How much could Brandon Aiyuk be seeking in a new contract with the 49ers?

We have a report on what kind of contract Brandon Aiyuk is looking for from the #49ers.

The 49ers aren’t eager to trade wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, but there are certainly scenarios that may force them to do so. One of those scenarios is one where Aiyuk demands a contract extension too far beyond what the 49ers are willing to pay. According to a report from the San Francisco Chronicle’s Michael Silver, that scenario may be landing on the table just ahead of the NFL draft, which is set to begin Thursday.

Silver gave the first indication of just how far apart the 49ers and Aiyuk might be on money. Via Silver:

Aiyuk, as per the terms of his rookie deal, is scheduled to play on the ‘fifth-year option’ in 2024, which would pay him $14.1 million. Sources around the league believe he is seeking a contract with an annual average of well over $25 million and that the 49ers have been reluctant to meet that price.

This isn’t great news, but it’s also not necessarily a sign that the 49ers are for sure trading Aiyuk during the first round of this year’s draft. If he’s not dealt by Thursday, it’s hard to believe he’ll be moved at all.

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However, a negotiation that’s mostly gone on privately could get contentious if the 49ers are sitting firm in the realm of $25 million per year – a number commensurate with the deal WR DeVonta Smith got from the Philadelphia Eagles this month. Smith and Aiyuk have had virtually identical production over the last three years. If Aiyuk is looking for something like $27 million, it would make him the NFL’s third-highest-paid receiver behind Miami’s Tyreek Hill and Las Vegas’s Davante Adams, and just ahead of the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, per Over the Cap.

An average of $28 million per year would put Aiyuk on the same level as Adams, and anything more than that would put him alone behind Hill, who averages $30 million per year.

On the other hand, a $25 million-per-year extension would put Aiyuk at the same AAV as Smith and Eagles WR A.J. Brown. It’d also put him ahead of Seahawks WR DK Metcalf ($24 million) and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel ($23.85 million).

This is where things could get messy since so much of an extension is projection. Aiyuk may dig his heels in on being one of the top three highest-paid WRs because his belief is that he will hold that type of value for the 49ers over the next few seasons. Meanwhile the 49ers will look at his numbers against those of Metcalf, Smith and Brown and determine that a deal in the $25 million range is where they’re comfortable.

We’ll learn a lot about where Aiyuk and the 49ers are when the draft plays out Thursday. If the receiver isn’t dealt during the draft, we can conclude that San Francisco believes the two sides will eventually come together on a deal.

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49ers may change contract negotiation tactics for Brandon Aiyuk

The 49ers have a typical timeline for contract negotiations. They may change that for Brandon Aiyuk.

49ers general manager John Lynch wasn’t interested in talking about the team’s ongoing contract negotiations with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Lynch opened his press conference by saying he wanted to focus on the draft, so naturally he was asked about the Aiyuk negotiations right away.

While the GM didn’t divulge much in the way of progress on the negotiations, he did offer some fascinating insight into how the team might change its typical contract negotiation timeline.

Under Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan the 49ers have done a nice job retaining their home-grown stars. Those long-term contracts typically come late in the offseason either right before camp or early in camp. For defensive end Nick Bosa it took until the week the season started. Doing it that way gave the team the maximum amount of time to negotiate a deal while also using soft deadlines like training camp start dates as leverage.

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Now it sounds like San Francisco could be rethinking that strategy after recent negotiations with Bosa and WR Deebo Samuel bled into camp and limited some of their preparations for the season.

“I think there is human nature is that deadlines force these things, but I think you can always learn from situations and you’d be a fool not to,” Lynch said. “I’d like to have our business tidied up a little. Those things, they ran the course they needed to. I’m proud of our record of getting the guys we want to get done, done. But I’m right there with everyone else. I’d sure like it to happen sooner.”

This could be genuine reflection from Lynch and an indication that the club believes dragging out negotiations is somehow damaging for players who have the contract lingering over them throughout the offseason. It might also be lip service since hoping a deal happens sooner than later has been a common theme for the 49ers during these types of negotiations.

Fans would certainly love to see the club shrink the timeline on such deals though. An offseason where Aiyuk speculation is ceased well before training camp would be boring, but a welcome reprieve from the standard turbulent offseason contract negotiations.

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John Lynch mum on Brandon Aiyuk contract talks

John Lynch didn’t want to say much about the Brandon Aiyuk contract negotiations. Mission accomplished!

