Tag: Pac 12

Final 2019 College Football Bowl Projections

Finally, with all of the college football games (aside from Army-Navy) complete, we can look ahead to the bowl season. Teams will find out where they’re going bowling at some point on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t try to tell you where …

Finally, with all of the college football games (aside from Army-Navy) complete, we can look ahead to the bowl season. Teams will find out where they’re going bowling at some point on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t try to tell you where every team will be going. We’ve been patiently tracking rumors and conversations about who will be going where. After patiently dealing with all of the rules and regulations for each conference, here are my best guesses as to every bowl matchup.

Remember: Nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences essentially have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

I will also update these for the next few hours Saturday night if any credible rumors come in.

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Clemson

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will get the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will by far be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4

Oregon steamrolls Utah in first half of Pac-12 championship

The Ducks are ruining Utah’s College Football Playoff plans.

The best chance for the Pac-12 to get a team in the College Football Playoff was for the No. 5 Utah Utes to pull off a convincing win over No. 13 Oregon in Santa Clara, but the Ducks put the Utes in a massive hole in the first half of the Pac-12 Championship with a brilliant performance on both sides of the ball.

After Oregon’s defense forced a turnover on downs to open the game, Ducks QB Justin Herbert led the team on 67-yard touchdown drive on, which was capped by a three-yard rush into the endzone by CJ Verdell.

The Utes Zack Moss’ delivered the offense’s biggest play of the game with a 42-yard rush at the end of the first quarter – but Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley immediately threw an interception on a deep ball to give the ball back to Oregon.

In the second quarter, Herbert extended Oregon’s lead, finding receiver Johnny Johnson III on a 45-yard touchdown pass.

The Utah defense had held opponents to an average of just 11.3 points and 241.6 yards per game. Oregon surpassed both of those totals with time to spare in the second quarter, and went into the locker room with a 20-0 lead.

[vertical-gallery id=875912]

Week 15 College Football Bowl Projections

With just the conference championship games remaining, our Bowl Projections look at how all teams currently stand in the bowl picture.

Welcome to the second-to-last set of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.

I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.

My final set of bowl projections will come out on Saturday night, right after the games end. Those might look very different than these, depending on what happens Saturday. (For example, there are currently two SEC teams in the Playoff. That will almost certainly no longer be true if LSU beats Georgia.)

Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences often have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections on Saturday night will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl and that the Bahamas Bowl will be Buffalo against Charlotte.)

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Clemson
Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Georgia

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so Ohio State will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Georgia will likely be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4

Stanford A Decade Long House of Horrors for Notre Dame

There haven’t been many more painful losses in Brian Kelly’s now ten-year run than what happened to conclude the 2015 regular season.

Forget that.

There haven’t been many more painful losses for Notre Dame in the almost 30 years I’ve been watching as the regular season finale in 2015 was.

The Notre Dame versus Stanford rivalry for The Legends Trophy has had some iconic moments for Notre Dame.

The Goal Line Stand in 2012:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpK7QUG3cbE&w=560&h=315]

Ben Koyack in 2014:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDUvS88s_cY&w=560&h=315]

Dexter Williams 2018 Debut:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZLXify02xY&w=560&h=315]

Unfortunately for Notre Dame these moments have been few and far between in odd-numbered years, when the Irish finish their regular season on the west-coast.

Notre Dame leads the all-time series against Stanford 19-13 (2012 being vacated) but hasn’t won at Stanford since the forgettable 2007 campaign that came to forgiving end with a rather forgettable 21-14 win at Stanford.

We’ve got all week still to get set for a regular season conclusion at Stanford, who has been incredibly disappointing this season, but let’s take a quick moment to look back on the five-straight Notre Dame has lost at Stanford, a trend they hope to finally end in the Brian Kelly era this Saturday.

First up:  2009 – Charlie’s Last Stand

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5, Page 6

What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s fourth rankings

The College Football Playoff selection committee will once again release its rankings on Tuesday. Here’s what to look out for.

As usual, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its rankings on Tuesday night. What should fans be looking for as we enter the final regular-season weekend of college football?

Interestingly enough, we are at a point in the season where there isn’t so much to learn about any team. We know that the top 17 teams are locked in to their spots, though there will obviously be shuffling. We know the contenders and the scenarios they want.

There really aren’t too many hints the committee can send us this week. There are some things to key in on, though, so let’s look at what we can see.

Obviously, there will be meaningless quibbles at the top. Who will be No. 1? Both Ohio State and LSU have very strong resumes and cases for being the top team. Ultimately, though, that won’t matter. Those are the top two, and that status quo will continue as long as each keeps winning. It’s splitting hairs, and it honestly doesn’t matter which way the split goes.

