Tag: Milwaukee Brewers betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (31-18) and Milwaukee Brewers (24-24) play the third game of a four-game series Wednesday at American Family Field with a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 2-3 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 36 1/3 IP through 8 starts.

Paddack posted his first quality start of the season last time out Friday against the Seattle Mariners, allowing just one run, three hits and two walks with six strikeouts across six innings.

He hasn’t lost since April 27, mainly due to amazing offense. The Padres have scored 40 total runs across his past three outings.

LHP Eric Lauer is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 over 16 IP through 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.

Lauer, who spent his first two years in the majors with the Padres from 2018-19, makes his first start since May 4.

He allowed six runs – two earned – and eight hits with three homers and seven strikeouts across six innings in a loss at the Philadelphia Phillies.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Brewers +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+120) | Brewers +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (Over -105 | Under -115)

Prediction

Padres 6, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

The PADRES (-140) bounced back with a win Tuesday after dropping Monday’s opener. Overall, the Padres have won 10 of the past 11 games, and they have posted victories in three straight starts by Paddack, and five of his past eight assignments overall. The pitching matchup is in San Diego’s favor.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PADRES -1.5 (+120) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. In each of their past five victories they have also covered the run line, and 13 of their past 16 outings. As such, San Diego is a strong play laying the run and a half.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-105) is the lean here, as the total has gone Over in each of the past five for the Padres, including the first two in this series.

The Over is also 9-2 in the past 11 overall for San Diego. The Over is also 5-1 across the past six for Milwaukee, too.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (30-18) and Milwaukee Brewers (24-23) play the second of a four-game set Tuesday at American Family Field with a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 4-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 51 IP through 9 starts.

Musgrove allowed just two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts across seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory against the Colorado Rockies. He also faced the Brewers back on April 19 in San Diego, allowing just two solo home runs, four hits and a walk with a season-best 13 strikeouts in seven innings in a 3-1 loss.

RHP Corbin Burnes is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 2-3 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 15.0 K/9 and 0.5 BB/9 over 40 1/3 IP through 7 starts.

Burnes has nearly been untouchable this season, but offensive support has been a problem. The Brewers are just 2-5 in his seven starts this season, averaging only 1.33 runs per game across the past three outings, and 18 runs total this season.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+165) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 7 (Over -110 | Under -110)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Padres 1

Money line (ML)

The BREWERS (-115) are looking for another win in this series after a well-pitched 5-3 victory in the series opener Monday. Burnes hasn’t yielded much this season, so they’re the play, but beware of a lack of offense for Milwaukee.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Brewers +1.5 (-200) would cost you two times your potential return, and there is just no sense taking that risk. Just play them straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 7 (-110) is 4-2-1 in seven starts for Milwaukee with Burnes on the bump, including his start April 20 in San Diego. The Over-Under has alternated in each of the past six outings by Musgrove.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (30-17) and Milwaukee Brewers (23-23) play the first of a four-game set Monday at American Family Field with a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Blake Snell is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 1-0 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13.4 K/9 and 5.6 BB/9 over 40 1/3 IP through 9 starts.

Snell allowed just one run, five hits and one walk with a season-high 11 strikeouts last time out against the Colorado Rockies Tuesday. It was his first quality start in nine appearances this season.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 2-2 with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 57 IP through 9 starts.

Woodruff hasn’t won in the past four starts, but he has recorded quality starts in each of the past eight outings. He appeared against the Padres April 19 in San Diego, allowing one run, one hit and three walks with seven strikeouts across six innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+165) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 7 (Over -115 | Under -105)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

The BREWERS (-115) are a good play at home despite the fact they have won just six times across the past 19 games overall. The good news is that they’re 6-1 across the past seven games against the NL West, and they have beaten the Padres (-105) four straight times.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BREWERS +1.5 (-200) will cost you two times your potential return, and that’s normally too rich for my blood. However, they’re not a bad play if you want a little insurance in what should be a pitcher’s duel.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 7 (-105) has connected in seven straight meetings between these teams while hitting in each of the past four battles in Wisconsin. But the trends aren’t the reason to play the Under. It’s because Snell finally looked like the pitcher San Diego thought they were getting, and Woodruff has been untouchable for most of the season.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (22-23) and Cincinnati Reds (20-24) close out a three-game NL Central series Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP over 8 starts.

