Tag: NFL Playoffs

NFC playoff picture: The Panthers are officially eliminated

There are still three weeks left to go in the regular season, but the Panthers have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.

There are still three weeks left to go in the regular season, but the Panthers have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. Their own embarrassing loss to the Falcons was bad enough. It was the Vikings’ victory over the Lions that made it official, though.

Here’s where things stand in the NFC playoff picture heading into Monday night’s game between the Eagles and Giants.

Playoff teams

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-4)

Still in the race

7. Los Angeles Rams (8-5)
8. Chicago Bears (7-6)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

The Eagles can still catch Dallas for that No. 4 seed but they are running out of time. A win tonight against an awful New York team with Eli Manning starting again is an absolute must.

Seattle’s loss to the Rams on Sunday night kept LA in the race for the No. 6 spot. Jared Goff has turned things around after a brutal stretch and put some pressure on Kirk Cousins and Minnesota to maintain that seed. The Vikings close out the regular season against the Chargers (away), Packers (home) and Bears (home). The Rams will face the Cowboys (away), 49ers (away) and Cardinals (home).

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PODCAST: What went wrong with Bills offense in loss to Ravens?

Buffalo Bills NFL podcast following Week 14 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

The Buffalo Bills fell to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday at New Era Field, 24-17. It certainly wasn’t the Bills’ finest game offensively, but there is a lot of optimism and growth than can come from a loss like this.

No, this isn’t the Bills first loss in 2019. The reason that this loss feels differently though, is that the Bills hung tough with the NFL’s finest team.

The Baltimore Ravens offense has been one of the most explosive forces in 2019, and have been a delight to watch as a fan. The Bills defense contained the young and very spry Lamar Jackson on the ground, perhaps laying a blueprint for a future team, or even themselves, to continue to restrict Jackson”s scrambling ability.

The problem though, Lamar Jackson can throw pretty well, and in tight spaces. Jackson torched the Bills secondary on a blown coverage touchdown to tight end Hayden Hurst, and several mid-range passes, but overall, the defense did it’s job. Held the hottest and one of the highest scoring offenses to a reasonable score. Unfortunately, the offense couldn’t take advantage.

The team is already looking ahead, as they have a big Sunday Night Football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that is also currently in the playoff picture, and looking to improve their spot. The Bills have a competitive, but not overwhelming final three game stretch, including a Patriots team, that of course shouldn’t be overlooked, but is not having their best season in quite some time, despite their record.

Here’s the latest episode of The Bills Wire Podcast following the Bills’ loss to the Ravens:

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Buccaneers beat Colts, but still eliminated from the playoffs

Despite a big comeback win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were eliminated from playoff contention.

In what became a shootout in Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers were able to comeback from a 35-21 deficit in the third quarter and secure a 38-35 win behind Jameis Winston’s 456 yards, 5 touchdown (4 passing, 1 rushing) and yes, 3 interceptions.

Despite getting the win, to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Bucs needed the Detroit Lions to beat the Minnesota Vikings today, which, unfortunately, didn’t happen.

It’s tough to be eliminated from the playoffs, let alone following a win. This late in the season if you’re not a division leader, that’s the name of the game. Don’t expect the Bucs to let off the gas though, with the second youngest roster in the league, this is very much needed experience for the team going forward. The playoffs may be out of the picture for this season, but there is a lot to build on towards next season.

With the Colts scoring 35 points, it would appear that the Bucs defense was gashed, which really wasn’t the case. Jacoby Brissett was held to 256 passing yards and two touchdowns, while the defense only allowed the Colts to generate 66 yards on the ground.

The Bucs will travel to Detroit next week to take on the Lions in an effort to earn their fourth-straight win and hopefully finish this 2019 on a high note.

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How NFL playoff tiebreakers could affect 49ers, NFC West

The 49ers and Seahawks could end in a tie for the division that goes deep into the tiebreaker rules.

The 49ers and Seahawks could be barreling toward an end-of-season tie that’ll require the league to go deep into the tiebreaker rules to determine the division winner.

