Is this the end of the Buffalo Bills’ championship window?

Is this the end of the #Bills’ championship window? (@NFL_DougFarrar):

Let’s begin with the obvious: The Buffalo Bills were devastated by injuries this season. Losing their two best defensive players — linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White — to season-ending maladies was a major hit, and if either or both of those players were on the field in the divisional round, the result might have been different than the 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win.

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ white whale over the last half-decade in the postseason, but there’s now a darker question for Buffalo’s NFL franchise.

Is this the end of the championship window that began five years ago? The Bills had made the playoffs once from 2000 through 2017, but they’ve never missed a postseason since Josh Allen became their quarterback in 2018. The litany of losses takes the bloom off the rose, of course, and if this is a narrowing of those possibilities without even a Super Bowl appearance to show for it, that’s in its own way more frustrating than the Bills teams that lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 through 1993 seasons.

On the surface, the Bills would seem to have a reasonably bright contending future… and then you look at the impending free agents, and Buffalo’s 2024 salary cap situation.

Most of the players in question are replaceable over time with smart free-agency and draft decisions, but as Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com points out, there isn’t any room to operate in an aggressive fashion. The Bills have the NFL’s fourth-worst cap deficit in preparation for the new league year, and the contracts that are most onerous based on cost versus performance aren’t really moveable.

Receiver Stefon Diggs carries a $27,854 million cap charge in 2024, and the dead money incurred with his pre-June 1 release would be $31,096 million. Maybe there’s a trade or a later cut, but the capital they might get from a declining receiver is minimal, and a later cut just moves the money down the road.

Edge-rusher Von Miller has a $23,799 million cap charge for 2024, and a $32,501 million dead cap hit were he released. The structure of Miller’s contract is even more unfavorable pursuant to a post-June 1 release.

Those are the two biggest albatrosses other than Josh Allen’s $47,056,281 cap hit for 2024, and Josh Allen is actually worth that.

So, the Bills are facing decisions with other players whose released might be more manageable. That includes White (whose recent injury history may accelerate that decision), offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Rasul Douglas, and safety Jordan Poyer. Problem is, there isn’t one player on the roster whose release would provide massive cap relief — the Bills will have to gut this thing to a point. That’s what happens when you go all in on a championship as general manager Brandon Beane has done, and you can’t blame Beane for trying, but things are where they are.

Yes, the Bills have dynamic young players you can build a rebuild around. But at this point, when you look at the upcoming free-agency carnage and the ways in which the team’s player contracts are currently structured, it’s tough to imagine any scenario in which the Bills won’t have to take at least two steps back before taking any more steps forward.

And with no Super Bowl appearances to show for it, that’s an extremely tough reality.

[lawrence-related id=131384,131382,131377]

Is this the end of the Buffalo Bills’ championship window?

The Buffalo Bills now face a complicated offseason in which what they can spend doesn’t come close to what they need. Is the window closed?

Let’s begin with the obvious: The Buffalo Bills were devastated by injuries this season. Losing their two best defensive players — linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White — to season-ending maladies was a major hit, and if either or both of those players were on the field in the divisional round, the result might have been different than the 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win.

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ white whale over the last half-decade in the postseason, but there’s now a darker question for Buffalo’s NFL franchise.

Is this the end of the championship window that began five years ago? The Bills had made the playoffs once from 2000 through 2017, but they’ve never missed a postseason since Josh Allen became their quarterback in 2018. The litany of losses takes the bloom off the rose, of course, and if this is a narrowing of those possibilities without even a Super Bowl appearance to show for it, that’s in its own way more frustrating than the Bills teams that lost four straight Super Bowls from the 1990 through 1993 seasons.

On the surface, the Bills would seem to have a reasonably bright contending future… and then you look at the impending free agents, and Buffalo’s 2024 salary cap situation.

Most of the players in question are replaceable over time with smart free-agency and draft decisions, but as Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com points out, there isn’t any room to operate in an aggressive fashion. The Bills have the NFL’s fourth-worst cap deficit in preparation for the new league year, and the contracts that are most onerous based on cost versus performance aren’t really moveable.

Receiver Stefon Diggs carries a $27,854 million cap charge in 2024, and the dead money incurred with his pre-June 1 release would be $31,096 million. Maybe there’s a trade or a later cut, but the capital they might get from a declining receiver is minimal, and a later cut just moves the money down the road.

Edge-rusher Von Miller has a $23,799 million cap charge for 2024, and a $32,501 million dead cap hit were he released. The structure of Miller’s contract is even more unfavorable pursuant to a post-June 1 release.

Those are the two biggest albatrosses other than Josh Allen’s $47,056,281 cap hit for 2024, and Josh Allen is actually worth that.

So, the Bills are facing decisions with other players whose released might be more manageable. That includes White (whose recent injury history may accelerate that decision), offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Rasul Douglas, and safety Jordan Poyer. Problem is, there isn’t one player on the roster whose release would provide massive cap relief — the Bills will have to gut this thing to a point. That’s what happens when you go all in on a championship as general manager Brandon Beane has done, and you can’t blame Beane for trying, but things are where they are.

