It’s only an early forecast, but the 2024 NFL draft is looking awfully challenging for the New Orleans Saints. A unique blend of hurdles has created a draft class that’s heavier at the top than we’ve seen in quite some time.
As observed by Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy, a perfect storm of college NIL funds and extra years of eligibility from the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in more players staying in school than ever before. That’s backed up by research from ESPN’s Jordan Reid, who found that the 54 early entrants in the 2024 class is almost half of the number who declared for the draft back in 2018 (106).
And the consequence of that for NFL teams, Nagy continued, is a draft class that thins out quickly after the first four rounds. The Senior Bowl’s internal big board of draft prospects “fell apart” in rounds five through seven, Nagy said, which leads him to expect teams to either trade away those late-round picks or be left picking players who wouldn’t have draftable grades.
Now, a quick aside: teams often select players in the final rounds who they have graded as priority free agents. It’s typical for grades to level out after the top-100 or so prospects. So there isn’t much of a difference in grades for players picked in the sixth round and those who sign undrafted free agent contracts; it’s not unusual for position coaches and area scouts to argue their case in the draft-day war room.
But if this drop-off is worse than usual, as Nagy expects, it’s going to be a big problem for the Saints. Right now New Orleans owns two picks in the first two rounds and four selections in the last three rounds (five, six, and seven). All three of the compensatory draft picks they’re projected to get for losing David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport, and Kaden Elliss last year are fifth rounders, too. So seven of their nine picks would fall in that danger zone Nagy is describing.
Of course there’s an easy solution here: package those picks together and trade up early in the draft. That’s often been the strategy for Saints general manager Mickey Loomis, who has talked up that “quantity over quality” approach before. The problem is that it narrows the margin for error and puts a ton of pressure on the players selected.
Look at the Saints’ 2020 draft class. They ended up picking just four players, and it’s possible just one of them remains on the team in a few months. The Saints talked themselves into trading up for every player they picked that year but either had to move them out of position — asking Cesar Ruiz to play right guard instead of center, and teaching Zack Baun to play in space as a coverage linebacker as opposed to a pass rusher — or moved on after the player proved to be a poor fit. That was the case for tight end Adam Trautman. Quarterback Tommy Stevens wasn’t able to move to tight end, either, and he left town without ever being given a shot to do what he did in college.
That can’t be the approach in 2024. If the Saints see a need to trade up over and over again and load up with early- and mid-round picks, great; they just can’t waste those selections on projects and conversions or players with extensive injury history. Go find prospects with a clear vision for helping the team and let them do what they do best. The draft is a crapshoot for any team, but the Saints sometimes make it harder on themselves than it needs to be. And this year’s event looks like one that could tempt their worst instincts.
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