Tag: Phillies Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-19) play the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East series Friday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 and heads into Friday’s game on a 5-game road losing skid. The Phillies are just 2-9 away from home since April 30.

The Braves won 11 of 19 games vs. the Phils last season. Atlanta has lost just 1 season series against Atlanta since 2018.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Jared Shuster

Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start this season. He owns a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate 1.010 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
  • Gets a lot of ground balls but has been hurt by an 18.6% home run/fly ball rate

Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.

  • Facing a Philadelphia club that owns a whiff-laden .704 OPS vs. lefties (.757 OPS vs. righties)
  • The 24-year-old rookie went past 5 innings for the 1st time in his big league career last time out, logging 6 innings of 1-run ball vs. the Seattle Mariners Sunday

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-138) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — may well be a couple of games or so too far out over their skis.

Philly is a lean, but look to the Run Line for better value.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-138).

The pricing here makes for some leverage, partially because Atlanta plays a lot of 1-run games.

The Phillies are averaging 4.30 runs per game (RPG), down from the 4.61 RPG they averaged a year ago. Philadelphia’s offense in recent losses has been overly impacted by poor numbers in clutch at-bats.

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Over/Under

This figure is predictably close to where the season averages — runs for and against — intersect. It is a fair number here: PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-26) and Atlanta Braves (30-19) swing into a 4-game NL East series Thursday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Atlanta won 11 of 19 meetings in 2022

Philadelphia is looking to snap a 4-game road losing streak. The Phillies are just 2-8 away from home since April 30.

The Braves are continuing a homestand that has thus far seen them go 3-3. Atlanta has been better on the road this season, going 17-7. The club is just 13-12 at home.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Dylan Dodd

Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 11th start. He owns a 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .796 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .939 OPS against southpaws and a .725 figure against right-handers

Dodd (2-1, 6.46 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has notched a 1.83 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 4.1 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.

  • Being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett for this start; last pitched in the majors on May 4
  • A 25-year-old rookie who has pitched a total of 33 2/3 innings at Triple-A

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -106 (bet $106 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: -102)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

Atlanta — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — figures as a couple of games or so too far out over their skis. With Dodd on the mound, the Braves are vulnerable.

Philly has not been great against southpaws, but the club’s .684 OPS against left pitching is weighed down by a .281 batting average on balls in play. Nola is a consistent sort giving solid value to the PHILLIES (-106) line.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. The pricing here is not too competitive.

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Over/Under

Support numbers make for a somewhat bullish view of both bullpens. The price here is decent. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 9 (-102).

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NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Wednesday at 4:35 p.m. ET (FOX) at Truist Park in Game 2 in the best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0; the Braves won regular-season series 11-8

Philadelphia opened a 6-1 lead through 4 innings and held on to take Tuesday’s opener 7-6. The Phillies banged out 5 doubles among 12 hits and are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. The downside to the Braves rally in Tuesday’s game is that the back end of the Philly pen was heavily leveraged to get to the finish line.

The Braves went 13-1 in their last 14 home games in the regular season, and Tuesday’s setback came after being idle for 5 days. Atlanta did manage to rally and make things interesting. The Braves hit multiple home runs for their 8th time in their last 12 games. Over that stretch, Atlanta has logged a .799 OPS.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) logged a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP in 26 regular-season starts.

  • Kept the St. Louis Cardinals off the scoreboard in Friday Wild Card Series game: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K
  • Including the postseason, has allowed just 1 run in his last 21 1/3 IP
  • Owns a 2.38 ERA in his last 5 starts against Atlanta

Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA) had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 180 1/3 IP in 30 starts in the regular season.

  • Faced Philadelphia 2 starts back (Sept. 24) and allowed 2R in 5 1/3 IP
  • Had 2.84 in 3 starts vs. Phillies in the regular season
  • Posted a 2.86 ERA in 103 2/3 IP at home this season

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -140 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-180) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler was sharp in his postseason debut last week and makes this start on a preferred 4-day rest interval. He’s been a solid 3rd-time-through-the-oder guy who can perhaps lighten the load on the Philly bullpen just a tad.

Wright has a short 4-game postseason pitching record. It’s filled with a few too many walks and not many multi-inning stretches of dominance. Statcast quality-of-contact analytics are bearish on his 3.19 surface ERA.

Bet PHILADELPHIA (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Phils were outscored by just 3 runs (88-85) in the regular-season series.

A line watch might be in order: A play on the Phillies +1.5 could make sense now at -180 after it was at -190.

