Looking at prop bets centered around Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s receptions and receiving yards in Super Bowl LIV.
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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is expected to be one of the stars of Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we’ll look at BetMGM‘s prop betting odds and lines for Kelce’s reception and yardage projections in the big game, and make our best bets for Super Bowl LIV.
After catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 51-31 comeback victory over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Kelce was held to three catches and 30 yards on four targets in the AFC Championship against the Tennessee Titans.
The five-time Pro Bowler totaled 97 receptions, 1,229 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. He recorded more than five receptions on 10 occasions.
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Only four teams allowed fewer receptions per game to tight ends than the 49ers’ 4.1. Kelce will be heavily targeted by QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as the Chiefs’ No. 1 option in the passing game, but the Niners do a great job of limiting yards after the catch.
I’d expect a drop in his efficiency after averaging 12.8 yards per reception in the regular season, but I’m taking the OVER 5.5 (-147) as Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy scheme to keep him involved, especially on third downs and near the goal line.
Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl LIV receiving yards: 76.5
Photo Credit: Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports
No team allowed fewer receiving yards per game to tight ends in the regular season than the 49ers. They surrendered just 34.5 yards per game to the position. Kelce topped this projection in each of his first four games of the regular season, but he did so just thrice more through the final 12 games and in only one of the Chiefs’ two playoff games.
As mentioned above, I like Kelce to stay involved on key possessions and stay closer to the line of scrimmage. The Niners will wrap him up down the field and limit his yards after the catch. Take the UNDER 76.5 (-111) as Mahomes and his go-to target are forced more into more of a possession-based passing attack.
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The Chiefs tight end and 49ers tight end have a mutual respect despite the fact one may decide the result of Super Bowl 54.
49ers tight end George Kittle and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce have a unique bond as the two top tight ends in the NFL. There’s no animosity between the two though, even as they gear up to play for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.
Kelce was asked about Kittle on Monday during Super Bowl Opening Night, and gave a glowing review of the First-Team All-Pro.
“George Kittle, man. I was just talking about his tenacity,” Kelce told NFL Network’s Deion Sanders. “How he runs routes. How he plays the game with a certain level of energy and enthusiasm, man you gotta love it. And there’s nothing you dislike about that guy’s game. Just trying to take it to the next level every single time he plays.”
This isn’t the first time the two have been neck-and-neck competing for something. They also jousted for the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end during the 2018 season.
Kelce set the record with 1,336 yards during the final week of the season. Then just hours later, Kittle broke Kelce’s record with a 149-yard performance against the Rams that put him at 1,377 for the season.
While there’s a deep mutual respect between the two players, that won’t be a factor when they face off for Super Bowl LIV, especially since one huge performance from one of the tight ends could be the difference in what’s sure to be a very competitive game.
Looking at the best prop bet picks to score the a touchdown in Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
One of the most popular prop bets every year for the Super Bowl is picking which players will score a touchdown in the game. Over the years, there have been some surprising touchdown scorers, such as Malik Jackson, Gary Russell, Brandon LaFell, and, of course, L.J. Smith.
With Super Bowl LIV just a few days away, here are some of our favorite picks to score a touchdown on Sunday night:
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (+105)
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)
The best bet to score a touchdown on Sunday has to be Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce, who has now scored five touchdowns in his last five playoff games. When the Chiefs get close to the end zone, they often will target their big tight end. Andy Reid will also draw up plays for Kelce as a wildcat runner, making him even more dangerous in the red zone. Consider him basically a lock to reach the end zone at least once against the 49ers.
Special sports betting line for the big game
Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.
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Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (+110)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill. (Photo credit Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports)
While Tyreek Hill has yet to have a monster playoff game during his NFL career (no games with at least 90 yards receiving), Super Bowl LIV seems like the perfect opportunity for him to shine. In the last two seasons with Patrick Mahomes, Hill has scored 20 touchdowns in 28 contests. When Mahomes is looking to throw the ball deep, you can bet he is searching for Hill.
Given that 49ers have an older secondary, look for the Chiefs to attack them down the field and for Hill to have multiple chances at scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
49ers TE George Kittle (+120)
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle. (Photo credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports)
Arguably the best non-quarterback in this game on Sunday is 49ers tight end George Kittle, who was named first-team All-Pro this season. While Kittle has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season, the team may need to rely on him to do some of the heavy lifting on offense in this game. Look for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to target his superstar tight end early and often during the Super Bowl.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel (+200)
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. (Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)
Much like the Chiefs with Hill, the 49ers do everything in their power to make sure rookie receiver Deebo Samuel touches the ball plenty. He’s a dynamic player who is explosive with the ball in his hands. During the 2019 season, Samuel scored six touchdowns on just 71 offensive touches. If this game turns into a shootout like many people expect, look for Samuel to get quite a few looks inside the red zone.
