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March Madness: NC State vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s NC State vs. Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The NC State Wolfpack (25-14) and Duke Blue Devils (27-8) meet Sunday in Elite 8 action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from the American Airlines Center is slated for 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. NC State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The 4th-seeded Blue Devils surprised the top seed in the South Region, the 1st-seeded Houston Cougars. Duke won a low-scoring defensive battle 54-51 as the Under (134) was never in question. Now, Duke is the top remaining seed in the South Region.

Duke has won and covered 3 straight games since losing in the ACC Tournament to NC State on March 14. The Wolfpack won that tourney game 74-69 outright as an 11-point underdog as the Under (146) connected. The Blue Devils blasted the Wolfpack 79-64 in the previous meeting on March 4 in Raleigh, covering as a 6-point favorite as the Under (150.5) cashed.

NC State has had an amazing postseason ride, winning 5 games in 5 days at the ACC Tournament to win the title, while winning 8 consecutive outings in the ACC tourney and NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack has covered 6 of the past 7 games, including each of the previous 6 outings as an underdog.

Duke was No. 14 and NC State was unranked in the final USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll of the regular season.

NC State vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): NC State +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Duke -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread: NC State +7.5 (-120) | Duke -7.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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NC State vs. Duke and predictions

Prediction

Duke 72, NC State 67

Moneyline

Duke (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive, especially against a conference rival which knows it well. These teams will be playing for the 3rd time since March 4.

NC State (+300) has been amazing story, but all good things come to an end. Sometimes we get attached to a Cinderella story, but you can’t bet what you might want to happen, you have to use your head. Duke is the better team, and it will show Sunday.

AVOID, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

NC STATE +7.5 (-120) is playing with a lot of confidence. While Duke -7.5 (+100) should be able to get the job done, these teams have split the 2 meetings since March 4, with the Wolfpack winning outright in Washington D.C. as an 11-point underdog on a neutral floor.

The Wolfpack has won and covered each of the past 6 games as an underdog. NC State is also 7-2 ATS in the past 9 games on a neutral floor, too. The Pack is likely to run out of gas, but it should have enough left in the tank to keep it within 4 buckets.

Duke used a suffocating defense to beat Houston, the No. 2 team in the nation, at its own game. Look for the Blue Devils to ride a hot defense to splash cold water on the Pack.

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Over/Under

UNDER 143.5 (-115) is worth a look in this Elite 8 matchup, and ACC rivalry game.

NC State has cashed the Under in 2 of the 3 NCAA tournament games, while allowing 69 or fewer points in 5 of the past 7 postseason outings. The Under has cashed in both meetings with Duke since March 4, too.

For Duke, it has leaned heavily upon its defense to get the job done in the NCAA Tournament, allowing an average of just 51.0 PPG in 3 outings, with the Under going 4-0 in the postseason, and 7-1 in the past 8 games. The Under is 14-3 in the past 17 outings dating back to Jan. 27, too.

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March Madness: Duke vs. Houston odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Duke vs. Houston NCAA Sweet 16 odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Duke Blue Devils (26-8) and Houston Cougars (32-4) meet Friday in Sweet 16 action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from the American Airlines Center is slated for 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The 4th-seeded Blue Devils rolled up a 93-55 win against the 12th-seeded James Madison Dukes in the 2nd round, after coasting by the 13th-seeded Vermont Catamounts 64-47 in the 1st round. Duke has covered both games in the NCAA Tournament, and the Under is 3-0 in the postseason, and 11-2 across the past 13 games.

The top-seeeded Cougars collapsed in the final couple of minutes in the 2nd round against 9-seed Texas A&M, as the Aggies had a flurry of points late to force overtime. Houston hung on for the 100-95 win in the extra session, but it failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite as the Over (135.5) cashed. Houston has averaged 93.0 PPG in 2 NCAA Tournament games, while the Over has cashed in each outing.

Duke was No. 14 and Houston was No. 2 in the final USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll of the regular season.

Duke vs. Houston odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:16 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Duke +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Houston -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread: Duke +3.5 (+100) | Houston -3.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 134.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Duke vs. Houston and predictions

Prediction

Houston 69, Duke 64

Moneyline

Houston (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive. Duke (+155) has been hot lately, winning 13 of the past 17 games outright, including wins over Clemson, who is on to the Elite 8, and NC State, who is in the Sweet 16, also playing Friday.

AVOID, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

HOUSTON -3.5 (-120) is worth a look, as the Cougars are 4-2 ATS in the past 6 games. The offense for the Cougars has been strong lately, going for 82 or more points in 3 of the past 4 postseason games.

