Tag: Tre’Davious White

The sky is not falling on the Buffalo Bills

Some familiar faces may be gone, but this is far from Armageddon for the Buffalo Bills

Alright, everyone take a deep breath and listen up.

It was a bleak day at One Bills Drive in Buffalo. Several long-term stars, including center Mitch Morse, cornerback Tre’Davious White, and safety Jordan Poyer were all released as Buffalo continues to gear toward getting back under the cap. However, the reactions that followed made it seem as if the sky was falling on the Bills.

Talks of “well, it looks like the Bills’ Super Bowl window has closed” or “Buffalo is officially rebuilding” started making the rounds on the app formerly known as Twitter.

Mind you, this all stems from Buffalo releasing a 33 year-old safety, a 32 year old center (whom they may actually try to bring back on a cheaper deal) and a 29 year old cornerback who has missed 24 of the team’s last 34 regular season games. That is what has everyone sticking a fork in the Buffalo Bills? That is what their window is hinged upon? Folks, if you have Josh Allen, your window is never closed. You’re never rebuilding, you’re reloading.

Now, in terms of a fan perspective, the sentimental wound is very real, and I can respect that. Poyer and White helped end the playoff drought in 2017, and Morse has been a focal point of the team’s offensive line since 2019. These are guys that have built relationships with the fans and the community, so of course it hurts seeing them go if you are a Bills fan. However, in terms of the on-field impact, the Bills are more than capable to retooling.

And if there is one group that Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott consistently knock out of the park, it’s defensive backs. Poyer and Micah Hyde are prime examples of that, They took two cast-offs and made them the best safety duo in football for half a decade. They turned seventh-round pick Dane Jackson into a reliable rotational cornerback. They got the absolute most out of Rasul Douglas after acquiring him ahead of the trade deadline.

On top of that, according to Spotrac, if the Bills do a full base salary and roster bonus conversion to signing bonus to Josh Allen’s deal, they can free up $22.7 million in cap space, which would make them cap compliant.

The day was filled with hard goodbyes for fans, but the Buffalo Bills are fine. They’ll need to address the secondary in free agency and the draft, as well as wide receiver, but this is far from Armageddon.

8 Bills players who could have played their last game with the team

8 #Bills players who could have played their last game with the team:

The 2023 NFL season has concluded as the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58.

Unfortunately, the same Chiefs ended the Buffalo Bills’ run to the Big Game a few weeks prior. In that outing, Buffalo lost 27-24 to Kansas City.

As it always goes at this time of the year, changes are en route. Multiple players, even featured ones, might have put on the blue and red for the final time in their careers against the Chiefs… or even some that were injured and unable to play could’ve done so even longer ago.

With that, here are eight Bills players who could have played their final game for the team:

Is this the end of the Buffalo Bills’ championship window?

Is this the end of the #Bills’ championship window? (@NFL_DougFarrar):

Let’s begin with the obvious: The Buffalo Bills were devastated by injuries this season. Losing their two best defensive players — linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White — to season-ending maladies was a major hit, and if either or both of those players were on the field in the divisional round, the result might have been different than the 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win.

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ white whale over the last half-decade in the postseason, but there’s now a darker question for Buffalo’s NFL franchise.

Is this the end of the championship window that began five years ago? The Bills had made the playoffs once from 2000 through 2017, but they’ve never missed a postseason since Josh Allen became their quarterback in 2018. The litany of losses takes the bloom off the rose, of course, and if this is a narrowing of those possibilities without even a Super Bowl appearance to show for it, that’s in its own way more frustrating than the Bills teams that lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 through 1993 seasons.

On the surface, the Bills would seem to have a reasonably bright contending future… and then you look at the impending free agents, and Buffalo’s 2024 salary cap situation.

Most of the players in question are replaceable over time with smart free-agency and draft decisions, but as Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com points out, there isn’t any room to operate in an aggressive fashion. The Bills have the NFL’s fourth-worst cap deficit in preparation for the new league year, and the contracts that are most onerous based on cost versus performance aren’t really moveable.

