Tag: Miami Marlins betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (19-23) and Philadelphia Phillies (22-21) split the first two games of a three-game set. They will finish off the series Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 51 IP over nine starts.

Alcantara had allowed 2 ER or less in four straight until his last outing when the Los Angeles Dodgers got to him for 8 ER in just 1 1/3 IP.

In three career starts at Citizens Bank Park, he has put up a 1.33 ERA and 18/7 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP.

RHP Vincent Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He has made eight appearances (five starts), and is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP.

Velasquez has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three starts (all on solo HR), with a 19/8 K/BB in 17 IP in that span.

Dating back to 2019, in his last five starts against Miami, Velasquez has put up an ugly 11.94 ERA with five homers allowed in 17 1/3 innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have fared well at home this season, with a 14-7 record. But the Marlins have a slightly better run differential (+2 vs -4) and the clear pitching edge in this contest.

Velasquez has been extremely lucky, benefiting from both a .231 BAbip and 92.9% left-on-base percentage. His BB/9 is 5th highest in the league among starters, and it’s only a matter of time before his ERA shoots up. That may start tonight, so take the MARLINS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Velasquez has lowered his ERA by almost two runs from last year’s mark, but his skills aren’t any better. He’s walking more batters and allowing a lot of hard contact, leading to seven home runs against him in 25 1/3 IP in his last five starts.

Alcantara had a rough outing last time out, but his skills to this point are better than ever. There is value in MARLINS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

Miami should put some runs on the board in this one, but this is not an offense that has a lot of explosive games. This game is likely to end up right around the total, and the smart move is to PASS.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-20) host the Miami Marlins (18-22) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first regular-season matchup between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami won last year’s season series 7-3 en route to an NL Wild Card berth.

Miami is yet to announce an official starter but BetMGM has RHP Cody Poteet as the Marlins’ projected starter.

Poteet made his MLB debut in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He picked up a win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.

RHP Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Philly’s 5-2 win at the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Marlins: 8-3 with a 1.87 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 72 at-bats with a .194/.259/.333 slash line, 32/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-165) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Philly’s First 5 Innings price is 10 cents on the dollar cheapbaseballsavant.mlb.com/…/zack-wheeler-554430er than its full-game price and Wheeler has pitched like an ace since joining Philly last season.

Wheeler has a 3.54 FIP, an opponent’s .253 wOBA and .339 expected slugging percentage vs. current Marlins hitters. On the season, Wheeler grades in the 80th percentile of expected wOBA, 79th percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of expected slugging percentage.

He logged a quality start in four of his past six outings and has beaten the Marlins in four of his last five starts against them with the only loss an 8-inning, 10-strikeout performance in 2019 (with the New York Mets).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+120) for a quarter unit because Philly’s bullpen has been mediocre, which is an improvement on its dreadful 2020 campaign but Wheeler eats up innings.

Also, since the Phillies had an off-day Monday, their bullpen should be rested and their better relievers available for work Tuesday.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because despite Philly’s mashers, the lineup is below-average in several advanced hitting categories. Philadelphia is also 3-5 O/U in Wheeler starts and the Under cashed in each of Miami’s last five games against a right-handed starter.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (20-17) host the Miami Marlins (17-20) for the first of a three-game set in Dodger Stadium at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Marlins with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami won back-to-back games at the Arizona Diamondbacks to tie their four-game series 2-2 following a four-game losing skid to the D-Backs and Milwaukee Brewers. The Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

L.A. won both games at the Seattle Mariners Tuesday and Wednesday, but the Dodgers are just 7-13 over their last 20. Before the two-game sweep of Seattle, L.A. lost five consecutive series.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starter for the Marlins. Alcantara is 1-2 with a 2.72 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 7 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 2-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Dodgers: No-decision in 5 IP with 6 ER (2 HR), 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Miami’s 10-6 loss at L.A. in his only start against the Dodgers (2019).
    • Vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 17 at-bats with a .353/.450/.647 slash line, 4/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBI.

LHP Clayton Kershaw is on the rubber for the Dodgers. Kershaw is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 8 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-11, in 5 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Marlins: 6-5 with a 2.34 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 over 13 starts.
    • Vs. Marlins on the current roster: 98 at-bats with a .143/.184/.184 slash line, 42/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Dodgers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -120 | U:  +100)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-225) prices me out of taking L.A. outright considering Alcantara has top-notch stuff and Miami’s bullpen has pitched significantly better than L.A.’s so far.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the DODGERS -0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS because of L.A.’s said bullpen issues, Alcantara is a lot less effective vs. winning teams, and Kershaw’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Marlins lineup are impressive.

For his career, Alcantara allows two-plus more runs per game vs. teams with a winning record, has a 1.41 WHIP (1.05 WHIP vs. teams with a losing record) and is 6-16 against winning teams.

Also, Kershaw has a 1.35 FIP with a .229 expected wOBA vs. the Marlins lineup whereas Alcantara has a 6.43 FIP and .451 expected wOBA against L.A.’s hitters.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 6.5 (-120) for a tiny wager because I think L.A.’s lineup does damage to Alcantara early, and both teams put in their lesser effective relievers if this game is in hand early. That means the backdoor is open for the Over despite the starters’ stuff.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (15-18) and Arizona Diamondbacks (15-19) play the opener of a four-game set Monday at Chase Field with a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Marlins are expected to treat Monday’s contest as a bullpen game. They will face the Diamondbacks for the first time since 2019. The last time they were in Arizona, the Fish lost two of three games.

As of this publishing, the Marlins haven’t announced their “opening” pitcher. Two possibilities are RHP Luis Madero or RHP Jordan Holloway. Madero, who would be making his MLB debut, is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 3 1/3 IP in 1 start with Triple-A Jacksonville this season. Holloway has made 5 relief appearances with the big-league club in 2021, posting a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 10 IP.

RHP Luke Weaver is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 29 2/3 IP through 6 starts.

Weaver faced the Marlins in Miami last time out, and he was bounced for six earned runs, six hits and two walks with six strikeouts across just four innings in a loss. He hasn’t worked more than five innings since April 11.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Marlins at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Off the board
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -115 | Under -105)

Prediction

Marlins 8, Diamondbacks 7

Money line (ML)

The MARLINS (+105) will have a bullpen game in the opener of this four-game set. The Marlins just handled the Diamondbacks and Weaver last week, so play the underdogs in Game 1 of this series.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with the RL off the board.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8.5 (-115) is the best play on the board here. In fact, the Marlins posted an 8-0 win over Weaver and the Snakes in Miami Wednesday, taking care of the Over on their own. Don’t be surprised if they can do that yet again, although the Diamondbacks will score plenty in this bullpen game for the Fish.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (17-16) clash with the Miami Marlins (15-16) for the second game of their three-game set at loadDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami beat the Brewers 6-1 yesterday with Marlins 2B Isan Diaz going 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs being the standout.

Season series: Marlins 3-1.

RHP Adrian Houser is getting the nod for the Brewers. Houser is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
  • Career vs. the Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 14.5 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starter for the Marlins. Castano is 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 across 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Brewers on April 28. This was Castano’s only career start vs. Milwaukee.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Brewers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

I’m on the MARLINS (-105) for 1 unit because they are playing better than their record indicates the Brewers (-115) are struggling, and Miami has a decent pitching edge over Milwaukee.

The Brewers have lost six straight after taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend.

Including yesterday’s win, the Marlins have won four in a row, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks before this series. Miami also took two of three at Milwaukee from April 26-28.

Milwaukee is fifth in luck factor and has two more wins than it should whereas Miami has the second-worst luck factor and has three fewer wins than it should.

In fact, the Marlins have a plus-24 run differential on the season and are the only NL East team to have a plus-run differential.

Also, Houser’s favorite pitch in his arsenal is the sinker and quite a few Marlins batters hit the sinker well including their cleanup hitter LF Cory Dickerson.

According to Statcast, Dickerson has a .571 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 66.7% hard-hit rate vs. the sinker. In fact, half of Miami’s lineup has a plus-run value against the sinker.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Houser below the 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and hard-hit rate.

