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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Utah State Aggies hope to end a rollercoaster year with a win against Georgia State Panthers. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Who will be more motivated to chase one last W?

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL: Georgia State Panthers (6-6, 4-4 Sun Belt) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6, 4-4 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID

WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 38 degrees

TV: ESPN

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.

RADIO: The Georgia State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Georgia State Radio Network, including flagship 88.5 FM (WRAS) in Atlanta. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between Georgia State and Utah State.

LAST GAME: Georgia State lost on the road to Old Dominion, 25-24, while Utah State defeated New Mexico on the road in double overtime, 44-41.

WEBSITES: GeorgiaStateSports.com, the official Georgia State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Georgia State | Utah State

ODDS: Utah State -2.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Utah State by 0.8

FEI PROJECTION: Utah State by 1.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Utah State 50.72% win probability (33.11-32.87)

The Utah State Aggies are bowling for the third straight season under head coach Blake Anderson, but they’ll hope to avoid a repeat of last year’s disappointing postseason performance against the Georgia State Panthers in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

For their part, the Panthers are mired in a slump and head into the game without their top offensive weapon, but you never know what might happen when Spuddy Buddy is involved.

Here’s how the Panthers and Aggies can finish their year with a win.

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𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝟮,𝟳𝟬𝟬′ 𝗨𝗽 🏔️#LightItBlue | #BeatUtahState pic.twitter.com/KUXtW6hdiH

— GSU Football (@GeorgiaStateFB) December 20, 2023

Three Keys to a Georgia State Victory

1. Don’t abandon the running game now.

The Panthers boasted one of the Sun Belt’s best running backs throughout the regular season, but first-team all-conference star Marcus Carroll has already bolted to Missouri through the transfer portal and what remains at the position didn’t see a ton of action throughout 2023. The team’s listed starter, Freddie Brock, was a one-time starter at FCS Maine but only had six carries in three games for Georgia State in 2023.

GSU may want to see what he and true freshman Jaylen Carter can do, anyway, since Utah State got pushed hard in the trenches over the last two weeks of the regular season. Both Boise State and New Mexico averaged over seven yards per carry, but the Aggies have just been tested on the ground more frequently than anyone else in the Mountain West, period, seeing an average of 41.6 rushing attempts per game and allowing 4.79 YPC.

2. Make the Aggies offense pay for potential mistakes.

It’s no secret that Utah State has struggled with protecting the football for most of the season, evidenced by the 24 giveaways that are the second-most among Mountain West offenses. It remains to be seen, however, if that will change with Levi Williams under center for the second straight game, but they had just one in the regular season finale against New Mexico.

If GSU is going to put themselves in a position to score an upset, though, they’re going to have to figure out how to keep close tabs on USU’s playmakers. On the one hand, the Panthers defended just 38 passes in 12 regular season games, the fewest in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, they also had rotten fumble luck and recovered just six of 17 balls to hit the turf. When the opportunity arises to flip a field, the Georgia State defense can’t afford to let them slip away.

3. Be the more disciplined team.

Another non-secret is that penalties have frustrated Utah State’s hopes this year just as much as their erratic play on offense. Only four FBS teams had more than the 7.8 penalties per game that the Aggies drew in 2023, and only New Mexico racked up more than USU’s 74.3 penalty yards per game.

Assuming both teams play somewhere close to their average, this is an area where Georgia State could benefit from favorable field position simply by avoiding flags. In the regular season, the Panthers tallied six on average for 53.4 yards per contest.

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🤫👀#AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/2I9XpuVW2k

— USU Football (@USUFootball) December 19, 2023

Three Keys to a Utah State Victory

1. Let Jalen Royals do his thing.

Among Utah State’s triumvirate of pass-catching threats, Royals’s breakout campaign could spell trouble for a shaky Georgia State defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Royals had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards in the regular season and posted both a 72.7% contested catch rate and just four drops on 94 total targets.

The Panthers, meanwhile, struggled mightily against opposing quarterbacks down the stretch, allowing a 68.3% completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt, and 14 touchdowns in four November games. In other words, should the junior from Powder Springs, Georgia finish as the game’s offensive MVP, don’t be shocked.

2. Keep Darren Grainger contained.

The Georgia State quarterback will finish his collegiate career as one of the most prolific playmakers in program history, and he’ll provide a test for a Utah State defense that has already seen several mobile signal-callers throughout the season. Grainger might be singular, though, in that he led all Sun Belt quarterbacks with 625 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in addition to completing 67% of his throws at seven yards per attempt.

