Tom Brady prop bets – Syndication Server

The 5 best NFL player prop bets for Week 2

Five player prop bets that will take you to the pay window.

In Week 1 we had a good look at all 32 teams and what their squads look like – both their strengths and their weaknesses. In some instances, what we saw in Week 1 wasn’t representative of what we can expect over the course of the full season – teams like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.

For most teams, what we saw is what we can likely expect – good and bad – going forward, so with more information to go on, we can base decisions on a track record from this season and, in the case of divisional games with a lot of history, a head-to-head track record.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Divisional Round

Five of our favorite NFL Divisional Round prop bets.

Not sure I’ve ever seen a Divisional Round week where such a strong case can be made that each of the road teams has a legitimate chance to win. While history tells us the home team should win three of these games (if not all four), they’re going to be competitive – nothing could be worse than last week’s blowouts.

Here are five players we’re convinced have a great chance of sending you to the playoff pay window.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 21 at 7:40 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Oh, Henry!

The Tennessee Titans found a way to lock down the No. 1 seed in the AFC without their most potent weapon, RB Derrick Henry. Now he’s back, and there’s going to be a lot of pregame debate about whether he’s the Henry that was a legitimate MVP candidate or a running back being forced back too soon with a foot injury – an RB killer. By his standards, he has a low Over/Under (80.5 rushing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The fact the Titans activated him lends itself to giving Henry a heavy workload. He’s the centerpiece of the offense, and the team has been built around him for a reason. Take the Over (-114).

Runnin’ with the Devil

The San Francisco 49ers have a big job ahead of them traveling to Green Bay. Their QB has a thumb problem on his throwing hand. In cold weather, it hurts much worse. The 49ers are likely to lean on RB Elijah Mitchell … again. Over his last six games, he has more than 20 carries in all of them. His Over/Under for rushing attempts is less than that (18.5 carries at -118 Over, -110 Under). The only way he doesn’t make it seven in a row with 20-plus carries is if the Packers blow out the Niners early, or he gets injured during the game. Take the Over (-118).

Brady’s Bunch

The deeper the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go in the playoffs, the more the injury to Chris Godwin and the release of Antonio Brown are going to stand out. QB Tom Brady has had absurd Over/Under numbers all season, and this week is no exception (290.5 passing yards at -114 for both). Brady has more than proved what he is capable of in the postseason and many see a shootout type of game. While I don’t disagree with that, if the Los Angeles Rams defense can effectively limit Mike Evans, Brady will need to complete 30 passes to hit that number with dink-and-dunk passes. The Bucs may win, but it shouldn’t be through an aerial attack. Take the Under (-114).

Swinging for a Single

Just as many who are projecting the Rams-Buccaneers game to be a passing festival, the same is true in the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs matchup. In this case, I see that happening. Bills RB Devin Singletary is playing the best ball of his career of late, reflected in his Over/Under (15.5 rushing attempts at -105 Over, -123 Under). For a standard featured back, that’s not a lot, but for Singletary, that’s a pretty stiff number. If he struggles early, his carries will suffer. The Bills may just come out throwing and not look back. Zack Moss may get some looks. Too many factors are against it. Take the Under (-123).

Hail to the Chief

There are always two players for the Chiefs that get bettors expecting huge games – WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. The Bills linebackers are decent, but not great. Kelce is great. Hill is likely to garner double-coverage on most plays. Kelce will likely be locked up one-on-one more times than not. Who will Patrick Mahomes choose? The star in single coverage. He has a pretty big number for a tight end (69.5 receiving yards at -116 Over, -111 Under) for a reason. He’s going to top it. Take the Over (-116).

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NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 12

We’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars.

This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 26 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Tommy Boy

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).

Steeler’s Wheel

After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).

Movin’ On Up

Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).

The Adams Family

It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).

Just for Kicks

There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 2

These Week 2 player prop bets are money in the bank!

As we get into Week 2, there is a paranoia among the 16 teams with a 0-1 record. Drop to 0-2 and you have a hole you’re digging out of for a month or more.

The prop bets for this week are based on the belief that the number adjustments on prop bets is being made a little too hastily.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 17, at 10:50 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Ride the Ell Train

In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys decided they were going to play Tampa Bay’s game and throw 100 times between them. How did that work out? They lost. A week later, the Cowboys are an underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers – a far lesser team. By his standards, Ezekiel Elliott has a shockingly low rushing yardage Over/Under (60.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Dallas won’t come into this game assuming it has to get into a track meet. The Cowboys will take their time and pick their shots. If Elliott gets more than a dozen carries, he should hit this number. If he gets 20? He blows it out of the water. Take the Over.

