Rolling the dice: The biggest risks in the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is about managing risk. Every selection carries a bit of downside. Who are some risky propositions in the 2020 NFL Draft?

The NFL Draft process is an inexact science. Armed with all the possible information in the world, from film to testing data to metrics and analytics through information even gained from private investigators, 32 NFL teams have a wealth of data at their fingertips when they make every selection.

They still make mistakes. They still miss on players.

That being said, there are some players that might be a bit riskier of a selection than others. Even players that you are guaranteed to see come off the board in the first round come with some potential downsides. Here are some of those players.

Laviska Shenault Jr, WR, Colorado

(Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Laviska Shenault is one more the more tantalizing prospects in the entire 2020 NFL Draft. He seems like a player built for the modern NFL. The Colorado Buffaloes used him all over the field during his time in Boulder, aligning him at boundary receiver, slot receiver, running back, tight end, H-Back and even quarterback. To listen to his quarterback Steven Montez tell the story, the best route on a given play was the one Shenault was running.

Consider further that Shenault does this with a body composition and athletic testing numbers that are more in line with running backs like Jordan Howard and Larry Johnson. According to MockDraftable.com, these are some of the best comparisons for Shenault:

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There is a reason that Pro Football Focus compared Shenault to Saquon Barkley in their draft guide. He is built like a running back, can run people over like a running back, but aligns all over the field. Sounds too good to be true, right?

Well, it just might be.

Consider first the injury history. The Colorado WR suffered two different injuries during his sophomore season. First, he missed three games with a turf toe injury, which required surgery at the end of the season. Additionally, Shenault suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder near the end of the 2018 campaign after he returned to the lineup. He was able to play through the injury and finish the season, but underwent surgery in February of 2019 to repair the labrum.

Then prior to the NFL Combine, it was reported that Shenault was dealing with a lingering groin injury. He reported to Indianapolis and attempted to test, but then pulled out of the Combine and it was disclosed that he was undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia.

That playing style comes with a price.

Then there are legitimate on-field concerns. Shenault is a matchup weapon right now more than a refined wide receiver. A large part of his production came due to scheme and favorable matchups rather than him running a route and beating man coverage. He needs to work at the finer points of playing the position to be a consistent threat at the next level.

A perfect roadmap for Shenault can be found with Cordarelle Patterson. When he was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, that staff tried to utilize him as a true receiver. They expected him to have good footwork on his routes and clean releases against press. Minnesota asked him to do things like run a perfect comeback route against man coverage. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it did not completely work out.

Then when he arrived in New England to play for the Patriots, they asked him to…just be an offensive weapon. They used him on jet sweeps. They gave him a limited route tree to run. When injuries mounted they put him in the backfield and handed him the football.

So the scheme fit is going to be a big part of the story as well.

Provided he is healthy, and finds the right landing spot, Shenault can thrive at the next level. But those are two huge “ifs.” Given that the NFL on the whole has only started to think outside the box when it comes to the quarterback position – and how the league might be struggling when it comes to players like Isaiah Simmons – how confident are we that Shenault is going to find such a fit on draft night?

2020 NFL Draft: 7 OLs for Bills to consider in second round

Here are seven offensive linemen who could be on the board when the Bills pick at No. 54 at the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Buffalo Bills first scheduled draft selection won’t occur until Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft, as the team picks at No. 54 overall.

Luckily, the Bills do not have a glaring need on their roster, making this year’s draft quite intriguing. Buffalo’s front office, led by general manager Brandon Beane, can go in a multitude of directions with the pick, leaving quite a bit of interest and uncertainty with whom the Bills could select.

This final installment of our position-by-position series looks at the offensive line prospects and which players could still be on the board when the Bills make their first selection at the upcoming draft:

Buffalo Bills offensive guard Jon Feliciano (76) and center Mitch Morse. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Current roster

The Bills are returning their starting five offensive linemen from last year. This continuity is something of importance to the team’s front office, as they feel this will give the team an advantage in regard to improving again next season Center Mitch Morse, guard Quinton Spain, and tackle Cody Ford are all signed through the 2022 season. 