Yes, the Bills have dynamic young players you can build a rebuild around. But at this point, when you look at the upcoming free-agency carnage and the ways in which the team’s player contracts are currently structured, it’s tough to imagine any scenario in which the Bills won’t have to take at least two steps back before taking any more steps forward.

And with no Super Bowl appearances to show for it, that’s an extremely tough reality.

Bills’ Sean McDermott does not expect Matt Milano to return in 2023

#Bills’ Sean McDermott does not expect Matt Milano to return in 2023:

The Buffalo Bills got some good and bad news regarding some long-term injuries on defense.

The Bills (8-6) designated defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to return from injured reserve on Monday ahead of facing the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9). Jones sustained a pectoral injury in October against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In that same game, linebacker Matt Milano was sent to injured reserve due to a leg injury.

Per head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo might see Jones soon… but Milano won’t be back.

The coach said it’s still anticipated that Milano will not return at any point this season or postseason if the Bills make it to the playoffs.

Without Milano, Buffalo’s defense has primarily used Tyrel Dodson at linebacker next to Terrel Bernard. Get used to that.

Bills Wire will provide updates (likely this offseason) when information is made available.

[lawrence-related id=128843,128835,128830]

Stat shows depleted Bills defense unable to close games this season

Stat shows depleted #Bills defense unable to close games this season:

At the end of last season, the Buffalo Bills had a defense that many NFL teams feared. They had held opponents to the second-lowest points per game while securing 17 interceptions, generating 40 sacks, and forcing 11 fumbles. Buffalo’s defensive prowess helped propel the Bills to the No. 1 seed during the regular season.

Many fans and experts predicted Buffalo to continue to have an elite defense this year. However, injuries to many of their defensive stars have prevented their continued success.

Injuries across the defense, from defensive lineman to the secondary, have been rife with four players heading to the injured reserve list. Tre’Davious White in Week 4 was the start, quickly followed by Da’Quan Jones and 2022 All-Pro Matt Milano in Week 5 during their international game in London. A couple weeks later, Kaiir Elam joined his teammates on IR.

And while many defenders have stepped up into these roles, the performances have been noticeably different. Especially in the most difficult part of the game for defenders – near the end.

Now, the Bills defense is still creating takeaways (11 interceptions in 12 games, on pace with last year) and getting to opposing quarterbacks and forcing fumbles more. In fact, they already beat last year’s sack total and forced more fumbles before they reached their bye week, with five more games remaining.

But the Bills have comfortably won a handful games this season, including against the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Jets. And in those games, the Buffalo defense have generated turnovers in the air and on the ground while getting to the opposing quarterbacks several times.

It’s the games a team loses that usually show the defensive issues.

Currently, Buffalo is 6-6, and in their six games they have lost, their defensive has given up a lot of points.

Especially compared to last year’s Bills.. And especially at the end of games.

The 2023 Bills, in the fourth quarter and overtime, have given up more points that the 2022 Bills did in the entire season, according to independent Buffalo journalist Jerry Sullivan. And no matter how many turnovers a defense generates throughout the game, if they cannot stop offenses from scoring at the end of games then they will have trouble winning. Especially when they have been in 7 one-score games this season, winning only 2 of those games against below average teams (4-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 4-8 New York Giants).

The hope will be that Bills head coach Sean McDermott, who took over defensive coordinator duties during the offseason, will be able to use the upcoming bye week to address this issue:

[lawrence-related id=127748,120409,127759]

ESPN’s Ryan Clark breaks down Bills new defensive look vs. Bucs (video)

ESPN’s Ryan Clark breaks down #Bills new defensive look vs. #Bucs (video):

The Buffalo Bills defense have lost some key pieces in the last couple of weeks, with injuries to Tre’Davious White, Da’Quan Jones, and Matt Milano resulting in various second- and third-string players seeing their snap counts vary at their expected and alternate positions.

The tinkering on the defensive front happens throughout an NFL season, as injuries are always possible. To lose multiple key pieces across all levels of the defense is unlikely, but sometimes it happens.

Sean McDermott, who took over defensive coordinator duties this offseason, had looked at different ways to line up and include his extremely talented defenders on the field and players that can make big plays to disrupt the offensive timing for throws and tackle running backs behind the line of scrimmage.

In Week 8, the Buffalo defense lined up in a unique formation with three safeties on occasion. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky pointed out how the Bills lined up in this formation against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and how the formation allows for Buffalo’s talented safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to both be on the field while having a third safety, Taylor Rapp, drop into the linebacker role during passing downs.

And the former NFL quarterback asked guest Ryan Clark for this thoughts on the new personnel during ESPN’s NFL Live program. Clark played 12 years as a safety in the NFL across various defensive schemes and formations, and definitely knows a thing or two about winning. The NFL veteran started as safety for the Pittsburgh Steelers for five years, including during the 2008 season when he won Super Bowl XLIII.

