Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week, we have a focus on the AFC South, making three of our five prop bet projections on teams from that division. For our picks, we have three players going Over their projection, a controversial Under projection, and a redemption story player scoring a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 2 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 2.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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A five-pack of NFL Week 2 bets to take to the bank.
We’re only one week into the 2023 NFL season and there already are teams nearing panic mode at the prospect of starting the year 0-2. While not a death sentence, it certainly puts them in a hole to dig out of.
For this week, we’re looking at a mixed bag of bets. We have a home dog on the moneyline, a big favorite to cover, a big favorite not to cover, a high-points game to hit the Over, and a high-points game to hit the Under. It’s a little something for everyone.
Note: All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Your comprehensive betting guide for NFL Week 2 action.
In Week 1, a shocking number of games went under the projected Over/Under totals (12 went Under, three went Over and one was a push). As we come to Week 2, there is a different anomaly that is taking place.
Of the 16 games on the Week 2 slate of games, nine road teams are favored. That may not seem like a big disparity, but it’s saying that home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be. The truth is the road favorites are not going to go 9-0. The challenge will be picking the right home dogs to win.
It’s only mid-September, but this game has a Halloween feel to it. Lincoln Financial Field is a house of horrors for Minnesota. They’ve been clubbed hard there, and the line reflects a repeat performance with the Eagles as a solid favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both). The Vikings defense isn’t equipped to stop Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability. That will open everything up in the pass game. Take the Eagles and lay 6.5 points (-110).
The Chargers get a lot of love from the oddsmakers despite sketchy results. Maybe it’s Justin Herbert‘s flowing mane that gets them. The Chargers are solid road favorites (3 points at -105 Chargers, -115 Titans). But this has the look of Derrick Henry‘s fingerprints being all over this. If the Chargers can’t stop him, Tennessee has the ball for more than 35 minutes and dictates pace, and they may win outright — much less getting 3 points. Take the Titans plus 3 points (-115).
The Packers went on the road to beat the Bears – what’s new? – but this will be a much better test of where the Packers are as a team in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. The Packers are given their due respect as a road favorite (1.5 points). The Falcons have a running game that, against the right opponent, can dominate time of possession. The Packers look to be one of those teams. Take the Falcons on the moneyline (+105).
Two of the most enigmatic rookie quarterbacks meet for the first time in this divisional battle. The Colts are a mild favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Texans are in a much deeper rebuild than the Colts (even without Jonathan Taylor) but Anthony Richardson is going to be the real deal. It has already started and Week 2 may cement that thought. Take the Colts and lay 1.5 points (-110).
The Seahawks laid an egg in Week 1 at home, while the Lions pulled off a big upset at Kansas City the previous Thursday. The bet to look at here is the Over/Under projection (47 points at -110 for the Over and Under). That’s a stiff number, but the Seahawks have the offensive weapons on a dry track that can do damage and Lions defense is no great shakes. Detroit will likely win, but it will be a back and forth battle. Take the Over of 47 points (-110).
The point spread isn’t a Bucs endorsement (2.5 points at +100 Bears, -120 Buccaneers), but Chicago’s defense is awful and will likely not get a quick fix in one week. The Bucs may be the worst 2-0 team in the league, but their run through the NFC North will continue. Take the Buccaneers and lay 2.5 points (-120).
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One of my admitted weaknesses is tending to back the big-point favorite – which Buffalo is (9.5 points at -100 for both the Raiders and Bills). Buffalo squandered a golden opportunity in Week 1. The Raiders in the early window of games (a 10 a.m. PT start time) against an angry team with Super Bowl intentions just doesn’t sound like a recipe for not getting blown out. Take the Bills and lay 9.5 points (-110).
The thought of the defending champs being 0-2 is a bitter pill to swallow. As such, we won’t go there. The Jags have an offense capable of competing with the Chiefs, which is why this is the biggest Over/Under number of the week (51 points at -110 for both). The Chiefs are going to score their share required, and the young, potent Jags are going to do their part. Take the Over of 51 points (-110).
The Bengals were brutalized in Week 1, and they are likely not going to drop to 0-2. That said, the Ravens aren’t going to get pushed around. The Over/Under number makes you think the Bengals are going to get things right (46 points and -110 for both). This number has gone Under in the last three meetings and five of the last seven. This has a field position and field goal feeling more than a ton of touchdowns. Take the Under of -110.
It’s rare when a team that lost by 40 points is a significant road favorite (5.5 points). But these are the Cardinals. I’m intrigued by the Over/Under (39.5 points at -110 for both). There’s no reason to believe either offense can provide enough firepower to hit the Over. Take the Under of 39.5 points (-110).
This is a big point spread for a road favorite (8.5 points at -105 49ers, -115 Rams). The simple fact of the matter is that the Rams offense did nothing against the 49ers last year in the changing of the guard in the NFC West, losing 24-9 and 31-14. Without Cooper Kupp, the trend continues. Imagine what will happen when the Niners start playing home games. Take the 49ers and lay 8.5 points (-110).
