Wisconsin’s play vs. Nebraska won’t cut it against Minnesota

An initial reaction to the Wisconsin Badgers’ victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

The Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday. They won by 16 points. They won without too much drama. Yet, given how flawed the Huskers are, a strong Wisconsin team would have blown the doors off this game. As it was, Nebraska was still in the hunt midway through the fourth quarter. Wisconsin needed a red-zone stop to finally feel good about this game. Until then, the Badgers had to legitimately doubt whether they could put away Nebraska.

That is a problem. Victory should not — and cannot — obscure that reality. Wisconsin handled a bad team well enough to win, but not nearly well enough to inspire confidence about the Nov. 30 matchup against Minnesota on the road. We will continue to unpack various nuances of that game — it’s not as though next week’s Purdue game will offer a hugely revealing insight into the Minnesota contest — but for now, we can simply assert this basic point: Wisconsin’s level of play was nowhere near what Paul Chryst needs it to be against Minnesota.

If the Badgers play like this against the Golden Gophers, they might not merely lose. They might get run out of the building and feel very dissatisfied about the nature of their season. Sure, Minnesota is impressive (we’ll see if the Gophers beat Iowa; this article was written before the start of that game in Iowa City). If the Gophers happen to beat the Badgers by playing a phenomenal game, so be it. Wisconsin can’t control how well Minnesota plays. Wisconsin can control how the Badgers play, and right now, the Badgers aren’t playing particularly well, especially on defense.

Yes, the offense still needs work. Jonathan Taylor can’t keep fumbling (his fumble at Illinois was very costly). Jack Coan has to be more accurate. The offense isn’t a finished product. Yet, the offensive line is knocking the snot out of opposing defensive fronts. Wisconsin can beat Minnesota based on the way the O-line is performing.

On defense, however? Good luck standing up to Minnesota’s speed at wide receiver or the Gophers’ pace, or P.J. Fleck’s scheme. If Nebraska could bust open big holes; if the Huskers could gain first downs with the run on third and seven; if Scott Frost could make Jim Leonhard’s defense look bad for most of the first three quarters; if a 34-14 lead wasn’t entirely safe (and it wasn’t, not with Nebraska being 15 yards from making the score 34-28); and if the back seven was slow to defend a number of downfield pass plays yet again, how will Wisconsin contain Minnesota’s offense?

That question — as we come closer to Nov. 30 — has to dominate coaches’ meetings. It has to be a central talking point on the practice field. It has to be the topic Wisconsin’s defensive players think about. What happened against Nebraska wasn’t acceptable. Victory can’t allow the Badgers’ defense to ignore that point.

Wisconsin-Nebraska odds: Cornhuskers big underdogs at home

Previewing Saturday’s Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers college football matchup, with NCAA football betting odds, picks and best bets

The Wisconsin Badgers (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten West) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-5, 2-4) square off in Lincoln Saturday at noon p.m. ET, as the home side is looking to spring the upset and keep its faint postseason hopes alive.

We analyze the Wisconsin-Nebraska odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Wisconsin at Nebraska: Three things you need to know

1. After opening the season 5-1 against the spread, the Badgers are 0-3 ATS across the past three. The Badgers allowed just 29 total points over their first six, but have yielded 84 total points in the past three.

2. Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor continues to chug along, posting a Big Ten-best 1,259 rushing yards with 19 total touchdowns. He leads Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins for the conference title by 59 yards and four touchdowns.

3. Despite allowing 84 total points over the past three, the Badgers are still third in the nation in total yards allowed (233.3) and passing yards allowed (147.0) per game. They’re also seventh in the country with just 12.6 PPG allowed.


Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM!


Wisconsin at Nebraska: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:15 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 13

Moneyline (ML)

The last time the Badgers (-910) faced off against the Cornhuskers (+445) they were 41-24 winners in Madison back on Oct. 6, 2018. You can expect similar results in this one, as the Huskers just seem to be stuck in neutral. While the Badgers ‘should’ win, remember the Illini game. They fell hard in Champaign when favored by 30.5 points, proving nothing is a guarantee. Avoid the ML when it is more than -160 or -170.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Wisconsin to win would return a profit of $1.10.

Against the Spread (ATS)

WISCONSIN (-14.5, -106) should come in focused and with a legit chance at a spot in the Big Ten title game should Minnesota slip up in its battle for Floyd of Rosedale at Iowa, as well as its battle Nov. 30 in the Twin Cities vs. these Badgers.

