Fantasy football player analysis tips and advice – Page 26

Fantasy football preview: RB Miles Sanders, Eagles

After 163 scoreless touches in 2021, what can we expect from the once-promising Sanders?

The Philadelphia Eagles have been looking to install Miles Sanders their long-term featured running back, but the biggest issue since his rookie season in 2019 has been keeping him on the field.

Sanders set a solid standard in his rookie year when he was in a timeshare with Jordan Howard, leading the team with 179 carries for 818 yards, catching 50 passes for 509 yards and scoring six touchdowns. The team thought enough of Sanders to allow Howard to leave via free agency in 2020, but Sanders hasn’t held up in the two seasons since. He missed four games due to injury in 2020 and missed five games last year, which opened the door to the returning Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to get more reps – and steal touchdowns. Those three backs and quarterback Jalen Hurts combined to score 25 rushing touchdowns, while Sanders ended up with none.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni didn’t mince words at the start of training camp when asked about Sanders taking reps with the second team in practice, saying, “Miles is our guy. There’s no secret here.”

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As he enters the final year of his rookie contract, Sanders has millions of reasons why he wants to put his stamp on the offense despite seeing a decline in rushing attempts (179-164-137), receptions (50-28-26) and scrimmage yards (1,327-1,064-912), respectively, in his first three seasons.

The Eagles struggled out of the gate last season before committing much more to the run in the second half of the year. With Hurts leading the way in rushing (793 yards), the Eagles vaulted themselves to the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the league. However, that coincided with Sanders missing five games and Howard, Scott and Gainwell taking turns in the backfield.

If he can stay healthy, Sanders has the potential to be elite. His 5.1-yard career rushing average ranks third in the league among running backs with 400 or more carries, behind only Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor. His 5.66 yards per touch is fourth among running backs, behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Taylor.

Anyone who has seen Sanders on a regular basis knows that he can make highlight film plays – he had a rush of 23 or more yards in seven of the games he played last season and, in 2020, had touchdown runs of 82 and 74 yards.

There is a concern in Philadelphia that the offense is going to employ a three-back system, because Scott and Gainwell proved themselves worthy of getting more playing time by their performances last year, but Sanders led the team in rushing attempts in 10 of the 12 games he played. The emergence of 2021 rookie DeVonta Smith and the arrival of game-changing wide receiver A.J. Brown gives the Eagles the opportunity to be much more productive in the passing game, which, in turn, could open things up for Sanders in the run game without eight defenders in the box most plays. Even with more passing expected, Sanders’ explosiveness lends to a high per-touch efficiency rating.

Fantasy football takeaway

When it comes to assessing the fantasy value of Sanders, zero touchdowns in 2021 is a cause for concern, which drops him to the lower portion of RB2 status. A risk-reward gamble with the ability to be a RB1, his injury history and the potential of a shared backfield group taps the brakes on any real enthusiasm.

Fantasy football preview: RB A.J. Dillon, Packers

Green Bay’s talented RB tandem has plenty to offer fantasy footballers.

Some folks were stunned when the Green Bay Packers drafted running back A.J. Dillon in the second round of the 2020 draft. The team had more pressing needs, already boasting Pro Bowler Aaron Jones and dependable between-the-tackles slogger Jamaal Williams.

As a rookie, Dillon never gained any traction. In 11 games, he had more than five carries just once and 124 of his 224 rushing yards came in one game. It had the feel of a redshirt season.

A little more than a year later, a lot has changed. Williams moved on to Detroit, and Dillon not only came into his own for the Packers but carved out a significant part of the run game – leading Green Bay in carries (187) rushing yards (803) and rushing touchdowns (five).

Jones gets a lot of the fantasy football attention because of his big-play ability and scoring prowess – Jones and Derrick Henry are the only running backs in the NFL to score double-digit touchdowns each of the last three years. However, the season-long disparity in touches between Jones and Dillon was closer than many envisioned when 2021 began.

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Of the final 12 games both Dillon and Jones played in, Jones had more carries than Dillon in just seven of them. The Packers had only two games in which a running back carried the ball 20 or more times and both of them were Dillon. He’s no longer mired in Jones’ shadow. The two of them are a legitimate tandem, as shown by Dillon being on the field for 43 percent of Green Bay’s offensive snaps.

