Tag: Mike Clay

Chargers’ Corey Linsley among ESPN’s biggest offseason upgrades

Signing the All-Pro center was the Los Angeles Chargers’ best move of the offseason.

Among the plethora of offseason acquisitions made by the Chargers, arguably the best one was signing All-Pro center Corey Linsley.

ESPN’s Mike Clay recently graded the 25 biggest veteran position upgrades during the 2021 offseason and Linsley landed at No. 4 on the list.

Offensive line has been a problem for the Chargers for quite a while, but the franchise made big improvements during the offseason by signing one of the league’s best centers in Linsley and drafting tackle Rashawn Slater in the first round. Linsley is the focus here, of course, as he’s a known commodity.

The former Packers star ranked sixth in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate among centers last season. He also graded out as the best center in the NFL at PFF. Feeney, meanwhile, had the worst PFF grade among non-rookie centers, and the 2017 third-round pick is now with the Jets.

After having some of the worst production at the position last season from Dan Feeney, Los Angeles now has the cream of the crop with Linsley.

Named first-team All-Pro and rated Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 center from 2020, Linsley didn’t allow a sack or a tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage vs. the run. He allowed just four total pressures last season on 437 pass-blocking snaps — the lowest pressure total in the NFL.

L.A. now has a dependable and consistent presence to anchor their offensive line. Linsley made quarterback Aaron Rodgers very happy during his time Green Bay, and he’ll now do the same for QB Justin Herbert.

ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Chargers’ 2021 defensive stats

ESPN’s Mike Clay revealed his defensive projections for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Mike Clay is an NFL and fantasy football analyst at ESPN and spends a lot of time going through algorithms and formulas to project player and team stats prior to the regular season.

Recently, Clay revealed his defensive projections for the upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at how he believes the Chargers players will fare in 2021 under head coach Brandon Staley’s defense.

Defensive line

Players Snaps Tackles Sacks
Justin Jones 724 48 3.1
Linval Joseph 713 60 3.1
Jerry Tillery 702 35 4.5
Christian Covington 346 23 1.3
Cortez Broughton 130 9 0.6

Edge defenders

Player Snaps Tackles Sacks
Joey Bosa 897 66 10.7
Uchenna Nwosu 454 34 4.2
Kyler Fackrell 378 23 2.7
Chris Rumph II 248 15 1.6
Emeke Egbule 54 3 0.5

Linebackers

Player Snaps Tackles Sacks Interceptions
Kenneth Murray 1,026 123 0.8 0.7
Kyzir White 486 66 0.4 0.5
Drue Tranquill 173 25 0.2 0.1
Nick Niemann 151 20 0.2 0.1

Cornerbacks

Player Snaps Tackles Sacks Interceptions
Chris Harris Jr. 994 66 1.2 1.0
Michael Davis 951 66 0.2 2.5
Asante Samuel Jr. 702 53 0.3 1.5
Tevaughn Campbell 270 19 0.2 0.5
Brandon Facyson 65 6 0.0 0.1
Ryan Smith 43 3 0.0 0.1

Safeties

Player Snaps Tackles Sacks Interceptions
Derwin James 972 104 1.5 2.7
Nasir Adderley 972 81 0.2 1.0
Alohi Gilman 270 24 0.3 0.5
Mark Webb 162 14 0.1 0.3

ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Chargers’ 2021 offensive stats

ESPN’s Mike Clay takes a crack at projecting the production of the offensive side of the ball for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Mike Clay is an NFL and fantasy football analyst at ESPN and spends a lot of time going through algorithms and formulas to project player and team stats prior to the regular season.

Clay revealed his offensive projections for the upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at how he believes the Chargers skill players will fare in 2021 under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.

Quarterback

Player C/A Yards TDs INT Carries Yards TDs
Justin Herbert 394/602 4,434 28 12 56 248 5
Chase Daniel 21/31 222 1 1 1 4 0

Running back

Player Carries Yards Average TDs Receptions Yards TDs
Austin Ekeler 200 911 4.5 5 75 613 3
Justin Jackson 86 385 4.4 2 19 139 1
Joshua Kelley 65 269 4.1 2 15 104 1

Wide receiver

Player Targets Receptions Yards Average TDs Carries Yards
Keenan Allen 154 105 1,097 10.4 7 2 13
Mike Williams 89 56 869 15.5 6 0 0
Josh Palmer 49 31 409 13.2 3 0 0
Jalen Guyton 37 21 316 15.0 2 2 11
Tyron Johnson 18 11 166 15.0 1 4 22

Tight end

Player Targets Receptions Yards Average TDs
Jared Cook 61 40 496 12.4 4
Donald Parham 43 29 320 11.0 3
Stephen Anderson 6 4 46 11.5 0
Tre’ McKitty 3 2 20 10 0

Fantasy Football: Initial projection for Chargers WR Josh Palmer in 2021

ESPN’s Mike Clay gives an early outlook for Chargers wide receiver Josh Palmer.

The Chargers brought in another weapon for quarterback Justin Herbert with the selection of former Tennessee wide receiver Josh Palmer in the third-round of the 2021 NFL draft.

Palmer will be joining a crowded wideout group that features Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but he still presents excellent value in his rookie season, enough that he’s worth taking in your fantasy football leagues.

ESPN’s Mike Clay reacted to the first three rounds from a fantasy football perspective, where he made some initial projections and analysis for all skill players that were taken.

For Palmer, Clay’s initial projection sees him receive 37 targets for 23 receptions, 274 yards, two touchdowns in 2021.

He’s not a threat to Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in the short term, but could overtake Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson for No. 3 duties very quickly. That would make him a fantasy sleeper considering how good Justin Herbert looked as a rookie. Palmer will be a fine later flier in deeper leagues.

When you look at Palmer’s stat sheet from college, it’s easy to be swayed away from him as a potential target, as he failed to surpass 34 targets and 500 yards.

The reality is that the numbers don’t do the justice to reflect the type of player he is and can be at the next level.

Palmer never produced eye-popping production at Tennessee due to the fact that he played alongside two current NFL wide receivers for two seasons and the team’s ongoing quarterback problems.

Palmer, the 6-foot-1 and 210 pounder, ran mostly vertical routes in the Vol’s offense and rarely got targeted because of it. On top of that, 31% of his targets were uncatchable.

However, when he was targeted with a catchable ball, he shined against some elite college corners, including Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain II, Tyson Campbell, Eric Stokes and Kelvin Joseph.

Palmer was 14-of-14 in catching the “catchable balls” in those matchups, 11 of which went for first downs, four touchdowns, and 16 yards per reception, according to Pro Football Focus.

At the Senior Bowl, defensive backs had no answer for Palmer, defeating them with violent route-running and the speed to create separation. His 81% win rate was the highest of any outside receiver.

Now on a team with a competent quarterback in Herbert, Palmer should definitely be more productive in the NFL than he was in college.

In Year 1, he will be in the mix for snaps with Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. But given the fact that offensive coordinator Joe Lombard goes through a lot of different personnel packages, Palmer will have his opportunities.

With his ability to separate at all levels of the field, especially vertically, Palmer could quickly become one of Herbert’s go-to targets this upcoming season and beyond.

The bottom line is take Palmer in the later rounds of your upcoming drafts and you could have yourself a diamond in the rough.

Pair of Chargers tabbed as fantasy football busts

Will Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Hunter Henry see a dip in production in 2020?

‘Tis the season to start preparing for fantasy football leagues as the 2020 regular season is right around the corner.

The Chargers have a few skill players that have helped fantasy owners in recent years. But is this the year where you should stay away from some of them? A few ESPN analysts believe so.

Four analysts, two for each, believe that wide receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Hunter Henry will fail to live up to their expectations in the upcoming season.

ESPN’s Mike Clay projected Allen to finish 2020 with 83 receptions for 978 yards and five touchdowns, which would be a regression in production from 2019.

Meanwhile, Henry is projected to finish with 54 receptions, 650 yards and four touchdowns. Those stats would slightly come up short from him surpassing last season’s numbers.

Studs in years prior, it’s easy to believe that Allen and Henry will see a dip in production. If Los Angeles adopts a run-heavy scheme, its unlikely that any of their pass-catchers will achieve numbers like they did when the pass was more emphasized.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the quarterback position, as Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert take over. Both Taylor and Herbert have questions as passers, which will have owners pause.

