Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday limit the number of games to choose from for the remainder of Week 12, but there are some prop bets to like. This week’s picks include a quarterback going Under, a quarterback going Over, two young wide receivers making a bigger impact than projected, and one of the most prolific scorers of his generation recording a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 12 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 12.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 12.
The slate of Sunday games is reduced due to Thanksgiving, but we still found a collection of picks that cover the gamut of bets. We have a favorite covering the spread, an underdog taking the points, a game going Over, another staying Under, and a game on the moneyline.
Enjoy the Thanksgiving leftovers with a pick stew that includes a little bit of everything.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
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DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 12 action.
It’s a shame the NFL can’t flex standalone games determined last spring before the season played out and the fortunes of teams took a dive.
Of the four games played on Thanksgiving and, God forbid, Black Friday, all four of the expected winners are favored by more than a touchdown – the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers by 7.5 points, the Miami Dolphins by 9.5 points, and the Dallas Cowboys by 12.5 points. In contrast, of the 12 games played Sunday and Monday, only one team (the Kansas City Chiefs at 9 points) are favored by more than 3.5 points, with five teams favored by less than two points.
It would seem the NFL botched this holiday tradition by having the games expected to be the closest being played when only part of the fan base is watching.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
The Packers are banged up offensively, and the Lions have won 16 of their last 20 regular season games – including three wins over Green Bay. Detroit is a solid home favorite (7.5 points at -110 for both teams). Three of Detroit’s last four home wins have been by more than this, and they’ll make it four out of five. Take the Lions and lay 7.5 points (-110).
The Cowboys are gigantic favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Commanders have lost four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. When the Cowboys win, they win big – six of their seven wins have come by 40, 20, 35, 23, 32 and 23 points. I hate laying huge numbers, but the Cowboys have paid off all season. Take the Cowboys and lay 12.5 points (-110).
The Seahawks are big home underdogs (7.5 points at -105 49ers, -115 Seahawks). Seattle’s offense is likely without Kenneth Walker III (oblique, doubtful) and QB Geno Smith (elbow) is questionable. Seattle would struggle to beat this 49ers team at 100%. Horribly weakened by injury makes that task a lot more daunting. Take the 49ers and lay 7.5 points (-105).
The Jets offense is a complete mess, and switching to QB Tim Boyle is why they’re such big home underdogs (9.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets defense should have them in the playoffs, but the offense is so punchless that it gives opponents more possessions to do damage. You don’t do that to Miami and get away with it. Take the Dolphins and lay 9.5 points (-110).
The Saints are one-point road favorites. Both teams have been extremely erratic. The Falcons have lost three straight games by a total of 10 points. They just haven’t closed out games. The Saints haven’t been able to string solid games together and with a win, Atlanta will by 3-0 and in first place in this weak division. Take the Falcons on the moneyline (-110).
The Bengals are starting the rest of the season without Joe Burrow as home underdogs. The Steelers offense has been putrid all season, which explains a very low Over/Under (35.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). This game should be controlled by defense and special teams with both offenses stunted. Take the Under (-110).
The Panthers are in line for the first pick in next year’s draft, and the Titans have struggled offensively. The Over/Under is low (37 points at -110 for both). Carolina has scored 15 or fewer points in six games this year, including each of their last four. The Titans have scored 16 or fewer seven times, including their last three and five of their last six games. Take Under 37 points (-110).
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The Buccaneers have won only once since Oct. 1, and the Colts are 1-4 in front of the home fans. Indianapolis is a small favorite (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The key here is that the Bucs defense is allowing only 90 rush yards a game and will be loading the box to stop Jonathan Taylor. You could bet the moneyline because the Bucs may win this outright, but getting points is a nice hedge to the bet. Take the Buccaneers plus 2.5 points (-110).
The Over/Under is very low (34.5 points at -110 for Over and Under). The Patriots keep benching Mac Jones, and Tommy DeVito is going to face defensive looks he’s never seen from Bill Belichick. For this game to hit the Over, it will require points from the defense and special teams. Take Under 34.5 points (-110).
The Texans have been a great success story, but since Houston hammered the Jaguars at home in Week 3, Jacksonville is 6-1 and 3-0 on the road. The Jaguars a small favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams), and there are plenty of reasons to think the Texans can win at home, but the Jaguars can distance themselves from Houston with a win. This is a must-win game for a better team. Take the Jaguars and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Denver has won four straight but has been outgained by 1,000 yards this season. The Browns offense has suffered critical injuries, but Cleveland’s defense has been lights out, and pressure defenses force Russell Wilson into mistakes that cost games. Take the Browns on the moneyline (+105).