What makes the Packers an interesting team to watch this season is that Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to have his two main receiving weapons having traded Davante Adams and letting Marquez Valdes-Scantling leave via free agency. He’s left with a fourth-year role player (Allen Lazard), an old man (Randall Cobb), a career underachiever (Sammy Watkins), and a small-college rookie (Christian Watson) as his primary targets. Those first three can all be single-covered, and Watson has a big learning curve in front of him. Rodgers must depend on his running backs to be a bigger part of the offense – both running the ball and catching it.

This doesn’t mean the Packers are suddenly going to turn into the San Francisco 49ers and run the ball 30 or more times a game, but for the first time in a long time, the strength of Green Bay’s offense is leaning much more toward the runners than the receivers and even the quarterback.

Fantasy football takeaway

For fantasy purposes, Jones remains a RB1 because of his scoring ability, aerial chops, and track record. Dillon is viewed as more than merely a handcuff player for Jones. He has the ability to be on the field much more than he has yet to date and could be a legitimate No. 2, but with so many other clear-cut starters available, he likely has to remain an RB3.

Fantasy football preview: WR Hunter Renfrow, Raiders

Will Renfrow capitalize on a career year, or will Davante Adams’ arrival get in the way?

When a player is the No. 1 receiver for a team with more than 100 receptions and 1,000 yards the previous season, the last thing many would think is he may be the odd man out the following year. However, that’s what many are projecting for Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow.

In his third NFL season in 2021, Renfrow nearly equaled his production from his first two years, catching 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. He was consistent throughout the season in terms of receptions – you need to be to catch 100 passes – but came on big late in the season. Renfrow had 12 games with five or more receptions and, over the last seven games, caught 47 passes for 514 yards and five touchdowns.

Everything was looking up for Renfrow to put on a repeat performance this year, but that took a hit when the Raiders swung a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams from Green Bay. Adams had more than 110 catches and more than 1,350 yards in three of the last four years and, in his last four seasons (57 games), scored 47 touchdowns. He has been the most lethal fantasy receiver in the league over that span and brings his talents to Las Vegas to offer Derek Carr the most dangerous receiving option he’s ever had.

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The other perception that has people questioning Renfrow’s 2022 fantasy outlook is the return of playmaking tight end Darren Waller. Waller missed six games last season after catching 107 passes for almost 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. His absence left a void in the Raiders’ passing attack that was largely filled by Renfrow. Without Waller and Henry Ruggs, Renfrow was just about all Carr had left.

The new scenario isn’t unusual for what the Raiders offense had planned as it’s just replacing Ruggs with Adams. Ruggs’ NFL career is likely over as he awaits trial on an alleged drunk driving charge that led to the death of a 23-year-old woman.

Many are of the opinion that Renfrow will be left behind the A&W (Adams & Waller) juggernaut, but just the opposite may be true.

While Adams and Waller are supreme talents at their positions, the job of a slot receiver, like Renfrow, is to find the open seams in a defense – sticking his foot in the ground and getting separation. Both Adams and Waller are going to demand additional defensive attention, meaning Renfrow will likely see single coverage on almost every pattern, which Carr will take full advantage of to move the chains and set up big plays downfield. Even though the volume is sure to decrease, Renfrow’s crafty route skills position him for more efficiency in the red zone.

Fantasy football takeaway

From the fantasy draft perspective, most guys coming off a 100-catch, 1,000-yard, nine-touchdown season would be viewed as a WR1 or high WR2 candidate. However, slot receivers rarely get the credit they deserve. With the targets Adams and Waller are likely to command, Renfrow is most likely a low-end WR3 candidate with a position rank in the mid-30s. If you can get him there, he could be a valued member of any fantasy roster, particularly in PPR.

Fantasy football outlook: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals

We know Hopkins will be suspended six games, but what does that mean for his fantasy value?

Typically when an otherwise highly ranked player falls in fantasy football drafts, it happens for one of two reasons – he’s coming back from injury or starting the year on a suspension. In the case of Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, it’s both.

