Tag: Tony Pollard

Week 16 EPA Power Rankings: Rumors of Cowboys demise greatly exaggerated

Dallas proves they are everything the advanced stats say they are with big win in LA

The Cowboys finally displayed the full power of an offense that the advanced stats have been saying exists all season.  It was a truly dominating win, and the first one against a team over .500 all season.  We knew this team was capable of trouncing the Dolphins and the Giants, but now they’ve proved that they really could be better than their record suggests.

In this week’s EPA power rankings, the Cowboys climb right back into the top five, a spot they lost only last week to the very same Rams team that just got doubled up by Dallas in Week 15.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

The below rankings represent team EPA differential (offense EPA minus defense EPA) adjusted for opponent strength.

The 44-point outing from the Cowboys cemented their spot as the second-best offense in the NFL, trailing only Baltimore in that category.  This was really the first week they put it all together since that great stretch over the first three weeks of the season.  There’s arguments to be made that this offensive explosion was due to the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, both of whom surpassed 100 rushing yards in the game.  There are also arguments to be made that an incredibly efficient day from Dak Prescott (9.2 YPA, 2TD) was the biggest contributor.  All that really matters is that both were on fire on Sunday against a really good Rams defense.

Pollard and Elliott ranked first and fourth, respectively, in EPA/carry in Week 15.  Prescott had the eight best EPA/dropback.  This offense was humming and proving to be a worthy playoff contender regardless of their record.

Outside of this game, there wasn’t a ton of movement within our ranks this week.  The Falcons made the biggest leap, going up five spots after taking down the vaunted San Francisco 49ers as time expired.

The most interesting team on here this week might be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Bucs won’t make the playoffs, and yet they sit just outside the top ten in adjusted EPA differential, right above the teams in contention for the AFC South.

The fact that Tampa has maintained a slightly above average passing offense by EPA/play is frankly astounding considering the fact that Jameis Winston leads the league with 24 interceptions and five pick-sixes.  Pair that with the best run defense this season and a top five pass defense since Week 10 (I know, I was shocked too) and you’ve got a recipe for a team on the verge of a turnaround.  Bruce Arians has still got it.

Here’s a visual of team passing defense since Week 10, where you can see Tampa Bay ever so slightly edging out the New England Patriots in passing EPA.

Philadelphia didn’t move up or down at all this week, but they did lose their title of Most Average 2019 NFL Team (closest to 0 EPA differential) to the Indianapolis Colts.  While watching the Colts get stomped by the Saints on Monday Night Football, I couldn’t help but wonder where this average team would be with Andrew Luck at the helm.  We’ve been robbed of an epic Andrew Luck vs. Ryan Tannehill clash of the titans (no pun intended) for the AFC South this year and it’s a real shame.

Dallas gets a chance to prove their success against the Rams was a turning point of the season this Sunday when they can finally clinch a division title, a home playoff game, and a chance at a fourth straight season with at least nine wins.  This will be their chance to become the Team That Nobody Wants To See In The Playoffs™ of 2019.

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Heroes and Goats: Cowboys regain super powers in Week 15 domination of Rams

The Dallas Cowboys had some of their best performances of the season and dominated the Los Angeles Rams 44-21.

The Dallas Cowboys played their most complete game of the season, dominating the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 in Week 15. The game unfolded as many expected, a one-sided affair in the battle of good against Evil, only it was the Cowboys doing the butt whipping and running all over and around the Rams.

It was a narrative Cowboys fans have been breathlessly waiting weeks to see as the team executed in all three phases of the game, emerging out of the phone booth they shoved themselves into with super powers on full display. Dallas needed to get back on the winning track after three lackluster weeks sapped almost any belief this team had any ability to be special.

Here are some of the heroes and goats for the Cowboys in an outstanding win.

Heroes

Ezekiel Elliott: Running like a man possessed, Elliott was breaking tackles and exploding through holes for 117 yards and two scores. Those numbers were compiled in basically just three quarters or it could’ve been a monster day for Elliott. Still, he led the team in expected points, a rare feat for a bell-cow back. It feels as though Elliott is getting better and better as the season wears on.

Tony Pollard: The rookie RB had himself a day as well. Pollard played well when he was spelling Elliott in the first half and excelled when he was given the full load from late in the third quarter on. Rushing for a game-high 131 yards, it was Pollard’s second 100-yard game of the season and on his 44-yard touchdown run, the rookie showed great balance and acceleration.

The offensive line: The unit paved the way to a season-high 263 rushing yards and allowed two runners to eclipse 100 yards for the second time this season. They also didn’t allow a sack and kept QB Dak Prescott upright all game long.

