Tag: NFL Trade Rumors

Finally, a hypothetical Brandon Aiyuk trade that makes some sense

If (IF) the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk, this is the type of seismic deal to expect:

Hypothetical Brandon Aiyuk trades have been one of the topics du jour this NFL draft season. Much of the trade chatter around the 49ers’ star wide receiver has been publicly refuted by Aiyuk’s agent, but that hasn’t stopped some wild potential trades from being thrown about on the internet.

For the most part the fake Aiyuk trades haven’t been grounded in reality. The 49ers don’t want to move Aiyuk and there’s no reason at press time to believe he’s going to want a contract beyond what the 49ers will be willing to stomach. Still, most trades have been structured as though San Francisco is just looking to punt on the Second-Team All-Pro. Thankfully, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell in his mock draft that features trades at every pick actually proposed the type of trade we might see if Aiyuk does get moved.

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It’s worth noting the 49ers would have suitors for Aiyuk if they made him available. The chances they’d acquiesce to a trade that landed them anything less than a first-round pick in this year’s draft seem slim. That’s why Barnwell’s proposed trade works. He has San Francisco sending Aiyuk and pick Nos. 31 and 94 in this year’s draft to the Los Angeles Chargers for pick Nos. 5 and 181 this year.

To be clear, Barnwell isn’t reporting this deal. However, if we see Aiyuk dealt on Draft Night, it’ll likely be in a deal of this magnitude. It’ll be one that moves the needle pretty significantly. There’s unlikely to be a trade that features the 49ers receiving a second-round pick and a couple of other later selections.

At the fifth overall pick San Francisco would have a strong foundation to either get Aiyuk’s replacement with whichever of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze is available and atop their board. They’d also likely have their pick of offensive tackles at No. 5 overall. If they could snag a player like Notre Dame OT Joe Alt it’s hard to envision a scenario where they don’t come out of Day 1 of the draft as a pretty big winner.

Then they’d have an opportunity on Day 2 to either get aggressive in Round 2 and move up, or trade down into the third and pick up some additional capital later on Day 2 or in Day 3.

Our official stance is that we don’t believe Aiyuk will be dealt. This is a fascinating scenario though and the 49ers would have to put themselves in that kind of top-five position to even begin justifying shipping out a rising young superstar.

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49ers pick WR in Round 1 of mock draft decided by betting markets

Here’s a thing that’s probably not going to happen to the 49ers in this year’s draft:

Pro Football Focus published a fun spin on a mock draft where author Arjun Menon crafted a 32-pick projection based on odds implied by betting markets. That is to say each player was selected based on which player has the best odds to go to a team. It’s a fun process, but the 49ers pick for it comes with a pretty sizable flaw.

Menon’s mock sends Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey to the 49ers because “it seems like the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are moving further apart in contract negotiations with each passing day.”

We’ll put a pin in the assumption on contract negotiations for now and focus instead on the potential trading of Aiyuk itself.

McConkey landing with the 49ers is certainly not out of the question. He’s a versatile, tough WR who spends an almost comedic amount of time running open. It’s easy to see why head coach Kyle Shanahan would love having a player like him to pair with quarterback Brock Purdy for the foreseeable future.

What isn’t accounted for in the world where the 49ers are drafting McConkey because they traded Aiyuk is that they’d likely only deal Aiyuk for a first-round pick this year. Perhaps it’s the Jaguars and the No. 17 choice. Maybe it’s the Steelers with the 20th pick. Either way if we’re going to venture into this world where the 49ers are trading Aiyuk, there should be additional implication that the trade fetched them something in the first round.

Perhaps odds aren’t accounting for that possibility despite the fact “it seems like the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are moving further apart in contract negotiations with each passing day.” Maybe McConkey being the implied favorite to land in San Francisco has nothing to do with Aiyuk.

It should still at least be acknowledged that if the 49ers are dealing the All-Pro wide receiver it would be for a first-round pick this year and probably something else. The Titans received Nos. 18 and 101 for WR AJ Brown. Baltimore got the No. 23 pick for WR Marquise Brown and the 100th overall selection.