The bottom line is that both Allen and Henry will be fine options, but they might not offer the league-winning upside like they did in recent seasons.

Mike Clay is expecting big leap from Bucs’ ‘young, high-pedigree defense’

ESPN’s Mike Clay likes the potential he sees in the Buccaneers’ defense heading into 2020.

It’s been an offseason of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but one that will hopefully yield a return to the postseason for the first time in over a decade.

Tom Brady was the biggest offseason acquisition for the Bucs, along with that of his former Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski. The dynamic duo will be joining an offense that ranked third in the league last season, so it seems the rich just got richer, at least offensively.

But if the Bucs are going to make a serious run in 2020, they’ll need their defense to be just as formidable as their offense. While Tampa Bay ranked 15th overall in defense last year, and first in rushing, they were 30th in pass defense. Still, this young secondary has some talent, and Mike Clay over at ESPN thinks the Bucs defense will be a pleasant surprise this season.

Per Clay:

“Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski were the big-name additions, but I’m also anticipating a big leap from a young, high-pedigree defense. Vita Vea, Devin White, Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, M.J. Stewart, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards were all drafted on Day 1 or 2 of the past three drafts and positioned for sizable 2020 roles. This defense could make a huge leap, especially after its strong finish to last season.”

The defense could definitely take a big jump this season, that is if defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is allowed to get any work done from home.

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ESPN Insider predicts Bills’ Zack Moss to become ‘one of NFL’s best’

ESPN’s Mike Clay on Buffalo Bills running back Zack Moss.

Zack Moss was the ninth running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, coming off the board at pick No. 86 to the Buffalo Bills.

Despite that, one ESPN Insider sees Moss landing in a perfect spot for him to blossom. Well, not only that, but to turn into one of the NFL’s top running backs in the entire league.

A group of national analysts for the world-wide leader pegged some rookie predictions. Among them was Mike Clay who massively pumped the tires on Moss to the Bills:

Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Zack Moss will emerge as one of the league’s best rushers. Moss fell to the Buffalo Bills in the third round after running a 4.65-second 40-yard dash, but that can’t overshadow his absurd rushing efficiency at Utah; he ranked second in this year’s rookie class in both yards after contact and forced missed tackle rate last season. Moss is big (223 pounds), tough, quick and has receiving chops. He is this year’s Jordan Howard/Chris Carson.

Many observers of the Bills pegged Jordan Howard as a potential offseason addition for Buffalo. If that’s what Moss turns into, that’ll be exactly what Buffalo’s offense needs.

In 2019, Frank Gore was a solid rusher early in the season, but appeared to lose that step later on. In Moss and Devin Singletary, the Bills will have a formidable one-two punch moving forward, or at least it appears that way on paper right now. Singletary showed his stuff already, now fingers crossed that Moss can slide right into the pro game from college.

And make no mistake, Singletary will still have a role with the Bills even if Moss does emerge as a great back. But of all Buffalo’s rookies, even second-round pick AJ Epenesa, Moss has the most clear-cut, instant impact opportunity for the 2020 season. Enjoy both of your running backs, Buffalo.

 

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Cowboys LBs lead team’s unit grades in rosy 2020 projections

ESPN analyst Mike Clay assigns grades to each unit of all 32 NFL teams, giving Cowboys fans cause for optimism for the 2020 season.

Mike Clay’s name may be a familiar one to fantasy football owners. But the ESPN analyst has to crunch a ton of numbers regarding the real-life rosters, too, in order to arrive at his weekly player projections and individual rankings during the season.

In these slow days when fans are starving for every morsel they can find about their team, Clay’s first set of 2020 grades for the 32 NFL clubs, released March 31, should be cause for optimism in Cowboys Nation. According to Clay’s early calculations, Dallas ranks as the third-strongest offense in the league and in the top ten in defense. Those scores place the Cowboys second overall, behind only the Saints as the top team in football, per Clay’s grades.

There’s lots there to scour and some hardcore mathematics at work, but here are the highlights for Cowboys fans:

At 3.9 out of 4, the linebacker corps is Dallas’s highest-rated unit. Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, and Sean Lee anchor the group that ranks second at the position across the league, behind only Seattle.