The Rams have struggled to score points but are only slight road underdogs (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals have Kyler Murray back, and he is playing for his future in the event the Cardinals finish high enough in the draft order. This could be the most important stretch of Murray’s career. Take the Cardinals and lay 1 point (-110).
The Chiefs are big favorites (9 points at -110 for both teams), because they just don’t lose many games in November or December (or January). The Chiefs are 15-2 in their last 17 meetings with the Raiders and, coming off a difficult loss to the Eagles, will take it out on Vegas. Take the Chiefs and lay 9 points (-110).
The Bills are floundering after coming in with Super Bowl expectations, while the Eagles are making their case for a Super Bowl return. The Over/Under is big (48.5 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting up a lot of points, and it won’t take much to get this into shootout mode. Take Over 48.5 points (-110).
The Ravens have been one of the most dominant teams in the league, while the Chargers continue to find ways to lose. The Ravens are favored (3.5 points at -110 for both teams) and have the ability to blow out the Chargers if things fall right. LA needs this one badly, but the Ravens are ready for prime time. Take the Ravens and lay 3.5 points (-110).
The Bears have Justin Fields back, and the Vikings offense has a different look with Josh Dobbs at the wheel. The Over/Under is low (43 points at -110 for both teams). The difference quarterbacks who can scramble makes is that with one play they get a drive in scoring position or end a drive with a touchdown. Both quarterbacks are capable of that kind of game-changing plays. Take Over 43 points (-110).
We’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars.
This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 26 at 6:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).
After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).
Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).
It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).
There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).
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The top bets to make for Week 12 of the NFL season.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, the most underappreciated bet is the Over/Under. Every games falls somewhere in between 40 and 60 points. You rarely see anything less than 40 or more than 60. But this week we have two games getting as close to the “must bet” low category as there is and neither game involves the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars or Houston Texans.
Two games on the holiday weekend slate have Over/Under numbers of 41.5 points – Chicago at Detroit and Carolina at Miami. While there are games that hit below this number, usually a couple each week, it’s hard to come into a game projecting a total that low, because it doesn’t take much to hit. While 40 is the gold standard of “gotta take the Over” logic, for me 41.5 in Week 12 is enough for me chase points and hope for a couple defensive/special teams scores.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Nov. 25, at 7:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
The Lions are the hard luck team of 2020. They have a winning record against the spread but have nothing to show for it except losses and one tie. Chicago is faring little better and Matt Nagy’s job is in danger. That said, I think the Over/Under is a couple points too light for teams that know each other’s major flaws (41.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). I’m not a fan of either team, but that number doesn’t take a lot of things to happen to hit. Take the Over (-105).
The Cowboys are a huge favorite in this one (7.5 points at Raiders -115, Cowboys -105). To me, the key part of this game is that Dallas is familiar with the process of playing two games in five days at this time of year. They’re always at home and they know the routine, since they host a game every year on Thanksgiving. I don’t like giving away that many points (the number says the Raiders are expected to cover), but I’m willing to go with the team that does this every year. Take the Cowboys and lay the 7.5 points (-105).
The Bills are the most inconsistent elite team in the league. They look like a juggernaut one week and hot garbage the next – losing to teams that have no business taking them down. However, they’ve been better on the road than at home and are getting that respect by being solid favorites to win (6.5 points at Buffalo -105, New Orleans -115). Again, the number suggests that the Saints should cover, given the bigger investment needed to pay off the bet. But, I’m still riding on the tailgate of the Bills bandwagon and haven’t jumped just yet. Take the Bills and lay the 6.5 points (-105).
This is another extremely low Over/Under (41.5 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). However, you have a veteran in Cam Newton and a playmaker in Christian McCaffrey on one side of the ball and Tua Tagovailoa (who is battling to keep his starting job) and a collection of offensive role players on the other. Both QBs take chances, which could lead to a cheap defensive touchdown along way, both those risks also result in big plays. Take the Over (-110).
This is a tough one for me, because I don’t feel comfortable betting on either team to win or cover a point spread. There’s only one bet that I feel good about – the Over/Under (44.5 points at -110 for both). There is only one bet that has you banking on the ineptitude of both teams and the potential for 15 punts. Take the Under (-110).