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (+390)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman. (Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)
If you are searching for better odds on a touchdown bet, look no further than the Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman, like Samuel a rookie tight end. His role in the offense continues to grow and he has already proven himself as a return threat. In the team’s two playoff games, he racked up 228 kickoff return yards. He has outstanding speed, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the rookie took a jet sweep for a touchdown or caught a bomb from Mahomes at some point in the game. At nearly 4-1 odds, Hardman is a fun long-shot prop bet.
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Former Georgia Bulldog Mecole Hardman Jr. will be playing in Super Bowl LIV as his Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers.
Former Georgia Bulldog Mecole Hardman Jr. will be playing in Super Bowl LIV as his Kansas City Chiefs face off against the dominant San Francisco 49ers. Hardman Jr. will play a big-role in the game. He’ll have a chance to provide to Chiefs with a spark with a return, catch, or jet sweep.
Games like this are why the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Hardman in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The Chiefs were looking for another explosive receiver in their passing game to compliment Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Travis Kelce. Patrick Mahomes leads Kansas City’s offense, which is averaging 43 points per game in the playoffs.
The Chiefs face their toughest opponent of the 2020 postseason in the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are allowing 15 points per game in the playoffs. San Francisco features an elite pass rush and a stout secondary including Richard Sherman, arguably the best corner in the NFL. Sherman will match up with Kelce, Watkins, and Hill often, but will rarely face Hardman. This will give Hardman a unique opportunity to make a splash play in a championship game. When Patrick Mahomes gets enough time, will he and Hardman be able to hook up for the next big Super Bowl moment?
Hardman has made numerous big-plays this season and could make the difference with one the Super Bowl. Georgia football released a hype video of Hardman’s explosive play-making ability ahead of the Super Bowl:
The Titans stole a red-zone play from the Chiefs for the first touchdown of the AFC Championship game.
It’s long been said that imitation is the greatest form of flattery. If that’s the case, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel just gave Chiefs head coach Andy Reid quite the compliment. Tennessee was already up 3-0 on the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game when running back Derrick Henry took the direct snap for a four-yard touchdown run.
As Jim Nantz and Tony Romo pointed out on the CBS commentary, this touchdown was quite similar to a four-yard touchdown run by tight end Travis Kelce in Week 14, when the Chiefs beat the Patriots with it. Fake the pitch to the man in motion, and run it up the gut.
That, and the corresponding extra point, put the Titans up, 10-0. The Chiefs have one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses, but that’s a lot to answer in such a big game. That said, Kansas City did cede a 14-0 lead to New England in last year’s AFC Championship game before coming back and forcing the game to overtime, though they ultimately lost, 37-31.
Here’s a look at five Chiefs players to keep an eye on this week.
Sunday’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs will be the determining factor in which team represents the AFC in Super Bowl LIV.
Both teams will need breakout performances from some of their key players to come out with the win, and both Tennessee and Kansas City present their own unique challenges to their opponent.
Here’s a look at five Chiefs players to keep an eye on this week.
1. RB Damien Williams.
The Chiefs are much more of a passing team than they are a rushing team, but Williams has been an asset, finding the end zone on receptions and carries.
He’s been a historically dominant player in the postseason, having recorded four rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores in postseason contests, including last year’s.
He was a key factor in last week’s win over the Texans, finishing out with two rushing scores and one receiving touchdown.
With just four teams remaining, here’s one thing each of these teams must do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Losing in any elimination game gives you the entire offseason to think about the things you should have done. For the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers, there’s still that one last hope for the Super Bowl that no other team still has this season. The AFC and NFC Championship game entrants have faced off in the regular season already.
In Week 10, the Titans came back from a 10-0 Chiefs lead, and Patrick Mahomes’ three-touchdown performance, to beat Kansas City 35-32. Ryan Tannehill, still in his first few games as Marcus Mariota’s replacement, threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Adam Humphries with 29 seconds left in regulation, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker missed a potential game-tying 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. At least the Chiefs can say they were in that game.
The Packers, not so much. In Week 12, the 49ers beat the daylights out of Green Bay, 37-8. Aaron Rodgers averaged 3.15 yards per completion when he was able to throw the ball, the Packers went 1-for-15 on third down, and a defense that had been relatively on point allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to look like Joe Montana.
Still, the good news for both losing teams in this instance is that neither the Chiefs nor the Packers have lost a single game since those particular defeats. Mahomes seems to have recovered from his in-season injuries, Green Bay’s passing offense is more explosive, Kansas City’s defense is far better than it used to be, and the Packers’ coverage units seem to have recovered from what 49ers head coach and play-designer Kyle Shanahan did to them.
So, if we take the conference title games as new entities (as we should) while attempting to learn from the past, here’s one thing each of the remaining teams should do if they want to make it to Super Bowl LIV.