It may be telling that Grainger hasn’t been as impactful with his legs during the team’s current five-game losing streak, averaging 4.59 yards per carry (before adjusting for sacks). If the MJ Tafisi-led front seven can hold that line, that could bode well for their hopes.

3. Let Levi Williams cook.

You may recall that the last time Williams played in the Potato Bowl, two years ago, he put up video game numbers for Wyoming in a rout of Kent State. That propensity for major damage with his arm and his legs popped again in the last game of this regular season, when he ran for 153 yards and threw for 198 against the Lobos, accounting for five total touchdowns.

Given that he’s soon to prepare for Navy SEAL training, why not give him one more opportunity to do heavy lifting on both fronts? According to CollegeFootballData.com, Georgia State has posted a 20% defensive stuff rate but the 6-foot-5 and 230-pound Williams is a big target to bring down consistently over four quarters. Enabling him to be a threat alongside Robert Briggs, Rahsul Faison, and Davon Booth will only give the Panthers one more thing to worry about.

Prediction

As wildly uneven as the Aggies could be this year, they haven’t had the same kind of struggles that the Panthers have faced and they certainly enter the bowl game much more intact. While it seems safe to bet the over, at least, Utah State should have the offensive firepower to win this one handily.

Utah State 34, Georgia State 21

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: First Look At The Georgia State Panthers

Utah State’s Sun Belt foe in the upcoming Potato Bowl knows a thing or two about having an adventurous season.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Can the Panthers catch a break?

This year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will mark Utah State’s fifth overall appearance in the Boise-based game, but the blue turf is brand-new territory for the Georgia State Panthers.

GSU will be just the second Sun Belt Conference team to take the blue turf in the postseason, but the Panthers are arguably the weakest of the seven teams that the Mountain West will face as part of its bowl slate. They head to Idaho on a substantial slide and with key on-field contributors out the door, so the pressure will be on to find an upper hand against the unpredictable Aggies and finish the year on a high note.

Here’s what Utah State fans need to know about the Panthers.

2023 Georgia State Panthers — Team Profile

Conference: Sun Belt

2023 Record: 6-6 (3-5 Sun Belt)

SP+ ranking: 101st

FEI ranking: 102nd

Sagarin rating: 112th

Head coach: Shawn Elliott (seventh year, 42-49 overall).

2023 in a nutshell: For a brief time, it looked like the Panthers might be in position for a real breakthrough this fall. The team opened 6-1, the lone blemish a stumble at home against Troy, but the realities of the super-competitive Sun Belt Conference pulled GSU back to earth. After scoring those six wins by an average of 12.8 points, they dropped the final five games of the year by an average of 23.2.

Best wins: at Coastal Carolina (7-5), at Louisiana (6-6), vs. Marshall (6-6)

Key Players

Darren Grainger, QB

Georgia State football has only existed for a little over a decade, but Grainger might already be the best quarterback in the program’s young history. He already owns team records for career total offense and career total touchdowns and, in 2023, completed 67% of his 336 attempts for 2,364 yards and 17 touchdowns against a 2% interception rate. He also led the Sun Belt’s QBs with 625 rushing yards and tied for the conference lead with eight rushing touchdowns, so while he struggled in the second half of the regular season, he’s more than talented enough to do damage against an often-shaky Aggies defense.

Darren Grainger to Robert Lewis for 97 yards! 🤯💥
Georgia State with a deep strike to add to its lead@_DarrenGrainger @Robert1K_

pic.twitter.com/XyUGh4aTrq

— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) September 16, 2023

Travis Glover, OT

One of the longest-tenured Panthers in program history, the Potato Bowl will mark Glover’s 58th career start. At 6-foot-6 and 323 pounds, he also happens to be the biggest player on the roster. He’s spent time at tackle and guard across his five seasons at GSU, but 2023 was spent protecting Grainger’s blind side. Though he gave up four sacks in just over 800 snaps, Glover allowed just 12 total quarterback pressures. He’ll be a tough assignment for whichever Aggies defensive end lines up across from him.

Gavin Pringle, CB

A three-time all-Patriot League defender at Bucknell, Pringle transferred to Atlanta last off-season and made his lone year at GSU count. He finished the regular season as one of five Sun Belt defenders to grab four interceptions, and he added four pass breakups, four tackles for loss, and 37 total tackles to land on the third-team all-conference defense earlier this month.