Nebraska (+14.5, -115) shouldn’t offer up much resistance here. While Wisconsin’s 2-5 ATS mark in the past seven road games and 1-4 ATS mark in the past five Big Ten tilts is worrisome, let me quell your concerns. The Huskers are 0-6 ATS in the past six league games and 0-5 ATS in the past five vs. winning sides.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total (50.5) is going to be a close shave, and I really have no lean one way or the other. Wisconsin can pile up the points, but its strength is on the ground which tends to lead to Under results. The Under is 5-1 in the Badgers past six on the road, but the Over is 13-5-1 in the Cornhuskers past 19 inside the Big Ten.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1623]

Wisconsin should revel in Nebraska’s failures

An explanation of why Nebraska’s failures are meaningful to the Wisconsin Badgers, and should give UW fans a measure of satisfaction.

Let’s be clear at the outset of this piece: When I say that the Wisconsin Badgers should revel in the failures of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, I don’t mean to imply or suggest that Wisconsin fans should laugh at Nebraska. No. This is not about spitting at or looking down on an opponent. I wish to convey the point that Nebraska’s inability to rise to the top tier of the Big Ten should make Wisconsin fans happy. This is an important reality to grasp on the eve of the latest football reunion between the two schools on Saturday.

Wisconsin fans, everyone else in the Big Ten, and all other college football fans in the United States know that Nebraska is immersed in an identity crisis. The Huskers were solid under Bo Pelini, often winning nine games in a season and coming close to winning a conference championship on a few occasions, but they have never regained the top-tier status they had under Frank Solich in 2001. Nebraska has played in a handful of huge games this century, but the Huskers have clearly lost their status as a program which is annually relevant in college football.

This is not funny. This is not worth laughing at. It is a reality Wisconsin fans should cherish because of what the Badgers have been able to achieve… and how they have achieved it.

What was the foundation of Nebraska’s elite status in college football, in the Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne years? Big offensive linemen knocking the snot out of the opposition. What is and has been Wisconsin’s calling card since Barry Alvarez remade and transformed the program in the early 1990s? Big offensive linemen knocking the snot out of the opposition (much as the Badgers did against Iowa this past Saturday).

The thing which made Nebraska great is the thing which made Wisconsin great… and Wisconsin is continuously winning with this identity firmly intact. Nebraska can’t get those farm-grown linemen. Nebraska can’t develop elite offensive line play. Nebraska can’t regain sledgehammer force in the trenches. That is WISCONSIN’S brand. That is WISCONSIN’S identity.

Here is something for Wisconsin fans to briefly contemplate: Yes, Minnesota might win the Big Ten West this year (though hopefully, Iowa will rise up and enable the Badgers to win the division on Nov. 30 in Minneapolis), but even if the Gophers do win the division, Wisconsin could go 10-2 in this 2019 regular season. Do you want to know how many 10-win regular seasons Nebraska has had since 2001, when it played Miami for the national title? Two.

Want to know how many 10-win (or more) regular seasons Wisconsin has had since 2014? Three. Want to know how many 10-win regular seasons Wisconsin has had this decade? Five. It will be six if the Badgers can beat Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota to round out their 12-game slate in 2019.

Nebraska fans would kill for Wisconsin’s level of success. Think about that. Nebraska was playing for national championships 25 years ago, when Barry Alvarez got the Badgers off the ground and roaring. The 1995 Nebraska team is the greatest team I have personally witnessed in my years following college football. Who would have possibly imagined 20 years ago that in 2019, Wisconsin — and not Nebraska — would be nationally relevant?

Nebraska’s failures magnify Wisconsin’s successes. Wisconsin’s successes make it all the more striking that the Huskers haven’t been able to replicate their own formula, the formula Barry Alvarez used and passed along to both Bret Bielema and now Paul Chryst.

No one needs to laugh at Nebraska’s misfortune. Simply know that each year Nebraska fails to recover or revive itself, is a year in which Wisconsin retains the identity of being the foremost program with a commitment to muscular and punishing line play. What Nebraska used to be is what Wisconsin now is — maybe not to the extent that the Badgers are playing for national titles, but certainly when viewed through the prism of being nationally relevant and a good bet to win 10 games a year.

Wisconsin fans don’t have to be happy due to Nebraska’s struggles. They should be happy, however, that Nebraska’s failures make it easier to marvel at and appreciate the Badgers’ successes over an extended period of time.

Wisconsin, not Ohio State, is Nebraska’s main Big Ten roadblock

A reminder about the brief period of Big Ten history connecting the Wisconsin Badgers and the Nebraska Cornhuskers

It is not breaking news to note that the Wisconsin Badgers, not the Ohio State Buckeyes (or Penn State Nittany Lions, or Michigan Wolverines), represent the foremost roadblock to progress for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. As the latest Wisconsin-Nebraska game approaches this Saturday, it is worth offering a reminder that the Badgers are more responsible for holding back the Huskers than anyone else in the Big Ten Conference.