It’s easy to envision a scenario where the 49ers trade Aiyuk and pick a wide receiver in the first round. It’s also not hard to see the 49ers picking a WR in Round 1 without trading Aiyuk. What is difficult is to see the 49ers dealing Aiyuk this offseason for anything less than a first-round pick in this year’s draft.

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Brandon Aiyuk’s social media post just following contract negotiation playbook

Don’t freak out about Brandon Aiyuk’s social media activity. (Do freak out if the 49ers trade him though).

Brandon Aiyuk on Monday sent various corners of the internet where 49ers fans reside into a tizzy with a simple Instagram post. The All-Pro wide receiver posted to his story a set of emojis that translated roughly to “money talks, defecation from some kind of horned bovine creature walks.”

The only thing keeping this from being a textbook play from a player negotiating a contract is that it wasn’t quite cryptic enough. The message was loud and clear (and not particularly groundbreaking): Aiyuk wants to get paid.

(Screenshot via IG/@brandonaiyuk)

Aiyuk’s desire to achieve the proverbial bag this offseason isn’t a secret. It’s not a secret any time an ascending All-Pro player is due for his second NFL contract. The post from Aiyuk is a typical move to negotiate as best as possible through the public. He can control the discourse with a couple taps on his phone since general manager John Lynch is going to say all the right things publicly about how they’re working toward a deal and they want Aiyuk around long-term. He’ll also say things like the 49ers are okay with letting Aiyuk play out his fifth-year option.

 

While Lynch does that, Aiyuk can whip fans into a frenzy to try and apply some kind of external pressure on the 49ers.

That’s the extent of the damage he can do with a social media post though. The 49ers front office didn’t see Aiyuk’s IG story and have some kind of revelation that they may need to pay him top-five WR money. There have been zero points since the start of the 2023 season when that hasn’t been the case. He was stellar in 2022 and backed it up with an even better 2023. There are a million reasons they’ll want to keep him in the building.

We can expect more of this kind of thing going forward if other players contract negotiations are instructive at all. At some point there’ll be another social media post from Aiyuk or someone close to him indicating he’s on his way out. There will be teams and people followed and unfollowed on social media. Photos and posts will be deleted. There might even be a public trade demand in there.

None of these public negotiation tactics will ultimately matter because none of it is out of the ordinary. We’ve seen it time and time again, and it doesn’t alter the 49ers’ course of negotiations at all. Just like Lynch saying all the right things won’t change Aiyuk’s course of negotiation. What will matter is what’s going on behind closed doors.

It’s clear the 49ers want to keep Aiyuk, but they’ll have a price point. Whether Aiyuk’s price point falls at or below where the 49ers are willing to go remains to be seen. Those negotiations are certainly underway on some level, but they’ve likely not begun in earnest.

There are two deadlines, one hard and one soft. The hard deadline is the 2024 NFL draft which starts on Thursday, April 25. If San Francisco is going to trade Aiyuk it’s likely they’d want to do so by Day 1 of the draft to ensure they’re maximizing their return in a way that will help them this season.

The soft deadline is the start of training camp. The 49ers have typically done business in a way that sees long-term extensions get done either just before or early on in training camp. We saw defensive end Nick Bosa take his negotiations on a new contract up to the first week of the regular season, but that hasn’t been the usual timeline for San Francisco and its star players.

It’s unlikely there’s a smooth path to the conclusion of the Aiyuk saga. Regardless of how it ends there are going to be twists and turns. While we don’t know how this all will end, we do know it’s not going to turn either direction based on an either cryptic or not-so-cryptic social media post.

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John Lynch: 49ers not having trade talks about Brandon Aiyuk

John Lynch addressed the Brandon Aiyuk trade stuff at the NFL owners meetings.

The Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors have started flying with the first waves of free agency starting to slow down. Reports have surfaced about the Jaguars and Steelers both being interested in Aiyuk, but 49ers general manager John Lynch on Monday at the NFL owners meetings denied any report that San Francisco has had talks about trading the 26-year-old All-Pro.