Over/Under

The overall team-vs.-team analytics view of this series would tilt toward the Under. Tuesday’s lefty-lefty match-up — a platoon edge for both teams — and the overvalued mound particulars, and to some extent, Atlanta’s layoff, made the Over a strong play (and it hit with ease).

Wednesday’s game falls into more neutral conditions, but it is not priced attractively. AVOID.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Tuesday at 1:07 p.m. ET (FOX). The contest at Truist Park swings the NL East foes into a best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8 and outscored the Phillies 88-85

Philadelphia went 87-75 in the regular season and advanced to this series by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Wild Card Series. The Phillies are 6-3 over their last 9 games away from home including the 2-game sweep of the Cards at Busch Stadium.

The Braves have been idle since the end of the regular season. Atlanta won the NL East with an overall record of 101-61 despite going 23-27 in April-May. The Braves have outscored opponents 65-28 while going 13-1 over their last 14 home games.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) logged a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP across 29 regular-season starts. He did not pitch in the Wild Card Series.

  • Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
  • Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
  • Last pitched Oct. 4 (6 runs allowed over 3 innings at Houston Astros); made 6 regular-season starts on 6 or more days of rest and posted a 2.90 ERA with an improved strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to other rest periods
  • Held Atlanta to a .664 OPS over 5 starts in 2022

Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) logged 30 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 185 1/3 IP.

  • Held Phillies batters to a .692 OPS across 4 starts in 2022
  • Owns a 1.95 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last 60 IP
  • Last pitched Sept. 30 (1 run allowed over 5 innings vs. New York Mets); made 6 starts on 6 or more days of rest and notched a 3.63 ERA.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Respecting the prices here, which reflect the host Braves as an approximate two-thirds proposition.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Braves getting an early lead and working against the soft middle of the Philly bullpen is a plausible angle, but a potentially rusty Atlanta offense works against that too much.

Suarez is making his first career postseason start. Max Fried has pitched in 17 playoff games over the last 4 seasons (2018-21).

Bettors looking to leverage a bit of an Atlanta lean may want to consider a Braves Total Runs Over 3.5 (-150) or Over 4.5 (+112). Both bets could be workable if prices improve a bit.

Over/Under

The lefty-lefty match-up on the mound plays into platoon strengths for both sides. During the regular season, Philadelphia notched a .727 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .769 OPS vs. lefties. The Phillies own the league’s 3rd-best figure (.796 OPS) against southpaws since Aug. 1. Atlanta counters with respective OPS figures of .753 vs. right, .782 vs. left and .771 vs. left since Aug. 1.

Peg both starters as being a tad too far over their skis with their surface numbers. Playoff baseball is still a low-scoring proposition at its core, but the payoff here makes the OVER 7.5 (+100) a strong play.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-63) take on the Atlanta Braves (88-55) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 6-6

The Phillies had a 5-game winning streak snapped Thursday with a 5-3 loss at the Miami Marlins. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the 2nd NL wild-card spot and 8 games behind Atlanta for the top spot.

Atlanta has cooled finally as it has dropped 4 of 5 games. The Braves have fallen 1 game behind the New York Mets for 1st place in the NL East. They’re still 21-9 over the last 30 games despite the skid. Atlanta is 32-15 against left-handed starters, which it’ll face Friday.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 134 1/3 IP.

  • 3 starts against Atlanta this year: 0-2, 5.06 ERA, 16 IP, 16 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 15 K
  • Could be wearing down with a 5.40 ERA over his last 4 starts

Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 IP.

  • 2 starts against Phillies this year: 0-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.8 K/9
  • Has a 1.84 ERA over his last 7 GS

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line

Fried has been too good of late, and he’ll neutralize the Phillies’ left-handed bats. Suarez hasn’t been good of late nor against Atlanta. OF Bryce Harper is hitting .180 with 2 homers in 39 at-bats this month and it’s in the bag if Fried continues to keep him under wraps.

The BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125) is at a suitable price to take.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m leaning toward the Phillies here. They’re 37-31 on the RL on the road and are playing a good brand of baseball. I just think Atlanta has more on the pitching side. LEAN PHILLIES +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under

The wind is blowing in from right-center field at 6 mph on a 79-degree day. Both teams are 5-5 O/U over the last 10. The Over has hit in Suarez’s last 4 starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Atlanta. The OVER 7.5 (-112) sneaks by.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) take on the Atlanta Braves (62-41) Tuesday in the 1st game of a 2-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Phils have won 5 games in a row, and 6 of their last 7, but remain 10 games out in the NL East. On the plus side, OF Bryce Harper had the pins removed from his broken thumb and has begun to ramp up baseball activities. He could be back in a couple of weeks.

