LV	74.6	37.7	-36.9	LV	1	31
DEN	52.1	27.3	-24.9	DEN	7	29
DAL	48.3	34.8	-13.5	DAL	2	25
CAR	46.7	19.0	-27.7	CAR	11	30
CHI	43.4	29.0	-14.3	CHI	4	26
NYG	40.0	21.2	-18.8	NYG	10	27
JAC	32.5	22.5	-10.1	JAC	9	21

Kyle Pitts / Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – Great schedule, new offense and a team that still needs to come together for HC Arthur Smith’s third season. Pitts returns from a knee injury which is more important for his value, but Drake London looked situated to take a second-year leap.

Davante Adams / Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders – The quarterback situation will be the limitation and the second season of HC Josh McDaniel has taken a step backward in shuffling the roster. Adams has always performed well, and there could be some surprising value here. But the risk is undeniable at least until there’s comfort around the quarterback position.

Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – As bad as the Broncos’ offense seemed last year, the reality is that Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both had career-best seasons. Sure, there was talk about trading a wideout away but it never happened. The schedule improves from No. 29 up to No. 7 and the Broncos appear poised to improve, even while they learn the new offense under HC Sean Payton. The schedule should help.

CeeDee Lamb / Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys finally replaced Amari Cooper after a season without anyone besides Lamb to move the offense. Brandin Cooks changes teams yet again, but the schedule should help him offer fantasy value. There’s a new offense to learn and questions regarding how losing OC Kellen Moore will impact the offense. But feel good about drafting Lamb and Cooks should offer better value than expected which describes the entirety of his on-the-move career.

About the same schedule strength

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
BAL	29.6	8.1	-21.5	BAL	14	28
CIN	26.4	15.2	-11.2	CIN	12	23
NYJ	12.4	12.4	0.0	NYJ	13	17
PIT	10.1	-0.4	-10.5	PIT	18	22
TEN	3.5	-9.3	-12.8	TEN	21	24
MIA	1.2	0.0	-1.2	MIA	17	18
TB	-3.7	24.3	27.9	TB	8	6
DET	-4.5	0.9	5.4	DET	16	14
NE	-8.7	-13.2	-4.5	NE	26	19
IND	-11.5	4.7	16.2	IND	15	10
CLE	-14.3	-23.5	-9.2	CLE	29	20
BUF	-16.4	-10.3	6.1	BUF	23	13
NO	-17.4	27.7	45.1	NO	6	3
MIN	-17.6	-16.0	1.6	MIN	28	16
HOU	-17.7	-7.1	10.6	HOU	20	12
ARI	-23.4	-12.6	10.8	ARI	25	11

The good news from this middle tier is that both the Buccaneers and Saints enjoy another season of living in the NFC South where defenses are optional.

Worst schedule swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
SEA	-31.3	-4.8	26.4	SEA	19	7
SF	-32.1	-12.3	19.8	SF	24	9
GB	-32.9	28.4	61.3	GB	5	1
PHI	-47.1	-13.8	33.4	PHI	27	4
LAR	-48.7	-43.9	4.7	LAR	32	15
KC	-50.6	-24.6	26.0	KC	30	8
LAC	-69.5	-9.9	59.6	LAC	22	2
WAS	-71.4	-40.4	31.0	WAS	31	5

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – Schedule strength is always least predictive for receivers, but the Commanders’ opponents this year will prove more challenging than 2022. This is made worse with a quarterback situation that will likely end up with Sam Howell who only completed 11 passes as a rookie. If Jacoby Brissett wins the starting job (or Howell loses it at any point), it will likely be better for the wideouts. But new OC Eric Bieniemy steps into a very different world than the one he left in Kansas City.

Keenan Allen / Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – There’s also the rookie Quentin Johnson involved this year. While the schedule drops from No. 2 to No. 22, this is a powerful offense with Justin Herbert under center. The schedule won’t help, and the Bolts learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore. But there’s enough talent on both ends of a pass to compensate for the tougher slate of opponents.