Peralta is thus far enjoying the finest season of his career. He is managing hard contact at a much-improved clip (26% hard contact in 2021). He has pitched 13 shutout frames over his last two starts.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

Castillo has scuffled through the first month-and-a-half of the season. The veteran righty isn’t missing as many bats as he has in the past, but he has held hard contact in check. He has mostly been undone by rates around the margins (.391 batting average on balls in play, 54.3% of runners left on base, 18.9% rate of fly balls as home runs). Castillo owns a 3.36 career ERA in his home ballpark, and he’s facing a Milwaukee nine that struggles against right-handers.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) |  Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 5, Brewers 4

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati batters own an .833 OPS against Peralta, and there is enough play in the Castillo side and the Reds’ advantage in home/road and left/right splits to make for value on a REDS +105 play.

Cincinnati’s .830 home OPS ranks second in the league; only four teams have a better OPS against right-handed starters than the Reds’ .769 figure.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line. The game has enough lean on the Over to make a loftier score uninviting on the Reds RL play. Take the better value on the ML.

Over/Under (O/U)

Two weekend-spent bullpens and a warmed-up, breeze-out-to-center Great American Ballpark make for a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) roll into Great American Ball Park Thursday for the first of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (19-23) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost both games of its interleague series at the Kansas City Royals and five of the past six games. The Brewers have lost three straight series.

Cincinnati got waxed Wednesday by the San Francisco Giants 19-4 and was swept in the four-game series. The Reds are just 3-7 in their past 10 games.

RHP Adrian Houser is on the hill for the Brewers. Houser is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over eight starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K last Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. the Reds: 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and three relief appearances.
    • Vs. Reds on the current roster: 67 at-bats with a .343/.362/.701 slash line, 14/2 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Jeff Hoffman is the projected starter for the Reds. Hoffman is 2-3 with a 4.67 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across eight starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 6-5 win at the Colorado Rockies Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over two starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .308/.357/.385 slash line, 4/1 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Cincinnati rakes Houser, and its bullpen is one of the worst in the league. So I don’t trust them to lockdown any game.

Both starters grade poorly in several advanced pitching metrics but Cincinnati’s lineup has drilled righties and has success vs. Houser.

For instance, hitters on Cincinnati’s roster have an absurd .432 wOBA, 8.52 FIP and .523 expected slugging percentage on 53 plate appearances vs. Houser.

Also, the Reds are sixth in wRC+, second in wOBA, third in OPS and 10th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching whereas Milwaukee has the second-lowest wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

However, since Cincinnati’s bullpen is in the bottom-third of the Majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% I’m going to STICK WITH REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because of the aforementioned concerns with Cincinnati’s bullpen, and I’m generally going to stay away from run lines for teams with poor bullpens.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because both starters are in the 38th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected wOBA.

Furthermore, Cincinnati’s bullpen troubles are carrying over from last year, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has regressed to somewhat of a weakness. The Brewers relievers are below average in xFIP, SIERA and hard-hit rate.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (21-21) tangle with the Kansas City Royals (19-22) Wednesday to wrap up their two-game miniseries at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Brewers’ woes against left-handed pitching continued Tuesday, as they were shut out 2-0 by the Royals with starter LHP Kris Bubic pitching 6 frames of 1-hit ball with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks.

Season series: Royals lead 1-0.