The Braves are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks but lost 2 of 3 in Philadelphia before that. The Braves are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East and just acquired RHP Jake Odorizzi from the Houston Astros to help for the stretch run.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Nick Nelson vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Nelson (3-1, 3.94 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 48 IP.

  • Last pitched July 26 and threw 23 pitches. So this may be a 1-2-inning opening effort.
  • Has a 5.12 ERA,1.50 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 on the road vs. 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 at home.

Strider (5-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 12th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 6 K over 6 IP to beat the Phillies July 26 in his last start.
  • Is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 14.3 K/9 across 39 IP at home.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Braves -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 3

Money line

Strider was a beast in July with 3 straight games of 8+ K’s. However, he has tapered off a bit in his last 2 starts. He struck out 6 Phillies in his last start, and I will take STRIDER UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130).  I like the Braves to win, but we’re not touching the -240 ML. LEAN BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread

Four of the Braves’ 5 victories against the Phillies have been by more than 1 run, and 9 of the 10 games this season between these teams have been decided by more than a run. So I’ll LEAN BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Over is 7-2-1 between these teams this year and there have been 9 runs or more scored in 7 of the 10 meetings. It’s 90 degrees in Atlanta with a 7.6-mph breeze to left-center field. With the Phillies going with a bullpen day, let’s LEAN OVER 8.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (21-23) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-24) Thursday in the finale of their 4-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves took a 2-1 series lead by beating the Phillies 8-4 Wednesday following a 6-5 win Tuesday and a 7-3 loss Monday. Atlanta is now 5-5 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and Philly is 3-7 SU in its last 10.

Season series: The Braves lead 2-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Nola is 1-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 7-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP over 5 starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.93 FIP with a .243/.322/.469 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 26.0 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 254 plate appearances (PA).

Wright is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-3, Saturday at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 10.95 FIP with a .278/.513/.708 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 12.5 K% and 89.7 mph EV in 24 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET BRAVES (-115) because I give them the edge in both starting and relief pitching over the Phillies and both lineups have mediocre production thus far.

FanGraphs has Wright as the 9th-best starter in their power rankings while Nola is 23rd, which is still very impressive.

However, 4 of Wright’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV), per Statcast, while just 2 of Nola’s 5 pitches have a minus-RV and Nola struggles in Atlanta.

Nola is 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate (all worse than his career marks) in 10 career starts at Truist Park.

Atlanta’s bullpen is also 1st in FIP (2.87), 3rd in hard-hit rate (35.9%) and 6th in K/BB rate (3.03), according to FanGraphs.Whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.87 FIP (ranked 17th), a 42.0% hard-hit rate (27th) and a 2.02 K/BB rate (29th).

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for Tipico Sportsbook. More than 70% of the bets placed are on Philly’s ML but three-fourths of the cash is on Atlanta’s ML. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money since sharps bet a lot more money than your average Joe.

The BRAVES (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+180) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because this is such a chunky payout and Atlanta is 3-1 SU vs. Nola in their last 4 meetings and all 3 of those wins were by at least 4 runs.

Over/Under

PASS since we are getting to the party way late on the total. Phillies-Braves opened with an 8.5-run total (according to Pregame.com) but has been steamed down by sharp action to the current number.

However, Philly is 3-0-1 O/U in Nola’s last 4 starts, Atlanta is 15-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) face the Atlanta Braves (20-23) Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly won the series opener 7-3 Monday and Atlanta responded with a 6-5 Tuesday to even the series.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Suarez is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 39 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 4-1, at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.77 FIP with a .248/.344/.517 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.3 K% and 93.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 30 plate appearances (PA).

Morton is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 40 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 5-3, Friday at the Miami Marlins with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.51 FIP with a .267/.318/.423 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.1 K% and 87.1 mph EV in 154 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 8, Phillies 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-175) instead of betting 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. Atlanta’s ML opened at -135 but sharp action has steamed it up to the current number, per Pregame.com.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market since more money is on the Braves but more bets have been placed on the Phillies. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more money than your average Joe.

Atlanta also has edges in starting and relief pitching and hit better vs. left-handed pitching than Philly does against righties.

Morton’s pitching peripherals are impressive vs. active Phillies hitters and Morton has a 2.19 ERA in his last 5 starts against Philly. Plus Atlanta’s bullpen is 8th in xFIP (3.61) and Philly’s bullpen is 26th (4.24).