Buffalo has two starters, tackle Dion Dawkins and guard Jon Feliciano, whose contracts expire at the end of next season. In addition, three possible reserves, Ty Nsekhe, Daryl Williams, and Ike Boettger have deals ending in 2021. 

While it might not be a major need for this season, the Bills may look to the future and select a lineman who can grow into a starting job in 2021. It might be considered a reach for a second-round pick to be spent on a player who has a somewhat limited shot at starting in the future. However, no one can look into the crystal ball and predict the going rate for Dawkins and Felciano in free agency and how they could fit into the Bills salary cap situation. No one can predict if the Bills sees areas to improve upon in their current starting five, either. There’s always a chance the best player available could be an offensive lineman in Round 2. 

Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Jonah Jackson. Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Jonah Jackson | Ohio State

Jackson transferred from Rutgers and played his final season for the Buckeyes, starting 14 games at left guard. He was named a third-team Associated Press All-American and a first-team All-Big Ten player for his work during his 2019 campaign. He tends to be a bit stronger in pass protection. His run blocking was a bit inconsistent at times, but this is a trait that may be refined with a solid offensive line coach. He’s been placed between the second and fourth rounds of mock drafts, so it comes down to fit and able to develop at the next level. He’s experienced and has dealt with the best collegiate football has to offer, so it wouldn’t be surprising for him to be a long-term solution at an interior lineman position. 

Todd McShay changes it up for Ravens in 2-round mock draft

Draft analyst Todd McShay gives the Baltimore Ravens an interesting pick in the first round to shake things up in the 2020 NFL Draft.

As we get nearer to the 2020 NFL Draft, mock drafts are becoming a bit predictable for the Baltimore Ravens. With the Ravens having done nothing to address inside linebacker this offseason and few good options remaining, most mock drafts have sent Patrick Queen or Kenneth Murray Baltimore’s way in the first round.

ESPN’s Todd McShay noted that in his two-round mock draft, giving the Ravens TCU defensive tackle Ross Blacklock at No. 28 instead.

We’ve all been handing either Queen or Murray to Baltimore in this spot, and if either were available, one would still be the pick. But with no inside linebackers on the board within range, I’m instead turning my attention to the defensive front. Trading for Calais Campbell and bringing Matthew Judon back on the franchise tag do wonders for the edge rush, and new signee Derek Wolfe helps the interior a bit, but Blacklock’s quick hands and burst fit what the Ravens want up the middle.

It’s an interesting decision to have Baltimore draft a defensive lineman after they brought in Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe while re-signing Jihad Ward and Justin Ellis this offseason too. Right now, the Ravens’ defensive line might be one of their deepest position groups.

There’s a case to be made for Baltimore still drafting defensive linemen this year since half of their depth chart is only under contract for the 2020 season and the rest are only signed through 2021. But it’s hard to see them doing it in the first round with so many more pressing needs remaining. While the Ravens have certainly stuck to the BPA model, Blacklock seems like a stretch at the end of the first round anyway considering Luke Easterling of Draft Wire ranks him the 11th best interior defensive lineman in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, wide receiver Tee Higgins, cornerback A.J. Terrell, center Cesar Ruiz, and running back D’Andre Swift were all still on the board when the Ravens picked and all look to be better options for Baltimore given their most pressing needs. But the Ravens have proven before they’ll take the player they love if he’s the highest rated on their board.

Click on the next page to see who McShay gave the Ravens with their two second-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft.

8 draft prospects the Cardinals might value because of PFF rating

It seemed last year Arizona borrowed heavily from Pro Football Focus – here are some players they may like this year if they do so again.

It’s no secret that many believe that Arizona borrowed heavily from Pro Football Focus’ draft rankings in the 2019 draft: 

Kyler Murray was the top-ranked player on PFF’s board when they selected him first. Byron Murphy was the top-ranked player at the time Arizona took him at pick 33 and other players like Zack Allen and Andy Isabella were highly rated. 