Kadarius Toney / Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have worse schedule, but arguably the best quarterback. This is HC Andy Reid’s team, so the loss of OC Eric Bieniemy shouldn’t matter much. And if any team is better than their schedule, it is the World Champion Chiefs.

Cooper Kupp / Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams – Hard to believe that this time last year, the Rams just won a Super Bowl and all was right with their world. Cooper Kupp was still the center of their offense up until he went down with a severe high ankle sprain. The Rams did not add anyone notable as a second wideout, and Jefferson hasn’t proven to be up to the task even as a complementary receiver. Regardless of the schedule, it will continue to be Kupp as the primary read on every pass.

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

Best Schedule Swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
ATL	38.2	20.7	-17.4	ATL	1	28
LV	34.9	16.9	-18.0	LV	2	29
CAR	28.3	5.3	-23.0	CAR	10	32
DEN	15.9	11.8	-4.1	DEN	4	23
NO	13.3	11.7	-1.6	NO	5	21
PIT	11.7	-8.3	-20.1	PIT	25	30
CLE	10.5	-12.0	-22.5	CLE	29	31
BAL	8.9	0.7	-8.2	BAL	15	27

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – No NFL team ran fewer plays or gained fewer yards than the Falcons last year. So the rebuilding year happened at a bad time, with the schedule already working against them. Throw in a rookie quarterback and the results were not shocking. But the upgrade in quarterback schedule is immense as HC Arthur Smith’s second season kicks off with a more season crew of Ridder, Drake London, a healthy Kyle Pitts (hopefully) and the hype monster of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons may not rocket to the top of the standings, but an improvement appears a lock and the schedule is going to work for them this year.

Quarterbacks, Las Vegas Raiders – Maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it will be Brian Hoyer. Maybe it will be fourth-round pick Aiden O’Connell. The only certainty is that it will not be Derek Carr for the first time in ten years. The offense under HC Josh McDaniels ended with moderate passing stats though most of that all went to Davante Adams. And the schedule was one of the worst, so just ending average on the pass was a success, even if Carr’s final year was in a tough situation. There will be opportunity once it is certain which quarterback is the starter.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – Optimism is high for the 1.01 pick of this year. He lands on a rebuilding Carolina team that’s starting over, again, and restocked their offense mostly through free agency. It’s a tall order to expect even the best player in college to step into a highly productive role on a team that’s starting over with coaches, scheme and personnel, but at least the schedule won’t work against him as he starts to learn the ropes.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos were average at best in the first season of Wilson under center. But now HC Sean Payton shows up to do his magic to the sluggish offense of the last few seasons. The jury is still out on Wilson, who hasn’t been a difference-maker in the last two years, and the offense hasn’t had many upgrades while rumors abounded regarding potential trades of their wideouts. But Wilson gets a Top-5 schedule for 2022, and just in time to learn a new offense that worked wonders in New Orleans.

About the same schedule strength

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
TB	6.6	6.9	0.3	TB	8	16
CHI	4.9	13.3	8.4	CHI	3	9
DAL	3.2	-1.4	-4.6	DAL	20	24
KC	2.9	6.5	3.6	KC	9	14
MIA	1.2	-0.4	-1.6	MIA	19	22
NYJ	-0.1	0.0	0.0	NYJ	17	17
CIN	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	CIN	18	18
JAC	-2.7	1.1	3.8	JAC	13	13
TEN	-3.1	-10.1	-7.0	TEN	27	26
NE	-4.0	0.6	4.6	NE	16	12
MIN	-4.0	-5.4	-1.5	MIN	23	20
GB	-6.1	10.5	16.6	GB	6	4
NYG	-6.8	-4.9	1.8	NYG	21	15
LAR	-9.1	-14.0	-4.8	LAR	31	25
BUF	-11.0	1.1	12.1	BUF	12	6
SEA	-14.8	-8.9	5.9	SEA	26	11

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are both the Titans (Ryan Tannehill / Will Levis) and the Rams (Matt Stafford) still face a daunting set of opponents again this year.

