Tag: Stats

P.J. Williams’ stats in covering the slot versus lining up outside

The New Orleans Saints have to start P.J. Williams in place of injured cornerback Marshon Lattimore, but his NFL experience should help out.

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Marshon Lattimore may be the most important player on the New Orleans Saints defense, but they’ll be without him on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lattimore injured his hamstring last week versus the Atlanta Falcons and missed practice throughout the week, with New Orleans ruling him out for their road game in Tampa. When Lattimore is playing at his best, there isn’t a receiver in football who can beat him — including Falcons superstar Julio Jones and Buccaneers big-play threat Mike Evans.

So the Saints have to adapt to life without him, at least temporarily. That means a change of responsibilities for starting slot corner P.J. Williams, who slides into Lattimore’s spot. While he’s definitely best suited to defending routes from the inside, Pro Football Focus charting over the last few years suggests Williams is hardly helpless when lined up outside.

When defending the slot in his last 24 games (including the playoffs), Williams has allowed 68 of 102 passes (66.7%) thrown into his coverage to be completed, gaining 810 yards (11.9 yards per catch). He’s forced 11 incomplete throws (11.8% of his total targets) in that time. That’s a passer rating allowed of 103.0.

The presence of Lattimore and the Saints’ other starting cornerback, Eli Apple, has limited Williams’ exposure outside of the slot. But during that same time frame he’s allowed 11 of 19 targets (57.9%) to be completed when playing out on the boundary, totaling 182 yards (16.5 yards per catch) with two forced incompletions (10.5%); all summed up in a 129.8 passer rating allowed.

So the numbers prove that, yes, Williams is better playing from the slot. That backs up what can be seen firsthand in his game tape. But they also that he’s unlikely to be a total liability, which we also saw last week when he stepped in against Atlanta. Williams was one of several defensive backs responsible for Jones’ big 54-yard grab-and-go, but he chipped in as part of a team effort to limit Jones to just three catches on nine targets in that game. He can play in this league.

What does this mean as far as Saints fans’ expectations for him against Tampa Bay, which boasts a strong one-two punch between Evans and Chris Godwin? The potential for big plays is there but Williams should give as good as he gets. He has the ability, and now the opportunity, to go out and help make a difference in an important NFC South game.

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Georgia football: Score, stat predictions for UGA vs Auburn

Here are some Georgia football score and stat predictions for the UGA vs Auburn game.

No. 4 Georgia and No. 12 Auburn square off on The Plains at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS from the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

For Georgia, everything rides on this game. A win secures the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC Championship and gets them one step closer to making a trip to the College Football Playoff.

For Auburn, the Tigers pretty much dictate how the rest of the college football season plays out. Both Georgia and Alabama need to beat Auburn if either want to head to the playoff, meanwhile Oregon, which lost to Auburn early in the season, is hoping that the Tigers can win at least one of two games vs UGA and Bama. If Auburn can win, Oregon’s lone loss becomes a lot more forgivable and gives the Ducks a better argument to the committee at season’s end.

This should be your classic SEC matchup. A good ole fashion bloodbath featuring two of college football’s most physical teams.

Here’s what I see happening today:

Here are a few predictions previewing today’s game.

Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn:

I’m taking Georgia to cover.

Over/Under (43.5)

Taking the under.

Odds via BetMGM. Access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:30 p.m.

Want to get in on the action? Place your bet now at BetMGM.

Score: Georgia, 17-10

Stats…

QB Jake Fromm:

18/25, 227 yards, 1 TD

RB D’Andre Swift:

18 carries, 91 yards, 1 TDs

RB Brian Herrien:

8 carries, 52 yards

WR Lawrence Cager:

5 catches, 88 yards

WR George Pickens:

6 catches, 71 yards

DB J.R. Reed:

5 solo tackles, 1 INT

OLB Azeez Ojulari

2 sacks

LB Monty Rice:

9 solo tackles

LB Tae Crowder:

8 solo tackles

K Rodrigo Blankenship:

1/1 field goals, 2/2 PATs

Georgia offensive line:

One sack allowed.