If they follow this model again, here are several players the Cards could value more so than others. Here are some. 

Utah RB Zack Moss

Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

 The Cardinals have already met with Moss at the combine, and one of the reasons may be his high marks from PFF, who have him rated as their top running back over such household names as DeAndre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. 

Moss gets these high marks for his tackle-breaking ability, his hard running style and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Some have even compared him to Marshawn Lynch.

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PFF names massive IOL at top prospect for the Steelers

PFF picks Netane Muti as the Steelers top prospect.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won’t make a pick in the 2020 NFL Draft until the second day barring a trade up. But they don’t worry in the least considering they were able to land All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for their 2020 first-round pick.

However, it does put the spotlight squarely on their second-round pick to fill one of the many significant holes on this team. One of which could be at offensive guard if Pittsburgh chooses to release Ramon Foster to help create cap space. The good folks over at Pro Football Focus are leaning that way and the prospect they have paired up with Pittsburgh as the best fit is Fresno State guard Netane Muti.

Here’s part of their analysis of the Steelers guard situation and how Muti fits.

Not too many people are on board with Muti as IOL1 hype train, but that’s where we are at PFF. Muti comes in as the highest-ranked center or guard prospect on the PFF Big Board (32nd overall). Injuries have robbed us of seeing extensive action at the collegiate level — he has played just over 300 total snaps each of the past two seasons. What he showed in limited action those two years, along with impressive tape as a freshman in 2017 against NFL-caliber players like Ed Oliver, was enough for us. Muti recorded run-blocking and pass-blocking grades of 80.0 or higher in that 2017 freshman season. Putting up 44 reps on the bench press at the combine puts an asterisk next to the kind of power that he plays with. 

Muti is an impressive prospect. Hugely powerful and a finisher. I’ve preferred former Ohio State guard Jonah Jackson just because he’s more of an athlete but Muti would be very much a Steelers type of pick.

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WATCH! Fresno State lineman Netane Muti knocks out 44 reps of 225

Fresno State offensive guard Netane Muti put on a show of strength Thursday during the bench press at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. Check out the way the 6-3, 307-pounder pushes out those reps to the tune of 44 times at 225 pounds. BEST OF THE …

Fresno State offensive guard Netane Muti put on a show of strength Thursday during the bench press at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

Check out the way the 6-3, 307-pounder pushes out those reps to the tune of 44 times at 225 pounds.

Mutane decided to forego his senior season at Fresno State, making the decision in early January.

“Through the guidance of the coaches and staff at Fresno State, I have learned what it means to be a leader,” Muti wrote. “The importance of hard work and how the game of football can be taken away from you at any moment. Most importantly, I have learned that in life or football, when an opportunity presents itself, you have to take it with both arms and never look back.

“With that being said and after much thought and discussion with my family, I have decided to forgo my senior season to enter the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Muti does have an injury history teams need to factor into their scouting.

He played the first three games this season before a foot injury sidelined him the final nine games. Muti also missed 12 of 14 games in 2018. And he did not play as a true freshman in 2016 after suffering an Achilles’ injury.

Meet Netane Muti, Fresno State’s gem of an OL prospect

Check out Draft Wire’s exclusive interview with Fresno State offensive lineman Netane Muti

If your favorite team is looking for a mauling offensive lineman in the 2020 NFL draft, they might find this year’s best value in Fresno State’s Netane Muti.

Muti recently spoke exclusively with Draft Wire about his work to bounce back from injury, the best players he’s ever faced in college, and why he’s making the early jump to the pros.

JM: You made the decision to forego your senior season and enter the 2020 NFL draft. What led to that decision?

NM: A lot of things went into me making that decision. I sat down with my trusted circle and that’s the decision we reached. My injury history played a bit of a role in that. I didn’t wanna go back and get hurt again. I felt like right now is my best chance to go and compete at the next level. I’m trying to make it happen.