The wily veterans: It’s been a popular opinion to bash some of the veterans on the Cowboys, but Jason Witten and Sean Lee both produced with stellar performances. Witten had a spectacular one-handed touchdown catch and caught three more balls for 36 yards. Most of Witten’s damage was done in the first half, before sitting most of the last 30 minutes out with the game in hand.

Lee didn’t practice all week, but his preparation in the film room definitely paid off. The savvy LB had an interception to set-up a touchdown that broke the will of the Rams near the end of the first half. Lee also added a sack, making it the first time in career that he’d had an interception and a sack in the same game. It was a vintage performance from the General.

Kai Forbath: It wasn’t the best start for the new Cowboys kicker, but Forbath did what the team needs, he made the kicks he’s supposed to make to put points on the scoreboard. Forbath made all of his extra points, nailed all three of his field goals, including a 50-yard kick and those pesky 40-something yard kicks that Brett Maher used to miss with regularity.

Goats

DeMarcus Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Walt Anderson: About the only thing that went wrong was the coin toss, which produced mass confusion. Prescott was convinced by Lawrence (who admitted it was his idea after the game) to defer when the Cowboys won the toss. Only Prescott slipped up that preference by saying Dallas wanted to kick, before remembering to say “defer.”

Referee Anderson bungled the whole exchange with Prescott and never acknowledged the Cowboys’ request to defer.

It was a strange beginning to the game and thank goodness the controversy ended when the league stepped in with the proper call. It was the only negative for the Cowboys in a game they embarrassed the Rams.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi.

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5 To Watch: Jerry Jones and 4 on-field Cowboys to keep an eye on vs Rams

The game is on the field, but the focus will turn to Jerry Jones in short order if these other 4 names aren’t contributing to the win.

The Dallas Cowboys have been off of playing football for 10 days, and on the heels of a third-consecutive loss, the outlook for the season couldn’t be further away from where it was to begin things in early September. There is little hope emanating from the fan base, and what is originating from within the organization seems faked and a facade as the club is biding their time before cleaning house on the coaching staff.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones determined a few weeks back that changing coaching staffs midseason was not going to be the best chance to salvage things. Now, what he says publicly to help boost merchandise sales and reap the benefits of free advertising from every sound bite, and what he believes internally can be two totally separate things.

Jones continues to allow questions about his pending head coaching search to fan the flames around the vacancy, despite refusing to put head coach Jason Garrett out of his misery. With no remorse, Jones implores that there’s no one he wants more to succeed than Garrett while simultaneously pouring gasoline on the conversation about who will replace him whenever the Cowboys season ends. He simultaneously says the words that he knows the failures of the franchise reside on his doorstep while definately refusing to admit that his brand of management – which serves him so well in business – preclude the on-field product from finding continued success.

If the Cowboys cannot emerge from their stupor on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, Jones will face another media scrum post-game, another round of radio interviews starting Tuesday and will emerge unscathed yet again, because that’s how this Jerry-go-round works.

While all eyes will be focused on Jones during those Fox cutaways during the action, there will be some lesser-known names on the field worth paying attention to. If Dallas has any hope of pulling off an upset against the team which they squared up against in last year’s playoffs, here’s some unfamiliar names who may end up starring.

Kai Forbath, kicker

The long nightmare is over, and about six months too late the Dallas Cowboys have finally walked away from the kicking disaster known as Brett Maher.  After missing seven kicks in 2018, the Cowboys stuck with him despite missing 10 kicks through 13 games, the most in the last four years across the league.

Finally they brought in another option in Forbath, a journeyman who has played in just one game this season. He does have a 88% accuracy mark on field goals over the last several years, though his extra points have been shaky, including a miss that got him released in New England after just one game earlier this year.

The move is more so symbolic. It exemplified the coaching staff’s refusal to try something different, to believe that their original plan is always the best plan and failing to try something new despite all the evidence what they have done is not working. Whether Forbath is the answer or not isn’t really that important now. The damage of sticking to their guns has already infiltrated the aura of the team.

Luke Gifford, linebacker

It seems like Sean Lee is going to give it a go despite missing all week with pectoral and thigh issues, but fans shouldn’t be surprised if this rookie linebacker gets a handful of defensive snaps in the game.

Dallas needs a spark, as their backer play has been mediocre all year after being touted as a strength of the defense. Leighton Vander Esch is out, Jaylon Smith is not playing up to par and Lee looks his age. Joe Thomas will be the third linebacker, but the UDFA out of Nebraska was very impressive in training camp and preseason and should get a chance to show what he can do.

Tony Pollard, running back

Pollard was missed in the game against Chicago as his injury and ailments to both backs on the practice squad left the rarely utilized Jamize Olawale in the position to be featured and he came up wanting.