Receiver Stefon Diggs carries a $27,854 million cap charge in 2024, and the dead money incurred with his pre-June 1 release would be $31,096 million. Maybe there’s a trade or a later cut, but the capital they might get from a declining receiver is minimal, and a later cut just moves the money down the road.

Edge-rusher Von Miller has a $23,799 million cap charge for 2024, and a $32,501 million dead cap hit were he released. The structure of Miller’s contract is even more unfavorable pursuant to a post-June 1 release.

Those are the two biggest albatrosses other than Josh Allen’s $47,056,281 cap hit for 2024, and Josh Allen is actually worth that.

So, the Bills are facing decisions with other players whose released might be more manageable. That includes White (whose recent injury history may accelerate that decision), offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Rasul Douglas, and safety Jordan Poyer. Problem is, there isn’t one player on the roster whose release would provide massive cap relief — the Bills will have to gut this thing to a point. That’s what happens when you go all in on a championship as general manager Brandon Beane has done, and you can’t blame Beane for trying, but things are where they are.

Yes, the Bills have dynamic young players you can build a rebuild around. But at this point, when you look at the upcoming free-agency carnage and the ways in which the team’s player contracts are currently structured, it’s tough to imagine any scenario in which the Bills won’t have to take at least two steps back before taking any more steps forward.

And with no Super Bowl appearances to show for it, that’s an extremely tough reality.

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Is this the end of the Buffalo Bills’ championship window?

The Buffalo Bills now face a complicated offseason in which what they can spend doesn’t come close to what they need. Is the window closed?

Let’s begin with the obvious: The Buffalo Bills were devastated by injuries this season. Losing their two best defensive players — linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White — to season-ending maladies was a major hit, and if either or both of those players were on the field in the divisional round, the result might have been different than the 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win.

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ white whale over the last half-decade in the postseason, but there’s now a darker question for Buffalo’s NFL franchise.

Is this the end of the championship window that began five years ago? The Bills had made the playoffs once from 2000 through 2017, but they’ve never missed a postseason since Josh Allen became their quarterback in 2018. The litany of losses takes the bloom off the rose, of course, and if this is a narrowing of those possibilities without even a Super Bowl appearance to show for it, that’s in its own way more frustrating than the Bills teams that lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 through 1993 seasons.

On the surface, the Bills would seem to have a reasonably bright contending future… and then you look at the impending free agents, and Buffalo’s 2024 salary cap situation.

Most of the players in question are replaceable over time with smart free-agency and draft decisions, but as Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com points out, there isn’t any room to operate in an aggressive fashion. The Bills have the NFL’s fourth-worst cap deficit in preparation for the new league year, and the contracts that are most onerous based on cost versus performance aren’t really moveable.

Receiver Stefon Diggs carries a $27,854 million cap charge in 2024, and the dead money incurred with his pre-June 1 release would be $31,096 million. Maybe there’s a trade or a later cut, but the capital they might get from a declining receiver is minimal, and a later cut just moves the money down the road.

Edge-rusher Von Miller has a $23,799 million cap charge for 2024, and a $32,501 million dead cap hit were he released. The structure of Miller’s contract is even more unfavorable pursuant to a post-June 1 release.

Those are the two biggest albatrosses other than Josh Allen’s $47,056,281 cap hit for 2024, and Josh Allen is actually worth that.

So, the Bills are facing decisions with other players whose released might be more manageable. That includes White (whose recent injury history may accelerate that decision), offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Rasul Douglas, and safety Jordan Poyer. Problem is, there isn’t one player on the roster whose release would provide massive cap relief — the Bills will have to gut this thing to a point. That’s what happens when you go all in on a championship as general manager Brandon Beane has done, and you can’t blame Beane for trying, but things are where they are.

Yes, the Bills have dynamic young players you can build a rebuild around. But at this point, when you look at the upcoming free-agency carnage and the ways in which the team’s player contracts are currently structured, it’s tough to imagine any scenario in which the Bills won’t have to take at least two steps back before taking any more steps forward.