In his first eight seasons, Hopkins only missed one game due to injury. Last season, he missed time with a hamstring strain and tore an MCL in Week 14 to end his season. Even so, in 10 games, he caught 42 passes for 572 yards and eight touchdowns. Those aren’t big numbers by Hopkins standards, but for just about anyone else, would be very good numbers despite injury.

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Hopkins, it can be argued, has already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. In his last six full seasons, he has caught more than 95 passes five times and has 1,165 or more receiving yards in six of the last seven seasons. Consistently big production has been his career calling card, which makes the fantasy decision on him so painful.

In the offseason, Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the season for violating the NFL’s PED policy. While it gives his surgically repaired MCL additional (and perhaps even unnecessary) time to heal, the bottom line is that he is guaranteed to miss nearly half of the fantasy football regular season – six games under the PED suspension and another when the Cardinals have a bye week in Week 13.

The Cardinals have one of the most potent offenses in the league and added Marquise Brown, who topped 1,000 receiving yards last year for the Baltimore Ravens, so the team should be able to hold up offensively until Hopkins returns. The Cardinals proved what they could do last season, starting 7-0 and building momentum before losing seven of their last 11 games, including four of the final five games without Hopkins. His importance to the success of the team is clear, and he will be coming in with fresh legs following his suspension to join a team two months into the grind of a 17-game season.

Fantasy football takeaway

There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to Hopkins. The first is to rank or value him so low that you will never get him. The second is considering him as a high WR3 and deal with his absence like fantasy owners have to do all the time when a player is injured – make do with what you have and ride out the storm early while your entire roster is healthy and bye’s largely aren’t a factor.

The final decision on where (or if) to invest in Hopkins is predicated in making an investment in the early middle rounds to add depth to your receiver corps. Hopkins has WR1 value when healthy and on the field, so when you get to the WR3 tier, the longer he remains, the bigger value he brings.

Don’t draft Hopkins to be a bookend wide receiver, but if you have two locked and loaded don’t be afraid to roll the dice on a redemption story that could stack your lineup in the second half of the season, especially in PPR formats.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers

No longer disgruntled, what can be expected from Samuel in 2022?

The primary storyline regarding the fantasy football value of San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was whether he would potentially hold out for a new contract or a trade – a $73 million extension over three years signed last weekend solved that problem.

With that out of the way, the question is whether Samuel will keep the same role he had in the second half of last season as both a receiver and a rusher or if the second half of 2021 was an injury-forced double duty.

Most people likely know the 2021 regular-season numbers that Samuel put up as a receiver – 77 catches for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns – and as a rusher – 59 carries for 365 yards and eight touchdowns. What they may not realize or remember is that his rushing numbers came in half a season. In the first eight games, Samuel ran the ball just six times for 22 yards and one touchdown. In his final eight games, he had 53 carries for 343 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up with 27 carries for 137 yards and a touchdown in three postseason games.

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It was clear that the play calling philosophy changed at midseason due to injuries and once Samuel became a major component in the run offense, the 49ers became a completely different offense capable of hurting a defense in more ways.

In a league built on replication and thievery of ideas that work, many offenses are now looking for their own “Deebo type.” Samuel came out of nowhere last season to become a lethal dual threat. It may not seem like a lot of rushes, but it was how Kyle Shanahan and his staff kept increasing his workload in the running game that stands out – Samuel had five or more rushing attempts in each of his last eight regular-season games and averaged nine carries a game in the playoffs.

An incentive in the three-year extension addresses his dual role. If Samuel rushes for 380 or more yards in a season under the extension, he receives $650,000. If he scores three or more rushing touchdowns in a year, he gets $150,000.

There are legitimate concerns about the beating Samuel will take coming out of the backfield with an entire defense coming after him as opposed to taking on one or two defenders as an outside receiver. There is a reason why running backs have the shortest shelf life of any position in football – they take a pounding and their bodies give out. Samuel has yet to play a full NFL season without missing time due to injury, which has to be considered given his hybrid role and increased injury potential.