Clemson will also stay at No. 3 and Georgia at No. 4. I would be very surprised if Alabama falls behind Utah, though the committee could be willing to switch that up to send a message about playing late-season cupcakes. Don’t expect that message to be sent, though.

I would say that the committee could tell us something about Oklahoma, but it really can’t. The Sooners will be No. 7 (or maybe No. 8 if Minnesota jumps them, but that seems unlikely). Oklahoma is the team that the committee likely has the most trouble with, as the Sooners are clearly talented but struggling to close out games. Do the voters hold that against Oklahoma? There’s no real way to know, since there’s really no team close enough to Oklahoma to jump over it. If we see a team with a weaker resume, like Florida, Wisconsin, or Michigan–or if we see Penn State stay ahead of Oklahoma–then we’ll know that the committee has a serious problem with the Sooners this year. Again, though, don’t expect that to happen, just based on a complete lack of any team close enough.

A similar situation will occur at the No. 19 and 20 spot. Cincinnati has a far superior resume to Boise State. (In fact, Cincinnati has one of the best overall SOS that we’ve seen from a non-Power 5 team in a long time.) However, the Bearcats are barely squeaking through games, while Boise State is blowing teams out. It shouldn’t matter, as Cincinnati would jump back over the Broncos with a win this week, but it’s one of the few spots that can give us real insight into how the committee views blowout wins over worse teams as opposed to close wins over slightly better teams.

Lastly, see if the committee makes any changes at the bottom. SMU will drop out of the rankings, obviously, and be replaced by either Navy or Virginia Tech. Both of those teams, though, have far stronger resumes than Appalachian State. Will the committee be willing to drop a Mountaineers team that has no real resume and isn’t nearly as good as those two? Or will it keep a team ranked just because it had them there before? This decision, more than any other, will tell us whether the committee is truly willing to look at the resumes anew each week, or whether it’s mostly sticking with what it did last week and sliding teams up or down as necessary.

Week 13 CFP Implications: We know our contenders

With our Week 13 CFP Implications, we are able to look at the College Football Playoff picture with just two weeks to go.

With just two weeks left in the college football season, we usually have a small list of contenders remaining in the College Football Playoff race. The list of contenders is currently at 11, which is slightly above average.

We have 11 contenders for the next two weeks because there are so many teams with one or fewer losses. Two teams with two losses are still in the picture–Wisconsin and Oregon. Oregon essentially needs a miracle to get into the picture, while Wisconsin could have an incredible resume with two more wins.

So, that brings us to where we are now. 11 teams–three from the Big Ten, three from the SEC, two from the Big 12, two from the Pac 12, and Clemson. Wisconsin and Minnesota play an elimination game this week, with the winner moving on to the Big Ten Championship Game. LSU and Georgia will meet in the SEC Championship Game, while Alabama needs a win and then some help to get in. Utah looks in decent position now. And Oklahoma and Baylor can just win and hope the committee starts to like the Big 12 again.

The stage is very clearly set for what should be an intense final two weeks to the college football season. With that said, let’s look at the current Playoff pecking order, and what scenarios could possibly throw things out of whack. What teams are locks if they win out, who needs a little help, who is on the bubble, and who is officially a member of Team Chaos? Let’s look at as many of the potential scenarios as we can.

Next…Current Playoff Picture

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3

Week 13 CFP Eliminator: On the brink of chaos

Our CFP Eliminator is counting down the teams still in the College Football Playoff picture. With only two weeks to go, 12 teams remain.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

There are still plenty of scenarios that can play out over the next two weeks, but we are so close to chaos, and every team remaining in contention can still back its way in. I only eliminated Penn State this week, and only because the wins over Pitt and Indiana got significantly worse. Penn State now only has two quality wins (Iowa and Michigan), which isn’t enough to overcome two losses, even two really good ones.

On the other hand, I didn’t eliminate Oregon. The Ducks could also only have two ranked wins (Utah and USC), but they would also be a conference champion. Oregon’s schedule is also a bit better top-to-bottom. Oregon, though, has no real shot. However, we need so little to get real chaos. If Auburn beats Alabama and Les Miles has one more trick up his sleeve next week, we could be stuck with three undefeated P5 teams and zero one-loss teams. If that happens–and remember, it only really takes chalk plus three upsets (Auburn over Alabama, Kansas over Baylor or Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, then an upset in the Big 12 Championship Game)–then we’re guaranteed a two-loss Playoff team. It won’t be Penn State. It would probably be Georgia if the SEC Championship Game is close. But it could still be Oregon.

