If there is a 2020 season, USC now has far fewer excuses

Plain talk. It is what it is.

If college football isn’t played this fall or in the spring of 2021, Clay Helton will be the head coach of USC football 12 months from now. He will have made it through another year on the job… without coaching a game.

As things stand, the fragility of college football for the next 12 months is so pronounced that even if a season is played, the outcome might not affect the employment status of Helton or any other coach.

We already know the length of the season will be shorter than usual, after the Big Ten and Pac-12 have downscaled their seasons to conference-only schedules. We also know fans won’t attend games in numbers beyond 20 to 35 percent of capacity (providing a generous high-end estimate), which itself makes any college football game played through June of 2021 (under a possible spring plan) a highly irregular event. Even if a coach stumbles, the circumstances might make athletic directors such as Mike Bohn reluctant to fire a coach.

Then add in the budgetary bloodbath being endured by athletic departments across the country.

Clay Helton could coach poorly this next season — if eight or 10 games are played — and still not suffer any immediate consequences. USC fans have to consider that (terrible) possibility.

However, it seems safe to say that if a season is played in the next 12 months, and Clay Helton doesn’t handle it well, he would — at best — enter 2021 on the hot seat. At worst, Bohn could fire Helton and give Graham Harrell the keys to the kingdom for a one-year 2021 trial run at a reduced cost. Then the program could see where it stands entering 2022. By then, it could make a run at a big name.

Why are we talking about Clay Helton’s hot seat when no football is being played? It’s very simple: With Alabama and Notre Dame not on the 2020 schedule after the Pac-12’s conference-only adjustment — announced on Friday — Helton has only one measuring stick if this season is played: the Pac-12.

Alabama and Notre Dame were always the toughest tasks for USC on the 2020 schedule. Now that they are out of the way, USC just has to compete against the Pac-12. Given that Utah should regress to some extent after an 11-win campaign in 2019, and given that USC was able to beat that Utah team anyway — with a third-string quarterback — the Trojans should expect to make the Pac-12 Championship Game if a season is played this fall or next spring.

Maybe Utah will overachieve and go 8-1 if the Pac-12 uses a nine-game league schedule. Maybe Utah will be so good that USC can produce a good season and yet not make the Pac-12 title game. If that happens, frustration about the season — while still real — would be tempered by the reality which sometimes emerges in sports: You can play well, but the opponent just might be better. If that happens, tip the cap to the Utes and move on.

But: If the Pac-12 has a nine-game schedule, USC should be no worse than 7-2. A 6-3 record in a nine-game slate — knowing that Alabama and Notre Dame were removed from the Trojans’ path — would be plainly unacceptable.

It might not get him fired in 2021, but if we do play football in the fall or the coming spring, Clay Helton can’t be mediocre if he wants a long-term future at USC.

This is what happens when Alabama and Notre Dame get removed from a schedule by a remarkable series of events.

USC to not play Notre Dame for the first time since 1945

No Irish

The Pac-12 was the next major conference to announce a massive shakeup in their scheduling for this fall’s football season. The Pac-12 joined the Big Ten in playing a conference-only schedule should the football season take place this fall. The news was first reported by Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic and then confirmed by the official announcement from the Pac-12 just moments ago.

With the Trojans playing a conference-only schedule, this means they will not play their biggest non-UCLA rival within one of college football’s longest-running inter-sectional rivalries. Yes, USC will not play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the first time since 1945. The last time the Trojans didn’t play the Irish was the 1943-’45 window during World War II. Coronavirus (and, one could argue, bad American governance) will now be the reason they don’t play for the first time in 75 years.

The Trojans will also avoid playing the Alabama Crimson Tide to open the season. In this specific sense, the Trojans likely dodged a bullet. The Crimson Tide were favorites to win the SEC and compete for a national championship come the winter. With everything up in the air and little time to prepare for these games, it’s probably a good idea that this game isn’t being played. It’s the highest level of football you can get; a lack of prep time is the easiest way to ensure injuries on both teams.

You simply need more time to play a game like this and the powers that be couldn’t do that safely. To that end, it’s a good thing that USC and Alabama will not play this year, but let’s hope the two schools find a way to reschedule a game that would be highly entertaining. It deserves to be played when the country isn’t being swarmed by a pandemic.

Another team that will lose out on playing USC is New Mexico. Similar to the Alabama game but inverted, it’s probably a good thing for New Mexico that the Lobos won’t have to play USC for all the reasons listed above; injuries and lack of prep time just don’t bode well for a team with an already glaring physical deficiency in this game. The Lobos will lose a good paycheck, though, and that’s the type of stuff that helps fund other programs.

Pac-12 Announces Conference-Only Football Schedule

The news drops, as expected.

In a move which was expected, following the Big Ten’s announcement of conference-only scheduling and the Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach making this initial report on Thursday, the Pac-12 Conference did indeed announce on Friday a move to a conference-only schedule for the upcoming 2020 football season. The likelihood of the adjusted plan was again reported by Auerbach on Friday afternoon.