𝙋𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙞𝙘𝙠 𝙨𝙞𝙭 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙋𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 💥💯

➜ @GavinPringle_

📺 : ESPN+ https://t.co/F14SH4lrbj#LightItBlue | #SoundTheHorn pic.twitter.com/xcSWacd5UH

— GSU Football (@GeorgiaStateFB) September 1, 2023

Tailique Williams, WR

Leading wide receiver Robert Lewis has already left the program and transferred to Auburn, leaving his primary running mate to shoulder a larger load in the Panthers passing game. Williams took 90.2% of his snaps out of the slot, per PFF, and finished the regular season with 46 catches, 581 yards, and five touchdowns. He also contributed to special teams, earning an average of 17.7 yards on ten kick returns, meaning the redshirt junior might be a problem in more ways than one.

Justin Abraham, LB

Abraham broke into Georgia State’s starting lineup in the second half of 2022 and had a fine year in his first full campaign as a starter. According to PFF, the Hartsville, South Carolina has made 38 total stops on the strength of 76 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks, so he’ll likely be a key disruptor in the Panthers front seven.

Overview:

Offense

The story of the Panthers offense is closely tied to their tale of two seasons. On the whole, Georgia State finished 75th in the country by averaging 2.07 points per drive and 71st with 45% of available yards earned per drive, but both marks actually represent a small step back from 2022 and obscure their struggles as the year progressed. In a nutshell, the team scored 34.8 points per game in their six victories and 16.7 in their six losses.

Personnel losses to the transfer portal since season’s end will only compound the problem for the bowl game, as leading rusher Marcus Carroll, leading receiver Robert Lewis, and offensive tackle Montavious Cunningham are all gone. Former Maine transfer Freddie Brock seems likely to be the next man up at running back, while Jacari Carter (Jerry Rice Award finalist at Merrimack in 2021; 34 catches, 227 yards in 2023) and Cadarrius Thompson may get first crack at helping Grainger and Williams through the air.

Defense

Much like their offensive counterparts, the Panthers defense also suffered a substantial decline in performance as the regular season wore on. For the year, they managed to give up 2.46 points per drive and 50.9% of available yards per drive — 89th and 94th among FBS defenses, respectively — but tougher offenses like James Madison and LSU tore them up in the second half of the campaign: GSU gave up 40 points in four straight contests, then dropped the season finale at Old Dominion on the final play of the game.

That could spell trouble against an explosive Utah State offense, though losses have been limited to veteran cornerback Bryquice Brown, a transfer portal departure; and linebacker Jontrey Hunter, who recently declared for the NFL Draft, as of this writing. On the other hand, CollegeFootballData.com notes that the Panthers posted a respectable 20% stuff rate and gave up just 4.24 yards per carry on the ground, so a front seven that’s still laden with veterans could pose a stiff challenge for the Aggies’ trio of running backs. Linebackers Abraham and Kevin Swint each tied for the team lead with seven tackles for loss, but Jordan Veneziale, Javon Denis, and Henry Bryant each had five TFLs, as well.

The bigger concern is whether GSU can keep Utah State from having their way through the air. Among the 14 teams in the Sun Belt, the Panthers ranked 12th in opponents’ completion rate (65.4%), 13th in yards per attempt allowed (8.5), and 14th by opponent passer rating (154.76). Pringle and senior safety TyGee Leach (68 tackles, seven TFLs, five pass breakups, one INT) will lead the charge here, though redshirt freshman Izaiah Guy might be a noteworthy name to follow as Brown’s potential replacement.

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Utah State Football: Aggies To Face Georgia State In Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

The Aggies look to finish a wild 2023 campaign by defeating the Panthers in Boise.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The Aggies face another Sun Belt opponent.

Few things have gone as planned for the Utah State Aggies this fall, but the Mountain West’s most mercurial football team clawed their way to bowl eligibility and have been rewarded with a date against the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia State Panthers in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, in a matchup first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Stan Awtrey.

WE GOT EM’ @GeorgiaStateFB and @USUFootball are going to battle it out on the blue December 23! pic.twitter.com/7WsuCVsknM

— FamousID Potato Bowl (@IDPotatoBowl) December 3, 2023

Blake Anderson’s Aggies stumbled out of the gate with a 1-3 record but developed a penchant for the dramatic, rallying from early deficits against UConn and Colorado State to spur a turnaround that wasn’t exactly flawless but was defined by taking care of business against beatable opponents. Utah State didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in the regular season, but the Aggies finished 6-6, anyway, reaching the postseason for the third straight year.

By contrast, the Panthers had a hot start to the season and began 6-1, scoring wins over Coastal Carolina and Marshall, but a rigorous conference schedule took its toll and the team lost their last five games. Despite the slide, head coach Sean Elliott is set to lead Georgia State into its four bowl in the last five years.

This year’s Potato Bowl is set for Saturday, December 23. It will be broadcast on ESPN, kicking off at 1:30 PM Mountain/12:30 PM Mountain).

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