On Georgia’s first drive of the game:

The place will be deafening and Georgia will surprise us all with a deep shot. Next thing we know, Georgia is just past midfield. The drive will stall after two runs and an incomplete pass. Jake Camarda pins Auburn inside its own 15 yard line.

On Auburn’s first drive of the game:

Nowhere to go. Auburn had a bye week to prepare for Georgia’s defense, but you can’t prepare for speed and physicality. Georgia allows one first down and then forces a punt.

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Who returns punts with Deonte Harris injured?

The New Orleans Saints will be without their breakout star punt returner against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so who fills in for Deonte Harris?

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Breakout rookie punt returner Deonte Harris was an unexpected absentee on the New Orleans Saints injury report, with the team ruling him out for their Sunday game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Harris’s loss is huge; he’s been the best to do it for New Orleans since Sean Payton was hired as head coach, and the rookie is the only player in the NFL with 200-plus yards on both punts and kickoffs.

Unfortunately, a late-game hamstring injury versus the Atlanta Falcons has put his availability in doubt, though the team already put him on the shelf this week. Hopefully this won’t become a lingering issue that derails his promising NFL debut.

In the meantime, who will the Saints roll out to fill in for him against the Buccaneers?

The easy answer on punts is Ted Ginn Jr., who has the most NFL experience doing that of anyone else left on the roster. But Saints coach Sean Payton has been critical of Ginn’s shaky hands in the past and may prefer to give younger teammates a shot first.

One of those candidates could be Krishawn Hogan, who was the only other player warming up as a punt returner next to Harris before last week’s Falcons game. Hogan has only played a handful of snaps so far, mostly blocking on run plays, but he might be someone Payton considers for the job.

Two other names to monitor are players more familiar with Saints fans: quarterback Taysom Hill and running back Alvin Kamara. They have both returned punts and kickoffs in the past, with Kamara notching a 106-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Tampa Bay back in his 2017 rookie season. He’s since eased off of return duties due to his value on offense, but it’s possible the Saints get desperate for a spark and trot him out.

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Georgia Football Week 12: Expert picks and predictions (UGA vs Auburn)

Georgia football expert picks and predictions for UGA vs Auburn. Stats, score, betting predictions.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a chance to go the their 3rd straight SEC Championship game with a win over Auburn this Saturday.

They have already proven that they control their own destiny, winning three straight SEC East games following an overtime loss to South Carolina.

Many counted Georgia out, saying its season was over with that loss, but the Dawgs kept barking and scrapped their way back into the top 4 and in perfect position to make a trip to the SEC Championship, likely against LSU.

But first, Georgia’s focus is on Auburn. A win, and the Dawgs not only secure a trip back to Atlanta, but can start thinking College Football Playoff – though Kirby Smart would never admit that.

This Saturday in Auburn is going to be a bloodbath, as these are two of the most physically dominant teams in college football.

UGA Wire compiled a list of staff predictions, including the game score, spread, over/under, stat lines and more to get you ready for the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

Here are the picks:

The money makers:

#4 Georgia (-2.5) @ #12 Auburn: Against The Spread

(Game pick: If you think Georgia will win and cover, Georgia. If you think Georgia will win, but not cover, Georgia*. If you think Auburn will win and cover, Auburn. If you think Auburn will win, but not cover, Auburn*)

Jackson Fryburger: UGAWire.com- Georgia

Joe Vitale: UGAWire.com-  Georgia

James Morgan: UGAWire.com- Georgia*

Jackson Stone: UGAWire.com- Georgia

Henry Sillen: UGAWire.com- Georgia

Garrett Shearman: UGAWire.com- Georgia*

Over/under (40.5) 

Jackson Fryburger: UGAWire.com- Under

Joe Vitale: UGAWire.com-  Under

James Morgan: UGAWire.com- Over

Jackson Stone: UGAWire.com- Under

Henry Sillen: UGAWire.com- Over

Garrett Shearman: UGAWire.com- Over

Score prediction:

Jackson Fryburger: UGAWire.com- Georgia 24, Auburn 13

Joe Vitale: UGAWire.com- Georgia 17, Auburn 10

James Morgan: UGAWire.com- Georgia 21, Auburn 20

Jackson Stone: UGAWire.com- Georgia 17, Auburn 14

Henry Sillen: UGAWire.com- 27 – 23 Georgia

Garrett Shearman: UGAWire.com- Georgia 21, Auburn 20

Odds via BetMGM. Access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:30 p.m.