The Giants are a hot mess and the firing of coaches has already begun. After starting the season almost refusing to run, the Eagles have become one of the most dominant rushing offenses in the league over the last month — and wins have followed. The Eagles are a mild favorite (3.5 points at Eagles -108, Giants -112). While I’m not sold on either quarterback, the Eagles ability to mix and match run and pass against a defeated Giants defense should be enough to cover the number. Take the Eagles and lay the 3.5 points (-108).
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The oddsmakers have a lot more faith in the Colts than I do. Indy beats the teams they should and vice versa. While underdogs on the moneyline, when it comes to point spread, the Colts are getting a lot of respect as a dog (3.5 points at Buccaneers +100, Colts -120). I’d be willing to boost this up to five or six points, but happily grab an even-money bet laying less than four. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
I’ve been consistent in avoiding putting my hard-earned money betting on the Jaguars, because I don’t have the faith they can cash in. Atlanta can be brutal at times, and Matt Ryan is starting to look his age without Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to count on. The Falcons are just a mild favorite (1.5 points at Falcon -112, Jaguars -108). While this is a game I will probably avoid Sunday, giving away a point-and-a-hook isn’t too much to ask. Take the Falcons and lay the 1.5 points.
Division matchups can be unpredictable, because the teams know each other so well and where their strengths and weaknesses lie. This year we’ve seen blowout wins for each of the four AFC North teams playing one another. While I don’t think this will be one of those games, the ability for either team to put up 30 points is critical. The Over/Under is a bit conservative (44.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Both offenses have showed they can get into a shootout, and both defenses have proved they can get lit up at times. That’s a good combination. Bet the Over (-112).
The Patriots defense has quietly been one of the most dominant in the league this season, which is why they currently find themselves atop the AFC East once again. Without Derrick Henry, the Titans offense has sputtered, and Bill Belichick will do what needs to be done to take A.J. Brown from beating them. The Over/Under is one of the lowest of the week (43.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). But, I believe the Patriots offense will grind out 10-play drives that end in field goals and Ryan Tannehill will struggle all day. Take the Under (-105).
The Chargers have had some struggles after a hot start, but they’re still a dangerous team capable of winning the AFC West. Denver has come back to the pack after a strong start, and the trade of Von Miller speaks to the front office’s lack of confidence in making a playoff run. The Chargers are a mild road favorite (2.5 points at Chargers -120, Broncos +100). If the Chargers are going to show how the West is won, beating a lesser divisional opponent is a must. Take the Chargers and lay the 2.5 points (-120).
Both teams seemed dead in the water a couple of weeks ago, but a pair of statement wins by both makes this a matchup that could determine if one of them locks down a wild-card spot six weeks from now. The 49ers are getting a lot of respect on the point spread (3.5 points at Vikings -117, 49ers -103). Minnesota seems to play everybody tight, and I think there is a fair possibility the Vikings win this one outright. But, I’m comfortable hedging my bet by getting more than a field goal in return. Take the Vikings plus the 3.5 points (-117).
This has the makings of a playoff rematch at some point in late January, and it’s nearly a dead heat on the line with the Packers being favored by just a half-point. I could see either team winning this game, but I’m a bigger fan of the Over/Under (47.5 points at -115 Over, -108 Under). Both offenses are capable of putting up big numbers and while the teams both have elite defenses, they both take risks, which is a mistake against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. If one team gets up by 10 or more early, this has all the makings of an “anything you can do I can do better” shootout between the QBs. Take the Over (-115).
The Browns (Baker Mayfield in particular) have been under fire from their own fan base in recent weeks, while the Ravens have been dealing with issues of their own in recent weeks. Baltimore is a pretty solid favorite (3.5 points at -110 for both the Browns and Ravens). With Lamar Jackson back, the Ravens offense has the capability of putting up big numbers – big enough to cover this line. Take the Ravens and lay the 3.5 points (-110).
Washington is a 1.5-point home favorite, which surprises me a little bit. Granted, Seattle’s defense is nothing resembling the old Legion of Boom, but at 3-7 there is talk of breaking up the band in Seattle. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have never struggled like they have this season, but I don’t see them going down without a fight and do so under the national spotlight. Take the Seahawks on the money line (-103).
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