And, of course, plenty of other chaos can still happen. Michigan–a team I’m still not sure if I was right to eliminate last week–could beat Ohio State. (If they do, the Wolverines could have Top 15 wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Iowa, with two Top 10 losses.) Or Minnesota can beat Ohio State. LSU could lose one of its last two games, or maybe even both. Clemson has a rivalry game on the road–against a team that already beat Oklahoma. Chaos is coming for us. The only question is where.

Next … What teams are still alive?

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4

Prospects for Jags fans to watch: Oregon QB Justin Herbert

If a new front office comes to Jacksonville, look for the team to keep their eyes on top QB prospect Justin Herbert out of Oregon.

Just three weeks ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars were entering a division rivalry at 4-4 before heading into the bye week. Since, they’ve been blown out two consecutive weeks by their AFC South foes, leading to a lot of frustration among fans — and rightfully so.

Many of those fans are calling for the firing of the front office and coaching staff. While that discussion is for another article, I am here to discuss what could happen if that were to transpire.

If the Jaguars were to let go of their front office and coaching staff, the Jags would have to be looking at a new quarterback in the draft. Usually, when a team hires a new general manager and head coach, a new quarterback soon follows. It would be naive to think any differently for Jacksonville. While the team may be out of range for Louisiana State gunslinger Joe Burrow, they certainly may end up in the range for Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert.

Herbert is a lot of fan’s dream quarterback, checking off just about every box one could have. Herbert brings A+ arm strength and athleticism to the table to go along with his 6-foot-6, 245-pound frame. In many ways, Herbert is comparable to Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. That type of size, arm talent, and athleticism is a rare combination and is why many have drooled over this particular Oregon Duck.

In a crucial final year for the senior quarterback, Herbert has only further solidified himself as an elite prospect. The PAC 12 passer has gone on an absolute tear, leading the Ducks to a 9-1 record and a possible playoff bid. Herbert has completed 70% of his passes on the year, throwing for 2,662 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. With numbers like that, it will be interesting to see if Herbert can lead the Ducks to the playoffs.

Academically, Herbert also checks several boxes and currently has a 4.0 GPA, majoring in biology at Oregon. He has been brilliant on and off the field and also has proven to be a terrific teammate. Simply put, fans wouldn’t have to worry about him off the field.

What does the 6-foot-6 Duck bring to the table as a prospect, though, you ask?

Herbert possesses a lot of desirable traits from an NFL standpoint. As previously mentioned, his arm talent is atop the list. With the Jags having vertical threats like DJ Chark Jr., Herbert would fit right in and could give the Jags’ offense more explosion.

In my opinion, Herbert has the strongest arm in his class and it is easy to notice watching the young signal-caller.

WHEW! That’s a throw some quarterbacks in the league can’t make. Meanwhile, Herbert makes it look easy, not only displaying his arm strength but his accuracy, too. This is the throw that teams will ask prospects to make during workouts and senior days. It appears Herbert will have no trouble making these high difficulty NFL throws and making them look effortless.

At 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, Herbert brings toughness to his game as well. He’s shown the ability to stand in the pocket despite taking some shots in the process.

Herbert is big and strong and shows off his grit on this play above, taking a nice lick before delivering an absolutely beautiful pass to move the chains. One of my favorite characteristics of Blake Bortles was his toughness and Herbert will bring a similar level of selfishness and toughness that many covet and respect. Whether playing through injuries or giving up your body for a play, Herbert will go above and beyond to help his team win.

Lastly, Herbert shows the ability to improvise and make plays when things break down. While he is massive, Herbert is a threat outside of the pocket. He can take off running or extend a play as seen below.

If I had to pick one play to display Herbert as a prospect, it would be this play. The combination of his improvisational skills, arm talent, and ball placement are all on display, showing why he has been such a big name in the scouting world for so long. He may be hindered by his surrounding talent at Oregon, but if a team supports Herbert, he no doubt can become a franchise quarterback. In most classes, Herbert would be the top quarterback.

If he is on the board when Jacksonville is on the clock, I would expect the new front office to take a good, long, hard look at this Duck. At the end of the day, his talent may just be too good to pass up.

Week 13 Ohio State football rooting interests

What should Ohio State football fans root for this weekend? Let’s break it all down, from the SEC to the Pac 12.

Before we get into our third-to-last Rooting Interests of the season, we have to point out exactly what scenarios we are dealing with. With so few weeks left in the season, we can be more precise about the scenarios we’re pinning down. For example, Ohio State has no reason to care if it loses the Michigan game (unless the Buckeyes also lose a second game). Go 12-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan, and the Buckeyes are in. So there’s no need to discuss that. Therefore, when looking an Ohio State’s potential rooting interests this week, recognize that we’re looking at what keeps the Buckeyes in the Playoff if they lose to either Penn State, or against Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.