Since the difference between winning and not winning the NFC West this year could be the difference between home-field advantage and a first-round bye, these tiebreakers will be extremely vital for San Francisco.

Here are the tiebreaker steps provided by the NFL, with some notes on where each one stands going into Week 14, including the ones we’ll likely never reach:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)

The Seahawks leads this one 1-0 thanks to their Week 10 win in Santa Clara. No matter how the final four weeks shake out, the 49ers are likely going to need to win at Seattle in Week 17 to secure a division title.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division)

The Seahawks have the edge in division record thanks to a 3-0 start.  The 49ers are 3-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of Seattle. San Francisco has division bouts with the Rams and Seahawks left. Seattle has a game each against the Rams, Cardinals and 49ers. Any one of those the Seahawks lose is huge for San Francisco’s chances to win the NFC West.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games

San Francisco holds the edge 8-1 to 7-2 in this one. Seattle’s two losses came at the hands of the Ravens and Saints. The 49ers only lost to the Ravens. Common games will get a shakeup in Week 14 when the 49ers face the Saints. There’s a very strong possibility Seattle and San Francisco wind up with an identical record in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Both teams are 7-1 with all their games left against NFC opponents. If these clubs finish with the same record, they’ll be tied in this fourth tiebreak step as well.

5. Strength of victory (combined record of teams beaten)

This is where the 49ers’ easy front half of their schedule hurts them. Their strength of victory going into Week 14 is just .408, while Seattle’s is .454. This one is going to be very tough to overcome since it’ll come largely down to the combined winning percentages of the teams’ uncommon opponents, especially if the 49ers and Seattle lose to the same teams.

The Seahawks played the Vikings and Eagles. The 49ers played the Packers and Washington. Barring a dramatic turnaround from Washington or a drastic collapse from the Vikings, the advantage would tick toward Seattle, but this won’t be determined until the final week of the season.

Realistically, this is as far as the teams get in the tiebreak procedures since finishing with identical strength of victory is fairly unlikely.

6. Strength of schedule (combined record of teams played)

The only way the 49ers win this one is if Washington and the Packers combine for a better record than the Vikings and Eagles. It’s not out of the question, but it’s a scenario San Francisco probably wants to avoid.

If the teams have losses to the same three clubs, and their strength of victory is the same, they’d also have the same strength of schedule. This ride could get wild.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

The 49ers are in a great spot for this tiebreaker. They lead the NFC in points scored while Seattle checks in at the No. 3 spot.  San Francisco also leads in points allowed, whereas the Seahawks are No. 10. This is one the 49ers may wish was higher up in the tiebreak hierarchy.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

San Francisco holds an even greater advantage here. They’re second in points scored and points allowed. Seattle is No. 5 in points scored and No. 23 points allowed.

9.  Best net points in common games

Unless something unprecedented happens, the 49ers have this one locked up. They’re outscoring common opponents by a substantial amount more than the Seahawks are. Their net points in common games between the two clubs is 131. Seattle is at 17 with four left. That’s a lot of ground to make up.

10. Best net points in all games

This is another one San Francisco has sewn up. Their point differential going into Week 14 is 166. The Seahawks’ is 36.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

The 49ers have scored 41 touchdowns and allowed 20. That’s good for 21 net touchdowns. Seattle has scored 40 and allowed 34 – a net of 6. Barring a catastrophe, San Francisco would win this tiebreaker, although the chances of it getting here are essentially none.

12. Coin toss

Help us all if this happens.

NFC Playoff Picture: Eagles control their own destiny after Cowboys lose to the Bears

Cowboys provide Eagles with more hope after falling to Bears

The Philadelphia Eagles will be playing for a share of first place in the NFC East on Monday night after the Dallas Cowboys dropped another one, this time to the Chicago Bears on the road.

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With the Bears 31-24 win at home, the Cowboys dropped to 6-7 on the season and now are set to be even in the standings if the Eagles can take care of business on Monday Night Football against the New York Giants.

