Mike Clay’s name may be a familiar one to fantasy football owners. But the ESPN analyst has to crunch a ton of numbers regarding the real-life rosters, too, in order to arrive at his weekly player projections and individual rankings during the season.
In these slow days when fans are starving for every morsel they can find about their team, Clay’s first set of 2020 grades for the 32 NFL clubs, released March 31, should be cause for optimism in Cowboys Nation. According to Clay’s early calculations, Dallas ranks as the third-strongest offense in the league and in the top ten in defense. Those scores place the Cowboys second overall, behind only the Saints as the top team in football, per Clay’s grades.
Here we go: First official run of 2020 NFL Unit Grades.
Each of the 10 units ranked on 0.0-4.0 scale. Overall scores are weighted by positional importance (primarily $$ guarantees). #ClayProjections pic.twitter.com/fVxmpd71Co
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 31, 2020
There’s lots there to scour and some hardcore mathematics at work, but here are the highlights for Cowboys fans:
At 3.9 out of 4, the linebacker corps is Dallas’s highest-rated unit. Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, and Sean Lee anchor the group that ranks second at the position across the league, behind only Seattle.
Tight end is the offense’s weak spot, scoring just 0.5. Clearly, Clay isn’t impressed with presumed starter Blake Jarwin’s promise in surpassing Jason Witten’s 2019 output.
At 2.8, there is room for improvement at wide receiver, though that is likely a reflection of the current hole at the slot position after Randall Cobb’s departure.
The Cowboys’ quarterback, running back, and offensive line groups all come with grades in the mid-3s. That contributes mightily to the offense’s No. 3 ranking, putting them behind just the Saints and Chiefs, the teams Clay sees as facing one another in Super Bowl LV.
Defensively, cornerback is the team’s weak link, but again, that low number is largely indicative of a key personnel loss; in this case, Byron Jones.
Clay has also sifted the 32 teams by division to forecast final 2020 standings, playoff seedings, and a final 2021 draft order. More glimmers of hope for a strong overall showing by the Cowboys.
My @WinCraftInc magnet board is expired, but that won't slow me down —
Early run of 2020 NFL Standings and playoff projections, as well as projected 2021 Draft order #ClayProjections pic.twitter.com/Y2M3hjr4RE
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) April 1, 2020
Clay projects Dallas to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record and end up with the third seed in the NFC postseason bracket. That would have the Cowboys facing the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. By using Clay’s predicted draft order, one can extrapolate that he expects the Cowboys to then travel to San Francisco in the divisional round and ultimately fall to the 49ers. Clay sees the Cowboys ending up with the 27th pick in next year’s draft.
It’s just one man’s interpretation of the data, and there are still moves to be made, collegiate players to be selected, and- most important- actual games to be played on the field. But this rosy report makes some tasty food for thought for Cowboys fans, and a welcome bit of encouraging news at a time when there’s precious little of that going around in general.