It turns out teams don’t often trade up into back of Round 1 for QB

If the 49ers are able to trade back from No. 31 it’s unlikely it’ll be because of a quarterback.

The 49ers are in a tough spot in the 2024 draft where they’re slated to pick No. 31 overall. By the time the board shakes out they’ll likely be faced with a handful of prospects they’d like better as Day 2 selections. The obvious solution would be to identify a team that might want to jump up into the back of the first round for a chance to snag a quarterback with the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round pick. The problem is that doesn’t happen very often.

Typically the players identified as potential targets in a trade up into the first round are QBs. And it makes sense. A QB slipping that far may need a little development and having that fifth year option could be valuable either negotiating a long-term deal, or in evaluating whether to keep that player beyond their rookie contract. It turns out that idea is a fine one in theory, but QBs slipping that far generally wind up going in Round 2 or later.

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Since the fifth-year option was implemented as part of the CBA in 2011, only two teams have traded up into the back of the first round for a quarterback. The Vikings did it in 2014 when they sent pick Nos. 40 and 108 to the Seahawks in exchange for the No. 32 selection where they picked QB Teddy Bridgewater.

The Ravens executed a similar deal in the 2018 draft to select QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore sent pick Nos. 52 and 125, and a 2019 second-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for pick Nos. 32 and 132.

And that’s it. That concludes the history of teams trading up into the first round for a quarterback in the fifth-year-option era. If Bo Nix and/or Michael Penix Jr. slip to No. 31 this year, there’s a much higher likelihood they’re still on the board in Day 2 than there is a team jumps up to pick them at the end of Day 1.

For the 49ers a trade back might come from a club looking to jump the Chiefs for a wide receiver. Or a cornerback might slip that another team values more than San Francisco. There are definitely options and scenarios where a trade up into Round 1 involves a QB, but the 49ers aren’t likely to benefit from that since such a move has been a rarity across the last 12 drafts.

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4 teams the Detroit Lions could trade with in the 2023 NFL Draft

A look at some realistic trade options for the Detroit Lions in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

As we inch closer to the 2023 NFL Draft, you’re going to see thousands of mock drafts through multiple mock draft simulators. I’ll agree that I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to doing them. In a majority of the mock drafts, we’ll see mock trades occur but we all know that every trade isn’t realistic.

One thing we’ve learned, is that Brad Holmes isn’t afraid of picking up the phone. In last year’s draft, he moved up 20 spots to select Jameson Williams. Could the Lions try and pull that off this year?

They could potentially trade down 20 spots or they could look to try back into the first round. They’d have to move the 48th overall pick to ensure that happens, but again, anything is possible. Speaking of possibilities, let’s take a look at some realistic trade up and down options for the Detroit Lions in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

 

Raiders may need to trade up to 3rd pick if they hope to get one of top QBs in this draft

Panthers trade puts pressure on Raiders to make big trade up if they hope to get a top QB in this draft.

Friday saw the Panthers shake up this year’s draft when they traded up with the Bears to acquire the number one overall pick. No team’s draft plans could be more affected by the move more than the Raiders.

Four quarterbacks are considered worthy of being selected near the top of this year’s draft; Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, and Kentucky’s Will Levis.

With the Raiders sitting at seven overall, they were considered to be in a position to get one of them, if not one of the top three. The Panthers trade up to number one has changed all of that.

Previously, the Panthers picked at nine overall, after the Raiders. Both teams have a need at quarterback and the Panthers weren’t willing to take their chances, so they put themselves in the catbird seat to have their pick of any of them.

Just behind the Panthers at two overall is the Texans who also figure to be looking for a quarterback. And two spots later, at fourth overall, are the Colts who are in the same boat.

That means, even if no more teams trade up, the Raiders would be looking at whoever is left from the four after the top three are gone.

Again, that’s if no other teams trade up. And that’s a very big if.

Right behind the Raiders in this draft are the Falcons at eight overall. They too need a quarterback and thus are in play to move up to try and get one.

Even if the Falcons don’t trade up, are the Raiders satisfied with putting their fate in the hands of other teams while they just selecting whichever QB they don’t take? Keep in mind, even that would be the best case scenario.

There is one obvious solution to all this — trade up to three with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have their QB. With the jockeying for position to get a QB happening, a move down four picks would still figure to yield them one of the top three non-quarterbacks in this draft. And they could pick up some nice draft capital in the process.