Here’s how the NFC East currently stands.

NFC East Standings
1. 6-7 Cowboys
2. 5-7 Eagles
3. 3-9 Giants
4. 2-10 Redskins

Even with the loss by Dallas, the Eagles still need to win their final four games — all NFC East contest — to have any shot at winning the division.

A loss to the Rams before the Week 16 contest in Philadelphia against the Eagles, could put even more pressure on Dallas going down the stretch.

After the Eagles dismal loss to the Dolphins on the road last Sunday, Philadelphia has no room for error and they have no reason to take the Giants or any other team in the NFL lightly at this point.

With the Cowboys losing, the sense of urgency should be raised for an Eagles team that can finally live up to the massive preseason hype.

49ers may benefit from not clinching playoff spot in Week 14

The 49ers may actually want to avoid clinching a playoff berth in Week 14 vs. the Saints.

The 49ers may find themselves in a situation where they’re rooting against clinching a playoff spot Sunday afternoon.

For the second consecutive week, San Francisco can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Rams loss. The scenarios where the 49ers punch their ticket to the postseason for the first time since the 2013 season are straightforward:

49ers win, Rams lose or tie
49ers tie, Rams lose

Typically it would be a no-brainer for the 49ers to pull for a Rams loss in the afternoon following their 10:00 AM Pacific Time start in New Orleans. However, San Francisco may actually be rooting against their own self interest in regards to clinching a playoff berth Sunday.

The Rams are hosting the NFC West-leading Seahawks. A Seattle loss, regardless of the outcome of the 49ers’ game in New Orleans, helps San Francisco.

If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, San Francisco regains the NFC West lead and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

If the 49ers lose and the Seahawks lose, the two teams stay locked in a tie atop the NFC West with the 49ers getting a chance to even and win the division when the two teams square off in Seattle the final week of the season.

There’s an added layer that makes a delay in their playoff clinch preferable for the 49ers. They play the Rams in Week 16, so a win in that game would lock up a playoff spot even if the Rams hang around the next couple weeks. Beating the Rams would clinch that playoff berth if it hadn’t already happened.

While clinching a playoff berth is the first step toward the team’s goal of a Super Bowl, it would wind up benefitting them if that clinch doesn’t happen this weekend.

The NFL’s current playoff seeding system is unfair and needs to be scrapped

The NFL has a problem when the 6-6 Cowboys have a better playoff seed than the 10-2 49ers. Here’s how to fix it.

Two games threw the NFC’s playoff seeding system into a tizzy over the last couple of days. The 49ers’ 20-17 loss to the Ravens, and the Seahawks’ 37-30 win over the Vikings knocked San Francisco from first to fifth, and took Seattle to the second spot, behind New Orleans. Fair enough at the top, as Seattle and the Saints each have 10-2 records, and the Seahawks lost to the Saints, 33-27, in Week 3.

But things are not quite so fair at the bottom of the conference’s current seeding system. If the regular season ended today, the 49ers, who also have a 10-2 record with losses to the Ravens and Seahawks, would travel to Dallas during the wild-card round to face the Cowboys, who currently lead the NFC East with a record of… 6-6.

Yes, indeed. Kyle Shanahan’s team has lost one game in the conference, but they’d have to go on the road to play a team with four fewer victories, and three conference losses. One could argue in Dallas’ favor that they’re 4-0 in their own division, but these days, about the only teams that can’t beat NFC East teams are other NFC East teams.

Jimmy Kempski of PhilyVoice.com laid it all out nicely here:

Kempski also pointed out that when NFC East teams play outside their division through the first 13 weeks of the 2019 season, they have a 10-26 record. Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone through a comparative buzzsaw, especially in their own division, and the Cowboys get to host them?

Based on what? The ill-conceived idea of divisional supremacy. A few years back, the NFL’s schedule-makers weighted the last month of the season to inter-divisional games, to make those races more interesting. It was a great idea, but it also illustrates the advantage a team like Dallas has down the stretch. In their last four games, the Cowboys will play the Bears, Rams, Eagles, and Redskins. Philadelphia and Washington, the two other NFC East teams on that schedule, have a combined record of 8-16. Have we also mentioned that Dallas hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season?