RHP Corbin Burnes is on the hill for the Brewers. He is 2-3 with a 1.57 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.64 WHIP, 0.3 BB/9 and 15.2 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Career vs. Royals: 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA (6 IP, 0 ER), 0 BB and 9 K in one start.
    • vs. Royals on the current roster: 16 at-bats with a .188/.235/.188 slash line.

RHP Brad Keller is the projected starter for the Royals. He is 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.86 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 8 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K at the Chicago White Sox Friday.
  • Career vs. Brewers: 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 44 at-bats with a .273/.340/.500 slash line and 3 HR.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Royals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-105) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Royals 1

Money line (ML)

The Brewers (-185) are pretty much unplayable at this price given how poor their hitting has been this season and so is their -200 First 5 Innings money line despite Burnes’ dominance so far.

Aside from New York Mets RHP Jacob deGrom, Burnes has the best stuff in the National League and the difference between him and Keller is evident in the odds.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit because of their overwhelming edge in the starting pitching matchup and because Milwaukee beat Kansas City by 2 or more runs in each of their three 2020 meetings.

Also, Milwaukee’s lineup has been one of the worst in the majors vs. right-handed pitching but that’s due in part to the injured list stints of OF Christian Yelich, who made his return Tuesday.

Yelich’s return should markedly improve the Brewers’ production at the plate and he has crushed righties throughout his career.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because Burnes should lock down this mediocre Kansas City lineup and Milwaukee’s hitting has been far too unreliable to this point.

In this case, we are relying on the Brewers’ hitting to continue to struggle, but if this is their slump buster game then Burnes still has the stuff to shut out the Royals and help our Under bet cash.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (19-16) host the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals (21-14) Tuesday to begin a three-game set at 7:40 p.m. ET in American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies this past weekend following a four-game split with the New York Mets. The Cardinals haven’t lost a series since dropping two of three vs. the Washington Nationals April 19-21.

Milwaukee beat the Miami Marlins in back-to-back games to win a three-game set this past weekend. The wins snapped a six-game losing skid, which included a four-game sweep at the Philadelphia Phillies

Season series: Brewers lead 2-1.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is on the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP of a 7-inning game with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Mets Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .172/.250/.241 slash line, 7/3 K/BB rate, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA (32 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 14.9 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 4 IP with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Phillies.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 3 starts and 4 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274/.357/.581 slash line, 17/6 K/BB rate, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

There are a couple of reasons why I’m BETTING BREWERS (-125) for 1 unit. First, Milwaukee’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching compared to righties while St. Louis struggles vs. right-handed pitching.

The Brewers are 27th in both wRC+ and OPS and 25th in wOBA against all pitching. However, vs. lefties, Milwaukee is fifth in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

Conversely, the Cardinals hitters against right-handed pitching rank in the bottom-10 lineups of wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.

Second, Peralta is much more effective at home and has filthy stuff. For his career, Peralta has a 3.12 home-ERA (5.87 ERA on the road), 1.06 home-WHIP (1.46 WHIP on the road) and is 12-3 at home (7-6 in road games).

Statcast grades Peralta in the 97th percentile of K%, 92nd percentile of whiff%, 95th percentile of expected wOBA and 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Since the start of the 2020 season, Milwaukee has the worst run line record in division games (20-35 RL) and an 11-22 RL record as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (+100) for a half unit because, while I have more faith in Milwaukee’s lineup in this spot than St. Louis’ and Peralta has elite advanced pitching grades, Kim also has fantastic numbers vs. the Brewers.

I’d assume that whenever Kim turns this game over to the bullpen, St. Louis will be using right-handed relievers, which Milwaukee could have a tough time hitting.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-16) clash with the Miami Marlins (15-16) for the second game of their three-game set at loadDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami beat the Brewers 6-1 yesterday with Marlins 2B Isan Diaz going 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs being the standout.

Season series: Marlins 3-1.