Worst Schedule Swings

	Swing Pts	2023 Pts	2022 Pts	SOS	2023 Rank	2022 Rank
HOU	-15.5	-7.2	8.4	HOU	24	10
DET	-16.4	2.5	18.9	DET	11	3
LAC	-19.0	9.5	28.5	LAC	7	1
IND	-19.7	-5.4	14.3	IND	22	5
WAS	-20.9	-11.4	9.5	WAS	28	8
PHI	-21.1	0.8	21.9	PHI	14	2
SF	-22.7	-13.0	9.7	SF	30	7
ARI	-25.2	-26.2	-1.0	ARI	32	19

Kyler Murray (ARI) – There are many red flags surrounding the Cards and Murray. His planned return is uncertain, and his receiving corps was stripped of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he also faces the worst schedule and the largest drop in schedule strength, whenever he can return from his knee injury of 2022.

Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers – Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold? Given the recent injury history of the 49ers’ quarterbacks, maybe it’ll be a bit of all three. The schedule strength suffers a dramatic swing from the No. 7 to the No. 30 ranked set of opponents. The 49ers defense helps prevent the need for a shootout and the rushing offense is in great shape with Christian McCaffrey. The overall talent in receivers is there, but an iffy situation at quarterback coupled with one of the worst schedule strengths makes the position risky for 2023.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Herbert enjoyed what turned out to be the weakest schedule against quarterbacks last year, and while the stats suggest that he’ll have a tougher challenge, it may not be that noticed. The Chargers drafted Quentin Johnson to give them three great options at wideouts, and the drop from No. 1 was only to No. 7 – still better than most of the league.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy fans want to see the Colt’s rookie evolve into the next Lamar Jackson but he already missed last year’s softer No. 5 ranked schedule. Richardson projects as most dangerous, and more valuable in fantasy, from his rushing ability. The schedule is not kind but he’s not expected to immediately produced a high-powered passing attack.

2022 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2021 and 2022. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2022. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t really reliably different for the player.

What is relative is when a player has a significant shift in the quality of defenses that he will face. Davis Mills leaves the No. 32 ranked schedule last year and faces the No. 7 for 2022 – that should be a notable positive for his second year. Conversely, Lamar Jackson went against the No. 8 schedule in 2021 but drops to only No. 26 – that won’t help his passing game that already lost Marquise Brown.

Best schedule swings

Davis Mills (HOU) – Mills’ final four games as a rookie resulted in eight touchdowns, and he totaled four 300-yard games on a bad team that faced the worst schedule in the NFL for 2021. This year, he enjoys the biggest positive swing in the NFL shooting up to the No. 7 best schedule strength. The Texans have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises these past few years, but at least the schedule turns around for them and Mills’ second season contains more promise than may seem at first glance.

Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The quarterback situation isn’t certain this year, and that brings plenty of risk for a franchise that’s moved on from all the best players of recent years. Last year ended poorly for the passing effort but did face one of the worst schedules along with losing Calvin Ridley. The improved schedule will help whichever quarterback starts, but neither were there last year, so there’s no real comparison.

Matt Ryan (IND) -Although Ryan wasn’t with the Colts last year, recall his down year in Atlanta went against one of the worst schedules and now restarts his career versus the No. 6 schedule for quarterbacks. The receivers are iffy outside of Michael Pittman, and the Colts make swapping out aging quarterbacks an annual event, but at least Ryan has an easier slate of games to get his career back on track.

Carson Wentz (WAS) – Following the theme of older quarterbacks leaving town after a down year versus a bad schedule, Wentz moves to Washington where he too trades up from a No. 29 schedule to the No. 2 best for 2021. He’s no better than an average fantasy backup, but at least he gets a more generous schedule if you have to use him for more than a bye week cover.

Jared Goff (DET) – The ex-Rams quarterback likely still feels the sting from getting dumped on the lowly Lions offense while his old team just won the Super Bowl. But he was given a few new weapons for 2022 and starts a second season with the offense. Throw in a schedule that went from No. 27 up to No. 9 and he’s another fantasy backup that should see an increase in production.