Wisconsin holds the distinction of being the only team to play — and beat — Nebraska in a Big Ten Championship Game. Before the divisions were realigned, the Badgers and Huskers played in the 2012 game. A Wisconsin blowout not only prevented Bo Pelini from giving Nebraska its first (only) conference championship of the 21st century; it humiliated Pelini and left a lasting mark which, in the course of time, helped usher him out of Lincoln.

Yes, Pelini’s lack of people skills — an abrasive manner which rubbed people the wrong way — led to his exit from Nebraska, but if he had been winning conference titles, Pelini’s lack of tact and decorum probably would have been tolerated to a much bigger degree. When Nebraska and Wisconsin moved into the same division, the Big Ten West, Wisconsin hounded Nebraska and remained the foremost obstacle for the Huskers on their path to Big Ten glory.

Nebraska has beaten Wisconsin only once since the Huskers joined the Big Ten at the start of this decade. Nebraska has never beaten the Badgers since the formation of the current Big Ten West. We can point out that if Nebraska ever does win the Big Ten West, Ohio State will probably be looming in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Yet, it seems rather silly to center Ohio State in this discussion when Wisconsin has been extremely effective in barring Nebraska from Indianapolis. The Badgers haven’t needed Ohio State’s help, thank you very much. UW has made sure that Nebraska has remained without a conference title this century.

If Scott Frost wants to improve his program, he has to beat the team which will stare down his Cornhuskers on Saturday. The latest Wisconsin-Nebraska game is a time to remind ourselves which school stands squarely in Nebraska’s path on the road to revival.

Five Nebraska players who Badger fans need to know

Here are five Cornhuskers who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout Saturday’s matchup between Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Fresh off of a crucial victory over Iowa last weekend to maintain possession of the Heartland Trophy, No. 13 Wisconsin hits the road to Lincoln to face a stumbling Nebraska squad on Saturday.

Head coach Scott Frost’s program has been one of the great disappointments in all of college football this season after opening as the No. 24 team in the land. While the Badgers were able to snap their two-game losing streak and stay alive in the Big Ten West race by taking care of business against the Hawkeyes, the 4-5 Cornhuskers are reeling after suffering three straight losses and mustering just one victory in their last five contests.

Wisconsin has won six in a row against Nebraska and is a 14.5-point favorite as of Tuesday, but Memorial Stadium can often be a difficult environment for visiting teams, especially for a rivalry game such as this. However, if an upset is in the cards, the Cornhuskers will need their stars at their best.

Here are five players on the opposing sideline who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout the game.

1. Adrian Martinez – Quarterback

2019 stats: 59.5% passing, 1,491 yds, 7 TD, 6 INT/4.1 YPC, 399 yds, 5 TD

Nebraska’s upset hopes will ride squarely on the shoulders of its sophomore signal-caller.

A dark horse Heisman candidate in the eyes of many college football pundits leading into the season after a huge year in 2018 as a true freshman, Martinez hasn’t come remotely close to living up to that hype through the Cornhuskers’ first nine games. His accuracy has regressed and he’s already tossed six interceptions so far this season, which is the fourth most in the Big Ten. He’s only No. 9 in the conference in passing efficiency rating as well.

Nonetheless, as Martinez goes, so too does the Nebraska offense, which is often the case with quarterbacks but especially true here given that he is the team’s second-leading rusher as well as its top passer.

The Cornhuskers will likely need Martinez to have his best outing of the season against the Badgers if a victory is on the table. If he can replicate his state line from last season’s 41-24 loss at Camp Randall (24-42, 384 yds, 2 TD to go along with 13 carries for 57 yards), they’ll have a shot.

2. JD Spielman – Wide Receiver

2019 stats: 35 rec, 688 yds (19.7 avg), 2 TD

Nov 2, 2019; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Purdue Boilermakers safety Cory Trice (23) runs Nebraska Cornhuskers receiver JD Spielman (10) out of bounds in the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

A Third-Team All-Big Ten selection a season ago, Spielman has followed up his outstanding play in 2018 by serving as Nebraska’s most dangerous weapon on offense this year, though there’s a case to be made for the next player on this list as well.

As he has been throughout his entire career in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers’ leading receiver has been a big play waiting to happen whenever he touches the ball, ranking No. 5 in the conference in average yards per catch. The Badgers are all too familiar with Spielman’s playmaking ability after he torched them for a school-record 209 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions in last year’s meeting in Madison.

Wisconsin could have its hands full with Spielman again this weekend, as the junior wideout is red-hot coming off of back to back dominant showings; he had 6 receptions for 123 yards in the Nov. 2 loss to Purdue and racked up 5 catches for 95 yards the week before in the loss to Indiana.

NEXT: Wan’Dale Robinson/Mohamed Barry/Lamar Jackson