Tag: who do i start fantasy football

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 18

A season of ups and downs has made this Cowboy a wild ride in fantasy.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 18

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 8-10-0
All-time record: 27-41-3 (40.1%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64 48 95 35 77
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D F A F- C+

Week 18 final update: Pollard finished just barely in the winning column, bringing my season-long prediction result to 8-10. Meh. I was close to breaking even but had several disastrous flops, too. Lessons learned for next season!

Last week, Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel was the choice, and I stand by my initial decision to promote him. However, in hindsight, it’s easy to say I should have pivoted to a different player once the news broke that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t be on the field. I stuck with Samuel mainly because he had been successful in recent weeks with Sam Howell. My only regret is not choosing the other player I had strongly debated before settling on Samuel … Juwan Johnson. Oof.

Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard at Washington Commanders

So, while name-brand players don’t normally find their way into this space, Pollard’s season has been a disappointment in relation to his fantasy draft expectations. He has been streaky, but even when Pollard has stepped up his game, the results haven’t been a display of week-winning dominance.

Pollard hasn’t scored in four straight contests and posted more than 7.7 points in only one of those games. On the year, this Memphis product has averaged nearly three fewer fantasy points per game than last year despite seeing 3.5 more weekly touches, which suggests maybe less is more for his big-play profile. Through the first six games, Pollard mostly lived up to borderline RB1 status but was a better No. 2. Since, he has failed to reach double figures 60% of the time in PPR scoring. His early-season role as a receiver was much more stable than in the second half of 2023.

To his credit, Pollard has not gone more than three consecutive outings without a breaking into double digits, and he has four 16-plus-pointers in a row (Weeks 11-14) when he has been at his best this season. He had a fine game in Week 12 vs. the Commanders, generating 22.3 points, which was his best fantasy day of the year.

Since that game, Washington has ceded the most rushing yards, fantasy points, and total yards per game, and no defense has permitted rushing TDs at a higher frequency in that time. Throughout 2023, versatile backs have thumped the Commanders, and 18 total scores have come in the 16 games played. Only three defenses have allowed more receptions and aerial touchdowns. The matchup rating is 22.3% better than average on the year and an absurd 65.6% softer over the duration of the season.

Pollard will be the 18th back to get into double figures vs. this feeble unit.

My projection: 14 carries, 68 rushing yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 36 yards (21.4 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 17

There’s sneaky value to be found in this versatile wideout.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 17

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 7-9-0
All-time record: 26-40-3 (39.9%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64% 48% 95%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D F A

As they say in golf, there are no pictures on the scorecard. The Week 16 selection of Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens was a solid win for this article’s purposes, but it didn’t play out as foreseen. Mullens threw for 123 more yards than projected, which helped buoy his value after coming one TD pass short and tossing three more picks than forecasted. His strong fantasy day was good enough for QB9 overall in the fantasy divisional round, presuming your league doesn’t overly penalize for gifting the ball to the opposing team.

This week, we head to the East Coast and put faith in one of the game’s most erratic wide receivers going against a name-brand defense that alone might deter otherwise intrigued gamers.

Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel vs. San Francisco 49ers

The inspiration behind playing Samuel really isn’t based much on what he has done but more so the extenuating circumstances around him. Washington moves on to veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett as the starter after he made relief appearances for a struggling Sam Howell each of the last two games. (12/29 update: Brissett suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable, but Samuel’s recommendation still stands with either quarterback. It’s slightly safer with Brissett, however.) Typically more of a game manager, Brissett is still capable of spinning it but offers more appeal for his ability to diagnose defenses and get through his progressions. Samuel is a primary checkdown read on many plays, and he also will get his number dialed up for manufactured touches.

Samuel has posted three double-digit PPR showings in the last four games, although Week 16’s was a flop with just three points to his credit vs. the toughest fantasy defense of his position. But it wasn’t for a lack of trying as he was targeted six times and rushed the ball on four plays. The prior week, vs. the Los Angeles Rams, this former Carolina Panther went for a 5-41-2 line through the air, and the second touchdown came from Brissett’s hand.