The Braves are 8-6 overall vs. left-handed starters and the Phillies are 12-17 against right-handed pitching. Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wRC+ (105), wOBA (.322) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) against lefties than the Philly lineup’s 100 wRC+, .313 wOBA and 28.6% hard-hit rate vs. righties.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy lean to Braves -1.5 (+120) because they have a 3-edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting. However, there’s some value in the Over, Atlanta is 6-15 RL as a home favorite and Philly is 10-3 RL as a road underdog.

Over/Under

SPRINKLE on the OVER 8.5 (-130) because Atlanta’s ML is my favorite wager in this game.

However, Atlanta is 14-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and 8-0 O/U in Morton’s last 8 starts as a favorite and Philly is 9-4 O/U as a road underdog.

Truist Park also has the 3rd-highest park factor in the MLB, making it very hitter-friendly, the Over has cashed in 11 of the last 15 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and the total has been steamed up by sharp action.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (19-22) host the Philadelphia Phillies (19-22) Monday for the beginning of a 4-game NL East series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Both teams are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.

Philly snapped a 4-game losing skid and prevented a sweep in a 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Sunday.

Atlanta dropped the series finale at the Miami Marlins 4-3 Sunday after winning the first 2 games of the set.

The Braves beat the Phillies 10-9 in last year’s season series and Atlanta outscored Philly by 19 runs in those meetings.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Tucker Davidson

Wheeler is 2-3 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Wednesday with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-2 with a 1.60 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

Davidson is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 2-1 loss June 9 with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Braves +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Braves 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-135) since they have a 2-phase edge over the Braves in hitting and the starting pitching matchup and Philly’s ML has been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp line movement (according to Pregame.com).

Wheeler has found his groove after a slow start to the season and dominated the Braves last year. Since losing his first 3 outings, Wheeler has thrown a quality start in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wheeler has a 3.07 FIP with a 28.1 K% in 192 plate appearances vs. current Phillies batters, per Statcast.

The Phillies are also 7-5 vs. lefty starters with a 115 wRC+ (ranked 8th) and .335 wOBA (ranked 4th) against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.

While the Braves are 11-16 vs. righty starts with a 91 wRC+ (ranked 21st) and a .300 wOBA (ranked 21st) against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup has been ice-cold recently, ranking 24th in wRC+ (90), 20th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in WAR over the last two weeks.

BET the PHILLIES (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Phillies are 1-4 RL as road favorites and the Braves have won their only game as a home underdog. Also, 3 of Philly’s last 4 wins over Atlanta have all been by a single run.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the total has been steamed up even though Atlanta’s lineup has struggled lately and Wheeler has been dominant vs. the Braves and is a legit ace. The Phillies are 8-4 O/U as road underdogs and the Braves are 13-5-2 O/U as home favorites and 8-4-1 O/U vs. NL East foes.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-77) and Atlanta Braves (85-72) meet for a 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday night game at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kyle Gibson is the scheduled starting pitcher for the Phillies. Across 30 games (29 starts) this season, he is 10-8 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 177 2/3 IP with the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

  • Allowed 4 ER over 6 IP in his last start and owns a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts.
  • Owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home but has been saddled with a 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road. Control with a 3.7 BB/9 has been a particular issue in away games.
  • Faces a Braves club which is swung around to its best platoon splits against right-handers with a .761 OPS.

RHP Ian Anderson is the scheduled starter for the Braves. He is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 through 122 1/3 IP over 23 starts.

  • Owns a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts at home.
  • Coming off a seven-inning start at the Arizona Diamondbacks that saw him allow just 1 ER on three base runners.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies scored just 3 combined runs in dropping the first two games of this series. Philadelphia has lost three in a row overall. A division-leading offense that cranked out an .831 OPS from Sept. 15-25 has posted a .390 OPS over the three straight losses.

Atlanta has won five games in a row and nine of its last 10. The Braves have registered 6.0 runs per game on an .802 OPS over that stretch.

For the season, the Phils-Braves series has been an even 9-9 exchange but Atlanta has outscored Philly 84-67. One-run games make for some gray area in looking at both clubs: the Phillies are 30-24 in such games, while the Braves are just 25-30.

With a lean toward Atlanta in a high-scoring game, PASS on the money line and shoot for the Braves getting by on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 27-14 in games decided by 5 or more runs.

BACK ATLANTA -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both starting pitchers have favorable BABIP figures, and they have expected-ERA measures significantly higher than their surface ERAs. Both bullpens have had struggles in the season’s final month.

On a warm night with a decent bit of humidity and with two good offenses that have produced at a high level in big chunks of September games, a higher-than-expected score is the strongest play in this one.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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