For the Raiders, it would guarantee they get one of the top three quarterbacks in this draft, which is better than settling for whomever other teams don’t take, or, more likely, missing out on a quarterback altogether at the top of this draft. There is a sizable drop off after those four.

You can bet several other teams will have the same idea. The Colts and Falcons foremost among them.

It’s not as if the Raiders don’t have the assets to make such a trade. They have 11 picks in this year’s draft and can also offer up future picks.

The only question would be if they do it before the draft or wait until the Cardinals are on the clock after the first two selections are made. And would waiting risk the possibility another team could make that trade before the draft?

If they don’t make the aggressive move to trade up to three to get one of the top quarterbacks, they would have to take their chances later in the draft. Which could be just as risky as hoping one of the top four falls to them at seven.

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Full 7-round Patriots 2023 mock draft 2.0

Here’s a full seven-round mock draft for the Patriots (2.0).

While everyone else turns the page to championship football, the New England Patriots are in full-on 2023 planning mode.

That includes the hiring of offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien, along with the priming and preparation for free agency and eventually the NFL draft.

The first edition of our full seven-round mock draft series can be found here. As always, these mock drafts are what I believe the Patriots should do, not what I’m predicting them to do. With a coach like Bill Belichick, there will always be a surprise or two thrown in there.

Let’s take a look at how the latest mock draft turned out for the Patriots.

Saints have the means to make a big draft-day trade for a top wide receiver

The Saints haven’t traded up for a wide receiver since picking Brandin Cooks in 2014, but it may be time for them to make a big draft-day move, via @RossJacksonNOLA:

The New Orleans Saints have traded up at some point in the NFL draft every season since Jeff Ireland joined the staff as director of college scouting assistant general manager. The pattern of aggressive mobility in the draft hasn’t been isolated to Ireland’s time, but he’s the connective tissue that binds the team’s most successful drafts of recent years. In 2022, with Sean Payton no longer with the team, Ireland’s draft habits shouldn’t be expected to change and neither should the front office’s willingness to go get the players they want.

With the Saints heading into the new league year as one of the NFL’s wide receiver-neediest team, there are ample opportunities to address the position with a talented rookie group in this year’s draft. However, after some impressive NFL scouting combine performances, prospects like Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and even Jameson Williams could possibly require the Saints to trade up from pick 18. Could this be the first year in Jeff Ireland’s tenure that the Saints trade up for a wide receiver?

Of the positions the Saints have moved up for since his hiring in 2015, wide receiver is not one of them. In fact, it’s the only non-special teams position the Saints haven’t traded up for with Ireland on staff. The last time the Saints did make a jump for a wideout was in 2014 when New Orleans selected Brandin Cooks. Since then the team has only drafted three wide receivers: Michael Thomas in 2016’s second round, Tre’Quan Smith in 2018’s third round, and Kawaan Baker in 2021’s seventh round.

Since the selection of Michael Thomas, who went on to become a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, New Orleans has mostly relied on the veteran player market or undrafted free agents to population the receiver room. This year, there’s reason to expect that to change and for a new focus to be granted to the position, including new wide receivers coach Kodi Burns.

With that said, the Saints could look to add a top wideout talent in the first year this year’s NFL draft, such as Ohio State receiver Chris Olave. Olave stole the show, even if only briefly at the combine after running an unofficial 4.26 40-yard dash. His time has since been adjusted to a 4.39, only .06 seconds behind Brandin Cooks’s 4.33. And Olave’s teammate Garrett Wilson clocked in just barely ahead of him with an official 4.38. If the Saints have shown that they are willing to make a move for anything, it’s top-tier speed and athleticism.

And if the Saints were interested in moving up for either Ohio State Buckeye, the team to get ahead of may be the in-state Cleveland Browns, who also have a big need at receiver, and who select 13th overall. For the Saints, there is a familiar draft-day trade partner in the Minnesota Vikings at 12th overall, a team that loves to stockpile picks (the Saints traded four picks with Minnesota in a bold move just a few years ago). A trade for the Saints’ 18th overall selection and either their compensatory third or one of their two expected fourth round picks could possibly help New Orleans get up ahead of the Browns and have their pick of the litter at wideout.

If the Saints pulled that off, it would still leave them four selections in the top 140 to continue to retool their offense. With needs at offensive line, tight end, and possibly even quarterback, they’d have enough fodder to continue to be aggressive in the trade market and make the moves necessary to maximize the fresh talent they can bring in this April.