Worst schedule swings

Derek Carr (LV) – This is a bothersome development, given that Carr usually flirts with the Top-12 in recent seasons and just upgraded with Davante Adams. But that nightmare 2021 season went against the No. 9 schedule, and now the Raiders are pitted against the No. 30 quarterback schedule. That isn’t to say that Adams cannot continue to be a pass-sponge, but overall, Carr has to contend with much better secondaries for this year.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) – The reality is that Jackson is a premier running quarterback, so his matchups typically fare differently than do other quarterbacks when they face a particular defense. But it is troubling that his stats were down across the board even before ending his season early in Week 14. He’s not only facing a much more daunting schedule than 2021, the Ravens did nothing to replace the departed Marquise Brown’s 91 catches and 1,008 yards.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The better the quarterback, the less that the schedule matters. That could hold true for Rodgers who’s been a fantasy starter for his entire career. He doesn’t face a bad schedule so much as he enjoyed one of the easiest set of opponents last year and 2022 looks to be just average in schedule strength. Maybe not the ideal year to miss Davante Adams, but Rodgers plays bigger than his schedule anyway.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Like a few other elite quarterbacks, Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs only brought in a few moderately-talented replacements. The decline in schedule will have at least a minor impact and may only matter thanks to losing Hill. But Mahomes is yet another quarterback that is bigger than his schedule.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – He’s another elite quarterback who rates as a fantasy starter every year. He was banged up, as was his receivers last year, and ended on a down note. For 2022, Murray loses DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of a year facing the No. 29 schedule for quarterbacks. Adding in Marquise Brown should lessen the impact and Murray is healthy again. But the schedule will have an impact, and likely most at the start of the season when Hopkins is out.

2022 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because there are two to four wideouts and a tight end that are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2021 and 2022 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and the same values are applied to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

Best schedule swings

Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Applying schedule strength to receivers is never straightforward, but at least in Atlanta their receivers are mostly just Pitts and the rookie London. The Falcons trade the worst schedule for receivers for 2021 for an advantageous No. 6. A shaky backfield means the passing game will be needed often, though the quarterback situation is less than optimal to start their rebuilding year.

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – Streaking from the No. 28 up to the No. 1 schedule for receivers is bound to benefit McLaurin and even the rookie Dotson who is projected to be a starter. There’s a new quarterback in Washington, but Carson Wentz should be good enough to help the Commander’s receivers to find some advantage in the lightest cast of opponents.

D.J. Moore / Robby Anderson (CAR) – The Panthers passing game declined last year, especially for Anderson, but should see at least an incremental turnaround, no longer fighting one of the worst schedules for receivers. Sam Darnold is running out of chances to prove himself but should be able to connect better with Moore and Anderson for 2022.

Stefon Diggs / Dawson Knox BUF) – One of the elite passing offenses in the league hardly needs any extra advantages, but the Bills swing over to one of the lightest in the NFL and Josh Allen already has chemistry with Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis. The wideouts already ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 443 targets in 2021. Maybe this year, they’ll catch even more.

Worst schedule swings

Amari Cooper / Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the Bottom-3 for most receiving categories for wideouts last year and upgrading to an aging Amari Cooper may not be the boost they need. Facing the worst schedule for receivers after flopping against the No. 9 last year doesn’t bode well for an increase in receiver production.

Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (LAR) – There’s no mistaking that the Rams face a much tougher schedule this year, but Kupp was already churning out astronomic stats and Robinson is a clear upgrade for the No. 2 wideout. The Rams are likely to be challenged to run well, and Matt Stafford led them to a Super Bowl win last year as the No. 1 offense in wideout catches, yards, and touchdowns. This isn’t a feel-good addition to their outlook, but if any receivers can be better than their schedule, it is the Rams.

Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen (MIN) – Similar to the Rams, the Vikes enjoyed one of the lightest schedules for receivers in 2021, and now face the No. 25 toughest slate of games for the position. And as with the Rams, the Vikings receivers – principally Jefferson – are elite and should be better than their opponents.

Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – This is a concern for the Steelers wideouts and tight ends. Their schedule was just average last year, and falls to only No. 31 while installing a new quarterback(s) for the first time since 2004. And the receivers were already ranked No. 31 last year with just 10.9 yards per catch by wide receivers. The ability to throw downfield will improve regardless of which non-Roethlisberger quarterback starts, but connecting with receivers could be tougher regardless.

2022 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is actually more interesting than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2022?

Both the Bears and Dolphins have a Top-5 schedule for running backs, but they had great schedules last year as well, so there’s no boost for their offenses.

Best schedule swings

Seattle Backfield – This is worth tracking through the offseason because whoever tops the depth chart gets to face an easy schedule, far better than the No. 31 they faced last year. Chris Carson’s neck injury is a major question mark, Rashaad Penny has been an injury waiting to happen aside from a handful of games last year, and they tabbed Kenneth Walker as the second running back drafted back in April. Losing Russell Wilson already has the Seahawks looking to do more with the run and a friendlier schedule should help accommodate that plan – whichever back can take advantage.

Devin Singletary/James Cook (BUF) – The Bills backfield only ranked No. 31 in carries last year, and their schedule (No. 19) was mostly average. They upgraded to the No. 1 running back schedule in total points for 2022 which should encourage more rushing, and the rookie James Cook was the third running back taken in the NFL draft. But so long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the pass-happy scheme, the backfield won’t likely take full advantage of a schedule gift this year.

D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams (DET) – The fantasy community is higher on the oft-dinged Swift and the schedule makes that sentiment even stronger. Rocketing up from the No. 26 spot to the No. 2 will make a difference so long as Swift can stay healthy. The Lions’ offensive talent promises to be at least incrementally better this season and facing a lighter set of opponents will improve them even further.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – The Ravens backfield is another unit that is a committee with a lot more questions than answers. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return (probably) from injury. Mike Davis and the rookie Tyler Badie were added. The Ravens’ backfield struggled with injuries last year and ranked in the Bottom-5 for most running back categories. The schedule lightens up significantly but the roles of individually players remain murky.

Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic/Brian Robinson (WAS) – There’s a definite bump up in ease of schedule for the Commanders’ backfield, but the division of labor appears to be even greater this season. McKissic returns for the third-down role, Gibson was good last year but not as great as hoped, and they added the bull Robinson who could figure in for short-yardage and goal-line work. Gibson could lose at least minor touches, but at least he’ll have an easier schedule for an advantage.

Worst schedule swings

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers backfield ranked slightly above average in most fantasy metrics last year but even that may be hard to replicate in a season where they drop from the No. 2 to the No. 25 schedule for running backs. The backfield already split touches between Jones (223) and Dillon (224) last season and now they’ll face tougher defenses. Jones is less likely to be impacted as the primary receiver in the backfield.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The shift to a non-Roethlisberger offense already casts uncertainty on the offense and Harris already was one of the elite backs as a rookie, so he’ll be challenged to repeat his great 2021. Falling from No. 4 to No. 27 in schedule strength will have an impact, but his role as a rusher and how often he’ll be used as a receiver with Mitchell Trubisky under center remains unknown.

Cam Akers (LAR) – Tearing his Achilles erased his 2021 season other than returning very late and doing very little. Now Akers will be a year removed from the same injury that ended most players’ careers and he has to face a decline from the No. 3 schedule of last year to only No. 24. The Rams’ backfield was only average in rushing for 2021 and in the Bottom-3 in all receiving categories for running backs. Akers has an uphill battle to meet the expectations that he spawned last year before his injury.

Josh Jacobs (LV) – After two seasons of mostly RB1-level production, Jacobs’ outlook isn’t as shiny as it once was. He’s due to be a free agent in 2023 and isn’t expected to be a great fit for the new Patriots-style offense that new head coach Josh McDaniels is installing. The backfield is already a bit murky with Kenyan Drake returning from a broken ankle, ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden signing, and drafting Georgia’s Zamir White who some speculate could replace Jacobs this year. The Raiders faced the No. 20 schedule for running backs in 2021 and now are pitted against the No. 32 slate of opponents for this season. It all casts shadows that may never turn bright.

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.