Prior to that recent four-game stretch, Samuel was utterly useless in fantasy, topping out at 6.5 points in PPR scoring over the previous month of play. Earlier in the year, his streakiness was on full display with Samuel going for 11 or more points in four of the first six outings.

So we’ve established most of the risk here comes from Samuel himself, but there’s also the factor of his opponent. The 49ers instill fear in many fantasy owners who blindly take name value into consideration.

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Make no mistake, this isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to the San Francisco’s defense getting thumped last week by Baltimore, but some of this recommendation is actually nod to how the Niners should respond on offense rather than defense. You can be sure the 49ers will be looking to run up the score a week after Brock Purdy tossed four interceptions. That is a recipe to force Washington to hoist the rock all day long, which will benefit Samuel, especially if San Francisco blankets Terry McLaurin.

In the last five weeks, the position has averaged the 14th-most catches per game, resulting in four touchdowns at the 20th-highest rate. The 128.4 yards allowed, on average, checks in as the ninth fewest. On the year, the position has fared much better. WRs have posted 13 receiving scores in 15 games, and 19 players have tallied at least 10 PPR points.

It’s unlikely the injury-ravaged Washington backfield will do much on the ground, and we could see Samuel be called upon to act as a short-area extension of the running game to help eliminate a lot of third-and-long scenarios. Plus, there’s always the potential bonus if Washington utilizes Samuel as an occasional rusher.

What is the expected baseline here to consider starting Samuel a success? Something in the neighborhood of WR3 returns should make the juice worth the squeeze, but there’s upside for more if Washington has to pass north of 40 times.

My projection: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 rush, 4 yards (17.7 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 16

Can this journeyman string together two strong fantasy showings?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-9-0
All-time record: 25-40-3 (39.0%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64% 48%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D F

While the 19.9-point projection last week for Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift was a flop, some of the actual numbers I forecasted weren’t out of line. He out-touched my expectation by a handful of carries, rushing for eight more yards than projected. The Eagles sent three passes his way, just one shy of my stat line for Swift, but he did nothing with his chances through the air (two catches, one yard).

Not finding the end zone is really what killed this recommendation. He would have finished within the range to be a “win” with a single score … unfortunately, Jalen Hurts stole a pair of rushing touchdowns. It’s frustrating, but that was the true risk in playing Swift.

This week, our attention turns to a journeyman quarterback who has a little bit of gunslinger in his DNA.

Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens vs. Detroit Lions

In his first full start with the Vikings, Mullens posted 303 passing yards, two touchdowns and chipped in 10 rushing yards. While he did toss a pair of interceptions, a 24-plus-point day on the road was a nice early Christmas present for anyone brazen enough to play him.

Now that we have a more recent sample, gamers should feel some comfort in taking a chance on him this week. It really isn’t worth going into great detail about Mullens’ past starting tenures with San Francisco in 2018 and ’20, but he was fantasy-relevant multiple times and proved unafraid to push the ball downfield — that’s extra important because of the vertical threats in Minnesota’s aerial arsenal.

Having Justin Jefferson alone brings a dynamic that cannot be understated, and all of his defensive attention makes Jordan Addison‘s explosiveness that much more valuable. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is a chain-moving safety valve as well as a dangerous outlet in the red zone. Even peripheral options, such as versatile running back Ty Chandler and third receiver K.J. Osborn, can do checkdown damage to help enhance Mullens’ chances of posting QB1 numbers.

[lawrence-related id=486065]

Mullens is at home vs. Detroit, a group that has allowed an average of 22.7 fantasy points to the position this year. In the last six weeks since the Lions came out of the bye, half of the performances have been good for 27 or more points. Ten quarterbacks have gone for at least 21.8 points, and the matchup is 16% easier than average in the last five weeks.

The key factor here will be game script. If the Lions come out and lay an egg on offense, there’s not going to be a need for Mullens to throw much more than 30 times. Detroit has done the best job at limiting running backs this year, so Minnesota will need to put the ball in the air regardless of how many points the Lions hang on the board, but this one could turn into a shootout of sorts if Jared Goff is dealing.

Divisional matchups tend to be unpredictable given how uniquely familiar each squad is with one another, and this is the first meeting between the two in 2023. Minnesota’s offense gets the edge here with the Lions not having extensive opposition research on Mullens’ recent tendencies.

My projection: 24 of 36, 288 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 INT, 6 rushing yards (26.0 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 15

This slumping RB has a great opportunity to soar once again.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-8-0
All-time record: 25-39-3 (39.7%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D

I went with Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett last week, projecting a modest 13.9 points. He finished with 8.9 even after the Chargers lost Justin Herbert (finger). The Bolts had the ball in the red zone late in the contest, and backup quarterback Easton Stick bypassed a wide-open Everett for a short touchdown, instead zipping an unnecessary fastball toward Austin Ekeler that led to an incompletion.

While frustrating, I can’t get too worked up about it. This one was within reach until the waning moments, even with one of the least capable No. 2 quarterbacks in the league on the field.

This week, we turn to a veteran ball carrier whose season has been a tale of two halves thus far.

Philadelphia Eagles RB D’Andre Swift at Seattle Seahawks

From Week 2 — when injury thrust him into the lineup — through Week 8, Swift dominated the backfield and posted at least 10.5 PPR points in each contest. During that stretch, he topped 15 points four times and solidified himself as one of the best fantasy surprises the position has offered in 2023.

But over the last five games, Swift’s season has gone sideways. He has seen two fewer targets, on average, scored only once, and has posted more than 9.4 PPR points a single time, which came three contests ago. Swift has been only fractionally less efficient in terms of his yardage per touch, but the lack of scoring has crippled his fantasy value. In the seven-game hot streak, he found the end zone once every 35.8 touches, and that number has nearly doubled to a TD every 69 handles in the last five appearances.

Philadelphia, losers of consecutive games for the first time since midway into the 2021 season, will look to get on track vs. an inconsistent Seattle defense. While fireworks from the passing game come to mind when thinking about this offense, make no mistake, the Eagles thrive when the ground attack is clicking. Expect a rededicated approach to the rushing game.

[lawrence-related id=485709]

The Seahawks have allowed running backs to post top-10 stats in nearly every meaningful category related to fantasy success. Since Week 9, the position has averaged the 10th-most rushing yards (105.2), eighth-most receptions (5.6), fifth-most aerial yards (50), fifth-most total yards (155.2), second-highest efficiency rating, fourth-most standard fantasy points (23.9), and second-most PPR points (29.5) against this defense. All of that sorts out to Seattle being 34% easier to exploit than the league average.

On the year, that figure is 19%, which is mostly powered by the position scoring 14 rushing touchdowns and a pair more through the air. Long story short, versatile RBs have done the most damage. Fifteen backs have posted double-digit PPR results, and nine of those efforts were good for at least 15 points.

The Seahawks have done a better job of limiting wide receivers, and while there’s always the possibility Philadelphia unleashes its pent-up frustration on this secondary in such a way that Swift isn’t needed as much, there’s still enough to like from an efficiency perspective. It’s understandable if owners in the postseason are ready to cut bait for a safer option, but sticking with the former Detroit Lion one more week is a worthwhile risk to take.

My projection: 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards (19.9 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 14

A true risk-reward play, this veteran tight end has a great matchup.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-7-0
All-time record: 25-38-3 (40.2%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+

In some ways, claiming a win from last week’s recommendation of Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson feels a little dirty. It rarely works out when a promoted player throws three picks, but he saved the day with a rushing touchdown and finished QB10 in a week with six teams on bye. Had Wilson not thrown the three picks, his final fantasy tally would have been the exact 23.7 points I projected.

We’ll take every victory we can get, and Week 13’s dub makes it five straight after an embarrassing 1-7 start to the season. Keep grinding, folks.