According to NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, Lynch said the 49ers are in talks with Aiyuk about an extension and that any reports of trade discussions are false. Lynch also noted the 49ers would be fine letting Aiyuk play out the fifth year of his rookie contract with no long-term extension.

The problem isn’t whether the 49ers would let Aiyuk play out the deal. It’s whether Aiyuk would be willing to take the field without an extension. San Francisco holds most of the power here since skipping a year would also lose a year of service for Aiyuk, putting him right back in the same spot next season.

However, the 49ers aren’t likely to want Aiyuk playing on that fifth-year option for a couple reasons. First, that may sever the long-term relationship entirely if they make him play without any kind of long-term security. Second, his $14.2 million cap hit this year could actually be reduced via a longer-term deal.

This is where the contract negotiation part of this comes in and it’s why the 49ers should have some optimism about getting a deal done. It’s in their best interest to give Aiyuk what he deserves, and it’s in Aiyuk’s best interest to get that deal signed so he can go into 2024 with the proverbial bag in hand.

Alas, those negotiations will happen as much in public as they do in private. Lynch could very easily be lying about the trade talks and the willingness to let Aiyuk play on the fifth-year option. If Aiyuk’s camp is looking for a deal north of what the 49ers are willing to pay, then a trade will have to be on the table if they want to recoup anything for the WR.

All of this should happen relatively quickly though. If San Francisco’s brass believes they’ll have to trade the receiver, they’ll want to do so before this year’s draft to ensure they’re going to get quality draft capital that can help this year.

If a trade doesn’t materialize, then we can expect this to go well into the offseason and even into training camp. That’s how the 49ers have typically done business, and it appears they’re on track to follow the same path they’ve followed with Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel in recent seasons.

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Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors from 49ers perspective

All of the reasons people want their favorite team to trade for Brandon Aiyuk are all of the reasons the #49ers have to keep him.

The Brandon Aiyuk trade conversation has gotten rolling as the dust settles on free agency and the NFL draft approaches. Since San Francisco would likely be aiming to move the WR by Draft Day, the discussions about team fits and potential trade partners will ramp up substantially.

Jacksonville has come up as a potential suitor after they lost Calvin Ridley in free agency. Pittsburgh has also become a popular hypothetical destination after Aiyuk fed trade speculation with a tweet to Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin on March 19. It was Aiyuk’s first tweet since April 30, 2023.

The trade talks aren’t unfounded or ridiculous. Aiyuk is entering the fifth and final year of his rookie contract, and it’s unlikely he’ll be willing to suit up without a long-term extension. San Francisco also doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room under the cap this year. There are ways they can structure the contract to make it more affordable in 2024 than his $14.2 million fifth-year option. More on this in a bit.

However, it’s not a slam dunk the 49ers get a deal done. They’ll have a value in mind and if Aiyuk’s camp wants something more than that number, then San Francisco will have to trade its No. 1 wide receiver.

To be clear, the 49ers don’t want to trade him. They’ve said as much publicly any time anyone with ears and a pulse is in the vicinity. All of the reasons pundits and writers and podcasters believe Aiyuk is a fit for one team are also reasons he’s a fit for the 49ers. He’s still just 26, has great hands, explosive athleticism and a dynamic route tree that makes him one of the toughest covers in the sport. Aiyuk has also become a dominant run blocker which will help his case with every offensive coach in the NFL.

This is why the 49ers will be working to ensure they’re locking up Aiyuk beyond the 2024 campaign. He’s their future on offense alongside quarterback Brock Purdy. Letting Aiyuk walk ensures a nearly bare offensive cupboard for their newly-minted franchise QB by the time 2026 rolls around. It’s hard to envision many scenarios where the 49ers are letting Aiyuk get out the door, particularly because finding players like him isn’t easy. The Titans jettisoning WR AJ Brown during the 2022 draft is instructive in this case. That’s a scenario the 49ers will want to avoid.

So, let’s get back to the money.