Clark also highlighted to Orlovsky that the defensive scheme seemed to be a game plan for the Buccaneers specifically, given their inability to run the football and reliance on quarterback Baker Mayfield to beat opponents through the air.

You can watch the full clip of Clark and Orlovsky analyzing the Bills’ defense here following a segment on the Bills’ offense by Orlovsky:

8 takeaways from the first half of the 2023 Bills season

8 takeaways from the first half of the 2023 #Bills season:

The Buffalo Bills season is just about halfway over. With the way the NFL now sports a 17-game schedule, we’ll have to wait until halftime of their upcoming Week 9 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals to officially be at that exact point.

With that approximately 20 minute window at the half being a bit of a time crunch for players, coaches, writers, and… all of us–let’s get a head start on recapping the first half of the 2023 NFL season now.

There was a lot to take in.

Here are Bills Wire‘s eight takeaways from the first half of the team’s season below:

Cowboys’ Micah Parsons: ‘Matt Milano is a top-three linebacker in the NFL’

Micah Parsons even raves about Matt Milano:

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is very, very good.

Since joining the league in 2021, he has continued to rack up sacks, fumbles, and awards.

And the 2021 Defensive Rookie Of The Year on his podcast The Edge with Micah Parsons recently spoke about an All-Pro linebacker on the Buffalo Bills.

Milano started the 2023 NFL season phenomenally for the Bills, and has received plaudits from everyone, including writers, teammates, and even opposing offensive coordinators. Unfortunately, Milano’s season was cut short due to a leg injury, and the Buffalo defense has severely underperformed during his absence.

And Parsons notices it, too.

“Obviously, you see the difference with Matt Milano. Matt Milano is, you know, a top three linebacker in the league, and I don’t care what no one says,” Parsons said on his podcast.

Parsons went on to highlight how he believes that Milano hasn’t received the appropriate praise. You can watch the full clip below:

Will the Bills All-Pro linebacker be back in time to face Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys in December? Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott provided a brief update on Matt’s presence around Orchard Park recently but there is still no timetable for his return.

But first, the Bills (5-3) will look to toppled the Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) without the reliable defender.

[lawrence-related id=125708,125682,120388]

3 causes for concern as the Bills face the Buccaneers in Week 8

3 causes for concern as the #Bills face the #Buccaneers in Week 8:

The Buffalo Bills are looking to get back into the win column as they welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers home to Highmark Stadium to start off Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season.

Buffalo will be looking to make a statement after a disappointing loss to a division rival last week, the New England Patriots. While this can be an opportunity for Buffalo to win, there are never any easy games in the NFL and Thursday will not be easy.

Here are three causes for concern for the Bills (4-3) against the Buccaneers (3-3):

Bills’ Sean McDermott provides brief update on Matt Milano

#Bills’ Sean McDermott provides brief update on Matt Milano:

Bills head coach Sean McDermott provided an, albeit small, update on the status of linebacker Matt Milano.

Milano, 29, suffered a knee/leg injury last month against the Jaguars in a 25-20 loss in London. The All-Pro linebacker has since been given a merky timetable for his return.

It seems likely that his season is over, but McDermott hasn’t gone as far as saying that. Milano has just been called “out indefinitely.”

The latest news is that Milano is back in Orchard Park. McDermott confirmed that the defender had been showing his face around the team facility recently. That likely means he has undergone treatment for the injury as well.

McDermott said it’s been a welcomed sign to see Milano again–which can also be taken as encouraging news.

Bare minimum, he feels well enough to be with this teammates.

McDermott’s full update on Milano can be found in the Bills Live clip below:

[lawrence-related id=125215,125209,125206]

NFL Next Gen Stats: Bills’ pass-rush defense sorely missing Matt Milano

NFL Next Gen Stats: #Bills’ pass-rush defense sorely missing Matt Milano:

The Buffalo Bills have been hit with the injury bug hard during the past couple weeks of the 2023 NFL season. The defensive side of the ball has seen key injuries across several starting positions.

Earlier this month, former All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White was placed on injured reserve and four days later, starting linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones joined White on the IR list.

Of the trio, Milano’s loss being felt the most according to NFL Next Gen Stats. According to the football analytics out, Buffalo’s pass rush is lacking without the linebacker.

Since Milano’s knee injury in Week 5, the Bills defense has been unable to defend the middle of the park. Not only has Buffalo stopped generating turnovers, but they are providing offenses ample time to find their open receivers to score touchdowns and performing at a league-worst rate:

Bills head coach Sean McDermott has his work cut out for him after taking over the defensive coordinator duties this season.

Rookie linebacker Dorian Williams is being given an opportunity to fill Milano’s shoes but it has not gone well. In two of three games, he’s been pulled for Tyrel Dodson.

If the first-year pro gets another shot, the is hope that Williams can make the jump up to a high-caliber level on Thursday against a strong, newly revamped Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) offensive line.

He’ll have his work cut out for him.

[lawrence-related id=125178,125170,125165]