Ezekiel Elliott’s handcuff should see a ton of action against the Rams as the Cowboys offense looks to emerge from their doldrums that have infected their possessions over the last couple weeks. Pollard is a weapon in his shiftiness and tackle-breaking ability with excellent balance and needs to be part of both the passing and running game for the Cowboys.

Blake Jarwin, tight end

Free Blake Jarwin.

No, he hasn’t been wrongfully arrested by the law, but the powers-that-be are certainly handcuffing the superior passing-game weapon in Dallas. Jason Witten has had a remarkable career, he’s still the best blocking tight end on the team, but the insistence to allow him to be the primary focus down the seams is maddening.

Jarwin can actually produce yards after the catch and still has on-purpose big-play ability that Witten hasn’t sniffed in half a decade.

The coaching staff’s inability to devise more plays that feature him tells the tale of their season.

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Lee’s potential absence from Cowboys-Rams undercuts return for 2 others

Tony Pollard, Jeff Heath returns to practice while Sean Lee misses practice for the second consecutive day.

The Dallas Cowboys have just three games remaining in their 2019 campaign, and with a chance to make the playoffs contingent on winning the NFC East, all hands must be on deck if they are able.

The outcome of Sunday’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams affects their playoff changes by about 20 percent, per ESPN FPI.   There is no time to wait, yet Dallas is looking like their linebackers corps may be even more depleted than first thought.

Sean Lee who is filling in for injured starter Leighton Vander Esch still has not participated in practice this week as he deals with a pectoral issue, so it remains to be seen if he will play against the Rams.   Vander Esch is definitely out for this game, and it’s a question whether he suits up again this season.

If Lee is unable to suit up, rookie linebacker Luke Gifford will be called into major action for the first time this season as the third in the rotation behind Jaylon Smith and Joe Thomas.

The Cowboys had six other players who were limited participants on Thursday:

  • DL Michael Bennett (foot)
  • RG La’el Collins (knee)
  • CB Byron Jones (hip)
  • P Chris Jones (adbomen)
  • DT Antwaun Woods (knee)

There were however two welcome changes to the injury front as safety Jeff Heath and backup running back Tony Pollard were upgraded to full participants in Thursday’s practice.

Heath has been dealing with a shoulder injury that he suffered against the Patriots back in Week 12 and Pollard suffered an ankle injury and did not play against the Bears.

The Rams are relatively healthy compared to the Cowboys, with only starting tight end Gerald Everett not participating as he deals with a knee issue. Relatively is the key word, as the offensive line has dealt with a major reshuffling this season already.

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News: Cowboys coaching candidates continue to emerge, Elliott says wins over stats

Cowboys Nation is still breaking down the Bears game and exploring possible coaching hires, while a franchise icon talks about being GM.

The long break between games has given Cowboys players extra time to get healthy, Cowboys fans additional time to dwell on the crushing defeat in Chicago, and the Cowboys rumor mill bonus time to swirl with possibilities and speculation.

Time to get caught up on who’s ready to play, who’s looking for wins over yards, and who’s looking like a problem when the tape comes on. There are names to mull over in the coaching carousel- including one that hasn’t gotten much publicity yet- and a familiar name who may have a GM job on his mind. Here’s the latest News and Notes.

Vander Esch not close to return; several others should vs. Rams :: Cowboys Wire

The Cowboys look to be nearing full strength coming off their mini-bye and heading into Week 15’s game. Wednesday’s injury report showed running back Tony Pollard, defensive tackle Antwaun Woods, and safety Jeff Heath all back at practice.

Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, though, did not practice due to his lingering neck issue. The second-year star is unlikely to play this weekend, and the coaching staff states it could be “a little time” before he is ready to return.

–TB

Individual milestones don’t mean much to Elliott :: The Mothership

The league’s defending rushing champ is having a down year by his standards. But that’s not what’s bothering Ezekiel Elliott these days. Despite topping 1,000 yards for the third time in four seasons as a pro, the number that Elliott cares about is the one in the team’s win column.

“Who cares if you rush for 2,000 and don’t even make the playoffs?” Elliott asked on Wednesday.

The two-time Pro Bowler is on track to see the second-lowest rushing attempt of his career, thanks in large part to the addition of a capable change-of-pace backup in Tony Pollard. But Elliott doesn’t mind the lightened workload so long as it helps the team.

“Whatever is in the game plan, whatever the team needs me to do to win, I’m going to go out there and do,” Elliott said. “They know I’m always ready to get as many touches as they need me to get.”

–TB

Film room: Inside Cowboys CB Chidobe Awuzie’s struggles, and how they affect the secondary’s future :: Dallas News

Chidobe Awuzie was supposed to be the future for the Cowboys at cornerback. Not only has the third-year Colorado product failed to live up to those lofty expectations, he seems to be regressing. His biggest issue? Inconsistency.