It’s easy to point to all of the high-dollar contracts of left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey and conclude the 49ers simply cannot pay another wide receiver. Giving Aiyuk $28 million per year means they’re giving their top two receivers nearly $52 million in average annual value. That’s a lot!

For this season though the deal could be structured in a way that actually saves the 49ers money against the cap this year. They could potentially cut Aiyuk’s $14.2 million cap hit in half to save money now while pushing his bigger cap hits into the future when the cap keeps climbing and some of the other sizable contracts come off their books.

There’s a harsh reality that comes with this though. That group of offensive weapons featuring Willams, Kittle, Samuel and McCaffrey may not be in the 49ers’ long-term plans. San Francisco has to start gearing up for the future where Aiyuk figures to be a major player for them entering his prime while Kittle, Samuel and McCaffrey all clear 30-years old and Williams pushes 40.

So as the trade rumors and speculation fly, and Aiyuk is lauded as a fit for teams because of his ability and age, the 49ers will be aiming to pay him for all of those exact same reasons. There’s a definite scenario where the two sides don’t come to a deal, but the 49ers will be bending over backward to try and ensure a key piece of their future is locked up long-term.

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Bengals surprise by trading Joe Mixon to Texans

The Bengals have traded Joe Mixon to the Texans.

The Cincinnati Bengals have had a change of plans.

Instead of releasing running back Joe Mixon after agreeing to sign free agent Zack Moss, the Bengals are trading him away.

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Bengals will trade Mixon to the Houston Texans.

The news comes on the heels of reports the Bengals will outright release Mixon after signing Moss. And while the cap savings should largely remain the same either way, the Bengals will get something immediate back in return for Mixon’s departure — and they ship him to a great situation, with Houston back-needy and on the rise with C.J. Stroud under center, plus the Texans inherit his contract, meaning he’ll get the bonuses and numbers he would’ve otherwise lost via being cut.

Cincinnati outbid the Dallas Cowboys for Moss and saved cap space with the departure of Mixon. Now, they get additional compensation for his departure, too.

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Bengals, Panthers haven’t talked Tee Higgins trade and deal is unlikely, per report

An insider shoots down a Tee Higgins, Bengals-Panthers trade idea.

The Carolina Panthers sure looked like a team loading up to trade for a star player such as Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tee Higgins.

But a new report says not to count on it.

According to CBS Sports’  Jonathan Jones, despite the recent addition of draft assets, the Panthers haven’t made overtures about a Higgins trade to the Bengals: “With Carolina now in possession of picks 33 and 39, there had been some talk of packaging those in a trade for a player like WR Tee Higgins. A league source tells me no conversations have taken place between Carolina and Cincinnati, and a trade is not likely to happen.”

Those Panthers traded superstar pass-rusher Brian Burns to the New York Giants, meaning they now own the first, 33rd, 39th and 65th picks in the top 100 of the draft.

Those picks in the 30-60 range would make for a standard-fare offering via trade for a player like Higgins. Compounding matters is Carolina’s droves of cap space that could afford a Higgins extension and the desperate need to make sure that Bryce Young, last year’s No. 1 overall pick, develops properly.

But…it takes two to make a trade happen and there’s nothing to say the Bengals are actually interested in trading Higgins despite his trade request.  Another report said other teams haven’t called the Bengals since they applied the franchise tag.

With the wideout market very slow right now ahead of an extremely deep draft class, teams like the Panthers might be more comfortable waiting on the draft instead of coughing up big assets and cash for Higgins.

That could change, of course, but the most obvious trade partner for Higgins, at least right now, hasn’t hinted at wanting to do a deal.

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Bengals didn’t get Tee Higgins trade calls after franchise tag, per report

A report reveals that no teams have called the Bengals about trading for Tee Higgins.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins has requested a trade, though no other teams have previously approached the Bengals about a deal.

According to a report from Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, zero teams called the Bengals about a deal after the team applied the franchise tag to the star wideout.