Fantasy football outlook

Samuel proved last season he could withstand the beating a runner takes on a weekly basis, and his usage out of the backfield only increased as his success grew. The concern is whether or not the 49ers will overuse him and expose Samuel to too many big hits. Other possible issues of note include how much more efficient he may need to be with Trey Lance stealing opportunities near the end zone, and also Lance’s inexperience potentially causing the entire passing game to take a step back.

For 2022, those factors shouldn’t deter anyone from selecting him. Samuel figures to remain a WR1 who can supply fantasy points in a variety of ways, but we likely saw a career year out of him in 2021.

Fantasy football preview: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions

Year 3 will be crucial for the versatile Lion. Here’s what to expect.

There are some fantasy football owners who look to avoid players from teams expected to be really bad. Historically, when struggling franchises are discussed, it doesn’t take long for the Detroit Lions to be mentioned. The organization has been mired near the bottom of the league for the last four years – posting a dismal 17-48 record in that span – but one player who brings reason for excitement is dual-threat running back D’Andre Swift.

He has missed chunks of time in his first two seasons – three games in 2020 and four games in 2021 – but the numbers he has put up demand fantasy attention, because he has been a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara in his double role in Detroit’s offense. It’s not just his rushing that makes him valuable. It’s his ability to be a three-down back.

In 13 games as a rookie, Swift rushed 114 times for 521 yards, caught 46 passes for 357 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. In 13 games last season, he rushed 151 times for 617 yards, caught 62 passes for 452 yards and scored seven touchdowns. When he went down early in Week 12 – missing almost five full games – he was leading NFL running backs in receptions, which pile up points in PPR formats.

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Injuries have prevented him from being a legitimate RB1, but there are reasons to believe the risk is worth the reward for making a run to get Swift on your fantasy roster. After a brutal start to the season, Jared Goff improved down the stretch – throwing 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions in his final five games. Swift also saw his numbers limited because Detroit’s defense was so awful (29th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed) that the Lions offense had to abandon the run in the second half too often.

However, the clear strength of the team is one of the most dominant offensive lines in the game. The team has three first-round picks up front – left tackle Taylor Decker, right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow. Left guard Jonah Jackson made the Pro Bowl last season, and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai has been impressive since coming to Detroit in free agency, moving from tackle to guard. This front five can dominate the trenches and consistently open holes for Swift – the team’s 4.4-yard rushing average last year was its highest since 1998, when Barry Sanders was tearing up the league.

Fantasy football outlook

Swift doesn’t have to look over his shoulder for threats to playing time. Jamaal Williams has been a career backup who is dependable and workmanlike, and Craig Reynolds shined when Swift went down last season but isn’t seen as a challenge to Swift’s spot. There may be a few matchups in which Williams shoulders more of the load than Swift on the ground, but the third-year pro is far more explosive than the former Green Bay Packer.

Most rankings have Swift coming off the board not only as an RB1 but as a top six or seven back. That may be a little aggressive, but all signs point to head coach Dan Campbell allowing Swift to be the face of the offense and letting the offensive line overpower defenders.

Swift is a legitimate RB1 candidate after a 15th-place PPR finish a year ago, but until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season and be a weekly fantasy stud, there will be enough fantasy owners who will devalue him. If he can stay on the field, 1,500 total yards, 80 receptions and double-digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question. The risk here is well worth the reward.

Fantasy football reaction: Deshaun Watson suspended 6 games

Watson’s ban clears up his fantasy football worth.

Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots … Judge Sue Robinson has made her ruling, and those are the teams Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will not face in 2022 after a six-game suspension was handed down.

The NFL could file an appeal over the next three days, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. If not, this is quite possibly the best-case scenario for fantasy football purposes.

Watson’s remaining schedule includes a return to the field at the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 and return home to face the Cincinnati Bengals prior to a Week 9 bye. The second half of his schedule is slightly easier than the six games he’ll miss, but that’s not to say it’s a walk in the park with matchups against Miami, Buffalo and Tampa from Weeks 10-12, respectively, including the first two on the road. He then has trips to Houston and Cincy, followed by consecutive home stands against Baltimore and New Orleans, ending with a pair of road games vs. Washington and Pittsburgh.