Want to get in on the action? Place your bet now at BetMGM.

NEXT: STAT PREDICTIONS

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Former Saints LB Vince Biegel turning into a bright spot for Dolphins

Few would argue that the New Orleans Saints made a bad move in swapping linebackers with the Miami Dolphins back before the NFL roster cuts deadline, shipping out a special teams ace and defensive reserve for a starting-quality veteran. Kiko Alonso …

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Few would argue that the New Orleans Saints made a bad move in swapping linebackers with the Miami Dolphins back before the NFL roster cuts deadline, shipping out a special teams ace and defensive reserve for a starting-quality veteran. Kiko Alonso has played well for New Orleans in his first few months on the job, gradually picking up more of the defensive playbook and earning increasingly-high snap counts.

But this is a case where both parties came away feeling good about what they’d gained. For Miami, it meant a talented pass rusher who’s just happy to have the opportunity. Vince Biegel has turned into a bright spot in a season that’s been tough to watch for Dolphins fans. He ranks second on the team in sacks (2) but leads the defense in hits (11) by a landslide. If he put up those same numbers for the Saints, he’d rank third-best in each category.

According to pressure rates charted by Pro Football Focus, Biegel places inside the top 10 for pass rushers league-wide, ranking just above Marcus Davenport. That shows that he’s performing well with consistency on a snap-to-snap basis, not just notching a few lucky plays.

And for Biegel and his family, the opportunity to start on a defense and make a career in Miami is something to be grateful for. Wins and losses are great (and his fortunes there would be widely reversed if the Saints hadn’t traded him), but the chance to write his own NFL story is something he appreciates.

“To be in (Dolphins coach Brian Flores) defense has been a blessing for me,” Biegel said earlier this season. “Coach Flo reminds me a lot of Dave Aranda, who was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, a guy who really loved to mix it up, a great defensive mind who really put guys in great positions to make plays.”

And he’s made some memorable plays for Dolphins faithful already, including his first career sack — which came against none other than New England Patriots legend Tom Brady. The list of players who can boast that kind of start to their career is brief, and it’s something Biegel takes pride in.

“For me, this has been the most comfortable defense I’ve been a part of so far in the league,” Biegel continued. “It’s been fun to be a part of this defense, make some plays, obviously for the team and continue to grow. As the season progresses, and hopefully (I) stay here for years to come I hopefully can grow and develop and to be a great, great player in this defense.”

So what does this mean for Saints fans? It’s certainly not something to complain about. Biegel was playing well in his role for New Orleans, but the opportunity to add someone as experienced as Alonso was too good to pass up, especially with Biegel buried on the depth chart. If anything, having someone to root for during Dolphins games is a plus for fans of the black and gold — so long as they aren’t the ones playing against Biegel and his new team.

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Saints WR Keith Kirkwood working to return from injured reserve

New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton commended the progress WR Keith Kirkwood has made in working to return from injured reserve.

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The New Orleans Saints had high hopes for second-year wide receiver Keith Kirkwood during the summer. Kirkwood was their preferred stand-in for Michael Thomas during his brief holdout for a contract extension, but he played just a dozen snaps in the season-opener before exiting with a hamstring injury. It continued to dog him throughout the following week and was so badly aggravated in pregame warmups that he landed on injured reserve.

Now, nine weeks later, Kirkwood is working to return to the team. Because of the NFL’s injured reserve rules, players designated to return from that list have a two-week window in which to practice before they can be allowed to suit up for a game. The Saints haven’t given Kirkwood that designation yet, so it means the earliest he could possibly return would be Week 13’s game with the Atlanta Falcons. But Saints coach Sean Payton did offer an update on his status before practice Wednesday.