Duke +3.5 (+100) won’t go quietly, and it is a tempting play at even-money. Duke is 10-3 ATS in the past 13 games, too. However, the Cougars have a lockdown defense, and will make life awfully tough on Kyle Filipowski and the Blue Devils offense. Houston ranked No. 1 in the regular season with just 56.9 points per game (PPG) allowed, while limiting teams to a 38.3% field-goal percentage, which was No. 2 in the nation.

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Over/Under

UNDER 134.5 (-110) is the lean in this Sweet 16 matchup.

While Houston has had a lockdown defense, it allowed 95 points to Texas A&M in the 2nd round, and the Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games. Still, defense is the name of the game for the Cougars, and will be the difference if it is to advance.

However, it’s Duke driving this Under train, as the Blue Devils have hit the Under in 3 in a row in the postseason, while going 6-1 in the past 7 games, and 11-2 in the previous 13 contests.

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March Madness: James Madison vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s James Madison vs. Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The 12th-seeded James Madison Dukes (32-3) battle the 4th-seeded Duke Blue Devils (25-8) in a 2nd-round South Region matchup Sunday. Tip-off from Barclays Center in Brooklyn is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the James Madison vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

James Madison knocked off 5th-seeded Wisconsin 72-61 in the 1st round Friday to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. G Terrence Edwards Jr. scored a team-high 14 points, and 4 JMU players scored in double figures. The Dukes shot 41.1% from the field in the win.

Duke, which is ranked No. 14 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, took down 13th-seeded Vermont 64-47 Friday to cover as an 11.5-point favorite. F Mark Mitchell and G Jared McCain each scored a team-high 15 points and were 2 of 4 Duke players to score in double figures. The Blue Devils shot 42.2% from the field in the win.

James Madison vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:45 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): James Madison +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Duke -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): James Madison +7.5 (-110) | Duke -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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James Madison vs. Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

James Madison 70, Duke 69

Moneyline

BET JAMES MADISON (+250).

While Duke is the better team overall, James Madison has been playing its best basketball of the season. The Dukes have won 14 games in a row and present a tough matchup for the Blue Devils.

While Duke stepped up in a big way on defense Friday, offensively it had to rely on a few key players to get the job done. C Kyle Filipowski grabbed 12 rebounds in the win, but was nowhere to be seen on the offensive side of the ball.

Duke will not be able to get away with the lack of ball movement it showed against Vermont, and if James Madison can stick around early, it will put Duke on upset alert quickly.

Against the spread

PASS.

There is better value on the Dukes’ moneyline.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 148.5 (-115).

Both Duke and James Madison hit the Under in their 1st-round matchups with each team holding its opponent to 61 or fewer points.

For JMU to stay in the game, it will have to control the pace, which will result in fewer scoring opportunities from both sides. While you can expect Duke to try to get out and push the ball, the Dukes displayed their defensive abilities in their upset win over Wisconsin.

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March Madness: Vermont vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Vermont vs. Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The 13th-seeded Vermont Catamounts (28-6) battle the No. 4 seed Duke Blue Devils (24-8) Friday in the 1st Round of the South Region. Tip from Barclays Center in Brooklyn is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Vermont vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Vermont is on a 10-game win streak after taking down UMass Lowell 66-61 Saturday in the America East Tournament title game. However, the Catamounts failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites, marking the 4th consecutive game they didn’t cover the spread. G Shamir Bogues scored a team-high 15 points, leading 4 Vermont players in double figures, but the Catamounts only shot 35.6% from the field in the win.

Duke enters on a 2-game skid, recently getting upset as an 11-point favorite by NC State 74-69 in an ACC quarterfinal March 14. The Blue Devils lost despite C Kyle Filipowski scoring a game-high 28 points with a team-best 14 rebounds.

Duke is ranked No. 14 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Vermont vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Vermont +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | Duke -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Vermont +11.5 (+100) | Duke -11.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 132.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Vermont vs. Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 72, Vermont 57

Moneyline

PASS.

There is no value on Duke (-900), who has a net rating of 10, to beat Vermont, who has a net rating of 102. It’s just not wise to risk 9 times the potential profit here.

Against the spread

BET DUKE -11.5 (-120).

As mentioned, Vermont is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 outings, and is 14-18 ATS for the season. Scoring 68 points or fewer in 4 of its last 6 games, Vermont does not have the firepower to keep up with Duke.

The Blue Devils are 18-14 ATS this season, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Their strong point is their defense, which has allowed 64 or fewer points in 3 of its last 5 games. That will be the key factor in Duke covering here.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 132.5 (-110).