Meanwhile, in their last four games, the 49ers face the Saints, Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks. Those last two opponents are also in the NFC West, and they have a combined record of 17-7.

Not exactly fair.

There’s one way to easily alter the current system, and though it may take the spark out of division championships, that’s a concept without much spark these days. Ask the 2010 Saints, who finished their regular season 11-5, but had to go on the road to play a 7-9 Seahawks team because Seattle had won an NFC West that didn’t have a single team with a winning record, and the Saints were in an NFC South with a 13-3 Falcons squad, and a 10-6 Buccaneers team.

Just as there was no way Seattle should have hosted that game (the “Beastquake” notwithstanding, there is no way the 49ers, or any other team whose situation is better than Dallas’, should have to travel to JerryWorld in the wild-card round.

So, let the NFL have its division champions, but take division wins out of the seeding process. Factor in everything else — overall records, head-to-head records, records against common opponents, strength of victory, strength of schedule, net points, net touchdowns, et al. But remove the divisional tie-breakers altogether, because they don’t make sense. There is no way a divisionao tie-breaker can work when one division has a point differential of plus-139, and another division has a point differential of minus-162.

Were the current seeds to be worked without divisional factors, it would look like this:

The AFC

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-4)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)

The only problem I see here is that the Bills leap over the Texans and Chiefs (who are slotted based on head-to-head win percentage) with their overall record, but their strength of schedule (.368) is by far the worst of any playoff entrant. But that’s the only alteration we’re making in the AFC seed — the Steelers would rank sixth based on their record, and that they have a better record than Tennessee (7-5) in conference games.

The NFC

1. New Orleans Saints (10-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)
4. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
5. Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
6. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)

No Cowboys? No problem. As has been proven, there’s no reason for the Cowboys, or any other NFC East team, to be anywhere near the postseason as it currently stands. Now, here’s where the NFC seeding gets interesting. The 49ers and Saints face off in Week 14. Currently, a San Francisco win would give Seattle the one-seed if the Seahawks beat the Rams. But if the 49ers win? It’s a different ballgame. San Francisco would become the second seed, and that would give even more weight to the Week 17 game between Seattle and San Francisco. But as it stands, the 49ers can beat the Saints by 300 points, and it won’t matter. They’re stuck in fifth because of that pesky Cowboys thing.

The NBA already took this step a few years back. In September, 2015, Commissioner Adam Silver announced that team owners had voted to remove divisional seeding, and instead reward teams based on their records. This happened after the Portland Trail Blazers were given the fourth seed in the Western Conference despite a 51-win record that would have put them behind the 55-win San Antonio Spurs, but because Portland won the Northwest Division, and the Spurs came second to the Houston Rockets in the Southwest Division, San Antonio got an unfair disadvantage, and fell to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.

The NBA also made other changes to their playoff format, making head-to-head results the first criteria for playoff seeding and home-court advantage between two teams with the same regular-season records. The next criteria? Whether a team won its division or not. That’s as it should be. The more you win, the better your seeding should be. And if you believe that this idea somehow reduces the magnitude of the divisional concept… well, if the system doesn’t work, you change the system. No matter how much tradition seems to be in the way.

NFC playoff picture: The Seahawks continue to defy gravity

Here’s how the NFC playoff picture is shaping up with four games left to play.

The Carolina Panthers aren’t making the playoffs this year. Any lingering doubt about that was dispelled with Sunday’s loss to the lowly Washington Redskins. If you don’t believe your eyes, the math should do.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Carolina’s postseason chances are now less than 1%. Minnesota is the team to watch, now. One more win or a tie for them plus a Carolina loss or tie would officially eliminate the Panthers from the race.

Here’s how the NFC playoff picture is shaping up with four games left to play.

