It was a magical 2022 season for the TCU Horned Frogs.
Legendary coach Gary Patterson steps down, and in comes Sonny Dykes. TCU goes 12-0 in the regular season, becoming the first Big 12 team since the 2016 Oklahoma Sooners to go 9-0 in conference play.
The Horned Frogs then went on to win the conference’s first College Football Playoff game, beating blue-blood Michigan in the process.
This year they are replacing a lot of talent. They rank 118th in returning production per ESPN (ESPN+).
The offense that finished 27th a year ago is only returning 33% of its production, which ranks next to last in the country.
They have to replace Heisman finalist Max Duggan, their top two running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado, and their top three receivers Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber, and Derius Davis. Additionally, former four-star wide receiver transferred to SMU.
In comes Chandler Morris, who won the starting job last year before being injured in the first game of the season.
Morris brings dual-threat potential and was really thought of as the better passer between him and Duggan. Can he replicate the work Magic Max did a year ago?
At running back, the Horned Frogs add Alabama Crimson Tide transfer Trey Sanders. Sanders only carried the ball 116 times for 528 yards and four touchdowns over three seasons with the Tide. A product of IMG Academy, Sanders was once the No. 1 running back in the 247Sports composite, the No. 6 player overall, and a five-star prospect in the nation. The talent is there to be a dynamic player for the Horned Frogs.
At wide receiver they bring in Oklahoma State Cowboys transfer John Paul Richardson and Alabama transfer Jojo Earle. Richardson caught 49 balls for 503 yards and four touchdowns for the Cowboys in 2022 and moves into a better passing attack than what he had with Oklahoma State. Last year with Alabama, Earle had 12 receptions for 155 yards and two scores.
The Horned Frogs will be replacing offensive coordinator Garrett Riley with Kendal Briles. A different system, but still expected to put up big numbers offensively.
Defensively they return 71% of their production from a season ago. On a defense that ranked 95th last year. Like the Oklahoma Sooners, they’re hoping their experience will help them grow as a defense.
The Horned Frogs return five of their top six players in tackles last season, including starting linebackers Johnny Hodges and Jamoi Hodge. They return three of their top five in sacks. However, they lost Dylan Horton and Dee Winters, who combined for 18 sacks a year ago.
It will be interesting to see how the Horned Frogs retool from a year ago. Dykes said he felt their skilled position players are better this year than last year. That could just be coach speak. It’s hard to lose a player like Quentin Johnston and be better. He was a dynamic player that could make plays at ever level of the passing game.
The thing that will be difficult to replicate is the success they had in close games. They went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including wins over Michigan, Baylor, Texas, and Kansas.
Only time will tell. Ultimately, this could be a weird game for Oklahoma. Coming off what should be a hard-fought battle in Provo, Utah. Now, you come home on a short week and play at 11:00 am CT on Black Friday.
Still, I like the Sooners until I see how TCU responds from last season.
Score Prediction: 41-30 Oklahoma
Predicted Record: 10-2
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