While this is a statistically low total, the Catamounts have a 9-23 O/U record this season, while the Blue Devils are 13-19 O/U.

Both teams have identical 2-8 O/U showings in their last 10 games with Vermont hitting the Under in 5 of its last 6 and Duke hitting the Under in 4 of its last 5. The Catamounts’ lack of offense combined with the Blue Devils’ defense is a perfect recipe for the Under.

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North Carolina at Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s North Carolina at Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6, 16-3 ACC) take on the No. 8 Duke Blue Devils (24-6, 15-4) Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Tip is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

UNC, No. 7 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has won 5 straight after an 84-51 haymaker to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Tuesday. G RJ Davis had 22 points and 6 assists. F Armando Bacot had 14 points and was 2-for-2 from behind the arc. Bacot had a huge game in the 93-84 home win over Duke Feb. 3 with 25 points, 10 boards and 5 assists.

Duke, No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has only lost twice in the last 13 games. It covered as a 6-point favorite in a 79-64 victory over NC State Monday. G Jeremy Roach had 21 points but shot just 1-for-7 from deep. He is just 1-for-11 (9.1%) from behind the arc in his last 2 games.

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North Carolina at Duke odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Duke -194 (bet $194 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +4.5 (-110) | Duke -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 150.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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North Carolina at Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 76, Duke 72

Moneyline

Duke is 15-2 at home, but UNC has won 3 of the last 4 meetings at Cameron. C Kyle Filipowski hasn’t been the same since the infamous knee injury after the loss to Wake Forest. He has been held below double figures in 3 of the 6 games since then. Roach is struggling from deep, and the Tar Heels are really humming right now.

Take NORTH CAROLINA +160.

Against the spread

Even if UNC can’t get it done, I still like it to cover this spread. UNC is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Duke. UNC covered in the 9-point victory at its house as a 5-point favorite.

Take NORTH CAROLINA +4.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

Duke is just 2-8 O/U over the last 10 games while UNC is 4-6. They take it to another level when facing one another, though, as the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. After 177 points in the 1st meeting, this OVER 150.5 (-110) looks like easy money.

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Duke at NC State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Duke at NC State odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 10 Duke Blue Devils (23-6, 14-4 ACC) head to Raleigh to take on the NC State Wolfpack (17-12, 9-9 ACC) Monday night. Tipoff at PNC Arena is set for 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. NC State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

This is the 1st and only regular season meeting between these schools. Last year, NC State whooped Duke 84-60 at home, a game that is on C Kyle Filipowski’s mind as the Blue Devils “don’t want to be embarrassed like that again.”

Duke coasted to a 73-48 victory over Virginia at home in their last game, cashing easily as a 10-point favorite. In 7 of their last 8 games, Duke has covered ATS and the game has gone Under the total. The only outlier was the 83-79 loss to Wake Forest, which went Over the 150.5 total with the Demon Deacons covering the 3 points they were laying.

NC State has lost 3 of their last 4 games. Although, they were able to cover the 10-point spread against No. 9 UNC this past Saturday in Chapel Hill. The Wolfpack fell 79-70, blowing an 8-point halftime lead by shooting a paltry 22% from the field in the 2nd half.

– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Duke at NC State odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Duke -255 (bet $255 to win $100) | NC State +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Against the spread (ATS): Duke -5.5 (-118) | NC State +5.5 (-104)
Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Duke at NC State picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 77, NC State 70

Moneyline

G Tyrese Proctor went 6-for-8 from the field in the 25-point win over UVA, but coach Jon Scheyer was quick to point out the sophomore’s defensive prowess as he limited UVA’s top 3-point shooter Isaac McKneely. Expect the same intensity from the 2-way guard as he defends the Wolfpack scoring threats.

Pairing the Blue Devils (-255) with Baylor (-280) at home vs. Texas comes out to -114.

So PARLAY DUKE ML +BAYLOR ML (-114).

Against the spread

PASS.

Lean would be Duke, but it’s senior night at PNC Arena, and the Wolfpack have won 3 of the last 4 matchups against the Blue Devils in Raleigh.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 149.5 (-115).

North Carolina is the only ACC school that has surrendered fewer points in their last 3 games (61.7 average) than Duke (63.3). In those contests against Wake Forest, Louisville and UVA respectively, Duke averaged 64.4 possessions per game. Only 17 D1 schools out of 362 played at a slower pace during that stretch. The Blue Devils are also the worst free-throw shooting team in the conference (69.6%).