Top-ranked DFS PRO Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite Daily Fantasy Football plays at various salary ranges for the AFC & NFC Championship Weekend of the NFL. Find out who Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Top-ranked DFS PRO Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite Daily Fantasy Football plays at various salary ranges for the AFC & NFC Championship Weekend of the NFL. Find out who Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
QUARTERBACKS
PATRICK MAHOMES- $7700 DRAFTKINGS, $9500 FANDUEL
Patrick Mahomes is coming off monster game versus the Texans and is the clear top choice at Quarterback on this slate. He will be high owned but with a two-game slate it’s all about securing the top scorer here. Mahomes is averaging 23 points per game on the season and should be in for 25+ points in a home matchup versus the Titans. The Titans rank 28th vs opposing quarterbacks and without much of a run game, we should see most of the scoring through the air for the Chiefs. My lean on this slate is to target the Chiefs vs Titans game as much as possible as I think there will be 14-21 more points scored in this one.
RYAN TANNEHILL- $5500 DRAFTKINGS, $7700 FANDUEL
Tannehill and the Titans will have to pass to stay in this game. The man has been shockingly great since he has taken over the starting role. These Titans have been everyone’s bandwagon team after their glorious run to make the playoffs and shocking back to back upsets they have pulled off. I personally think they cover the spread and make this game interesting. Tannehill is averaging 19 points per game and has a nice matchup versus the Chiefs who rank 23rd vs opposing quarterbacks. For every 2 lineups I make with Mahomes I will own 1 share of Tannehill.
RUNNING BACKS
DERRICK HENRY- $8700 DRAFTKINGS, $9800 FANDUEL
Henry just can’t be stopped. The opposing defenses he has been facing know he is getting the ball and they can’t do anything about it. When he gets stopped at the line he finds a way to fall forward for 3-4 yards. Then he has the speed to break monster runs and the strength to stiff-arm opponents on his way to the end zone. This offense is running through the big man and he should be locked in all of your lineups. He is averaging 22 points per game and has been in the 30’s in most of his recent games. The Chiefs rank 24th vs opposing running backs and this is an obvious spot to lock Henry unless you can predict injuries or want to fade him on purely an ownership perspective. I would fade Henry in 1 of every 8 lineups I make just to be different from the field.
DAMIEN WILLIAMS- $7000 DRAFTKINGS, $7600 FANDUEL
Williams has secured his role as the every-down back for the Chiefs. He got all the goal-line work last week and is coming off a 3 touchdown game. Like I stated above I will be targeting most of my pieces from this game and want to secure the points through the ground and air from the Chiefs side. Williams is averaging 14 points per game and should provide a safe floor this weekend. The Titans rank 18th vs opposing running backs and I will be happy with a touchdown and combined 85 yards out of Williams as my RB2.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DEEBO SAMUEL- $5500 DRAFTKINGS, $6300 FANDUEL
I preached to pay up at quarterback and running back so I need to find us some value at the receiver position. I’m looking for upside and low ownership and Deebo provides that. The man is involved in the run game and is one of the most targeted 49er when they decide to pass the ball. This game should be higher scoring than last week’s affair with the Vikings so I predict Samuel to have a better game this week. He is averaging 12 points per game on the season and has a nice matchup against the Packers who rank 16th vs opposing wide receivers.
SAMMY WATKINS- $4600 DRAFTKINGS, $5200 FANDUEL
You know it’s a short slate and I’m digging for value when I mention the name Sammy Watkins. But we need value and upside, and Watkins provides that on this slate. He is the number 2 receiver on this Chiefs team and he can provide a long touchdown at any time. This is not a safe play by any means but on a two-game slate I will take Watkins who is averaging 10 points per game on the season. The Titans rank 18th vs opposing wide receivers so let’s hope Watkins takes advantage of that and secures a long touchdown on Sunday.
TIGHT ENDS
TRAVIS KELCE- $7100 DRAFTKINGS, $7800 FANDUEL
If I can afford it I plan to pay up for safety at the tight end position on this slate and lock up my 15+ points and hope the upside comes. For the same reasons I like Mahomes above, Kelce makes for a great stack. The Titans have trouble defending the pass and specifically covering the tight end where they rank 25th against the position. On a two-game slate its slim pickings at tight end, so play it safe and get cute elsewhere.
JONNU SMITH- $3400 DRAFTKINGS, $5600 FANDUEL
We need value on this slate and as long as Kelce doesn’t have a repeat performance Jonnu Smith should be a safe play at his price. He made a remarkable catch versus the Ravens last week and gets a dream matchup this week. Even if I pay up for Kelce at tight end I don’t mind playing Smith in my flex position for a great value. The Chiefs are towards the bottom of the league defending the tight end and rank 28th so lock in Smith for one of the best point per dollar option on the slate.