Fantasy football takeaway

Between a suspect receiving corps, an unproven tight end, and a difficult slate of matchups, Watson shouldn’t be drafted as more than a fringe starter. The talent level will keep him afloat with moderate matchups, but he’s not a slam dunk against the likes of Miami, Buffalo, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Secure a strong QB1 who can get you through the first six weeks and view Watson as a component of a strong roster build rather than the centerpiece. After all, you’re probably not going to make the postseason with a poor start during his absence.

Fantasy football preview: RB Cam Akers, Rams

After a lost year, how much stock should gamers put in to an Akers ascension?

There are players that those who fashion themselves fantasy football experts fawn over in an attempt to be ahead of the curve and proclaim the anointing of the “next big thing”. Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers has been the bane of those “smartest guy in the room” types. A second-round pick in 2020, Akers was projected to checker-jump Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in short order. It didn’t happen.

Although Akers led the Rams in rushing attempts (145) as a rookie, it was a three-man show – Henderson had 138 carries and Brown had 101. What Sean McVay has always envisioned in his offense is one back to carry the workload with backups riding the pine. He wanted that player to be Akers, but it didn’t happen after going down early in Week 2 and missing the next three games. As is the journey of a rookie in the NFL, guys who have proved themselves get precedence if a newcomer can’t go, and veterans don’t give up their spot without a fight.

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After three months in part-time purgatory, at the end of the season, the Rams dedicated themselves to letting Akers be the main man. In the last four games he played in the regular season, he had 86 carries and built fantasy steam again. In L.A.’s two playoff games, he had 46 carries – the other Rams running backs combined had nine.

Heading into 2021 Akers was again being proclaimed as a RB1 messiah by the touts, capable of 1,500 yards and a dozen touchdowns.

That second endorsement crashed and burned when Akers suffered a torn Achilles shortly before training camp. It’s an injury typically has a timetable for return of one year for those who make it back. Akers came back to play briefly in Week 18 and had 67 carries in the Rams’ four-game Super Bowl run. Sony Michel was next with just 26 carries, and he’s no longer on the roster.

Despite spotty regular season production, when the Rams season has been on the line, Akers has been the only option used.

So here we go again. Third time’s the charm, right? Ideally, Akers will be the running back McVay envisioned two years ago and pile up carries with the league leaders. Henderson remains, which gives the Rams the security of having a consistent (albeit not spectacular) Plan B in place in the event Akers struggles, but the clear intention is that Akers will shoulder the running load when healthy, even though he isn’t much of a receiver.

Fantasy football outlook

There is where the rub lies. In two seasons (33 games), Akers has only played 14 of them and hasn’t moved the needle in the fantasy football realm. Many of those who took Akers in 2020 didn’t want him in 2021. Those who were burned last year don’t want him now. Yet, he has a high ranking without proving himself worthy of the distinction.

Due to system designs, opportunity arguably matters more at running back than any other position. The potential to be a go-to guy – the Rams will never have an RB-by-committee again if they can avoid it – makes Akers a mid-RB2 candidate. Eventually, the Akers takers will be the smartest owners in the room.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins

What does Tyreek Hill’s arrival do for Waddle’s fantasy prospects?

There are some players who actually become better fantasy football producers when they are joined by a guy with greater talent. Cris Carter was an established star in Minnesota before Randy Moss arrived and had his most productive seasons playing second fiddle. The Miami Dolphins may have a similar situation with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is coming off a record-setting rookie season but went from No. 1 to No. 2 on the Dolphins’ wide receiver depth chart.

The Dolphins will operate under a new regime with first-time head coach Mike McDaniel, who spent just one season as an offensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers. McDaniel is viewed as an innovator in how he reshaped San Francisco’s offense by making Deebo Samuel a wide receiver-running back hybrid.

Miami made a huge splash in the offseason, making a blockbuster, future-impacting trade with Kansas City to acquire explosive Tyreek Hill. Waddle is fast, but Hill’s field speed is unmatched. In most situations, the arrival of somebody like Hill would be reason for sulking if you were the previous go-to guy. But in this situation, just the opposite is true.