Awuzie is capable of being very good, but according to John Owning, his technique has failed him throughout the season, often leading to big plays the other way. To the casual observer, Awuzie’s issue is refusing to look for the ball when it’s in the air. The true problem, though, runs much deeper than that. He remains a player with untapped potential, but his drop in performance in 2019 may bring salary cap ramifications moving forward.

–TT

The Richard Report: Cowboys’ defensive effort shows ominous signs of surrender in Chicago :: The Athletic

If the Dallas defense seemed particularly bad at tackling during their Week 14 loss at Soldier Field, that’s because they were.

Want a sobering perspective on 19 missed tackles in one night? New England’s defense has missed 56 tackles all season long.

For fans who have the stomach to sit through the Chicago nightmare again, Bob Sturm brings the film study, including Xavier Woods and Jaylon Smith putting forth abysmal effort on perhaps the game’s biggest play.

–TB

Why did the Cowboys bother re-signing FB Jamize Olawale? :: Inside the Star

An awful miss while open on a crucial red zone pass play against Chicago in Week 14 is the strongest impression many fans have right now of Cowboys fullback Jamize Olawale. The third-down incompletion from Dak Prescott was just the second time the eight-year veteran had been targeted all season. He has logged zero rushing attempts and has been on the field for only 11% of Dallas’s offensive snaps in 2019.

Olawale “has some proven receiving and rushing talent from his days in Oakland,” points out Jess Haynie, “yet the Cowboys have been unwilling or unable to find a way to use him more on offense.” For all of that, the North Texas alum currently earns $1.8 million per season and is the fourth-highest-paid fullback in the league.

Fullback is a tricky position to quantify in today’s NFL, but on the surface, Olawale’s seems to be a textbook case of getting way too little bang for way too many bucks.

–TB

Cowboys legend Troy Aikman wants to be a GM, though doesn’t see it under Jerry Jones :: Cowboys Wire

The Hall of Fame quarterback has expressed interest in possibly returning to the league someday as a general manager. But the Cowboys icon doesn’t expect it to ever be with his former team… at least under its current ownership.

Speaking with Dallas radio station 1310 The Ticket, Aikman shot down the notion of taking a front office role under Jerry Jones, describing his ex-boss as “real stubborn and steadfast in that he’s the one in charge.”

With Jones as both owner and GM, the team famously has not advanced beyond the NFC divisional round since Aikman himself was taking the snaps in the 1995 postseason. Aikman is now the A-team color analyst for FOX Sports and in recent years has been a vocal critic of the longstanding power structure in Dallas.

“I think in a lot of ways,” the three-time Super Bowl winner continued, “until that changes, this team’s going to have some problems.”

–TB

Week 15 head coach replacement rankings: 35 potential names for Cowboys :: Cowboys Wire

While a Super Bowl appearance is still possible and would change everything for the Cowboys, a divorce in Dallas seems more likely than ever. K.D. Drummond plays matchmaker and swipes through 35 possible candidates to replace Jason Garrett if the Red Ball regime does, in fact, come to an end after this season.

From promising young up-and-comers (49ers special teams coach and assistant Richard Hightower) to former players climbing the ladder (Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich), and seasoned veterans (former Carolina/Denver/Chicago coach John Fox) to collegiate legends (national championship winner Bob Stoops), every option is explored and graded.

And yes, the list also includes a few current Cowboys employees, many of the usual suspects for any coaching vacancy, and He Who Shall Not Be Named (but whose name rhymes with Furban Squier).

–TB

Dan Mullen: If NFL calls, I’d probably consider it :: 247Sports

But wait, there’s more! Add another name to the list of potential candidates. Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen went on record this week as saying he would “probably consider” an opportunity presented to him by an NFL team. That quote made its way to The Rich Eisen Show courtesy of FOX reporter Bruce Feldman, who in turn was citing a report from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah; he had mentioned Dallas as a possible suitor for Mullen’s services should Cowboys owner Jerry Jones part ways with current coach Jason Garrett.

If Mullen’s name rings a bell with Cowboys Nation, it may be because he was instrumental in helping to develop a young Dak Prescott while roaming the sidelines at Mississippi State.

For what it’s worth, Mullen is also a protege of former Ohio State and Florida head coach Urban Meyer, the name most closely associated with any rumored coaching change in Dallas.

–TB

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Week 14 Inactives: Cowboys rookie RB Tony Pollard out vs Bears

Tony Pollard added to Cowboys’ inactive list along with Jeff Heath, Antwaun Woods, and Leighton Vander Esch against Chicago Bears.