DEFENSES
49ERS- $3200 DRAFTKINGS, $4600 FANDUEL
The 49ers defense looked unstoppable last game versus the Vikings. The held the Vikings to 7 first downs the entire game, 0 first downs via the rush, and held them to 0 first downs over a 27-minute span of the game. Keep it simple and play the 49ers at home. I know Aaron Rodgers is on the other side of the ball and he wants to stick it to the Niners for not drafting him but this defense is too good and Rodgers doesn’t have enough weapons beside him.
PACKERS- $2700 DRAFTKINGS, $4000 FANDUEL
The Packers are my value defense at almost minimum price on both sites. The Packers are my default value defense because I’m staying away from the Chiefs vs Titans game. Add the fact they are facing off against the unproven playoff arm of Jimmy G and we have some nice upside at the price so click the button and hope for the best. Jimmy will make a mistake or two and hopefully the Packers defense can do some damage.
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than seven years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
The Kansas City Chiefs overcame a 21-0 first quarter deficit to down the Houston Texans 51-31 in the AFC divisional Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs on eight straight scoring drives to overcome a 21-0 first quarter deficit and beat the Houston Texans 51-31 Sunday afternoon the AFC divisional at Arrowhead Stadium.
Mahomes completed 23-of-35 for 351 yards and five touchdowns, three of which were caught by tight end Travis Kelce as part of his 10 catches for 134 yards, a game-high.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 31-of-52 for 388 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught nine passes for 118 yards. Receiver Kenny Stills had three catches for 80 yards and a touchdown, and wideout Will Fuller caught five catches for 89 yards.
Summary
The Chiefs scored on eight straight possessions to overcome the Texans’ 21-0 first quarter lead and win the game 51-31.
Turning point
With 8:32 to go in the second quarter and the Texans leading 24-7, Houston ran a fake run out of punt formation to safety Justin Reid. Safety Daniel Sorensen tackled Reid for a gain on two on fourth-and-4 from the Texans’ 31-yard line.
Unique stat
Texans: For the first time in franchise history, they posted a 21-0 first quarter lead in their 298th franchise game.
Chiefs: Kansas City is the first team in NFL history to be down by 20-plus and win by 20-plus in a playoff game.
Scoring summary
Houston Texans — 21, 3, 7, 0 — 19
Kansas City Chiefs — 0, 28, 13, 10, — 51
injury report
Texans
Hopkins played through a rib injury.
RT Chris Clark injured his lower leg, but returned to the game.
Chiefs:
Kelce dealt with a hamstring injury, but did not leave the game.
Up Next
The Texans season ends with an 11-7 record and their sixth AFC South title in club history.
The Chiefs will host the Tennessee Titans at 2:05 p.m. CT on Jan. 19 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Bill O’Brien thought he was making a simple decision. The resulting carnage may have him thinking twice.
Up 21-0 against the Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs due to a weird conflagration of events and looking at a fourth-and-1 from the Kansas City 13-yard line, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien elected to take the points as opposed to risking giving the ball back to Patrick Mahomes. So, kicker John Christian Ka’iminoeauloameka’ikeokekumupa’a Fairbairn (Ka’imi to his friends) booted a 31-yard field goal, and Houston had a 24-0 lead with 10:58 left in the first half.
But there was a slow, yawning chasm of concern over this decision — instead of forcing the Chiefs to take over at their own 13-yard line in a worst-case scenario, Houston kicked off to receiver Mecole Hardman, who promptly returned the ball 58 yards to the Houston 42-yard line. Mahomes then hit tight end Travis Kelce for 25 yards, and then hit running back Damien Williams for a 17-yard score.
The Texans went three-and-out after that, punted the ball back to Kansas City, and it took Mahomes just three plays (and a 28-yard pass interference call on Houston cornerback Lonnie Johnson) to score another touchdown, on this five-yard pass to Travis Kelce.
Texans receiver DeAndre Carter fumbled the subsequent kickoff, and that fumble was recovered by Chiefs rookie running back Darwin Thompson, and returned to the Houston six-yard line. Didn’t take long from there for Mahomes to hit Kelce again.
And with that, Mahomes became the second quarterback in postseason history to throw four touchdown passes in any quarter, matching Doug Williams of the Redskins in Super Bowl XXII.
We’ll never know what would have happened had O’Brien gone for it, but the avalanche of points that resulted from that one decision would lead one to assume it may not have been the right decision. Let’s just say that those who have covered pro football in Houston for decades are unimpressed with O’Brien’s strategic acumen.
Bill O'Brien's decision to call a fake punt on fourth and 4 at his 31 with a 24-7 lead midway through the second quarter will go down as one of the worst in playoff history if the Texans blow this game as they're trying so hard to do.