49ers general manager John Lynch on Monday spoke with reporters ahead of the NFL draft which begins Thursday. Before taking questions Lynch addressed the sizable elephant in the room — the contract talks with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

Lynch last spoke with reporters at the NFL owners meetings in March and didn’t have an Aiyuk update. Since then there have been rumors swirling, but nothing definitive from neither the 49ers nor Aiyuk’s camp. Lynch wanted to make clear early in his availability that he wouldn’t have any Aiyuk updates Monday.

”B. A. I’ve communicated on many occasions our wish,” Lynch said. “And our wish is that he’s here and part of the Niners for the rest of his career. We’re working through that, and as such, I was a player once and I never liked my business being out in the public, and so I’m gonna respect that. I’m not gonna speak for their side. I can say we’re having good talks and I’m just gonna leave it at that.”

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It’s not a huge surprise Lynch didn’t want to dive into the contract negotiations in public. Aiyuk’s agent has also been quick to publicly refute rumors of trade talks between the 49ers and other teams.

Lynch reiterated his stance that the 49ers want to keep Aiyuk — a statement he also gave last time he spoke with media at the NFL owners meetings in March.

It’s unlikely we’ll see anything definitive on the Aiyuk situation until the draft. If he’s not dealt on Day 1 of the draft it’s unlikely he’ll be moved this year, which will turn the attention away from potential trades and toward the negotiations. After that we’ll probably have to wait for a deal to come together before we hear Lynch or anyone else from the 49ers say something of substance about it.

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Brandon Aiyuk’s social media post just following contract negotiation playbook

Don’t freak out about Brandon Aiyuk’s social media activity. (Do freak out if the 49ers trade him though).

Brandon Aiyuk on Monday sent various corners of the internet where 49ers fans reside into a tizzy with a simple Instagram post. The All-Pro wide receiver posted to his story a set of emojis that translated roughly to “money talks, defecation from some kind of horned bovine creature walks.”

The only thing keeping this from being a textbook play from a player negotiating a contract is that it wasn’t quite cryptic enough. The message was loud and clear (and not particularly groundbreaking): Aiyuk wants to get paid.

(Screenshot via IG/@brandonaiyuk)

Aiyuk’s desire to achieve the proverbial bag this offseason isn’t a secret. It’s not a secret any time an ascending All-Pro player is due for his second NFL contract. The post from Aiyuk is a typical move to negotiate as best as possible through the public. He can control the discourse with a couple taps on his phone since general manager John Lynch is going to say all the right things publicly about how they’re working toward a deal and they want Aiyuk around long-term. He’ll also say things like the 49ers are okay with letting Aiyuk play out his fifth-year option.

 

While Lynch does that, Aiyuk can whip fans into a frenzy to try and apply some kind of external pressure on the 49ers.

That’s the extent of the damage he can do with a social media post though. The 49ers front office didn’t see Aiyuk’s IG story and have some kind of revelation that they may need to pay him top-five WR money. There have been zero points since the start of the 2023 season when that hasn’t been the case. He was stellar in 2022 and backed it up with an even better 2023. There are a million reasons they’ll want to keep him in the building.

We can expect more of this kind of thing going forward if other players contract negotiations are instructive at all. At some point there’ll be another social media post from Aiyuk or someone close to him indicating he’s on his way out. There will be teams and people followed and unfollowed on social media. Photos and posts will be deleted. There might even be a public trade demand in there.

None of these public negotiation tactics will ultimately matter because none of it is out of the ordinary. We’ve seen it time and time again, and it doesn’t alter the 49ers’ course of negotiations at all. Just like Lynch saying all the right things won’t change Aiyuk’s course of negotiation. What will matter is what’s going on behind closed doors.

It’s clear the 49ers want to keep Aiyuk, but they’ll have a price point. Whether Aiyuk’s price point falls at or below where the 49ers are willing to go remains to be seen. Those negotiations are certainly underway on some level, but they’ve likely not begun in earnest.

There are two deadlines, one hard and one soft. The hard deadline is the 2024 NFL draft which starts on Thursday, April 25. If San Francisco is going to trade Aiyuk it’s likely they’d want to do so by Day 1 of the draft to ensure they’re maximizing their return in a way that will help them this season.

The soft deadline is the start of training camp. The 49ers have typically done business in a way that sees long-term extensions get done either just before or early on in training camp. We saw defensive end Nick Bosa take his negotiations on a new contract up to the first week of the regular season, but that hasn’t been the usual timeline for San Francisco and its star players.

It’s unlikely there’s a smooth path to the conclusion of the Aiyuk saga. Regardless of how it ends there are going to be twists and turns. While we don’t know how this all will end, we do know it’s not going to turn either direction based on an either cryptic or not-so-cryptic social media post.