Three familiar names are one the inactive list as Jeff Health, Leighton Vander Esch, and Antwaun Woods will all miss tonight’s game against the Chicago Bears, as the Cowboys try to climb above .500 heading into the final stretch of the season.

One surprise was also added to the inactive list and will not play tonight in rookie Tony Pollard.

Pollard showed up on Tuesday’s injury report with an ankle injury.  Look for Ezekiel Elliott to assume the full workload in Pollard’s absence. Jamize Olawale will be the only other full-time back expected to take handoffs.

Health continues to nurse a shoulder injury he suffered against the Patriots while Woods is still dealing with an MCL injury.  It also remains to be seen whether Woods will face any disciplinary actions due to his arrest early Thursday morning.  Vander Esch hasn’t played since suffering a neck injury in the team’s Week 11 win over the Detroit Lions.

Chris Covington will fill in for Antwaun Woods while Sean Lee will be manning the weakside for Vander Esch.  Filling in for Heath will be Darian Thompson who is making his second consecutive start at strong safety.

All three defensive starters will miss their second straight game.

On the Bears side, they will be without Prince Amukamara as he continues to deal with a hamstring issue.

Beasley’s Revenge: Former Cowboys WR stars in biggest impact plays of Week 13

A look at the Cowboys’ 26-15 loss at home against the Bills, through the lens of EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys 26-15 loss against the Buffalo Bills was not the worst Thanksgiving defeat in NFL history. That belongs to the Detroit Lions, who lost 47-10 against the Tennessee Titans in 2008. However, the Cowboys’ loss on Thursday seems surreal for a team that seemingly has all the tools be one of the best in the league. The Bills played a sound football game but they benefited from some careless turnovers from the Cowboys. On top of that, head coach Jason Garrett’s unwavering trust in kicker Brett Maher has continued to hurt the team.

It was a stunning loss for the Cowboys. After a score on their opening drive their offense was non-existent. On defense they had no answers for the dynamic duo of quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Cole Beasley. When looking at the biggest plays in the game, this couldn’t be more apparent.

Here is a look using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.1                DAL WP Shift: 64% -> 71%

The game started out well for the Cowboys. On their opening possession they drove the ball downfield picking up 62 scrimmage yards and an additional 13 yards on penalties. The drive elapsed nine plays, but the team managed to pick up six first downs. The end result was a touchdown from quarterback Dak Prescott to Jason Witten on a well executed play-action pass.

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The score gave the Cowboys the early lead at 7-0, but it would be the last time they scored while the game remained competitive. Things only got worse from here.

No. 2 Josh Allen pass deep right to Cole Beasley for 29 yards

EPA: 4.2                DAL WP Shift: 81% -> 69%

After a successful special teams play from the Cowboys, the Bills were pinned back in their own territory with abysmal field position. They began the drive at their own 2-yard line. In spite of the circumstances, the Bills made the most of the situation. Their biggest play of the drive came on an improbable pass from Allen to Beasley.

Allen was able to generate one of the biggest plays of the game thanks to some allusive movement in the pocket to avoid DeMarcus Lawrence off the edge. He delivered an accurate pass to Beasley and the play garnered 29 yards in total.

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The Bills were ultimately forced into punting the ball on the drive, but the play was a sign of things to come.

No. 3 Allen pass short right to Beasley for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9                DAL WP Shift: 60% -> 53%

The Bills found the end zone on their third possession. They orchestrated their biggest drive of the game, gaining 85 yards and five first downs on nine plays. The drive was capped with a 25-yard touchdown from Allen to Beasley. It was a seamless play for the Bills as Beasley found the void in the Cowboys’ soft zone defense with relative ease.

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No. 4 Prescott pass short left intended for Tony Pollard, INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.9              DAL WP Shift: 55% -> 40%

Beginning their fourth drive of the game, the Cowboys’ WP odds stood at 53%. The game was tied late in the second quarter and both teams managed to avoid some costly mistakes to this point. However, it was the Cowboys that would commit the first turnover of the game. The play was a designed screen pass with Pollard being the intended target.

The pass might have reached Pollard, but Prescott was backpedaling and got hit by linebacker Matt Milano at the time of his release.  Following the interception, the Cowboys’ WP was 40%.

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No. 5 Prescott sacked for a 9-yard loss, FUMBLE

EPA: -5.2              DAL WP Shift: 58% -> 43%

After turning the ball over the Cowboys’ defense was able to absorb the blow. They held the Bills to minus-3 yards on the ensuing drive. The Bills settled for a 50-yard field goal attempt from kicker Steven Hauschka, but it was no good.