“He’s doing well,” Payton said. “He’s been moving well and running well, so we’ll keep paying attention to that and keep working with him and getting him to where he’s able to play.”

New Orleans could certainly use his help, whenever he does return. Thomas paces the team (and the NFL) with 86 receptions, but all of their other wide receivers have combined for just 30 catches this season. They’ve gotten by with Thomas putting the team on his back each week and some creative use of their other skills position talent, but a 26-9 loss to the Falcons last Sunday highlighted just how thin the position group is. Somebody has to step up and make a play besides No. 13 sometimes.

Maybe Kirkwood could be the help the Saints need. He came through in clutch moments last season as a rookie practice squad call-up, appearing in nine games (including the playoffs). He went 15-of-23 for 217 yards, a clip of 14.5 yards per catch, converting 12 first downs and scoring three touchdowns. For perspective, here’s how that stat line would rank among Saints wide receivers this year:

  • Third in receptions
  • Third in receiving yards,
  • Second in touchdown catches
  • Tied for second in first down conversions

Even if his performance came on limited snap counts (Kirkwood averaged 30.9 plays per game on offense, but trailed only Thomas among snaps played by wide receivers in their playoff game with the Philadelphia Eagles), it was enough to earn Brees’ trust and build some momentum going into the offseason. Hopefully they can pick up where they left off when Kirkwood returns, if he’s able. Payton is clearly encouraged by his progress so far.

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Rookie returner Deonte Harris is on pace to make Saints history

The New Orleans Saints picked up a game-changing talent in Deonte Harris, and if he keeps it up, he might make franchise history.

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The New Orleans Saints didn’t have much to hang their hats on during last week’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons, but one player remained a bright spot: rookie return specialist Deonte Harris. Harris picked up 19 yards on a timely punt return and had his best game as a kickoff returner (bringing back four of them for 109 yards) in the loss, doing his part to give his team good field position.

What’s impressive is that this is who Harris has been all season. He’s the only player in the NFL to record 200 or more yards returning both punts (he has 232) and kickoffs (309). It’s rare to see a player impact both areas so well, especially as a rookie. And it’s not like he carries an elite NFL pedigree as a former five-star recruit; he’s a product of Assumption College, a small school in Worcester, Mass. While he stunted on that lower level of competition (earning the NCAA all-division record with 14 combined touchdown returns along the way), the ease of which his skills have translated to the NFL might be unprecedented.

His performance so far stands out well in the context of Saints team history. The 232 punt return yards he’s logged through nine games are the fourth-most in a single season for New Orleans since Sean Payton was hired as head coach, surpassing Reggie Bush’s own rookie production in 2006. He’s on pace to collect 412 yards on punt returns, which would be the best total in Payton’s era and the fifth-most in franchise history. It’s a long shot for him to unseat Michael Lewis’s 2002 season (his 625 punt return yards and 1,807 kick return yards earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro recognition), but it’s obvious that Harris can’t be completely ruled out.

Talk about hitting on an undrafted free agent signing. And these numbers don’t account for a long punt return touchdown Harris scored against the Chicago Bears but lost on a dubious holding call that still vexes his coaches. He’s a player who’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball; hopefully the Saints can start to involve him on offense.

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Saints-Falcons snap counts: Defensive line playing often, but not playing well

The New Orleans Saints have given high snap counts to several first-round defensive linemen, but they haven’t received big plays in return.

The New Orleans Saints came up short too early and too often against the Atlanta Falcons, but where do the faults lie? Which position groups are too thin or underperforming too frequently? To find out, we surveyed the Saints snap counts from their Week 10 loss and broke them down below. Here’s what we’ve learned:

Offensive backfield

  • QB Drew Brees, 69 (100%)
  • RB Alvin Kamara, 54 (78%)
  • RB Latavius Murray, 17 (25%)
  • FB Zach line, 9 (13%)
  • QB Taysom Hill, 7 (10%)

The Saints found a great formula they can win with during Teddy Bridgewater’s stint at quarterback: a physically assertive running attack fueled by strong blocking up front, and heavy usage of the fullback. That plan flew out the window early on when miscues in the passing game (off-target throws and dropped would-be big gains) put the Saints into a negative game script. Kamara rarely left the field in his first game back from injury, but the Saints rarely allowed him to run the ball despite consistent success on limited touches. They didn’t have a very effective plan going into this game, and didn’t execute it very well, either.