The Pac-12 then made the announcement later in the day:

Let’s start with a necessary word of caution: Whether the conference actually plays a football schedule at all this fall remains up in the air following this move.

Trojans Wire explored the feasibility of a conference-only schedule in an article Thursday. It doesn’t seem that a conference-only schedule is going to prevent infections at a rate lower than a full schedule would allow. The theory behind a conference-only schedule is that it makes it a bit easier to track and trace, and to generally handle a number of logistical details, but one has to wonder if that’s really the case when taking into account the massive geographical expanse covered by the Pac-12 Conference.

The Pac-12 Conference covers six states, reaching as far north as Pullman, Washington, as far east as Boulder, Colorado, and as south as Tucson, Arizona. There’s a lot of travel and a number of precautions to take in the league. The Pac-12, occupying the Western United States, is spread out in ways most other conferences aren’t. Lots of SEC, ACC, and Big Ten teams coexist in relatively close proximity. Some schools in those Power Five conferences must fly long distances to play each other, but the Pac-12 has more long commutes for each of its member schools.

The Oregon schools and the Washington schools aren’t too far apart; the same goes for the Los Angeles schools and the Arizona schools… but in terms of all 12 schools traveling to other game sites, there aren’t as many short hops as there are in other Power Five leagues. It’s quite an undertaking and seems a difficult task to pull off.

If this allows the conference a better shot at handling these issues, I’m all for the Pac-12 playing a conference-only schedule. My suspicion, however, is that we will see this conversation be revisited fairly soon. One FCS league has already ditched fall football, so it wouldn’t be too shocking to see other leagues follow suit.

Another aspect to consider here is the financial cost of traveling these distances in an economic downturn. At a time when schools, including Stanford in the Pac-12, are cutting large swaths of sports, traveling all over the West Coast might not be the most prudent financial decision. It’s certainly difficult to justify when other students are being told their entire worlds are about to change. Any way you slice it, playing college football in the fall is going to be a chore. Whatever decisions these schools take should have athlete safety at the top of the priority list.

It’s time to stop trying to make ‘fetch’ happen

Real talk about the present moment

What a week of turmoil and tumult for college sports.

Wednesday it was announced that Ohio State football had suspended voluntary workouts. That was just the beginning. On Thursday, it was announced the Big Ten had suspended all non-conference games and would only be playing a conference schedule this fall. Shortly after this announcement, the Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach said that the Pac-12 could soon adopt a conference-only schedule. This report was then confirmed by another reporter. These events represent a series of dominoes falling, one by one, and each of them moves college football one step closer to being canceled in its entirety for the current sports cycle (through June of 2021) or potentially moved to the spring.

But it’s clear from the rising cases and death tolls that the officials and powers that be should stop trying to make a season happen this year. It’s simply just not safe enough or worth the risk. The current administration has show no inclination to prevent further contamination, they’re currently telling folks that they need to learn to live with the disease. While younger people are less prone to dying, even one athlete’s life is not worth the risk of playing a game. Sports are the reward of a functioning society and we’re not there yet as a nation.

Football is great. I love the sport and hate that we have so few sports to watch right now. That said, I fully understand why we shouldn’t be playing them even as other nations are. They actually listened to scientists, stayed inside, wore masks, and the curve flattened and allowed them to return to a normal way of life. Not a single state has done that here in America, Washington probably comes the closest.

If fans want to see college football this fall, the formula is clear as day. Wash your hands, social distancing is a must, wear a mask, and self-quarantine. These simple items will do wonders in returning life to normal. When life returns to normal, sports will be back with a vengeance. Athletes want to play, fans want to see them play, but it’s imperative that they are healthy and safe when they play. If that can’t happen, then they shouldn’t be playing.

Why conference-only isn’t the solution

Spring football should be considered.

Wednesday it was announced that Ohio State football had suspended voluntary workouts. Thursday it was announced the Big Ten had canceled all non-conference games and would only play a conference schedule this fall. Shortly after this announcement, the Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach said that the Pac-12 would likely soon choose to play a conference-only schedule. This report was then confirmed by another reporter. Each of these instances amounts to just another notch closer to football being canceled in its entirety this fall, or postponed and potentially moved to spring.

But it’s clear from the rising cases and death tolls that the officials and powers that be should stop trying to make a season happen this year. It’s simply just not safe enough or worth the risk. The current presidential administration has shown no inclination to prevent further contamination; it is currently telling folks that they need to learn to live with the disease. While younger people are less prone to dying, even one athlete’s life is not worth the risk of playing a game. Sports are the reward of a functioning society, and we’re not there right now as a nation.

Conference-only games might seem like the solution here, but they’re not. The idea behind conference-only games is that schools can eliminate a number of environments they’re not familiar with in some cases; this hypothetically makes it easier for them to track-and-trace if there is an outbreak or an infection. It also does a decent job of limiting exposure in various forms. Yet, if a school is not able to completely eliminate risk or at least reduce it to an acceptable standard, it’s still a bad idea to conduct business as usual.