Los Angeles Chargers TE Gerald Everett vs. Denver Broncos

Preface: This one isn’t for everyone and requires an conscious willingness to gamble. Fortunately, tight end is the most volatile position from week to week, and the crop of safe plays is wafer thin.

The main reason to be concerned is Everett’s typical lack of volume, but that trepidation is lessened by his recent uptick in action. The past two weeks have seen him get targeted four and five times, respectively, with the veteran securing four in each contest. He has 43 and 44 yards in those outings, and Everett found paydirt in Week 12 for his third score in the last six outings.

[lawrence-related id=485429]

Now, the target share should decrease if Joshua Palmer (knee) indeed returns this week; he was limited during the first two days of practice. Could there be some rust? Sure. But the volume isn’t what makes Everett attractive. (Friday update: Palmer has been ruled out, making Everett a safer choice.)

In the last five weeks, Denver has given up touchdowns at the seventh-highest rate, and this is the No. 2 matchup for points in non-PPR as well as reception-rewarding formats. The position has scored three times in the most recent four games against this defense, and just three teams have surrendered more yards per game since Week 8 than Denver’s 72. The success hasn’t been isolated to the second half of the season, however, as the Broncos rate tied for dead last at defending TEs in 2023.

Given the rather low probability of Everett seeing more than five or six targets, he’s overly reliant on getting into the end zone, and that’s is entirely to the focus of this risk-reward calculation.

While this projected line isn’t extreme, it would have placed in the TE1 category in each of the last five weeks.

My projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards, 1 TD (13.9 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

Six bye teams makes settling on a safer floor a little more important this week.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 5-7-0
All-time record: 24-38-3 (39.2%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4 138.8 80.3
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B-

The one thing I most worried about last week when recommending Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew was the possibility of Jonathan Taylor defying the odds and stealing the show, which is what happened. Tampa Bay had been stout vs. running backs basically all year, but the star back ran for two touchdowns and Indy didn’t have to throw a ton. Fortunately, Minshew punched in one of his own, which saved my bacon since he failed to throw for a touchdown.

This week, we stick with the quarterback position in a week that features six teams on bye, and four of them tend to be worthy of fantasy attention. While I’m not entirely confident in this week’s choice, he makes for a valid boom-or-bust play with the fake playoffs are looming.

Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson at Houston Texans

Even during Denver’s recent five-game winning streak, Wilson has not thrown for more than 259 yards in any outing, and he has topped out at 20.7 PPR points. A major reason for Denver’s success is the coaching staff has taken the ball out of his hands in an effort to limit his opportunities for making mistakes, which has paid off. Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, and the Broncos have relied on the running game to help alleviate pressure. In Denver’s six wins this year, Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in all but one outing, making efficiency paramount with respect to his fantasy output.

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During the recent winning streak, Wilson has averaged 18.9 fantasy points and would rank 15th in per-game results at the position (among QBs with at least four starts). He has outperformed Patrick Mahomes in that window. In this upcoming bye-heavy week, gamers lose Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs from the 14 passers ranked ahead of Wilson. But frequent starters Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are off this week to further diminish the pool. Translation: Our standards of what we constitute as a successful fantasy play should be lowered.

On Houston’s side of this matchup, the defense has allowed quarterbacks to average the 11th-most fantasy points per game on the year, but that number jumps to No. 7 in the last five weeks. QBs have rushed for a pair of scores in that span, and Wilson has one to his credit, too, but any ground-based success should be considered a bonus here. Removing the rushing TDs positions Houston as the ninth-weakest unit at defending signal callers in that period of play.

In terms of raw numbers, this level of success looks like 285 yards, a TD every 16.1 completions, and an interception every 42.3 attempts. The yardage sits fifth, whereas the scoring rate is a neutral 17th. Getting back to Wilson’s need for efficiency, the Texans have yielded the ninth-highest rate of fantasy points per play and the third-best yards per completion.

Furthermore, Houston has held RBs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, on average, since Week 7, and this is a neutral matchup for getting into the end zone on the ground.