So, with that conversation out of the way, let’s look at the games. Miami of Ohio’s win over Akron was awful, and probably hurt Ohio State in some of the fancier SOS metrics. That shouldn’t matter much. Nor should Georgia Tech’s win over N.C. State, though it does make Clemson’s weak resume even worse.

As we get to the weekend, don’t bother looking at the SEC games. This is the penultimate week of the regular season, which is now officially called SEC Cupcake Week (trademark pending). The SEC West teams face opponents like Western Carolina, Samford, Abilene Christian, and Arkansas. Texas A&M beating Georgia won’t hurt the Buckeyes, but it does also help Alabama’s resume a bit. Missouri taking out Tennessee won’t mean much, but it would lock Alabama into beating a maximum of two P5 teams with winning records.

If Ohio State wants to stay ahead of Oklahoma (or Baylor, but I think that’s locked in already), root for the Big 12’s overall profile to look weaker. That means West Virginia upsetting Oklahoma State, and Kansas taking out Iowa State if possible. Kansas State losing to Texas Tech probably helps as well. And, of course, either Oklahoma or Baylor losing would go a long way to making this conversation moot; both losing would end the Big 12’s Playoff hopes.

In the ACC, it’s better if Pitt beats Virginia Tech, because that would strengthen Penn State’s overall profile. Virginia losing to Liberty seems unlikely, but would further weaken Clemson’s resume if Virginia reaches the ACC Championship Game by winning next week. Syracuse beating Louisville and Duke beating Wake Forest would also hurt Clemson’s resume. Any gain that Alabama might get from a Duke win is easily offset by what Clemson loses. Then again, Clemson is very likely going 13-0, so it might be too late to root against its resume.

And, of course, there is the Pac 12 to discuss. Washington and USC losing will wipe at any chance of multiple ranked wins by the Pac 12 champion, but at this point it looks like the Buckeyes might need a loss by either Utah or Oregon (or both) to feel safe about staying in front of a Pac 12 champion.

At night, Cincinnati gets a national spotlight against Temple. The Bearcats have really struggled the past few weeks, and they need to impress if they want their ranking to move back up. Also in the AAC, it’s probably a little better if SMU beats Navy, but that doesn’t matter too much. Lastly, keep an eye on Conference-USA. FAU should have no trouble with UTSA, but if the Buckeyes want three nonconference opponents that win their conferences (or divisions), Marshall has to lose a game. That means either this week at Charlotte or next week at home against FIU. Neither of those upsets is impossible, but they are upsets.

Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games

Pages: Page 1, Page 2

What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s third rankings

With the CFP selection committee coming out with new rankings Tuesday night, let’s look ahead to what they might say on certain issues.

Usually I can use this space to highlight a few questions the committee can answer with its rankings. We can use them to determine how the committee judges SOS, what it values, etc. Last week, for example, I pointed out that what the committee seems to value most this year is whether a team blows bad teams out or not. And, certainly, it will be important to see if that trend stands.

As always, I am sure that we’ll have plenty to glean from the committee’s rankings. However, the odd trajectory of this season means that we won’t be able to look forward to anything before we see the rankings.

How does the committee value real quality wins? Well, other than LSU and Ohio State, no team has more than one top quality win. Teams like Penn State, Georgia, and Michigan have two good wins, but no one has a real collection there.

As I pointed out in CFP Implications this week, there are 17 teams that have basically locked themselves into the top positions this year. Those 17 will be the committee’s top 17 as well. Splitting hairs among those 17, though, is exactly that–splitting hairs. Will Iowa and Auburn be at the bottom due to their three losses? Probably, though maybe Auburn can sneak ahead of the Wisconsin-Michigan-Notre Dame trio.

Among those 17 teams, there are plenty of reasonable things for the committee to do. And we will certainly learn something from the rankings, and–more importantly this week than in previous weeks–how Rob Mullens explains the rankings. Oklahoma’s placement will teach us a lot, as will Minnesota’s and Penn State’s. But I can’t particularly warn you what to look for, because none of the committee’s choices are particularly binary.

This week, it’s more important to listen. The committee has constantly kept to head-to-head results this year. Will that remain true with Minnesota and Penn State? Will the Gophers stay ahead of Penn State by not falling at all–or will Penn State be forced to drop so as to remain behind Minnesota? Then again, with the emphasis this committee places on dominating games, maybe Penn State will fall a spot or two anyway for struggling against Indiana.

Next … The bottom

Pages: Page 1, Page 2