RHP Adrian Houser is getting the nod for the Brewers. Houser is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
  • Career vs. the Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 14.5 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starter for the Marlins. Castano is 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 across 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Brewers on April 28. This was Castano’s only career start vs. Milwaukee.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Brewers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

I’m on the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because they are playing better than their record indicates the Brewers (-115) are struggling, and Miami has a decent pitching edge over Milwaukee.

The Brewers have lost six straight after taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend.

Including yesterday’s win, the Marlins have won four in a row, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks before this series. Miami also took two of three at Milwaukee from April 26-28.

Milwaukee is fifth in luck factor and has two more wins than it should whereas Miami has the second-worst luck factor and has three fewer wins than it should.

In fact, the Marlins have a plus-24 run differential on the season and are the only NL East team to have a plus-run differential.

Also, Houser’s favorite pitch in his arsenal is the sinker and quite a few Marlins batters hit the sinker well including their cleanup hitter LF Cory Dickerson.

According to Statcast, Dickerson has a .571 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 66.7% hard-hit rate vs. the sinker. In fact, half of Miami’s lineup has a plus-run value against the sinker.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Houser below the 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and hard-hit rate.

Finally, Miami’s bullpen has performed much better than Milwaukee’s to this point. The Marlins relievers have a better SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and WHIP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS -1.5 (+195) alternate run line for a quarter unit if at all because of the nearly 2-to-1 payout and Miami’s plus-run differential.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) because Castano pitches much better in Miami than on the road, and the Under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last six games as a home underdog.

Lastly, Miami’s lineup is bad and Milwaukee’s is even worse. The Brewers’ hitters have a lower wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-14) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (16-15) match up Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 35 IP over six starts. Woodruff is striking out more than 30% of opposing batters for the 2nd straight season. In his last five starts, he has reached at least six innings and six strikeouts every time, while allowing no more than two earned runs.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-2 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 38 2/3 IP over six starts. Wheeler is throwing more sliders this season, which has helped lead to a career-high 26.6% K%. In three starts at home, he has a 3.66 ERA along with a 22/4 K/BB in 19 2/3 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Brewers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

The Brewers have come out on top in five of the six games started by Woodruff, who has been pitching about as well as anyone in the league. Wheeler has looked strong as well but has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his six starts. Go with the BREWERS (-120), who should put an end to their four-game skid.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Milwaukee is 9-6 on the road this season, and just one of the wins has been by a single run. Neither team is likely to have a huge day offensively, but it typically doesn’t take a lot to win by a couple runs when Woodruff is on the mound. Locking in the BREWERS -1.5 (+145) looks like a solid value play.

Over/Under (O/U)

This total is low, but both starting pitchers are very capable of hurling a gem. Even with the game being played in a hitters’ park, each of them have good matchups.

These offenses have struggled to get going during the first five weeks of the season. Both rank bottom eight in the league in runs per game as well as wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. A small play on UNDER 7 (-120) is the call here.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-13) and Philadelphia Phillies (15-15) play the third contest of their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. Peralta is is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 through 28 IP spanning 5 starts and 1 relief appearance.

The Milwaukee right-hander has been getting by with a .229 batting average on balls in play, but he has also done well to limit hard contact.

RHP Chase Anderson is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 through 21 2/3 IP over 5 starts.

Anderson relies on a change-up and is tough on lefty batters (.688 career OPS allowed); the Brewers bat more from that side than most teams.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+115) |  Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies took the first two games of this series, both in one-run fashion. Both offenses are bottom-10 units through the first month of the season but peg the Brewers as having the better starter Wednesday.

BACK THE BREWERS (-145) on a slight-to-moderate lean.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

STEER CLEAR of trying Milwaukee at the run line prop price. The game has a significant Under lean, and Philadelphia’s bullpen is underrated.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The Philly ‘pen figures as homer-unlucky to date, and analytic ERA measures are about a run kinder than the 5.13 surface ERA being sported by the home team’s relief corps.

Both offenses are swung around to their lesser platoon splits against a right-handed starter, and a double-digit mph breeze in from left-center is in the forecast.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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