In closing, don’t feel strongly compelled to start Wilson if there’s a clearer option present. If the target is to start a solid player with a quality matchup outlook, ample weaponry, and a reasonably sturdy floor, Wilson is a low-end starting option.

My projection: 20-of-30 attempts, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 5 rushes, 23 yards (23.7 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 12

Fresh off a bye, the Colts face a pass-friendly fantasy matchup to exploit.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 4-7-0
All-time record: 23-38-3 (38.3%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4 138.8
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+

Last week, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley was the selection and made it three straight successful recommendation. He turned in a monster effort after failing to reach seven PPR points in three of the previous four games. Scratching and clawing my way back to getting even, this week’s choice is a former Jaguar who is trying to navigate a divisional foe to victory over a member of the NFC South.

Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minshew returns from the bye with wide receiver Josh Downs no longer on the injury report, which helps his odds. Another factor working in the quarterback’s favor is that Tampa Bay has been strong against running backs, which should lead to a bit more passing from Indy.

In addition to Downs, who is having a strong rookie campaign, Minshew will have Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and tight end Kylen Granson available. The Bucs have given up a fair amount of work to TEs so far, and the position has been rocked by receivers not only on the year but even more so in the last few weeks. This matchup for wideouts sits 60.4% easier than the league average in the last three weeks, 33.8% over the last five, and 24.1% on the season. That kind of success rarely occurs without a strong quarterback performance.

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At home, Indianapolis battles a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (23.2) to quarterbacks in 2023. Over the last five weeks, no defense has given up more points to the position (28.2). In the past three contests, we’ve seen Brock Purdy (30.1) and C.J. Stroud (44.4) explode vs. Tampa as injuries and a lack of pressure have played major roles in the aerial success.

Every passer but rookie Will Levis posted at least 250 yards and 22 or more fantasy points following the Buccaneers’ Week 5 bye. Three of those guys went for 30 or more points, and Josh Allen is the only name on that list anyone drafted as a fantasy QB1.

As long as Minshew puts the ball up 30 times, he’s a decent bet to finish as a fantasy starter this week. The major risk at play here is he hasn’t done either of those things in the last three games.

My projection: 21-of-31 attempts, 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 7 yards (22.6 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 11

In a season filled with ups and downs, expect a return to fantasy utility from this wideout.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 3-7-0
All-time record: 21-38-3 (36.3%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+

Well, look at that … consecutive “wins” and a resounding one last week with the choice of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Hopefully, this slight momentum builds and leads to a third straight week of successful prognostication!

Like Smith, this week’s selection is a universally owned receiver whose preseason expectations have overshadowed his actual production.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley vs. Tennessee Titans

The former Atlanta Falcons receiver has been all over the map in 2023, and the last four games have seen Ridley post three lines with 26 offensive yards being his ceiling; a six-catch, 83-yarder headlines that stretch. He hasn’t scored since Week 4.

It hasn’t been all bad for Ridley in his first year as a Jaguar. He has four games with at least 11.8 PPR returns, and two of those outings were north of 20 points. Six of his nine appearances have seen at least seven targets sent Ridley’s way. His biggest issue has been wild inconsistency. The peaks and valleys have been dramatic, and when the vet has been bad, we’re talking four games with seven or fewer points. Some of the struggles can be pinned on erratic quarterback play, but difficult matchups have factored in a substantial manner.

The matchup is 14.9% easier to exploit than the league average on the year and 11.3% softer in the last five weeks. Tennessee having faced a pair of suspect passing games along the way (IND, ATL) has kept this from being an even stronger matchup rating.

There’s a quality opportunity to get on track this week vs. a Tennessee unit that has permitted wide receivers to average the 13th-most catches and 12th-most yards per game since Week 5 ended. A dozen squads have ceded TDs at a higher clip over that period. On the year, eight receivers have gone for at least 16 PPR points against the Titans, and Ridley should make it nine.