For NC State, F DJ Burns Jr., who averages 11.6 points per game, has just 6 in his last 2 outings combined. Wolfpack coach Kevin Keatts mentioned after the loss to UNC that not having Burns Jr. in the game to facilitate hurt them as the senior dealt with foul trouble. That may be the case once again as Filipowski and F Mark Mitchell will be a handful in the paint.

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Virginia at Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Virginia at Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Virginia Cavaliers (21-8, 12-6 ACC) and Duke Blue Devils (22-6, 13-4) meet Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Virginia vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cavaliers topped Boston College on the road last time out Wednesday, winning 72-68 as 1-point favorites as the Over (126) cashed. It snapped a 2-game skid and an 0-4 against-the-spread (ATS) nosedive. The Over also halted a 3-game run to the Under.

This is the 1st time these teams have met at Cameron since Feb. 7, 2022, a 69-68 win by UVA as an 11-point underdog as the Over (128.5) cashed. The Hoos have been a thorn in the side of the Dukies. They’ve gone 2-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS in the past 4 trips to Durham and 6-3 ATS in the past 9 in the series.

The Blue Devils recovered from that ugly 83-79 loss at Wake Forest where the Deacs fans stormed the court and C Kyle Filipowski was involved in a post-game shoving incident and apparent injury. He played against Louisville Wednesday, and Duke took out its aggression on the poor Cardinals in an 84-59 win and cover as a 20.5-point favorite.

Duke enters 6-1 ATS in the past 7 games, while the Under is 6-1 in the span. The lone non-cover and Over result was against Wake Forest in the upset loss.

Duke is No. 10 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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Virginia at Duke odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Virginia +365 (bet $100 to win $365) | Duke -490 (bet $490 to win $100)
Against the spread: Virginia +9.5 (-114) | Duke -9.5 (-106)
Over/Under (O/U): 124.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Virginia at Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 65, Virginia 58

Moneyline

Duke (-490) will cost you nearly 5 times your potential return, and that’s quite risky considering how tough Virginia (+365) has played it, especially at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

This figures to be a defensive grind all day long, and Duke will do well just to get the victory outright against the offensively-challenged, but defensively-gifted Hoos.

PASS.

Against the spread

VIRGINIA +9.5 (-114) always seems to play its best when it sees Duke -9.5 (-106) on the floor. The Cavaliers have cashed in 6 of the past 9 meetings in this series while going 3-1 ATS in the past 4 trips to Durham in front of the Cameron Crazies.

While UVA is just 1-4 ATS in the past 5 outings, it is a respectable 7-5-1 ATS across the previous 13. In addition, it is 5-1 ATS in the past 6 road games, too.

For Duke, it is 6-1 ATS in the past 7 outings, so it won’t be easy for Virginia. But again, the Cavaliers always seem to play the Blue Devils tough, and Duke is just 4-3 ATS in the past 7 at home.

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Over/Under

UNDER 124.5 (-115) is a low number, but it’s the lean in this ACC rivalry game.

We’ve seen Duke cash the Under in 6 of the past 7 games, and the total has gone low in each of the past 5 outings in front of the home fans.

Virginia has hit the Under in 3 of the past 4 outings, including 2 games from Feb. 19-24 which saw the Cavaliers average just 42.5 PPG.

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Duke at Louisville odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke at Louisville odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Duke Blue Devils (5-2, 2-1 ACC) and Louisville Cardinals (6-1, 3-1) meet Saturday at Cardinal Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Blue Devils are looking to bounce back after a 38-20 setback at Florida State, and Duke has now lost and failed to cover the spread in 2 of the past 3 games. The defense allowed a season-high point total, too, after having allowed just 59 total points in the 1st 6 games combined.

The big news for Duke is QB Riley Leonard (ankle) is a question mark. The line moved from 4 to 6.5 at some shops due to the injury news, as he aggravated a previous injury in his return at Florida State last weekend.

The Cardinals are looking to rebound after suffering a 38-21 loss at Pittsburgh last time out on Oct. 14. The 38 points allowed by the Cardinals were also a season high, and Louisville had conceded 20 or fewer points in 4 of the previous 5 outings.

Duke is No. 21 and Louisville is No. 18 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

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Duke at Louisville odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Duke +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Louisville -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Duke +6.5 (-115) | Louisville -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Duke at Louisville picks and predictions

Prediction

Louisville 25, Duke 17

Moneyline

Louisville (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk and not enough reward in a game expected to be very close.

AVOID, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

LOUISVILLE -6.5 (-110) is the lean, but go very lightly. This should be a 1-score game, and a defensive battle. If Leonard is officially ruled out, go with the Cardinals a little more aggressively.