The Cowboys could breathe easy knowing their costly turnover didn’t result in any points scored. Unfortunately, the relief was short lived. Their next drive only lasted three plays and ended with a forced fumble from rookie defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Prescott appeared to be locked in with Michael Gallup running an in breaking route on the right, but the play was slow to develop.

No. 6 John Brown pass deep right to Devin Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7                DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 26%

The forced turnover from Prescott was the biggest play of the game for the Bills. They were gifted with possession at the Cowboys’ 39-yard line. Later in the drive they flexed their creativity on a play that would give them a 14-7 lead. The Bills reached into their bag of tricks with a double reverse pass play with wide receiver John Brown throwing to a wide open Singletary along the sideline.

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After the score, the Cowboys’ WP dropped to 26%. From this point on, the Cowboys failed to get a hold on the game. The Bills never relented their lead and despite their defense giving up a touchdown late in the game, it was never really a close contest.

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News: Vander Esch ‘week-to-week’, Gallup ‘No.1 receiver’, Belichick calls Dak ‘super impressive’

Previewing Sunday’s showdown between Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, outsmarting Bill Belichick, and cashing in on Dak’s pregame dance moves.

So much to discuss as Sunday’s showdown draws ever nearer. The Cowboys look like they’ll be dealing with a surprise scratch in the middle of the defense, while there’s plenty of talk about the two quarterbacks this game will feature. Everyone is trying to predict what Patriots coach Bill Belichick will or won’t do, and what the Cowboys should or shouldn’t do in this one… all while one of the player units in Dallas suggests it’s all just business as usual.

All of that, plus an early look ahead at running back contracts and unrestricted free agents for 2020, breakdowns of both the Dallas offense and defense, and the perfect holiday gift for the Cowboys fan who’s still trying to learn “How to Dak.” That’s ahead in this edition of News and Notes.

Sources: Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck) out vs. Patriots :: ESPN

Updating Thursday night’s big news, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch is expected to miss Sunday’s matchup with New England.

“Vander Esch’s injury flared up in practice, which led to an MRI. He will have another MRI in three weeks, according to a source,” reports ESPN’s Todd Archer. Also citing sources, Archer says the second-year star is now considered “week-to-week.”

Longtime veteran Sean Lee will take over for Vander Esch as the team’s weakside linebacker. Joe Thomas is slated to move into Lee’s spot on the strong side, but he has missed two practices this week with an illness.

–TB

Brady vs. Prescott: A one-sided battle is on tap in Cowboys-Pats :: Cowboys Wire

Metrics nerds, get your popcorn ready. Travis Somers presents all kinds of graph goodness in this look at the two quarterbacks who will lead their teams against one another at Foxboro Stadium on Sunday.

Come for the visual eye candy of data plotted out on an X/Y grid and all the pretty colors; stay for the eye-opening conclusion about how the Cowboys’ young star actually compares to the most decorated passer in league history.

–TB

Belichick: Prescott is ‘Super Impressive’

Not much else to say here but watch the reverence  (second vid) the Patriots head coach has for the Cowboys QB ahead of Sunday’s matchup.

— KD

Tom Brady: I’ve disliked the Dallas Cowboys since birth :: Boston Herald

As a San Francisco kid who grew up during the 49ers’ dynasty of the 1980s and saw Dwight Clark make “The Catch” in person as a four-year-old, Tom Brady was perhaps genetically hardwired to hate America’s Team.

“I’ve really not liked the Cowboys since coming out of the womb,” the Patriots quarterback said this week.

“They’ve actually had a great, winning organization, and have got a lot of great players in their history,” Brady said. “Guys that I, just as a Niner fan, you know — you play the Cowboys and every time they’d hand it to Emmitt Smith, it’d be a 5-yard gain. And you’d pull your hair out.”

Brady is 4-0 in his playing career against Dallas.

–TB

Cowboys not changing mentality for defending champ Patriots :: The Mothership

For all the hype and hoopla surrounding Sunday’s showdown with the New England Patriots, the guys in the trenches say they’re approaching this week’s game like any other.

On the Miller Lite Cowboys Hour, offensive linemates Zack Martin and Travis Frederick dispelled any notion that they’re changing their mentality for Week 12 simply because they’ll be squaring off against the defending Super Bowl champions.

–TB

Examining what the Cowboys are up against in Bill Belichick’s singular coaching mind :: The Athletic

“Take away what they do best,” they say. Well, no one’s better at it than New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who has been making winning look easy for going on two decades. The Cowboys offense will present a unique challenge in Foxborough, but here’s a look at what has made things in New England so different for so long.

–TT

Should the Cowboys focus on blitzing Tom Brady? :: Blogging the Boys

The Patriots do just about everything well, but if there’s a weakness to be found, it may in Tom Brady’s performance when under duress.