Skills positions

  • WR Michael Thomas, 66 (96%)
  • WR Tre’Quan Smith, 57 (83%)
  • TE Jared Cook, 49 (71%)
  • WR Ted Ginn Jr., 48 (70%)
  • TE Josh Hill, 22 (32%)
  • WR Krishawn Hogan, 11 (16%)
  • WR Deonte Harris, 2 (3%)

This game was one to forget for the receiving corps; Thomas may have reeled in 13 of his 14 targets, but he was held out of the end zone like everyone else. And all of the receivers listed after him combined for one catch on five targets, with Ginn dropping all three of his opportunities. Brees was a little off-target at times, sure, but the Saints badly needed someone besides Thomas to make a play, and none of them were up to it. It’s continued to be a disappointing first season in black and gold for Cook.

Offensive line

  • T Terron Armstead, 69 (100%)
  • T Ryan Ramczyk, 69 (100%)
  • G Larry Warford, 69 (100%0
  • C Erik McCoy, 69 (100%)
  • G Will Clapp, 49 (71%)
  • G Andrus Peat, 22 (32%)
  • G Patrick Omameh, 1 (1%)

An injury to Peat shortly before halftime pushed Clapp into the lineup, but neither of them played well. Peat was repeatedly bullied by Falcons interior lineman Grady Jarrett, one of the league’s better pass rushers at his position, and he ended up on his back too many times before exiting the game with an arm injury. Clapp has shown before that he can handle a big role in a pinch, but there wasn’t much to be encouraged by in his prolonged action against one of the NFL’s thinnest defensive lines. Atlanta runs a one-man show up front, but the Saints offensive line was challenged across the board by players they should (on paper) outclass.

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Saints open up as 5.5-point road favorites over Buccaneers

The New Orleans Saints are poised for a get-right road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which they’re favored by 5.5 points.

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The New Orleans Saints are looking ahead to their rematch with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this time with Drew Brees in at quarterback. His understudy, Teddy Bridgewater, turned in the best game of his year when the Buccaneers visited last time; now Brees will get his turn on the road.

Per the latest odds from BetMGM, the Saints are favored by 5.5 points at Raymond James Stadium. With an over/under set at 51.5, that implies a final score in the neighborhood of Saints 29, Buccaneers 23. That’s hardly a blowout, suggesting more of a competitive atmosphere — which is what the Saints are used to in Tampa Bay, having trailed most of the game in last year’s visit. They lost the 2017 regular season finale a year earlier on a last-second Chris Godwin touchdown catch.

It’ll be fascinating to see how the Saints respond to getting punched in the mouth by the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the first game in a four-week series against NFC South division rivals. While the Buccaneers have been nearly as sorry as Atlanta (their 3-6 record speaks for itself), they’ve had the opportunity to regroup during their bye week and play better football. They took the Seattle Seahawks to overtime and beat the Arizona Cardinals in a frantic fourth quarter on Sunday.

Still, this should be a get-right game for New Orleans. Their defensive line has quieted down in recent weeks after a hot start to the season. Starting defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and edge rusher Marcus Davenport have combined played a combined 287 snaps over their last four games, but that’s turned into just eight total tackles (two solo), no tackles for loss, no sacks, and one quarterback hit.

They’ll be playing essentially the same offensive line they bullied in their last meeting, a game where Rankins logged his first sack since last year’s Achilles injury and where Davenport put up the best day of his season (two sacks, three hits, and a forced fumble). The Saints defense will go as far as the monsters up front can take it (especially with top cornerback Marshon Lattimore on the mend), but all of those former first-round picks have lost their mojo in recent weeks.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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