The Cardinals lead the all-time series 3-0, but these teams have met just twice as members of the ACC. Louisville pounded Duke 62-22 on Nov. 18, 2021, in a Thursday game in Durham, but the Blue Devils are much, much better defensively in 2023.

This will be a nail-biter for side bettors all the way until the clocks reach zeroes.

Over/Under

UNDER 45.5 (-110) is the way to go, as both of these defenses have been strong all season, sans the last game each played. If Leonard is a game-time decision, and he is not able to go, this could end up being quite a value.

The Under is 1-1-1 in 3 home games for Louisville, while hitting in the most recent game at Cardinal Stadium against Notre Dame.

The Over has actually cashed in each of the team’s 2 road games, including last time out at FSU. The side and the total should both be close shaves Saturday.

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Duke at Florida State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles odds and lines, with college football expert picks and predictions.

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The No. 17 Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 2-0 ACC) and No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (6-0, 4-0) tangle Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Blue Devils came off a bye week to beat N.C. State 24-3 last Saturday. Duke has exhibited a decent run game (198.5 yards per game) and a staunch defense. It has held foes to 14 points or fewer in each win and is allowing only 9.8 points per game (4th in FBS).

Florida State sports a more versatile offense. The Seminoles rank 12th in yards per rush (5.5), but they’ve also managed 272.0 passing YPG (36th). Last Saturday, FSU cranked out 535 total yards in a 41-3 win over Syracuse. The ‘Noles take the field in this contest with a 21-0 all-time record against Duke.

Florida State is No. 4 and Duke is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

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Duke at Florida State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:12 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Duke +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Florida State -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Duke +14.5 (-110) | Florida State -14.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Duke at Florida State picks and predictions

Prediction

Florida State 34, Duke 17

Moneyline

No lean and no interest wading through the amount of juice between these prices. PASS.

Against the spread

Since 1995, FSU is 12-5 ATS in this series. But figure this one as highly probable to land in the Seminoles-by-13-to-20 bucket. Your fellow bettors have this one surrounded. Move along.

STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

Duke has hit the Over in its last 4 road games (+4.00 units, 91% ROI). Florida State has hit the Over in 7 of its last 8 games at home (+5.90 units, 67% ROI).

The last meeting was in 2020, and the ‘Noles won that one 56-35. This one should involve more defense, but the Over is still a likable play.

Duke’s diversity on 1st down plays them to enough of an advantage, and that’s how they can counteract FSU’s competency on pass defense.

Both teams excel in turning redzone trips into touchdowns. Both play at relatively slow paces, but the tempo for each has picked up in recent weeks. So, look for a final tally with a good enough chance to reach the mid-to-high 50s.

The total here looks to be highly influenced by a couple recent games on each side. Those contests are rife with awful 3rd-down performances and untimely drive-ending turnovers.

On a benign-weather evening in Tallahassee, BACK THE OVER 49.5 (-110).

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First look: Duke at Florida State odds and lines

Looking at Saturday’s Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles college football odds, lines and trends. Here’s what you need to know.

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The Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 2-0 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (6-0, 4-0) tangle Saturday in Tallahassee. Kickoff in the Atlantic Coast Conference battle at Doak Campbell Stadium is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at Duke vs. Florida State odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Also see: SportsbookWire’s college football picks and predictions.

Duke is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. The Blue Devils came off a bye week to beat N.C. State 24-3 on Saturday. Duke has exhibited a decent run game (198.5 yards per game) and a staunch defense. It has held foes to 14 points or less in each win and allows only 9.8 points per game (4th-best in the nation), and its 4.5 yards allowed per play ranks 11th in the nation.

No. 4 Florida State sports a more versatile offense. The Seminoles rank 12th in yards per rush (5.5), but they’ve also managed 272.0 passing YPG (36th). On Saturday, FSU cranked out 535 total yards in a 41-3 win over Syracuse.

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Duke at Florida State odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 6:55 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Duke +480 (bet $100 to win $480) | Florida State -690 (bet $690 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Duke +13.5 (-102) | Florida State -13.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 49 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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2023 betting stats

ML: Duke 5-1 | Florida State 6-0
ATS: Duke 4-2 | Florida State 4-2
O/U: Duke 2-3-1 | Florida State 4-2

Duke vs. Florida State head-to-head

Duke and FSU will meet for the 22nd time and the Seminoles have never lost to Duke. They lead the series 19-0 (wins in 2006-07 were vacated) and all but 4 of those games have been decided by margins of 3 scores or more. Since 1995, FSU is 12-5 ATS.

The last meeting was in 2020 and the ‘Noles won 56-35.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire

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