JM: This can be a long and taxing process. What are you most excited about?

NM: I’m just excited to start training and get ready for what’s next. I’m trying to get my body back 100%. I’m excited to show what I can do when my time comes.

JM: How are you doing health-wise right now?

NM: I feel pretty good right now. I’m still rehabbing a bit. I’m still working out and stuff. I’m probably about 70% right now.

JM: How did playing at Fresno State help prepare you for what’s next?

NM: Playing at Fresno State was a fun and exciting time for me. I fought through a lot of hardships there and it makes me feel like I can accomplish and overcome anything.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

JM: What would you say is your positional fit at the next level?

NM: I would probably say guard. I expect to play at one of the guard spots at the next level. I don’t think I have the height or weight to stay at the tackle position. With that said, I’m happy to play whatever they ask me to play. That’s just my honest opinion. Guard and center probably makes more sense.

JM: Is there a scheme that you enjoy playing in more so than others?

NM: I don’t think so. Not really. At the end of the day, I just do what I’m told. I’m happy to follow the orders of my coaches and execute whatever’s expected of me. It comes down to that. I feel good about whatever the call is. I’m just trying to execute it to the best of my ability.

JM: Playing at Fresno State allowed you to compete against some of the best competition college football has to offer. Who are some of the best defensive linemen you went up against?

NM: There was quite a few of them. Vita Vea definitely comes to mind. He was a first round draft pick. Da’Ron Payne was another first rounder. Ed Oliver is a beast of course. Those three definitely stick out to me.

JM: What’s your favorite way to demoralize your opponent?

NM: I love that question (laughs). I just love the ability to put your face in the dirt. I like taking their will to play the game away from them. It makes me feel good. Does that make sense? Does that make me sound crazy? (laughs)

JM: If you don’t feel that way, you’re not a true offensive linemen.

NM: Yeah, right? It makes me happy (laughs). I don’t even fully know why. It just makes me happy to see their faces down there. They’re all sad and defeated. I’m just laying on top of them and chilling (laughs).

JM: You’re gonna meet a lot of NFL teams throughout this process. Is there one quarterback or even running back that you’d love to block for?

NM: No, not really. Wherever I go, I just wanna demolish the defensive linemen basically (laughs). Which team it’s for doesn’t matter to me. I’ve never really thought of it like that. Of course I’m excited to block for my team. I’m just gonna go out there and do my job.

JM: In closing, how will you look back on your time at Fresno State?

NM: It’s gonna be crazy to look back on things one day. If I get the chance to play in the NFL and compete at the ultimate level, I look forward to coming back to Fresno State and serving as a success story for those guys and for the generations after me. I look forward to helping them with everything that’s going on over there. I’m always gonna be apart of the community over there.

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4 NFL Draft replacements for potential Saints salary cap casualties

The New Orleans Saints face tough salary cap cuts, opening the door for cheap replacements through prospects picked in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The New Orleans Saints are headed for an offseason full of difficult decisions, and they’ll struggle to address all of their needs even if the 2020 salary cap reaches the high-end estimates of $200 million. Some players will restructure or renegotiate contracts — we previous discussed four big candidates — but others could get released outright.

If the Saints go that route, here are several potential replacements in the 2020 NFL Draft. We’ll be focused on prospects available in rounds two through four, because the Saints will probably be targeting a position of greater need with their first-round selection.

Potential loss: CB Janoris Jenkins

Salary cap savings: $11.25 million

Replacement: A.J. Terrell, Clemson

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Terrell hasn’t made a decision yet on whether he’ll declare, but he’s someone the Saints should keep an eye on even if “Jackrabbit” does stick around for 2020. Terrell is an accomplished man-cover corner who can run with anyone, even if Ja’Marr Chase won that matchup in Monday night’s national title game (and it’s not like Terrell was the first cornerback Chase beat this season). There isn’t a team in the NFL that has enough cornerbacks, and the Saints should be mindful of that with so many pending free agents at the position.