Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-7-0
All-time record: 25-38-3 (40.2%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
In some ways, claiming a win from last week’s recommendation of Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson feels a little dirty. It rarely works out when a promoted player throws three picks, but he saved the day with a rushing touchdown and finished QB10 in a week with six teams on bye. Had Wilson not thrown the three picks, his final fantasy tally would have been the exact 23.7 points I projected.
We’ll take every victory we can get, and Week 13’s dub makes it five straight after an embarrassing 1-7 start to the season. Keep grinding, folks.
Los Angeles Chargers TE Gerald Everett vs. Denver Broncos
Preface: This one isn’t for everyone and requires an conscious willingness to gamble. Fortunately, tight end is the most volatile position from week to week, and the crop of safe plays is wafer thin.
The main reason to be concerned is Everett’s typical lack of volume, but that trepidation is lessened by his recent uptick in action. The past two weeks have seen him get targeted four and five times, respectively, with the veteran securing four in each contest. He has 43 and 44 yards in those outings, and Everett found paydirt in Week 12 for his third score in the last six outings.
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Now, the target share should decrease if Joshua Palmer (knee) indeed returns this week; he was limited during the first two days of practice. Could there be some rust? Sure. But the volume isn’t what makes Everett attractive. (Friday update: Palmer has been ruled out, making Everett a safer choice.)
In the last five weeks, Denver has given up touchdowns at the seventh-highest rate, and this is the No. 2 matchup for points in non-PPR as well as reception-rewarding formats. The position has scored three times in the most recent four games against this defense, and just three teams have surrendered more yards per game since Week 8 than Denver’s 72. The success hasn’t been isolated to the second half of the season, however, as the Broncos rate tied for dead last at defending TEs in 2023.
Given the rather low probability of Everett seeing more than five or six targets, he’s overly reliant on getting into the end zone, and that’s is entirely to the focus of this risk-reward calculation.
While this projected line isn’t extreme, it would have placed in the TE1 category in each of the last five weeks.
My projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards, 1 TD (13.9 PPR fantasy points)