Connor Livesay writes: “Heading into last week’s matchup against the Eagles, Tom Brady ranked 28th in yards per attempt (4.0), 27th in passer rating (47.9), a 4:3 TD:INT ratio, and is only completing 34% of his passes when under pressure.”

Harassing Brady will be of critical importance, but only if the Cowboys can do it without sending too many blitzers. That’s because one of Brady’s strengths is utilizing screen passes to backs James White, Rex Burkhead, and Sony Michel… and unfortunately, stopping the screen attack hasn’t been something the Dallas defense has excelled at in 2019.

–TB

Classic matchup: Dallas Cowboys’ ‘America’s Team’ vs. New England’s ‘We are all Patriots’ :: ESPN

A comparison between two of the best runs in NFL history, the Dallas team that garnered the “America’s Team” moniker and the Bill Belichick version of the New England Patriots. There’s a trip down memory lane, an NFL record that’s on the brink, and a look at the animosity that the two teams’ success has wrought over the years.

–TT

Amari Cooper confident in WR depth vs. Pats :: The Mothership

Given the Patriots knack for shutting down the thing that’s working best for their opponent, it’s fair to say that keeping wideout Amari Cooper in check will be a priority for the New England secondary. That unit “has been outstanding, ” team staff writer David Helman notes, “anchored by strong play from Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty, and nabbing 19 interceptions on the year.”

Cooper himself, though, thinks that strategy is a double-edged sword. “We have a lot of guys that can make plays, so if they try to take me away and just focus on me, I don’t think that’d be the wisest approach,” he said. “You saw what Gallup and Cobb did last week, going for over 100 yards. If they do try to take me away, we have other guys that can make plays.”

–TB

2 under-the-radar keys to Cowboys finding weakness in Belichick’s defense :: Cowboys Wire

Joey Ickes breaks down a favorite New England technique for negating an opponent’s primary receiver and offers a pair of strategies that Kellen Moore could use in response.

The entire article is worth the read, but one of those tactics has been screamed at the TV by every Cowboys fan out there at some point this season: let Dak Prescott use his running ability.

The second ploy involves a few names that the casual fan- and hopefully the Patriots- might not expect. And a former New England assistant confirms that this particular plan of attack hits one of Belichick’s personal bugaboos.

–TB

All the NFL running backs who could get paid in 2020, and why recent deals look like disasters :: ESPN

Ezekiel Elliott’s is among the running backs’ deals examined in this piece by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, and the results aren’t pretty. Elliott is very good, but he hasn’t recaptured that dynamic play that he flashed throughout his rookie season when he took the league by storm. This year, the new rookie in town, Tony Pollard, has made the Cowboys more efficient when he spells Elliott. Caveat: sample size.

Elliott isn’t holding the Cowboys back by any means, but they have actually been slightly more efficient on offense with backup Tony Pollard on the field than him. Elliott has been on the field far more frequently, but the offense has generated 0.21 points of additional expected points per play with Pollard on the field and 0.17 points with Elliott in the lineup.

–TT

Decoding Kellen Moore: Explosive passes become routine as Cowboys offense transforms before our eyes :: The Athletic

A team’s record has the capacity to make the general NFL fan either overestimate or underestimate a team on that fact alone. This is certainly the case with the Dallas Cowboys, whose offense is as good as any in the league. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and quarterback Dak Prescott have their half of the team rolling in terms of explosive plays and third down conversion. That and more in Bob Sturm’s weekly breakdown of the offense.

–TT

The Richard Report: Cowboys defense allows Detroit a worrisome number of big plays :: The Athletic

It takes two to tango, and in Week 11 the defense failed to hold up their end of the bargain. As explosive as the offense has been, the defense let a backup quarterback match them in that regard. That kind of performance is the exact opposite of the “bend but don’t break” approach that’ s been preached for years in Dallas.

–TT

Top 50 pending NFL unrestricted free agents for 2020 :: The Athletic

The Cowboys dominate this list of upcoming free agents with five players listed on it. Two of them, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper, are guaranteed to continue their careers in Dallas, but the others on the list have futures that are up in the air, including one of the newest members of the team.

–TT

‘How to Dak’ shirts now available :: Cowboys Pro Shop

Nobody knows how to push their brand quite like Jerry Jones. First, it was the “Zeke Who?” shirts that poked fun at the owner’s perceived slight of Ezekiel Elliott during the star running back’s holdout. Then it was the fun the team had with the black cat who appeared during the Week 9 win over the Giants, even putting him on the stadium’s video screen during player intros the following week.

Now it’s Cowboys Nation’s ongoing love affair with quarterback Dak Prescott’s pregame warmup routine.