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Waddle put his name in the NFL record books by catching 104 passes (breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie record of 102) for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. He did so with a pedestrian quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) and no other viable wide receiver options – DeVante Parker was second among wideouts with 40 receptions for 515 yards and two TDs. He was the entire show as Tua leaned on him heavily. Now, you have the trifecta of Hill, Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki – as formidable a receiving trio as just about any team can boast.

Hill is the one with the spotlight on him. With that comes a shift in how defenses have to approach Miami’s offense. Defenses routinely rolled safeties over the top on Waddle, which is why, despite a record-setting season for receptions, he averaged less than 10 yards per reception and had just one 100-yard game. When Tagovailoa had to get rid of the ball, Waddle was his safety blanket. The arrival of Hill doesn’t change Waddle’s role. It just changes who is covering him.

Hill is a lethal deep threat and playing single press coverage is done at the peril of a defense. Hill commands safety help and, more times than not, coverage from an opponent’s top cornerback. That’s what Waddle was facing last year. He will see a lot more single coverage and going up against a team’s No. 2 corner in 2022.

Tagovailoa has a shorthand familiarity with Waddle and Gesicki. Hill is a home run hitter who brings a different dynamic and may open more big-play chances for his supporting players, but those plays take time to develop.

Fantasy football outlook

Waddle’s draft stock has taken a hit because Hill is a clear cut WR1. Even with a middle-of-the-road quarterback, Waddle should be a reception machine, giving him lower-end WR2 status in PPR formats. If you can get him as a WR3, that’s a gift. While Waddle may not catch 100 passes again, his receptions should be more impactful and game-breaking.

Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not only do they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, but they do so with greater consistency. The position is always gives up most of the first round in any fantasy draft. Likely the second as well.

Below are the running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Running Backs	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Jonathan Taylor	1	6	0	0	0
Austin Ekeler	2	25	4	27	43
Najee Harris	3	0	0	0	0
Joe Mixon	4	43	13	9	32
James Conner	5	26	34	6	102
Leonard Fournette	6	34	7	38	8
Ezekiel Elliott	7	9	3	5	9
Antonio Gibson	8	13	0	0	0
Alvin Kamara	9	1	9	4	4
Aaron Jones	10	5	2	23	51
Dalvin Cook	16	2	6	31	65
Derrick Henry	23	3	5	13	26
David Montgomery	19	4	23	0	0
James Robinson	24	7	0	0	0
Josh Jacobs	12	8	20	0	0
Nick Chubb	13	11	8	15	0
Christian McCaffrey	39	53	1	3	16
Saquon Barkley	30	119	10	2	0
Todd Gurley II	0	28	14	1	1
Melvin Gordon III	18	12	21	7	5
Kareem Hunt	50	10	48	8	3
David Johnson	60	20	36	10	119
Le’Veon Bell	90	63	16	0	2
Mark Ingram	49	75	11	30	6
LeSean McCoy	0	96	40	40	7
Jordan Howard	68	92	43	18	10
Repeated	4	5	4	5

Hats off to Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara.

They are the only backs with a shred of repeatability beyond two seasons. No other running backs had more than two years as a Top-10 in a row. Injury certainly comes into play for the position, but that’s good to know as running backs become riskier. All other positions incur fewer injuries, so drafting running backs with your first four picks may feel good, but you are skipping over other positions that are less likely to miss games.

At best, only half return to the Top-10 the next season. Notable too is that last year’s Top-6 contained only one player from the previous Top-10 of 2020. The other five ranked no better than No. 25 (Austin Ekeler) the previous year. Said another way, four of the Top-6 were not even RB2-worthy in 2020 and Najee Harris was a rookie. That’s monumental shifting from year to year.

In fairness, only Kareem Hunt went from Top-10 to worse than No. 24, so that is consistency as falling to no worse than a RB2.

For those in dynasty leagues, notice how quickly great seasons turn into mediocrity. Seven of the Top-10 of 2017 have fallen off the map.

All fantasy leagues use at least two running backs and most allow three. So taking a Top-10 running back from the previous year may not provide a difference-maker, but it also won’t usually hurt your team much. But don’t get too excited about spending big on rookie rushers in your dynasty league.