fantasy football reliability – Syndication Server

Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not only do they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, but they do so with greater consistency. The position is always gives up most of the first round in any fantasy draft. Likely the second as well.

Below are the running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Running Backs	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Jonathan Taylor	1	6	0	0	0
Austin Ekeler	2	25	4	27	43
Najee Harris	3	0	0	0	0
Joe Mixon	4	43	13	9	32
James Conner	5	26	34	6	102
Leonard Fournette	6	34	7	38	8
Ezekiel Elliott	7	9	3	5	9
Antonio Gibson	8	13	0	0	0
Alvin Kamara	9	1	9	4	4
Aaron Jones	10	5	2	23	51
Dalvin Cook	16	2	6	31	65
Derrick Henry	23	3	5	13	26
David Montgomery	19	4	23	0	0
James Robinson	24	7	0	0	0
Josh Jacobs	12	8	20	0	0
Nick Chubb	13	11	8	15	0
Christian McCaffrey	39	53	1	3	16
Saquon Barkley	30	119	10	2	0
Todd Gurley II	0	28	14	1	1
Melvin Gordon III	18	12	21	7	5
Kareem Hunt	50	10	48	8	3
David Johnson	60	20	36	10	119
Le’Veon Bell	90	63	16	0	2
Mark Ingram	49	75	11	30	6
LeSean McCoy	0	96	40	40	7
Jordan Howard	68	92	43	18	10
Repeated	4	5	4	5

Hats off to Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara.

They are the only backs with a shred of repeatability beyond two seasons. No other running backs had more than two years as a Top-10 in a row. Injury certainly comes into play for the position, but that’s good to know as running backs become riskier. All other positions incur fewer injuries, so drafting running backs with your first four picks may feel good, but you are skipping over other positions that are less likely to miss games.

At best, only half return to the Top-10 the next season. Notable too is that last year’s Top-6 contained only one player from the previous Top-10 of 2020. The other five ranked no better than No. 25 (Austin Ekeler) the previous year. Said another way, four of the Top-6 were not even RB2-worthy in 2020 and Najee Harris was a rookie. That’s monumental shifting from year to year.

In fairness, only Kareem Hunt went from Top-10 to worse than No. 24, so that is consistency as falling to no worse than a RB2.

For those in dynasty leagues, notice how quickly great seasons turn into mediocrity. Seven of the Top-10 of 2017 have fallen off the map.

All fantasy leagues use at least two running backs and most allow three. So taking a Top-10 running back from the previous year may not provide a difference-maker, but it also won’t usually hurt your team much. But don’t get too excited about spending big on rookie rushers in your dynasty league.

Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most every play. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. But wide receivers are attracting more attention than ever both in the fantasy world and the actual NFL that coughs up huge sums for elite receivers. Sometimes huge sums for less than elite receivers lately.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Wide Receivers	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Cooper Kupp	1	26	4	43	27
Davante Adams	2	1	24	5	13
Deebo Samuel	3	95	31	0	0
Justin Jefferson	4	7	0	0	0
Ja’Marr Chase	5	0	0	0	0
Tyreek Hill	6	2	32	1	4
Stefon Diggs	7	3	20	15	16
Diontae Johnson	8	21	39	0	0
Mike Evans	9	12	16	6	21
Hunter Renfrow	10	57	53	0	0
DeAndre Hopkins	45	4	5	2	1
Calvin Ridley	102	5	27	17	0
DK Metcalf	15	6	30	0	0
Tyler Lockett	16	8	13	11	55
Allen Robinson II	83	9	7	40	189
Keenan Allen	11	10	6	13	3
Michael Thomas	0	93	1	7	8
Julio Jones	92	52	2	4	6
Chris Godwin	13	31	3	23	68
Julian Edelman	0	113	8	22	0
Kenny Golladay	79	103	9	19	62
Amari Cooper	27	15	10	146	30
Antonio Brown	59	64	156	3	2
Adam Thielen	28	11	63	8	10
JuJu Smith-Schuster	133	16	61	9	17
Robert Woods	52	13	14	10	32
Marvin Jones Jr.	33	18	28	55	5
A.J. Green	41	67	0	37	7
Brandin Cooks	20	17	57	12	9
Repeated	4	3	3	6

It’s surprising enough that only Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs repeated their Top-10 performance of 2020 the next year. Consider that the Top-10 of 2019 had only Cooper Kupp as a repeat in the Top-10 of 2021. And he fell to No. 26 in 2020 between those seasons.