The 100% cotton tee is available in all sizes for both men and women, and features the above graphic on the back. On the front, the Cowboys star and Prescott’s jersey number appear above the left breast. The shirt sells for $24.99.

–TB

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Game balls, key stats, instant analysis of Cowboys 35-27 win over Lions

Dak Prescott’s ascension continued, as he led the Cowboys to their sixth win of the season while throwing for 444 passing yards.

Dallas fans invaded Detroit, and were able to witness their team hang on and claim and their sixth victory of the season. It ended up being a shootout between Dak Prescott and Jeff Driskell, in game that featured four lead changes and over 820 combined total yards of offense. Ultimately, the Cowboys were able to prevail, and remain on top of the NFC East.

It was over when . . .

. . . Ezekiel Elliott housed a well-timed screen pass against the blitz from 17-yards out, followed by an excellent Dak Dance TD celebration. Tony Pollard then rumbled into the end zone for the two-point conversion to put Dallas up by two touchdowns with under eight minutes left in the game, effectively sealing the win.

Game balls

QB Dak Prescott

His transformative season continued against the Lions, with Prescott completing 29 of 46 passes for 444 yards, his third game this season with over 400+ passing yards. He was responsible for most of the his team’s big plays, finding open receivers, shaking off defenders, and picking up first downs with his legs. This showing, perhaps more than any other this season, announced that the Cowboys are no longer a run-first, grind it out team led by Ezekiel Elliott, but one that can sling it with the best of them.

WR Michael Gallup

On the one-year anniversary since losing his brother, Michael Gallup had a career day. He set a new high in catches with nine, and led the team with 148 receiving yards. He was a monster, especially in the first half, and made maybe the catch of the season in the second quarter. The second-year receiver has made big strides in 2019, and seems to be developing into a really nice offensive weapon for Prescott.

RB Tony Pollard

It seemed like the Cowboys made an effort to get Pollard involved early, and it certainly paid off. The rookie scored the first receiving touchdown of his career, finding the end zone for the second time this season. He continues to electrify with the ball in his hands, showcasing elite balance and tackle-breaking abilities that the team should continue to utilize. All told, he caught four passes (including two newly unveiled pop passes) for 44 receiving yards, 12 rushing yards, 42 kick return yards.

Key Stat: 5

Robert Quinn and Michael Bennett, two recent imports to the defensive line, have each become immediate, big-time contributors to the Dallas defense. Five represents the combined QB hits they managed to lay on Jeff Driskell, to go along with their three combined sacks and six total tackles, half of which were for loss. The duo, plus DeMarcus Lawrence, were essentially the entire Cowboys pass rush, which held strong and helped ice the game at the end.

Quick Hits:

  • For the third time in 11 games, Dallas’s first offensive drive ended in a turnover. Elliott fumbled the ball away on the second play of the game, reminiscent of Prescott’s interception on the first play of the game in Week 9 vs New York. Early mistakes and playing from behind have been a constant theme this season, and this week was no different. Thankfully however, they were able to pull this one out.
  • Randall Cobb built on his breakout last week in a big way, again scoring a touchdown and going over 100 receiving yards (115 total). He’s now up to three scores on the season, and has recorded 221 receiving yards over his last two games.

  • Early on, it seemed like this week could’ve been the Bo Scarbrough revenge game. The 2018 Cowboys seventh round draft pick made his NFL debut against his former team, and promptly found the end zone on Detroit’s first drive. He managed to reel off some impressive runs, and was the perfect decoy on nicely executed read-option which allowed Driskell to walk into the end zone in the second quarter.
  • It’s hard to remember a time when the Cowboys return game looked more discombobulated. After the mind-numbing decision for forego a return at the end of the Vikings game, it seemed as if Dallas returners were trying too hard to press the action this week, costing the team valuable field position. Pollard took a kick four yards deep in his own end zone, reaching only the Cowboys’ 14. Tavon Austin returned two punts for two yards.
  • The Dallas special teams coverage didn’t fare much better, with Jamal Agnew getting loose for a 32-yard punt return, and a 29-yard kick return. The hidden yardage resulting from the game’s third phase can be extremely valuable, but the Cowboys haven’t gotten much help from their special teams unit this season. Or really since Dwyane Harris left town.
  • What does help special teams is being allowed to kickoff from the opponent’s 35-yard line. A couple ill-timed Detroit penalties essentially gave the Cowboys a free chance at an onside kick just before halftime.

  • Sitting at 6-4, it stings to think about what Dallas’s record could be right now, had they been able to take advantage some earlier opponents, and resisted the urge to shoot themselves in the foot. Still, they more than control their own destiny, and with this offense, can hang with any team in the league.Six games remain, and next up is a trip to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots.

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