Going into the 2024 NFL draft, many pundits believed the Denver Broncos could trade down from the 12th overall pick and still land Oregon quarterback Bo Nix later in the first round (or perhaps even in the second round).
When draft night arrived, however, the Broncos stood pat and picked Nix at No. 12, a selection that many national pundits viewed as a reach. So why didn’t Denver trade down if Nix was the target?
Speaking after the first round on Thursday night, Broncos coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton both addressed that topic.
“We considered moving back, but once [Michael] Penix went, it got a little stressful there at the end,” Paton explained. “We had the Raiders behind us, so we just didn’t want to overthink it. This was our guy, and we were going to take our guy. We did think about it, but not too far.
“We could have moved a couple picks back and maybe have gotten some picks, but at the end of the day, this was our guy. Let’s just take him. Let’s not overthink this. We would have been sick if we lost him just for a couple of fifth-round picks.”
Five quarterbacks had already been picked when Denver went on the clock, including Penix. Las Vegas, another QB-needy team, picked right behind the Broncos, so moving down would have been a risky decision.
“Oftentimes, you hear this, ‘Well, if they don’t get one here, they can go back and get this one,'” Payton said. “I heard those same comments — when the Chiefs selected Patrick [Mahomes] and you go back and tune into everything, it was said, ‘Well, they could have got him later.’ No, they couldn’t have.”
Payton knows firsthand that the Chiefs could not have waited for Mahomes because the New Orleans Saints planned to pick the QB at No. 11 in 2017. Then Kansas City moved up to pick Mahomes at No. 10. Had the Chiefs listened to the notion that “you can get him later,” Mahomes would have been a Saint.
The Broncos did not want to risk a similar scenario with Nix. If the team moved back, there was no guarantee he would still be on the board when Denver went back on the clock.
“Let’s not worry about — and we all understand managing the draft, but let’s worry about what it’s going to look like three years from now,” Payton said. “Three to four years from now, this class will be judged. Make sure we get the right guy there [at No. 12].”
KOA Radio reported that Denver had Nix ranked as the third-best quarterback on their board behind Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Nix was “their guy,” and it would have been too big of a risk to trade down while hoping he fell to a later pick. The Broncos set out to get their QB and they made it happen at No. 12.
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