And with no Super Bowl appearances to show for it, that’s an extremely tough reality.

What we’ve learned about the Bills this season following the bye week

8 things:

The Buffalo Bills are ready to resume football this week as the 2023 bye is over. Up next is a tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

But before the Bills (6-6) take in another game, there’s already plenty we have learned about this team in 2023.

With that, here are eight things we’ve learned before the week off and as they come out of their bye week this season:

Stat shows depleted Bills defense unable to close games this season

Stat shows depleted #Bills defense unable to close games this season:

At the end of last season, the Buffalo Bills had a defense that many NFL teams feared. They had held opponents to the second-lowest points per game while securing 17 interceptions, generating 40 sacks, and forcing 11 fumbles. Buffalo’s defensive prowess helped propel the Bills to the No. 1 seed during the regular season.

Many fans and experts predicted Buffalo to continue to have an elite defense this year. However, injuries to many of their defensive stars have prevented their continued success.

Injuries across the defense, from defensive lineman to the secondary, have been rife with four players heading to the injured reserve list. Tre’Davious White in Week 4 was the start, quickly followed by Da’Quan Jones and 2022 All-Pro Matt Milano in Week 5 during their international game in London. A couple weeks later, Kaiir Elam joined his teammates on IR.

And while many defenders have stepped up into these roles, the performances have been noticeably different. Especially in the most difficult part of the game for defenders – near the end.

Now, the Bills defense is still creating takeaways (11 interceptions in 12 games, on pace with last year) and getting to opposing quarterbacks and forcing fumbles more. In fact, they already beat last year’s sack total and forced more fumbles before they reached their bye week, with five more games remaining.

But the Bills have comfortably won a handful games this season, including against the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Jets. And in those games, the Buffalo defense have generated turnovers in the air and on the ground while getting to the opposing quarterbacks several times.

It’s the games a team loses that usually show the defensive issues.

Currently, Buffalo is 6-6, and in their six games they have lost, their defensive has given up a lot of points.

Especially compared to last year’s Bills.. And especially at the end of games.

The 2023 Bills, in the fourth quarter and overtime, have given up more points that the 2022 Bills did in the entire season, according to independent Buffalo journalist Jerry Sullivan. And no matter how many turnovers a defense generates throughout the game, if they cannot stop offenses from scoring at the end of games then they will have trouble winning. Especially when they have been in 7 one-score games this season, winning only 2 of those games against below average teams (4-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 4-8 New York Giants).

The hope will be that Bills head coach Sean McDermott, who took over defensive coordinator duties during the offseason, will be able to use the upcoming bye week to address this issue:

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ESPN’s Ryan Clark breaks down Bills new defensive look vs. Bucs (video)

ESPN’s Ryan Clark breaks down #Bills new defensive look vs. #Bucs (video):

The Buffalo Bills defense have lost some key pieces in the last couple of weeks, with injuries to Tre’Davious White, Da’Quan Jones, and Matt Milano resulting in various second- and third-string players seeing their snap counts vary at their expected and alternate positions.

The tinkering on the defensive front happens throughout an NFL season, as injuries are always possible. To lose multiple key pieces across all levels of the defense is unlikely, but sometimes it happens.

Sean McDermott, who took over defensive coordinator duties this offseason, had looked at different ways to line up and include his extremely talented defenders on the field and players that can make big plays to disrupt the offensive timing for throws and tackle running backs behind the line of scrimmage.

In Week 8, the Buffalo defense lined up in a unique formation with three safeties on occasion. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky pointed out how the Bills lined up in this formation against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and how the formation allows for Buffalo’s talented safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to both be on the field while having a third safety, Taylor Rapp, drop into the linebacker role during passing downs.

And the former NFL quarterback asked guest Ryan Clark for this thoughts on the new personnel during ESPN’s NFL Live program. Clark played 12 years as a safety in the NFL across various defensive schemes and formations, and definitely knows a thing or two about winning. The NFL veteran started as safety for the Pittsburgh Steelers for five years, including during the 2008 season when he won Super Bowl XLIII.