Tight end is the offense’s weak spot, scoring just 0.5. Clearly, Clay isn’t impressed with presumed starter Blake Jarwin’s promise in surpassing Jason Witten’s 2019 output.

At 2.8, there is room for improvement at wide receiver, though that is likely a reflection of the current hole at the slot position after Randall Cobb’s departure.

The Cowboys’ quarterback, running back, and offensive line groups all come with grades in the mid-3s. That contributes mightily to the offense’s No. 3 ranking, putting them behind just the Saints and Chiefs, the teams Clay sees as facing one another in Super Bowl LV.

Defensively, cornerback is the team’s weak link, but again, that low number is largely indicative of a key personnel loss; in this case, Byron Jones.

Clay has also sifted the 32 teams by division to forecast final 2020 standings, playoff seedings, and a final 2021 draft order. More glimmers of hope for a strong overall showing by the Cowboys.

Clay projects Dallas to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record and end up with the third seed in the NFC postseason bracket. That would have the Cowboys facing the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. By using Clay’s predicted draft order, one can extrapolate that he expects the Cowboys to then travel to San Francisco in the divisional round and ultimately fall to the 49ers. Clay sees the Cowboys ending up with the 27th pick in next year’s draft.

It’s just one man’s interpretation of the data, and there are still moves to be made, collegiate players to be selected, and- most important- actual games to be played on the field. But this rosy report makes some tasty food for thought for Cowboys fans, and a welcome bit of encouraging news at a time when there’s precious little of that going around in general.

Fantasy writer Mike Clay picks the Bucs as his most improved team

ESPN fantasy football writer Mike Clay tells you why he thinks the Bucs are the most improved team since free agency began.

NFL free agency started just last week, but already we’ve seen enough moves and been given enough storylines to entertain us between now and the start of the 2020 season. Fans can finally start picturing what the future looks like for their team.

And, we all know the most important team for many people is their fantasy football one, and this free agency period has already given people plenty to think about as they prepare for their own upcoming drafts.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were of course the story of the first week after landing six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady to add to an offense that ranked third in scoring last season despite Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions. Brady throwing passes to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard will likely make him a prime fantasy target for people. And, according to fantasy writer Mike Clay of ESPN, the Bucs are the most improved team since the start of free agency, a ringing an endorsement from a fantasy guru.

Per Clay:

“There are teams that added multiple impact players, but no team got nearly as much of a boost from one player as Tampa Bay did by signing quarterback Tom Brady. Brady vaults the Buccaneers from a borderline playoff contender to a strong bet to push for 10 wins and potentially an NFC South crown. The Bucs also did well to re-sign edge rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul.”

You can’t overlook the Barrett and JPP signings. The Bucs defense had a bounce-back year in 2019 under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, and with rookie linebacker Devin White coming on strong in the second half of the year, Tampa Bay is expecting big things from their D in 2020.

Oh, and they are pretty excited about their new-look offense, too.

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One NFL writer is picking the Bucs to upset the Texans in Week 16

Find out why Mike Clay of ESPN is picking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Houston Texans in Week 16.

Over the past month, the Bucs have looked more and more like the team we thought we were going to see at the beginning the season. They’ve gone 5-1 in their last six games following that grueling 1-4 road trip, and are definitely the team you don’t want to face in December, especially if you are looking to get into the playoffs.

That’s the case for the Houston Texans, who come to Raymond James Stadium in Week 16 looking to secure a spot in the postseason. Most sportsbooks have the desperate Texans ending the Bucs’ four-game winning-streak.

But, NFL writer Mike Clay thinks the underdog Bucs will keep their streak alive with a Week 16 upset over Houston.

Here’s Clay’s reasoning:

“The Texans pulled off an impressive win in Tennessee on Sunday, but the Buccaneers have somewhat quietly won four consecutive games, as well as five of their past six. Tampa Bay has built an offensive juggernaut, scoring at least 28 points in four consecutive games and in six of its past seven outings. This has the makings of a potential shootout, and the Buccaneers have the ammunition to come out on top at home.”

The downside for Tampa Bay is that they will be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both of whom will miss the remainder of the year with hamstring injuries. That means Jameis Winston will be throwing to a whole new cast of characters come Saturday.

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