Playoff teams

1. New Orleans Saints (10-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
5. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-4)

In the hunt

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (6-6)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
11. Carolina Panthers (5-7)

Seattle is the big riser, moving up from the No. 5 seed to the No. 2 seed courtesy of its win over Minnesota and a tie-breaker over San Francisco. This was the Seahawks’ sixth win of the season by seven points or less. History says they’re overdue for a dropoff but for now they keep defying gravity. They visit the Panthers in two weeks.

Elsewhere, Dallas is still in danger of losing that No. 4 seed, which at the moment is the equivalent of a buzz-saw. If they hold their position, the 49ers may go down as the toughest fifth seed in the history of the NFL playoffs. Neither the Cowboys nor the Eagles want that particular smoke.

The Vikings made it interesting but couldn’t break Kirk Cousins’ winless streak in Monday night games. They’re in danger of ceding the No. 6 seed to the Rams.

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How Rams can take over No. 6 seed on Sunday after Vikings’ loss

The Rams are still very much alive in the NFC.

The Rams got a little help from their bitter rivals on Monday night at CenturyLink Field. The Seattle Seahawks beat the Minnesota Vikings 37-30, not only taking over the NFC West lead, but also pulling the Rams one game closer to catching the Vikings for a wild-card berth.

Los Angeles went into Week 13 two games back of Minnesota and handled its business by beating the Cardinals 34-7, moving to 7-5 on the year. With the Vikings losing and falling to 8-4, the Rams are now just one game back for the sixth seed in the NFC.

Incredibly, after it seemed like the Rams had very little chance of making the playoffs, their chances are still alive and well. In fact, they can take over the No. 6 seed in the conference as early as Sunday night. It’s fairly simple, too.

They move to No. 6 in the NFC if:

  • Rams beat Seahawks AND Vikings lose to Lions

Both teams would be 8-5 and the Rams would hold the tiebreaker based on conference record. They don’t play the Vikings this season, so head-to-head won’t come into play, but Minnesota has one fewer game against the NFC remaining so the Rams are technically in control of that tiebreaker.

If the Rams happen to lose to the Seahawks in Week 14 and the Vikings beat Detroit, which many expect to happen, it’ll set Los Angeles back significantly. They would have to overcome a two-game deficit in three weeks, having to face the Cowboys, 49ers and Cardinals to close out the year.

The Rams would need to win at least two of their last three and have the Vikings lose at least two of their final three games, too. Minnesota faces the Lions, Chargers, Packers and Bears the rest of the way.

What’s at stake for 49ers vs. Ravens?

The 49ers badly need a win in Baltimore if they want to keep pace in the NFC.

The 49ers’ showdown with the Baltimore Ravens quickly became their most important contest of the year after the Seahawks and Saints both earned victories last weeks. San Francisco enters Sunday’s game in Baltimore with their first-round bye and home field advantage potentially on the line.

Here’s what’s at stake for the 49ers on Sunday:

With a win…

With a win the 49ers stay on top of the NFC and the NFC West. They also start 2-0 through that vaunted three game stretch vs. the Packers, Ravens and Saints.

San Francisco legitimized themselves as contenders in the NFC with their 37-8 thumping of Green Bay last week. They can leap to Super Bowl favorites if they knock off the Ravens.

A win would also be a step toward clinching a playoff spot. They can do so in Week 13 with victory and a Rams loss or tie.

With a loss…

A loss puts a couple of bad things into play. First, falling to 10-2 would allow the Seahawks to jump into first in the NFC West, and second place in the NFC. Seattle holds the tiebreaker with San Francisco, so they’d switch spots with the 49ers if they beat Minnesota on Monday night.

Moving to the No. 5 seed means the 49ers would lose home field advantage and their first-round bye.

Winning the NFC West is going to be imperative, and a loss Sunday puts immense pressure on the 49ers to stay in lockstep with Seattle until the two teams face off in Week 17. Ideally, that final game would be meaningless for the 49ers and they could rest their starters to get ready for the postseason. A loss to Baltimore puts that scenario much less realistic.