It’s the Story of a Man Named Brady

In the opener against the Cowboys, Tom Brady threw 50 times, while his team ran the ball just 13 times with its two-headed running back tandem of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Against the Atlanta Falcons, they should be able to take care of their business to the point that they take their foot off the gas and don’t feel obligated to get into the same kind of pass-happy mindset. Brady has an absurd passing yardage Over/Under (312.5 yards at -144 Over, -114 Under). The Bucs should run the ball 25 or more times in this game, which makes achieving that number very hard to hit, barring an assignment collapse. Take the Under.

Mister Christian (Oh, the time has come)

Christian McCaffrey returned healthy to the Carolina Panthers after an injury-marred 2020 season and did what he does – account for 180 total yards with nearly equal amounts rushing and receiving. Against the New Orleans Saints, he has a modest rushing yardage Over/Under (66.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Coming off their big win against Green Bay, then Saints are chest-thumping knowing that, historically, they have kept McCaffrey in check in the run game. One big run will get half of this total covered. It’s what he does with the other 15+ that will get the job done. Take the Over.

Ain’t Kissin’ Cousins

One thing Kirk Cousins isn’t adept at is being able to make up for a bogus offensive line and put an offense on his shoulders. His passing yardage Over/Under (268.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is significant. With an offensive line incapable of holding up in a 7-yard drop situation, his options are to try to Dalvin Cook as long as is practical or complete short slant passes before he gets hit. To hit this number, he either needs to complete 30 passes or be so far behind that the run game isn’t an option. The Vikings should hang around long enough that the panic button doesn’t get hit too early. Take the Under.

My Kupp Runneth Over

It’s always tough to predict yardage Over/Under numbers for Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He’s going to get his, it’s only a matter of what he does when he gets the ball in his hands in traffic. However, his reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -144 Over, -114 Under) is far less of a gamble. The Indianapolis Colts secondary is weakened and, even if Kupp catches six passes for 40 yards, he still hits the number needed to head to the pay window. Take the Over.

Tom Brady 2020 season specials: What to bet on statistically

Analyzing the betting odds for Tom Brady 2020 regular-season proposition bets as he’ll be the Tampa Buccaneers starting quarterback.

QB Tom Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, has signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after 20 years and six championships with the New England Patriots. What can be expected from Brady statistically as a 43-year-old in a new offensive system for the first time in his career? He’ll turn 43 in August.

Here we look at the season special bets from BetMGM for Brady’s play in 2020 and analyze how you should place your wager.

Odds: Tom Brady 2020 season specials

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, April 10 at 3:30 a.m. ET.

200+ passing yards in each of the 16 regular-season games: Yes +650
1+ touchdown pass in each of the 16 regular-season games: Yes +800
Regular-season interceptions: Over 10.5 -132/Under 10.5 +110

Looking to wager on a Brady season special? Place a bet at BetMGM.

Passing yards best bet

For this bet, BetMGM only offers the “Yes +650” option. You either wager that he’ll throw for at least 200 passing yards in every regular-season game or you don’t. There is no line for a “No.”

For a historical look at Brady’s numbers, he had four games in 2019 with fewer than 200 passing yards, two in 2018, one in 2017 and one in 2016.

He is joining a Buccaneers team coached by Bruce Arians, known for prolific passing offenses. However, even the 2019 Buccaneers had four games with fewer than 200 net passing yards. When he coached the Arizona Cardinals from 2013-2017, there were 18 such games with at least two every season.

A “Yes” on Brady throwing for at least 200 in every single game would be doing so without recent precedent. ABSTAIN from this bet.

Touchdown passes best bet

As with the passing yards special above, there is only a “Yes” option for this wager: Recording at least one touchdown pass in each of the 16 regular-season games.

Brady has had nine zero-touchdown performances since 2016, with at least two every year.

Jameis Winston, the 2019 Bucs’ starting QB, had just one game with no touchdown passes last season.

When Arians coached the Cardinals, QB Carson Palmer had at least one game every season from 2013-2017 with no TD passes.

Historically, the best bet is to ABSTAIN.

Total interceptions best bet

The Over/Under for total regular-season interceptions is set at 10.5.

Brady has had fewer than 11 interceptions in five of the last six seasons. However, he will play in Arians’ offense, where interceptions are at a higher risk. Winston had 30 interceptions in 2019. Arians’ Cardinals teams threw no fewer than 12 interceptions from 2013-2017. As an offensive coordinator, only once has an Arians team thrown fewer than 11 interceptions in a season.

Here, your best bet is to take the OVER (-132).

New to betting? A $10 bet on Brady to throw more than 11 interceptions will win $7.58 if you win.

Want some action on any of these? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com..

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