The Ivy League made the smart decision to not play any games this autumn. Not only does this allow them more time to get a handle on the COVID-19 cases in their immediate area, it also allows the universities in the league to create an environment in which the athletes are not in danger of contracting a virus simply so the school can make revenue by playing a football game. Spring football is becoming a more popular solution as this drama wears on. Perhaps it’s time the Pac-12 and USC gave spring football a closer look.

Twitter reacts to Georgia landing USC transfer QB JT Daniels

See Twitter reactions to USC QB JT Daniels transferring to the Georgia football program.

It’s official. USC transfer quarterback JT Daniels is a Georgia Bulldog per his Twitter account. The former 5-star out of Santa Ana, California was the No. 6 prospect in the 2018 recruiting class and the No. 3 rated quarterback behind Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.

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As a freshman, Daniels threw for 2,672 yards with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He entered the transfer portal in mid-April after his sophomore season was derailed by a knee injury. USC’s Kedon Slovis stepped in while Daniels was down and played well for the Trojans, making the transfer portal one of the only options for Daniels – reminiscent of the Eason/Fromm situation…

Georgia will have a lot of talent in its quarterback room this year.

Here is how Twitter reacted to the news:

 

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College Football News Preview 2020: USC Trojans

College Football News Preview 2020: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the USC Trojans season with what you need to know.

College Football News Preview 2020: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead to the USC Trojans season with what you need to know.


Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
Schedule Analysis
– USC Previews 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015

2019 Record: 8-5 overall, 7-2 in Pac-12
Head Coach: Clay Helton, 6th year, 40-22
2019 CFN Final Opinion Ranking: 19
2019 CFN Final Season Formula Ranking: 38
2019 CFN Preview Ranking: 26

No one knows what’s going to happen to the 2020 college football season. We’ll take a general look at where each team stands – doing it without spring ball to go by – while crossing our fingers that we’ll all have some well-deserved fun this fall. Hoping you and yours are safe and healthy.

5. College Football News Preview 2020: USC Trojans Offense 3 Things To Know

– The offense worked. After all the changes and adjustments to go all-in with the high-powered passing game under offensive coordinator and former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell worked.

Quarterback injuries were a problem, and the running game was a bit hit-or-miss, but the passing attack caught fire and finished as one of the nation’s most efficient. It was second in the Pac-12 and sixth in the country, and overall, the O averaged 455 yards and 32.5 points per game.

But when it didn’t rock, the team lost.

USC was 8-0 when scoring more than 27 points, and was 0-5 when it scored that many or fewer. Blame the defense, for the most part. Again, the offense worked, and it should be great again.


CFN in 60 Video: USC Trojans Preview
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Kedon Slovis was one of the biggest surprises in college football, stepping in and taking over the team after JT Daniels went down early on with a torn ACL. Daniels is transferring out and Jack Sears left for Boise State, but the depth is there.

Slovis hit 72% of his passes for over 3,500 yards with 30 touchdowns and nine touchdowns, but he also took a whole slew of massive shots. That’s where Vanderbilt transfer Mo Hasan comes in – he’ll battle with veteran backup Matt Fink to work behind Slovis.

The quarterback situation is good, but the receiving corps is in even better shape. Top target Michael Pittman is now an Indianapolis Colt, but the next three top wideouts are back, starting with with future NFL starter Amon-Ra St. Brown, coming off a 77-catch, 1,042-yard, six touchdown season.

Senior Tyler Vaughns is a terrific weapon, Drake London is a 6-5 athlete who’s a matchup nightmare, and on the way is top recruit Gary Bryant to fit in somewhere.

The tight ends aren’t going to get a ton of work unless redshirt freshman Jude Wolfe turns into a star, but Erik Krommerhoek is a terrific blocker and Daniel Imatorbhebhe is back in the mix.

It’s not that the running game was bad, it’s that the passing game was just that good. The Trojans got a decent year out of the offensive line, but it occasionally had a hard time gearing it up when it came time to blast away – the ground attack failed to hit 100 yards in four of the last five games.

Part of the issue was a banged up group of backs, but four good options are back to rotate in, starting with Vavae Malepeai. He led the team with 503 yards and six scores, but suffered a knee injury. Stephen Carr has had moments over his three seasons, but he’s never been a steady workhorse.

Star offensive tackle Austin Jackson was taken by the Miami Dolphins in the first round, but the entire offensive interior returns, with former guard Alijah Vera-Tucker likely to kick outside to take over Jackson’s spot.

NEXT: College Football News Preview 2020: USC Trojans Defense 3 Things To Know

USC 2020 Preview: CFN in 60

USC Trojans 2020 Preview: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead with what you need to know.

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

USC Trojans 2020 Preview: Previewing, predicting, and looking ahead with what you need to know.

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports