SMU Mustangs betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Alex’s best bet: College Football Playoff – SMU at Penn State prediction

SportsbookWire.com’s Alex White likes a side in Saturday’s College Football Playoff game between SMU and Penn State.

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Alex White says Saturday is the “best football day of the year.”

It’s hard to argue when there are 3 first-round College Football Playoff games and 2 NFL games on the docket.

One of those first-round CFP games features Alex’s best bet.

She’s tabbed a side in Saturday’s first contest when the SMU Mustangs (11-2) visit the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2). Kickoff from Happy Valley is set for noon ET and will be televised on TNT and MAX.

SMU is seeded 11th, while Penn State is seeded sixth. The winner will face No. 3 seed Boise State (12-1) in the Fiest Bowl on New Year’s Eve in Glendale, Ariz.

Saturday will mark the third all-time meeting between SMU and Penn State. The Nittany Lions won the most recent matchup 26-21 at Beaver Stadium back in 1978. The first meeting resulted in a 13-13 tie in the 1948 Cotton Bowl.

As of Saturday at 3:01 a.m. ET, BetMGM Sportsbook lists Penn State as an 8.5-point favorite with -115 juice, while it’s -105 odds for SMU +8.5.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Listen below to why Alex likes a side in this one as her best bet.

🏈SMU or Penn State?🏈@alexwhitee‘s 💸best bet 💸 Saturday involves the 🏈 @CFBPlayoff matchup 🏈 from @beaver_stadium 🏟️when the @SMUFB Mustangs visit the @PennStateFball Nittany Lions. 🏈 What do you think? 🤔What is your 💰best bet 💰Saturday? pic.twitter.com/NOoBVnZa5K

— SportsBookWire (@SportsBookWire) December 21, 2024

Make sure to catch Alex on Sports By the Book Saturday 11 a.m.-noon ET, and Sunday through Wednesday noon-1 p.m. ET, and on Punch Lines every Monday and Wednesday 3 p.m.-4 p.m. ET — live from the South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Follow @alexwhitee on Twitter/X.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s SMU at Penn State odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs (11-2) and No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) meet in the first round of the College Football Playoff Saturday. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is set for noon ET (TNT/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Penn State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

SMU lost 34-31 to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC title game on Dec. 7 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Mustangs trailed by 17 points at the end of the third quarter, but stormed back to tie the game before the Tigers won on a game-winning field goal as time expired.

Penn State lost 45-37 to the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 7 as a 3-point underdog. The Nittany Lions racked up 523 total yards and 28 first downs against Oregon, but their 2 turnovers were costly. Penn State is 1-2 against ranked opponents this year.

Penn State is ranked No. 5 and SMU is No. 12 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

SMU at Penn State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): SMU +275 (bet $100 to win $275) | Penn State -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU +8.5 (-105) | Penn State -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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SMU at Penn State picks and predictions

Prediction

Penn State 35, SMU 17

Moneyline

PASS.

The Nittany Lions should pick up the win as -350 favorites, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites, especially not in the playoffs. Pass here and bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

LEAN PENN STATE -8.5 (-115).

The Nittany Lions’ offense will allow them to cover in this game as SMU’s defense is bad, allowing 232.7 passing yards per game and over 20 points per game. Penn State’s offense also averages 448.6 yards per game, so the Nittany Lions will be able to get whatever they want here.

Penn State is also officially treating this game as a White Out game, meaning that the crowd will be absolutely electric for the Nittany Lions, which will give them a nice advantage that will help them cover here.

This is a lean because Penn State and coach James Franklin are notorious for throwing away big games.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 53.5 (-110).

The Under has hit in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 home games and is 2-1 in SMU’s last 3 games. The Under is also 7-6 for Penn State this season.

Penn State’s defense will be pivotal to the Under hitting as the Nittany Lions hold opponents to under 285 total yards per game and 16.4 PPG.

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ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Clemson vs. SMU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Clemson Tigers (9-3) and SMU Mustangs (11-1) are lined up for an ACC Championship battle Saturday night. The opening kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will be at 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Clemson vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Clemson, which is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, went 7-1 in ACC play. The Tigers lost to Louisville in a Nov. 2 league game and then went on a 3-game win streak. That run was ended Saturday in a non-conference loss to South Carolina. Favored-by-2½ Clemson was undone by a Gamecocks TD with 1:08 to play in a 17-14 loss.

No. 7 SMU — owner of an 8-0 mark in conference play — closed out its regular season by covering a 12½-point spread in a 38-6 triumph over Cal Saturday. Southern Methodist has scored 33-plus points in each of its last 4 games. The Mustangs’ 39.2 points per game rank 5th in FBS.

Clemson and SMU did not meet in the regular season. Saturday’s circuit title clash will mark the first meeting between the 2 programs.

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Clemson vs. SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Clemson +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | SMU -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Clemson +2.5 (-110) | SMU -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Clemson vs. SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 31, Clemson 27

Moneyline

The Mustangs have won 9 in a row. They may not be as battle-tested as the Tigers down the stretch, but their late-season margins against the likes of Pitt (Nov. 2: 48-25), Boston College (Nov. 16: 38-28) and Cal (Nov. 30: 38-6) show how dangerous this team can be. Only Pitt is a comp for Clemson, and the Tigers snuck by the Panthers 24-20 while being a yardage minus and a turnover plus.

In the bloated ACC, only talented Louisville makes for a better comparison game between CU and SMU. Clemson lost to the Cardinals by 12 while the Mustangs downed them by 12.

The offensive production for CU and SMU has been similar. But peg the Mustangs defense as being a separator on Saturday. Southern Methodist is exceptional against the run, both in keeping foes off schedule and in preventing explosive plays.

Pegging Southern Methodist as a 60% win probability, MUSTANGS -135 is a leverage play here.

Against the spread

No interest here. PASS.

Over/Under

The last 9 SMU games have seen 6 wins (6-3) for the Over.

Both offenses play with some pace, and both have seen recent upticks in red-zone success. The 2 defenses are proficient in creating havoc plays; that figures to up the chance for a couple short-field-quick-strikes.

Add in some chilly-but-otherwise-benign weather, and even after some early-week move already headed this direction, the OVER 55.5 (-110) has betting value.

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Cal at SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cal at SMU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cal Golden Bears (6-5, 2-5 ACC) and No. 9 SMU Mustangs (10-1, 7-0) meet Saturday. Kickoff from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Cal vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Cal picked up a 24-21 win over rival Stanford in the Big Game Nov. 23 in Berkeley, but it came nowhere near covering as a 14.5-point favorite while the Under (53.5) cashed. Cal has won 3 of the past 4 games to attain bowl eligibility, but it has failed to cover in consecutive outings for the first time this season. The Under is 1-0-1 in the past 2 games after a 3-0 run to the Over.

SMU posted a 33-7 win at Virginia as an 11-point favorite Saturday while the Under (54.5) cashed. The Mustangs have won 8 in a row, while going 6-2 against the spread (ATS). The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games, while going 6-2 in the previous 8 outings.

Rankings – US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Cal at SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cal +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | SMU -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
Against the spread: Cal +13.5 (-110) | SMU -13.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cal at SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 32, Cal 22

Moneyline

SMU (-550) will cost you 5½ times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward. Even as part of a multi-team parlay, that’s not a recommended play.

SMU can secure a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win in this game and a victory in the ACC Championship Game, but it cannot take its foot off the gas.

PASS.

Against the spread

Play CAL +13.5 (-110) catching nearly 2 TDs in the Metroplex as it closes out its first season of ACC play.

The Golden Bears have been exciting on offense lately, going for 23 or more points in 5 straight games, while the defense has allowed 21 or more points in 3 in a row.

Cal will need that offense to be on point, as SMU -13.5 (-110) has been good for 28 or more points in 8 consecutive outings.

Over/Under

OVER 55.5 (-105) might be the best play on the board.

The Mustangs have cashed high in 3 of the past 4 outings and 6 of the previous 8 contests. They roll up 444.3 total yards per game, and 39.3 points per game, with a balanced attack led by dual-threat QB Kevin Jennings.

The Golden Bears have hit the Over at a 3-1-1 clip in the past 5 outings, and they have the offense to at least keep the Mustangs somewhat close in a high-scoring affair.

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SMU at Virginia odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s SMU at Virginia odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC) welcome the No. 12 SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0) to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA, Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

SMU is No. 12 in the US LBM Coaches Poll while Virginia comes in unranked. The Mustangs beat the Boston College Eagles 38-28 Saturday in Week 12 action, failing to cover as a 19-point home favorite. They have rattled off 7 straight wins, going 5-2 against the spread (ATS). SMU is led by RB Brashard Smith, who has scored 14 TDs and has rushed for 1,026 yards.

Virginia is coming off a demoralizing 35-14 road loss to the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, failing to cover as a 20.5-point underdog. It is just 1-4 straight up over its last 5 games, but 3-2 ATS in those games and 6-3-1 ATS on the season. They are led by QB Anthony Colandrea, who has 2,017 passing yards and 12 TDs.

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SMU at Virginia odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 1:34 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): SMU -375 (bet $375 to win $100) | Virginia +290 (bet $100 to win $290)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU -10 (-110) | Virginia +10 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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SMU at Virginia picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 35, Virginia 27

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no reason for a moneyline play here. The Cavaliers have lost 2 straight at home and haven’t shown much resilience. Yet, at the same time, the SMU is too expensive to take to win outright.

Against the spread

BET VIRGINIA +10 (-110).

The Cavaliers have been a covering machine over the last 2 months. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and 2-1 ATS in their conference home games. They have scored at least 20 points in 5 of their last 7outings as well.

The Mustangs have been a favorite of 10-20 points 4 times and are 1-3 ATS in those. They have allowed at least 25 points in 3 straight and are coming off a game in which they gave up 28 points to Boston College, a team Virginia beat earlier in the season.

While SMU should win, take VIRGINIA +10 (-110) to cover.

Over/Under

BET OVER 56.5 (-110).

SMU has an electric offense, scoring at least 38 points 3 times in its last 4 games. It it 7-3 O/U and 6-1 O/U in its last 7 games. The Mustangs defense has been porous as well, allowing at least 25 points in 4 of their last 5.

The Cavaliers are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games, but have given up at least 35 points in 3 of their last 4. They should be able to score on a weak SMU defense while also having allowed far too many points in the last 2 months.

Take OVER 56.5 (-110).

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First look: SMU at Virginia odds and lines

Looking at Saturday’s SMU at Virginia college football odds, lines and trends. Here’s what you need to know.

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The 12th-ranked SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0 ACC) visit the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3) Saturday. Kickoff from Scott Stadium is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN2). Below, we look at SMU vs. Virginia odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds before making our expert college football picks and predictions later in the week.

SMU has won 7 games in a row after taking down Boston College 38-28 Saturday, but it failed to cover as a 19-point home favorite. QB Kevin Jennings was 24-of-35 passing for 298 yards with 3 TDs and an INT.

Virginia has lost 4 of its last 5 games after falling 35-14 at Notre Dame Saturday while failing to cover as a 20.5-point underdog. QB Tony Muskett completed 9 of 14 passes for 103 yards, while QB Anthony Colandrea went 8-of-21 for 69 yards and 3 INTs.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

SMU at Virginia odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:39 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): SMU -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Virginia +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU -9.5 (-110) | Virginia +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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2024 betting stats

ML: SMU 9-1 | Virginia 5-5
ATS: SMU 6-4 | Virginia 6-3-1
O/U: SMU 7-3 | Virginia 3-7

SMU vs. Virginia head-to-head

SMU and Virginia have never faced one another, making Saturday their first all-time meeting.

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Boston College vs. SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston College at SMU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston College Eagles (5-4, 2-3 ACC) and the No. 13 SMU Mustangs (8-1, 5-0) meet Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Boston College vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Boston College ended a 3-game skid by defeating the Syracuse Orange 37-31, covering the 3-point spread and going Over the 51.5 total. The Eagles took control on the ground, rushing for 313 yards. RB Kye Robichaux carried the load with 28 rushes for 198 yards and 2 TDs and RB Jordan McDonald chipped in with 133 yards and a TD on 15 carries.

The Mustangs won their 6th straight game, defeating the then No. 23 Pitt Panthers 48-25, easily covering the 7-point spread as the Over (56) hit. QB Kevin Jennings threw for 306 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Brashard Smith rushed for 161 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries. SMU’s defense forced 2 turnovers in the dominant performance.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Boston College vs. SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 3:48 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Boston College +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | SMU -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Boston College +19.5 (-110) | SMU -19.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Boston College vs. SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 38, Boston College 28

Moneyline

PASS.

I’ve got the Mustangs (-1000) getting the victory at home but Boston College (+625) keeping it competitive. I’ll take my bet to the spread.

Against the spread

BET BOSTON COLLEGE +19.5 (-110).

The Mustangs are 6-3 ATS and playing at home. Boston College has been competitive recently, covering in their last 2 games, once as an underdog. The Eagles also covered as double-digit underdogs earlier this season against both the Missouri Tigers and Florida State Seminoles. With their recent form, expect BC to fight hard and keep the game closer than anticipated, making them a strong candidate to cover the spread.

Over/Under

BET OVER 54.5 (-105).

Both teams have potent offenses that know how to score. SMU is averaging 453 yards and 40.1 points per game, hitting 40 points twice in last 3 games. They’ve hit the Over in 3 straight contests. Boston College is averaging 366 yards and 27.6 points per game, going Over in 5 of their last 6 games. With both teams trending toward high-scoring performances, expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.

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Pitt at SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Pitt at SMU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The 17th-ranked Pitt Panthers (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and 20th-ranked SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0) meet Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Pitt vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Pitt has won all 7 games, including road wins against North Carolina and Cincinnati. It is also 6-1 against the spread (ATS), while scoring 28 or more points in 6 of its 7 outings. The defense has limited the opposition to 17 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games, with the Under cashing in 3 straight.

SMU turned the ball over 6 times last week at Duke, posting a minus-6 differential, but it still picked up a 28-27 OT win. However, it failed to cover as an 11-point favorite, halting a 4-0 ATS run. The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for the Mustangs, too.

– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Pitt at SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pitt +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pitt +7.5 (-120) | SMU -7.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pitt at SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 29, Pitt 24

Moneyline

SMU (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough reward, especially against a Pitt (+240) team which is unbeaten to date.

AVOID, and let’s look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

Play PITT +7.5 (-120), which is quite a lot of points for an unbeaten team to catch. The hook might be very important, too.

SMU -7.5 (+100) just turned it over 6 times last week at Duke, but found a way to win. If the Mustangs are that mistake-prone against the unbeaten Panthers, Pitt will leave the Metroplex with a convincing victory.

As it stands, the Panthers are a strong play, as they’re 6-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 ATS in both previous road contests.

On the flip side, the only loss for the Mustangs came at home Sept. 6 against BYU, 18-15, as 12.5-point favorites.

Over/Under

UNDER 56.5 (-105) is a decent play in this huge ACC clash with conference championship game implications.

The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for SMU, so be careful. However, the SMU defense has allowed 18 or fewer points in 4 of the past 7 outings.

For Pitt, the Under is on a 3-0 roll, with the defense allowing just 14.0 points per game in the previous 2 contests. Don’t be surprised if this one is a lot more defensive than many expect.

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SMU at Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s SMU at Duke odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The SMU Mustangs (6-1, 3-0 ACC) meet the Duke Blue Devils (6-1, 2-1) in a Saturday night ACC battle in Durham. The contest at Wallace Wade Stadium will kick off at 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around SMU vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Southern Methodist is No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Mustangs roll into Durham on a 4-game win streak and have scored 45.5 points per game (PPG) over that stretch. SMU is playing its 3rd straight game on the road.

Duke has ridden close-game results to its fine midseason mark. The Blue Devils — whose 17.3 PPG allowed is the best average in the ACC — are 4-0 in games decided by 1 score.

– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

SMU at Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:33 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: SMU -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Duke +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU -11.5 (-110) | Duke +11.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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SMU at Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 28, Duke 21

Moneyline

Too much juice here. PASS.

Against the spread

Look for Southern Methodist, playing its 3rd road game (with a West Coast trip in that mix) since Oct. 5, to be a fade-worthy candidate in trying to cover by this big number. The Mustangs are plus-7 in turnover margin; they are a plus-6 over their 4-game win streak. And they will be taking on a Duke squad which excels in causing havoc, especially in the front 7. The Devils are solid enough all the way around on defense and should find some turnover and/or field-position success in this night game at home.

On offense, Duke may well need some short fields. But if playing from behind, they are a) at least doing so against an SMU defense that yields a ton of explosive plays, and b) going against a Mustangs defense that has been awful in the red zone. In 21 trips inside the 20, SMU foes have tallied 16 TDs and a pair of field goals.

BACK THE BLUE DEVILS +11.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The Over is 3-1 across SMU’s last 4 games.

On a good-weather night in Durham and with the Blue Devils logging somewhat faster pace-of-play numbers of late, the OVER 48.5 (-115) is worth a sliver of a lean.

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SMU at Louisville odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s SMU at Louisville odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 22 Louisville Cardinals (3-1, 0-0 ACC) welcome the SMU Mustangs (4-1, 1-0) to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Louisville is No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Cardinals beat Austin Peay 62-0 to kick off the season and won each of their first 3 games by 12 or more points. Louisville lost its lone competitive game of the season 31-24 to the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 5, closing as a 6.5-point underdog.

SMU beat the Florida State Seminoles 41-26 in Week 5, covering as a 6-point home favorite. The Mustangs have rallied off 2 straight wins, scoring a total of 108 points in the victories. Their lone loss of the season was an 18-15 home defeat to No. 19 BYU, failing to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. SMU is 3-2 ATS on the season and 1-0 ATS in conference play.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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SMU at Louisville odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 4:29 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): SMU +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Louisville -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU +6.5 (-105) | Louisville -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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SMU at Louisville picks and predictions

Prediction

Louisville 31, SMU 27

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no good value on the moneyline. While the Cardinals (-250) should come out on top, they’re too expensive to play straight up. Avoid a moneyline play, and look to the spread for value.

Against the spread

BET SMU +6.5 (-105).

The Cardinals don’t have a player that, through 4 games, has more than 300 rushing yards. They prefer to attack opponents through the air, and SMU allows the 11th-lowest opponents’ completion rate at 53.3%. The Cardinals may struggle to consistently move the ball that way.

Louisville is also coming off a loss in its first game with a spread of 7 or fewer points. The Mustangs have exceeded betting expectations as of late, winning in Week 5 by 26 and Week 4 by 24, closing as 6-point favorites and 1.5-point underdogs, respectively.

Expect that trend to continue, and back SMU +6.5 (-105).

Over/Under

BET OVER 56.5 (-110).

Both teams like to move the ball and score points. SMU has scored at least 42 points in 3 games and has tallied at least 29 in 4 of 5. The Mustangs are 3-2 O/U and 2-0 O/U in their last 2. The Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in 3 of 4 games and gone Over in 3 of 4 as well.

Louisville allowed 31 points to Notre Dame and 19 the week before to Georgia Tech. It has a competent defense, but that side of the ball has been the bigger weakness for it recently. Couple it all, and take OVER 56.5 (-110).

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