The Philadelphia Phillies (81-76), after a series-opening loss, hope to even things up and pull closer to the division lead against the Atlanta Braves (84-72). First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.64 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 174 2/3 IP.
- Has won his last two starts, although he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates his last time out.
- Is 1-1 with a 4.44 ERA over 24 1/3 innings across four starts against the Braves this season.
Braves LHP Max Fried (13-7, 3.12 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 158 2/3 IP.
- Has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start since July 23.
- Has won six straight decisions; the Braves have won his last four starts and nine of his last 10.
Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
The Phillies are 9-8 against the Braves this season. They have lost two games in a row but have won nine of their last 13 games.
The Braves, though, are hotter. They have won four games in a row and eight of their last nine, and now lead the Phillies by 3.5 games in the division with five games remaining in the regular season.
Fried is pitching extremely well right now and, while the Braves have lost his two starts this season against Philly, he will shut down their bats tonight.
Take the BRAVES (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Phillies are 74-82 ATS overall and 38-38 ATS on the road.
The Braves are 75-81 ATS but have the league’s worst home ATS record at 25-50 ATS. Atlanta is 9-8 ATS against Philadelphia this season and has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.
It will be a close game with the division on the line. Take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-175).
Over/Under (O/U)
Eight of the 17 games between the two teams have had totals of 9 or more runs.
The Phillies’ last three games had fewer than 9 runs and so have nine of their last 11 games.
Four of the Braves’ last 10 games had 9 or more runs and only one of Fried’s last five starts has finished with 9 or more runs.
Take UNDER 8.5 (-125).
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