Clark also highlighted to Orlovsky that the defensive scheme seemed to be a game plan for the Buccaneers specifically, given their inability to run the football and reliance on quarterback Baker Mayfield to beat opponents through the air.

You can watch the full clip of Clark and Orlovsky analyzing the Bills’ defense here following a segment on the Bills’ offense by Orlovsky:

Bills get CB Rasul Douglas from Packers. Grade: B+

The Bills’ trade for ex-Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas could be an object lesson in getting a good player out of a bad situation.

If the Buffalo Bills were going to get through the 2023 regular season and make any noise in the playoffs, they were going to have to find a way to replace No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn Achilles tendon in early October. Buffalo’s defense allowed an opponent Offensive EPA per Play of -0.26 with White on the field, and -0.01 when he’s been off. As opposing EPA is better when it’s negative, that gives you a good idea of White’s value.

Buffalo’s opponent Passing EPA per Play splits with and without White have been even more severe — -0.33 when he was on the field, and -0.02 when not. Now, we also have to take into account the injury losses of defensive lineman DaQuan Jones and linebacker Matt Milano, but the point still stands. White is the only Bills cornerback this season with an interception, and the only Bills cornerback allowing an opponent passer rating lower than 100 (80.6). The Bills’ cornerback rotation outside of White is decent enough, but without an alpha, it doesn’t work nearly as well.

So, if you look at the metrics for cornerback Rasul Douglas, who the Bills got in a trade with the Packers on Tuesday, it may look like another beta in a group filled with them. Buffalo got Douglas and a fifth-round pick for a third-round pick sent to Green Bay, and on the season so far, Douglas has allowed 23 catches on 34 targets for 274 yards, 102 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, one interception, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 109.2.

Further, Douglas’ seeming regression over the last three seasons would have you thinking that the Bills were chasing fool’s gold here.

But we need additional context to determine the success of this deal, and that comes from the tape. And the tape shows a defender who’s patient but aggressive, with all the movement skills required to at least contend with most opposing No. 1 receivers.

On this incompletion of a Jameis Winston pass to Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, Douglas matched Thomas on a quick comeback out of Cover-1, and shut it down.

And on this Jimmy Garoppolo pass to Jakobi Myers against the Raiders in Week 5, Douglas tore off his original assignment of receiver Tre Tucker to break up the crosser in Cover-3. The recognition skills and closing speed are what Bills head coach Sean McDermott and his staff liked when investigating this deal.

Metrics can’t really account for busted coverages, but tape can, and there were enough of those for the Packers this season to give Douglas the benefit of the doubt.

Douglas didn’t thrive as much as one might expect in Barry’s defense, but you could count on one hand the players who have in the last three seasons. Douglas’ complete skill set might be just what the Bills need to turn their defense around.

The stats are a bit squirrely, but the tape doesn’t lie.

8 takeaways from the first half of the 2023 Bills season

8 takeaways from the first half of the 2023 #Bills season:

The Buffalo Bills season is just about halfway over. With the way the NFL now sports a 17-game schedule, we’ll have to wait until halftime of their upcoming Week 9 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals to officially be at that exact point.

With that approximately 20 minute window at the half being a bit of a time crunch for players, coaches, writers, and… all of us–let’s get a head start on recapping the first half of the 2023 NFL season now.

There was a lot to take in.

Here are Bills Wire‘s eight takeaways from the first half of the team’s season below:

3 causes for concern as the Bills face the Buccaneers in Week 8

3 causes for concern as the #Bills face the #Buccaneers in Week 8:

The Buffalo Bills are looking to get back into the win column as they welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers home to Highmark Stadium to start off Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season.

Buffalo will be looking to make a statement after a disappointing loss to a division rival last week, the New England Patriots. While this can be an opportunity for Buffalo to win, there are never any easy games in the NFL and Thursday will not be easy.

Here are three causes for concern for the Bills (4-3) against the Buccaneers (3-3):