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Why extending Brandon Aiyuk is essential for 49ers

The 49ers have to re-sign Brandon Aiyuk. Some thoughts:

Extending wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is sitting highlighted and in bold type atop the 49ers’ imaginary offseason to-do list. The reasons for keeping him in the building were established over the last two seasons when Aiyuk led the team in receiving despite dealing with an array of quarterback tumult and playing third or fourth fiddle to the team’s other offensive weapons.

Aiyuk is ascending as one of the five or 10 best receivers in football. That alone is reason enough to pay to keep him in Santa Clara. There’s a ripple effect created by keeping him though that is an essential piece of the 49ers’ long-term future.

What Aiyuk has been able to do in an offense that also features WR Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey has been undeniably impressive. He’s built a good rapport with quarterback Brock Purdy and he thrives in the same areas of the field that Purdy is at his best throwing to.

That relationship with the young QB is the key reason San Francisco has to ensure Aiyuk is back for the foreseeable future.

It appears the 49ers are ready to make Purdy their franchise quarterback, and with his extension due as early as next offseason, they’ll need to start figuring out how to build a roster around a quarterback contract that sits near the top of the market instead of literally at the very bottom of it.

That has to start with Aiyuk, who will be 26-years old for the 2024 season. His prime aligns with Purdy’s, but it also aligns with the inevitable exodus of the 49ers’ other star players.

Samuel is 28, Kittle turns 31 in October, and McCaffrey will turn 28 before the 2024 campaign kicks off. All three of that trio have two years left on their contracts. Even if they re-sign in San Francisco they’ll be either past or on the back-end of their primes.

Letting Aiyuk out the door via trade puts the 49ers in danger of having a barren roster around their young, expensive franchise quarterback just one year after signing him to a long-term deal. Sure, they could retool and add pieces via the draft and free agency, but they have an ascending superstar already in their building who already has good chemistry with said QB.

Paying another WR top-of-market money when the offense is already loaded with stars is probably not an easy pill for the front office to swallow. That’s the short-term view though. Aiyuk has to stick around for the long-term because the 49ers are ultimately a team in transition. They’re in the process of moving from one core to another, and Aiyuk is firmly implanted in that new wave of 49ers player who would ideally be at the forefront of a Super Bowl window flung wide open again.

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Mike Evans contract could impact Brandon Aiyuk contract talks

Mike Evans wasn’t really going to be an option for the 49ers in free agency, but his contract extension with Tampa Bay could matter for San Francisco.

Wide receiver Mike Evans is heading back to the Buccaneers instead of hitting free agency. ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Monday reported the news of a two-year, $52 million contract that includes $35 million in guaranteed money. The 49ers were never going to be players for Evans in free agency, but his contract extension could have a ripple effect that impacts San Francisco’s negotiations with Brandon Aiyuk.

It’s not that Evans’ deal suddenly means Aiyuk is going to be expensive. He was always going to get a sizable deal coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. However, that Evans received $26 million per year with $35 million guaranteed going into his age 31 season should give the Aiyuk camp some optimism they can clear that number.

Aiyuk is significantly younger than Evans and is seeing his stock rise after a strong fourth season. He’s also developed a good rapport with quarterback Brock Purdy and it’s easy to project some more really strong years for Aiyuk, whose game is more well-rounded than Evans’. That’s not to say Evans isn’t great. He’ll be a Hall of Famer once he hangs up his pads, but there’s an argument to be made from Aiyuk’s side that he can have an even larger impact than Evans at this point in their respective careers.

If Aiyuk is looking for something north of $26 million it might get difficult for the 49ers to find a sweet spot that allows them to come to a deal with their All-Pro WR. For reference, only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill clear Evans’ $26 million average annual value. Paying Aiyuk at that level and paying Deebo Samuel at $23.85 million AAV would be difficult.

There’s some good news for the 49ers here if Aiyuk does want to use Evans’ deal as a jumping off point for negotiations. San Francisco may have all the optimism in the world about Aiyuk moving forward, but Evans’ resume is simply more extensive at this point. He has 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, a Super Bowl ring and five Pro Bowl trips under his belt in 10 seasons as a pro. Those are all things the 49ers would surely put on the table to reject the idea of Aiyuk’s contract going into the top-five WR range with Evans.

Of course, Evans’ contract may not bother Aiyuk at all. Perhaps his camp has a number in mind that’s more in line with something like Samuel got, which would give the 49ers some additional wiggle room to make sure Aiyuk gets paid.

If there’s pushback from Aiyuk’s camp though and Evans’ contract is the standard no matter what, the 49ers may have to give serious consideration to moving on from their budding superstar wide receiver.

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