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Tracking what happened to the draft picks the Browns traded away

Tracking what happened to the draft picks the Browns traded away in the 2020 NFL Draft

Andrew Berry and the Cleveland Browns made a couple of trades during the 2020 NFL Draft. The rookie GM accepted two separate offers to move back a few spots.

Here’s what became of those draft trades.

No. 41 overall

The Browns traded No. 41 overall in the second round to the Indianapolis Colts. In return the Browns received No. 44 and No. 160 overall. Cleveland used those picks to select Grant Delpit and Nick Harris, respectively.

The Colts moved up to land Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor at No. 41. With RB not a need in Cleveland, it’s a good return on a pick that the Colts used on a player the Browns weren’t going to select anyway.

No. 74 overall

The Browns picked up No. 88 overall and a third-round pick in 2021 from the New Orleans Saints in exchange for the team’s first third-round selection. Cleveland snagged DT Jordan Elliott after moving back and still owns the extra 2021 pick.

New Orleans drafted Wisconsin OLB Zack Baun at 74. The Browns also sent the Saints a seventh-round pick, No. 244 overall. The Saints used that pick on Iowa QB Nathan Stanley.

Baun would have been an interesting fit in Cleveland. He’s a better all-around player with much more positional versatility than Jacob Phillips, the LB the Browns chose later in the third. Baun fell because of concerns about his size, or lack thereof.

No. 155 overall

This was originally the Browns’ pick, but it was traded to the Buffalo Bills at the end of the 2019 preseason in exchange for guard Wyatt Teller. The Browns original 6th-round pick, No. 188 overall, was also included in that deal. Buffalo took Georgia Southern kicker Tyler Bass with that pick.

The Bills traded this spot to Minnesota in the huge, multi-pick deal last month to acquire WR Stefon Diggs. Minnesota didn’t keep the pick either. They traded No. 155 to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round pick in 2021. Chicago used the 155th pick on Tulsa EDGE Trevis Gipson.

No. 224 overall

Cleveland sent this pick, it’s original 7th-rounder, to the Tennessee Titans last August in exchange for WR Taywan Taylor. The Titans kept the pick and used it to select Hawaii QB Cole McDonald.

Donovan Peoples-Jones was selected by the Browns with the pick acquired from the Arizona Cardinals in the Jamar Taylor trade back in 2018.

The complicated history of NFL Draft trades at the No. 10 pick

The complicated history of NFL Draft trades at the No. 10 pick includes some superstars, busts, a former Browns icon and more

If the Cleveland Browns are interested in trading the No. 10 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, they will find lots of precedents. Trading back from the No. 10 pick is the norm of late.

Teams have traded back from the ten spot in three straight drafts. Based on the outcomes, the Browns might want to stay put. It’s been a decidedly mixed bag of outcomes for the trades.

Here are the last three No. 10 picks and trade outcomes, plus some notable older moves that also involved the 10th pick.

4 trades the Browns could make in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft

4 trades the Browns could make in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft

The 2020 NFL Draft is less than 30 days away. What will new Cleveland Browns GM Andrew Berry and his crew do in the draft?

One of the possibilities is to trade their pick in the first round. If the Browns want to move out of the No. 10 overall spot, they should have some options. They would likely have little trouble moving up to target a specific high-level talent, while trading back to acquire an extra pick or two certainly holds appeal as well.

We try to keep it real here at Browns Wire, so we’ll lead with this right off the bat: these are ideas, not predictions or reports of “the Browns and Team X are talking about a trade”. While the Browns almost certainly are talking to other teams about laying the groundwork for potential deals on draft weekend, it’s way too early to know any specifics.

In the spirit of offering ideas to new GM Andrew Berry, here are four trade possibilities for the Browns to explore in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Trade up with the Panthers for Jedrick Wills

In order to guarantee the Browns land the gifted Alabama offensive tackle, they need to trade up ahead of other OL-needy teams. The New York Giants at No. 4 overall are the most likely team to start selecting tackles (they’ve been linked to Louisville’s Mekhi Becton for several weeks), but the Chargers at No. 6 and the Cardinals at No. 8 are definitely candidates as well.

Jumping to four with the Giants would cost quite a bit. A more reasonable move would be to jump to No. 7 and land in front of the Cardinals. That would likely cost a third-round pick this year and another pick in 2021. The team at No. 7 is Carolina, which appears to be undergoing a radical overhaul and could use extra picks to expedite the rebuild.

The Browns happen to have an extra third-rounder this year from the Duke Johnson trade to the Texans. What better way to use it than to invest in making the Cleveland run game and offensive line better?