My projection: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD (20.9 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

A premier matchup has a struggling veteran poised to rebound in Week 10.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 2-7-0
All-time record: 20-38-3 (32.8%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+

Last week’s selection of New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry was a risky proposition, but he came through to exceed the threshold and return close enough to the projected line to be considered a “win” for this article’s purposes.

This week, we train our focus on a floundering quarterback whose contributions to fantasy teams has been sorely lacking, but some fortunate gamers get a massive break in a week in which the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts are on bye.

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. Washington Commanders

Following his breakout 2022 season, Smith has finished no better than QB8 in any contest this year, which came way back in Week 2. He has only three appearances with 20 or more fantasy points along the way, and managers who drafted him as a starter have suffered through no touchdowns in two of Smith’s last four outings.

The Seahawks have the necessary weapons to get the job done, and running back Kenneth Walker III (chest) is banged up. He has been on the injury report the last two weeks with various ailments, including a minor calf issue entering Week 8. Plus, Washington is respectable against running backs, and this defense is vastly weaker at slowing wide receivers.

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Smith should have ample time to throw, even though his line has given up the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Washington traded away its two most talented pass rushers, and this defense has applied pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in 2023.

The trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hip) easily have the upper hand vs. a feeble secondary, particularly down the field as this group has faced the third-highest average depth per target. Teams don’t take that many deep shots without an obvious reward. With vertical specialists in Metcalf and JSN, Washington could give up several huge plays, even if Smith has a low-volume day.

Quarterbacks have posted at least 279 yards and two touchdowns in five of the last six contests against the Commanders, and this matchup is 32.3% better than the league average in that time frame. On the season, the matchup is even more favorable for Smith. Through nine showings, Washington has permitted 19 touchdown passes (T-1st) and the third-most fantasy points, on average. One in 16.7 attempts has found the end zone, and one in 10.4 completions went for six points. QBs have averaged 264.9 aerial yards over the course of 2023.

Smith has more or less been a fantasy anchor this year but is in a prime situation to exploit a plus matchup.

My projection: 23-of-35 attempts for 286 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 rushes for 6 yards (22.9 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 9

Will this once-vaunted TE rise from the ashes to contribute line lineups this week?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 9

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-7-0
All-time record: 19-38-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F-

This train wreck continues … the absolute worst part of it for me has been two of the last three weeks I simply chose the wrong player. In Week 6, I strongly debated taking Tyler Boyd, and last week I stupidly ignored my gut and took Jamaal Williams over Gabe Davis. So, let’s see if I can pick the right guy (Royce Freeman is my other strong lean) and put another W on the board …

New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Washington Commanders

I fully recognize this one is about as risky as they come, and it doesn’t do me any favors from the W-L perspective, because the odds definitely are stacked against this one coming to fruition.

Henry has not topped 9.1 PPR points or scored since Week 2, and the former Los Angeles Charger has no more than three targets in the last month of play. The chemistry with Mac Jones just hasn’t been there, and that’s a major concern in this recommendation.

However, necessity is the mother of invention, and the idea here is the loss of wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) as well as the utter void of connection between Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots are desperately in need of someone to step up in the passing game, so there’s a clear path to an increased target share for Henry.

Washington has totally flopped vs. the position in the last month. This matchup rates in the top eight for receptions and yardage per game as well as ease of TDs in relation to catches allowed since Week 3. Tight ends have averaged 5.8 receptions, 59.8 yards, and a TD every 7.3 grabs, good for 16.6 PPR points an outing. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points per game in both primary scoring systems, and this is the fourth-most efficient matchup of the week.

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All four of the TDs against Washington have come in the last four weeks. In that time, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Darren Waller all posted at least 136 PPR points, with the New York Giant finishing with 22.8 as the high-water mark. Washington presents a matchup rating that is 66.7% higher than the league average in the last three weeks and 31.7% better in the most recent five games.

Henry isn’t going to be a volume guy in this one, but he certainly could tack on another touchdown to that list, and a pair of scores isn’t out of reach. Play him if you’re backed into a corner, but this likely will be an all-or-nothing result.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD (15.8 PPR points)