The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.
That means comparing the schedule strength between 2022 and 2023 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.
The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.
The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.
This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few minor differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.
Best schedule swings
Kyle Pitts / Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – Great schedule, new offense and a team that still needs to come together for HC Arthur Smith’s third season. Pitts returns from a knee injury which is more important for his value, but Drake London looked situated to take a second-year leap.
Davante Adams / Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders – The quarterback situation will be the limitation and the second season of HC Josh McDaniel has taken a step backward in shuffling the roster. Adams has always performed well, and there could be some surprising value here. But the risk is undeniable at least until there’s comfort around the quarterback position.
Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – As bad as the Broncos’ offense seemed last year, the reality is that Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both had career-best seasons. Sure, there was talk about trading a wideout away but it never happened. The schedule improves from No. 29 up to No. 7 and the Broncos appear poised to improve, even while they learn the new offense under HC Sean Payton. The schedule should help.
CeeDee Lamb / Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys finally replaced Amari Cooper after a season without anyone besides Lamb to move the offense. Brandin Cooks changes teams yet again, but the schedule should help him offer fantasy value. There’s a new offense to learn and questions regarding how losing OC Kellen Moore will impact the offense. But feel good about drafting Lamb and Cooks should offer better value than expected which describes the entirety of his on-the-move career.
About the same schedule strength
The good news from this middle tier is that both the Buccaneers and Saints enjoy another season of living in the NFC South where defenses are optional.
Worst schedule swings
Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – Schedule strength is always least predictive for receivers, but the Commanders’ opponents this year will prove more challenging than 2022. This is made worse with a quarterback situation that will likely end up with Sam Howell who only completed 11 passes as a rookie. If Jacoby Brissett wins the starting job (or Howell loses it at any point), it will likely be better for the wideouts. But new OC Eric Bieniemy steps into a very different world than the one he left in Kansas City.
Keenan Allen / Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – There’s also the rookie Quentin Johnson involved this year. While the schedule drops from No. 2 to No. 22, this is a powerful offense with Justin Herbert under center. The schedule won’t help, and the Bolts learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore. But there’s enough talent on both ends of a pass to compensate for the tougher slate of opponents.
Kadarius Toney / Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have worse schedule, but arguably the best quarterback. This is HC Andy Reid’s team, so the loss of OC Eric Bieniemy shouldn’t matter much. And if any team is better than their schedule, it is the World Champion Chiefs.
Cooper Kupp / Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams – Hard to believe that this time last year, the Rams just won a Super Bowl and all was right with their world. Cooper Kupp was still the center of their offense up until he went down with a severe high ankle sprain. The Rams did not add anyone notable as a second wideout, and Jefferson hasn’t proven to be up to the task even as a complementary receiver. Regardless of the schedule, it will continue to be Kupp as the primary read on every pass.