Florio wrote the following: “Per a source with knowledge of the situation, that hadn’t happened before today. The Bengals hadn’t even gotten a call about a potential trade.”

The Bengals talked differently about Higgins’ future with the team at the combine than they have in the past, though Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin shot down the idea that the quick timing of the franchise tag had anything to do with wanting to trade him.

Perhaps part of the reason no team approached the Bengals is their reputation as stubborn in trade talks. But part of it is undoubtedly the asking price, too, as the Bengals figure to want roughly a first-round pick in exchange if they’re willing to deal Higgins — the trading team would have to cough up that and a potentially market-resetting extension.

As always mentioned, the Bengals and Higgins have until July 15 to reach a long-term extension, or he’ll play on the tag next season, barring a shocking trade development.

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Bengals WR Tee Higgins requests trade ahead of free agency

Tee Higgins requests a trade.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins has requested a trade.

Roughly two hours before the “legal tampering” window of free agency opened on Monday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the following:

Bengals franchise WR Tee Higgins has requested a trade, per sources. Higgins loves Cincinnati and hoped to be with the team long term, but is disappointed that the team has not had any talks about a long-term contract extension since March 2023. He’s ready to move on to a new home.

The Bengals applied the franchise tag to Higgins before the scouting combine and currently have until July 15 to work out a long-term extension with the star wide receiver.

Cincinnati’s quick usage of the $21.8 million franchise tag near the end of February seemed to suggest the team might be open to a trade. But Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin pushed back against that idea at the combine, saying the timing had more to do with the dramatic leap of the salary cap.

Higgins has remained adamant that he would like to remain with the team and Joe Burrow’s latest comments on the franchise tag echo the same sentiment.

Though this has consistently felt like a Jessie Bates situation for the Bengals, a trade request and the timing of it is a new wrinkle. Higgins would have to sign the tag to let a trade go through or a holdout could stretch into the summer.

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Cowboys control league’s biggest QB mystery in Trey Lance

Only the Cowboys know what Trey Lance looked like last season so there’s no choice but to trust them to do the right thing (develop or trade) this offseason. | From @ReidDHanson

Cowboys QB talk has made its way back into the news. Instead of being about Dak Prescott and his upcoming contract negotiation, this time it’s about developmental prospect, Trey Lance.

Lance, acquired in a 2023 midseason trade with San Francisco, has reportedly sparked the interest of at least one QB-needy team this offseason. Under contract for the 2024 season, the Cowboys have the option of either exploring trade offers or staying the course by continuing to develop the 23-year-old signal caller.

As an undeveloped prospect, Lance has it all. He’s a highly-athletic dual threat who can create plays with his legs or with his arm. His plus traits keep his ceiling high even if his limited experience keeps his floor fairly low. Herein lies the trust.

Only two teams have truly seen what Lance has to offer as a QB prospect: the Cowboys and the 49ers. One of those teams traded him away for a fourth-round pick after just two seasons and the other team kept him buried as QB3 refusing to show their hand to anyone outside the organization.

With just 102 professional passing attempts, Lance is the NFL equivalent of Skinner’s box.

No one truly knows if he’s a good or bad prospect because there hasn’t been enough evidence available to back up either conclusion. For the Cowboys this means his value on the trade market is less than it would be if he had a few impressive games on his resume, but more than it would be if he had a few recent poor outings on his resume.

If the Cowboys thought they could have boosted Lance’s value by slipping him into some blowout situations last season, they probably would have. Keeping him sidelined kept the mystery alive. That could be in an effort to quietly groom him into the player they hoped he could be, or it could be to hide his shortfalls from would-be buyers this offseason. Only the Cowboys really know.

With just 420 passing attempts since high school, Lance remains one of the most unproven fourth-year prospects in the NFL. The former No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft is packed with potential but at this point potential is all he offers.

The Cowboys got a free peak at Lance last season. They know his value more than anyone — save for San Francisco — so if they decide to keep him it’s for good reason. Just like if they decide to trade him, it’s also probably for good reason. There’s really no choice but to trust the Cowboys on this one.

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