Yeah, the A-Rodg Jets are dead, but the defense isn’t. The Cowboys are an embarrassingly heavy favorite (9 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets aren’t going to get blown out like the Giants were. This spread is a little too high given the acumen of the Jets defense and the added weapons on offense for New York. Take the Jets plus-9 points (-110).
The Broncos lost at home last week, so there is a reason why they are minimal home favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both). Football is a game of corrections, and the Broncos will make the needed changes to dictate the pace of a field-possession-filled game to win. Take the Broncos and lay 3.5 points.
Few teams are better at making defensive changes to adapt to the situation than the Patriots. Miami is coming off a huge road win and are looking to go 2-0 before it plays its first home game. The Patriots won’t lay down. The Over/Under number plays into the mindset of the Dolphins winning (46.5 points at -110 for both). Miami may drop the Pats to 0-2, but they won’t blow them out. Take the Under of 46.5 points (-110).
The Saints struggled in their opener against the Titans, but the Panthers are a different animal completely. Carolina is in rebuild mode, where the Saints are not. If this game was later in the year, it may be a different story. New Orleans is a mildly significant road favorite (3 points at -115 Saints, -105 Panthers). The veterans on the Saints roster win the day. Take the Saints and lay 3 points (-110).
Given the Browns’ domination of the Bengals and the Steelers being humbled at home by the 49ers, Cleveland being installed as a 2.5-point road favorite on the road on Monday night makes some sense. However, betting against the Steelers at home – much less against a Browns team they have beaten in three of their last four home games – the chances of the Steelers going 0-2 at home isn’t likely. Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+115).
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
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Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
Five player prop bets that will take you to the pay window.
In Week 1 we had a good look at all 32 teams and what their squads look like – both their strengths and their weaknesses. In some instances, what we saw in Week 1 wasn’t representative of what we can expect over the course of the full season – teams like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
For most teams, what we saw is what we can likely expect – good and bad – going forward, so with more information to go on, we can base decisions on a track record from this season and, in the case of divisional games with a lot of history, a head-to-head track record.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
These Week 2 player prop bets are money in the bank!
As we get into Week 2, there is a paranoia among the 16 teams with a 0-1 record. Drop to 0-2 and you have a hole you’re digging out of for a month or more.
The prop bets for this week are based on the belief that the number adjustments on prop bets is being made a little too hastily.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 17, at 10:50 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys decided they were going to play Tampa Bay’s game and throw 100 times between them. How did that work out? They lost. A week later, the Cowboys are an underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers – a far lesser team. By his standards, Ezekiel Elliott has a shockingly low rushing yardage Over/Under (60.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Dallas won’t come into this game assuming it has to get into a track meet. The Cowboys will take their time and pick their shots. If Elliott gets more than a dozen carries, he should hit this number. If he gets 20? He blows it out of the water. Take the Over.
In the opener against the Cowboys, Tom Brady threw 50 times, while his team ran the ball just 13 times with its two-headed running back tandem of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Against the Atlanta Falcons, they should be able to take care of their business to the point that they take their foot off the gas and don’t feel obligated to get into the same kind of pass-happy mindset. Brady has an absurd passing yardage Over/Under (312.5 yards at -144 Over, -114 Under). The Bucs should run the ball 25 or more times in this game, which makes achieving that number very hard to hit, barring an assignment collapse. Take the Under.
Christian McCaffrey returned healthy to the Carolina Panthers after an injury-marred 2020 season and did what he does – account for 180 total yards with nearly equal amounts rushing and receiving. Against the New Orleans Saints, he has a modest rushing yardage Over/Under (66.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Coming off their big win against Green Bay, then Saints are chest-thumping knowing that, historically, they have kept McCaffrey in check in the run game. One big run will get half of this total covered. It’s what he does with the other 15+ that will get the job done. Take the Over.
One thing Kirk Cousins isn’t adept at is being able to make up for a bogus offensive line and put an offense on his shoulders. His passing yardage Over/Under (268.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is significant. With an offensive line incapable of holding up in a 7-yard drop situation, his options are to try to Dalvin Cook as long as is practical or complete short slant passes before he gets hit. To hit this number, he either needs to complete 30 passes or be so far behind that the run game isn’t an option. The Vikings should hang around long enough that the panic button doesn’t get hit too early. Take the Under.
It’s always tough to predict yardage Over/Under numbers for Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He’s going to get his, it’s only a matter of what he does when he gets the ball in his hands in traffic. However, his reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -144 Over, -114 Under) is far less of a gamble. The Indianapolis Colts secondary is weakened and, even if Kupp catches six passes for 40 yards, he still hits the number needed to head to the pay window. Take the Over.
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