DeAndre Hopkins was the only wideout on a four-year streak of Top-10’s before being injured in 2021. It’s not unusual for any receiver to eventually have a down year thanks to injury and Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, and Hopkins incurred just that. Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones fell off the map in 2020.

Of the 29 players that recorded at least one Top-10 season, 16 of them (55%) have just the one (at least so far). Receivers tend to take longer to develop than most positions and for many years, the rule of thumb was that breakouts would typically happen in Year 3. Not so much anymore. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase both reached the Top-10 as rookies.

Half of the Top-10 of 2021 were not in the league in 2018. College produces more and better receivers and that’s carried over to the NFL. The previous Top-10 has tended to remain at least Top-20 the following year, but it is easy to see just how those elite performances last more than two years in a row.

Top-10 Repeatability: Quarterbacks

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 QBs change from year to year.

There is a flood of players to track every summer, so it is easy to get stuck in the weeds of the information overload. There are hyped players that have BREAKING NEWS about them being in the best shape of his career. Guys coming off a bad year, others from an oddly good season. And all the while there are new players on new teams with new coaches. It’s really head-spinning to all keep up with and sort out.

Sometimes, it’s nice to take a big step back and look at the overall picture, from year to year. I’ve produced fantasy football content for 25 years and I can tell you, pretty much the same thing happens every year, just not to the same players.

Below are the rankings of all quarterbacks that lodged a Top-10 performance in the last five years. Quarterback is typically the most stable position, and even more so for the elite players. And yet, look at this:

Quarterbacks	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Josh Allen	1	1	9	22	0
Tom Brady	2	7	14	11	3
Justin Herbert	3	8	0	0	0
Patrick Mahomes	4	6	10	1	53
Matthew Stafford	5	15	29	20	5
Dak Prescott	6	33	3	12	10
Joe Burrow	7	25	0	0	0
Aaron Rodgers	8	3	12	7	31
Kirk Cousins	9	11	19	9	4
Jalen Hurts	10	36	0	0	0
Kyler Murray	11	2	7	0	0
Deshaun Watson	0	4	5	5	27
Russell Wilson	20	5	4	10	1
Ryan Tannehill	13	9	23	30	0
Lamar Jackson	15	10	1	29	0
Jameis Winston	32	69	2	21	18
Matt Ryan	17	12	6	3	14
Carson Wentz	14	22	8	23	9
Ben Roethlisberger	21	14	54	2	8
Andrew Luck	0	0	0	4	0
Jared Goff	24	16	11	6	12
Drew Brees	0	21	25	8	11
Cam Newton	37	20	49	14	2
Alex Smith	0	37	0	32	6
Philip Rivers	0	19	13	13	7
Repeated	5	6	4	3

2020 was a banner year, with six of the Top-10 from 2019 returning as difference makers. But only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were Top-10 for each of the last three years. DeShaun Watson likely would have been another with four straight but even Russell Wilson showed that a good thing doesn’t last forever.

Notable is that most fantasy leagues only start one quarterback, so the Top-5 are the difference makers. Only Josh Allen produced a Top-5 finish (and No. 1, no less) for the last two seasons. There is a reason why he’s being taken as the first quarterback in your league. He’s been a huge fantasy advantage for two years with a similar outlook for 2022.

The Big-3 for this season remains Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. They have the highest ceilings and the least risk. Tom Brady comes off a monster year as well, but everyone keeps waiting for his age to rob him of health and ability. And waiting. And waiting…