Finally, Miami’s bullpen has performed much better than Milwaukee’s to this point. The Marlins relievers have a better SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and WHIP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS -1.5 (+195) alternate run line for a quarter unit if at all because of the nearly 2-to-1 payout and Miami’s plus-run differential.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) because Castano pitches much better in Miami than on the road, and the Under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last six games as a home underdog.

Lastly, Miami’s lineup is bad and Milwaukee’s is even worse. The Brewers’ hitters have a lower wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (15-15) and Miami Marlins (13-16) play the finale of a three-game set Thursday at loanDepot park with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Madison Bumgarner is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 3-2 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 30 2/3 IP through 6 starts.

Bumgarner started off super shaky in allowing 5 or more runs in each of his first 3 outings, but he has allowed 2 earned runs over 17 innings across his past 3 contests. That includes a 7-inning no-hitter against the Atlanta Braves April 25.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-2 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 34 2/3 IP through 6 starts.

Lopez is coming off his best start of the season. He allowed just 6 hits with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts across 7 scoreless innings in a no-decision Friday against the Washington Nationals. He allowed just 1 earned run across his past 19 innings over 3 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Diamondbacks at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) | Marlins -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +100 | Under -120)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 3, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

The DIAMONDBACKS (+110) are looking to salvage a victory after being thoroughly outplayed through the first two games of this series.

The Marlins outscored the Snakes 17-3 in the first two outings and cashed as favorites. I like MadBum to serve as the stopper and give Arizona something positive before flying out.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) are a little too expensive for my liking, as I’d prefer to just play them straight up for the plus-money upset.

AVOID.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 7.5 (-120) looks like a risky play since the first two games saw a total of 20 runs scored.

Bumgarner and Lopez have each been humming along and tossing up plenty of donuts, so the runs will be at a premium on getaway day.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (9-12) and Milwaukee Brewers (13-8) meet at American Family Field to open a three-game series Monday at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Trevor Rogers is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 22 IP over 4 starts. Rogers is coming off a superb outing against the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K).

RHP Corbin Burnes is the projected starter for the Brewers. He is 2-1 with a 0.37 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 14.8 K/9, and 0.0 BB/9 in 24 1/3 IP over 4 starts. Burnes has been ultra-consistent, pitching 6 or 6/13 IP each start, striking out between 9-11, and walking none. He has benefited from a .171 batting average on balls in play and a 100% left-on-base rate, but the Milwaukee right-hander has exhibited a significant uptick in velocity and has produced a tremendous 19.6% swinging-strike rate through four turns.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Brewers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee closed out a six-game road trip with a 6-0 win at Wrigley Field Sunday. The Brewers won five of those six games and head into this week in first place in the NL Central. Miami dropped its series finale at the San Francisco Giants Sunday and is just 2-5 over its last 7 games.

The Fish don’t settle into an easy travel slot here, but Rogers gives them more than just a puncher’s chance. Miami has the better bullpen and it’s one with the best arms better rested.

BACK THE MARLINS (+150).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Miami is a fair play at the current run-line tag. Consider the MARLINS +1.5 (-145) as a decent value, especially with such a low run total.

Over/Under (O/U)

Lean into some gravity on this play and BACK THE OVER 6 (-120). Neither offense is off to a great start and if the retractable roof is open for this one, the pitching stands to benefit from an inward breeze. But the starters’ surface numbers appear to be weighed too heavily here.

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Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (8-9) and San Francisco Giants (11-7) open a four-game weekend set at Oracle Park with a 9:45 p.m. ET first pitch Thursday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Daniel Castano is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He allowed 1 run in a 5-inning season debut against the Giants April 16. In 7 games as s rookie last season, the lefty logged a 1-2 record, 3.03 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 29 2/3 IP.

RHP Aaron Sanchez is the projected starter for the Giants. He is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 14 2/3 IP over 3 starts. Sanchez was a February free-agent signing; he’s returning from shoulder surgery and missed all of 2020. Albeit in small doses, the Marlins own an aggregate .875 OPS against the 7-year Major League veteran.

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Marlins at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Giants -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Giants -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Giants 4

Money line (ML)

The Marlins and Giants meet for a second straight weekend. Miami took 2 of 3 from San Francisco last week in South Florida. The Marlins are 8-9 despite playing a tough slate and are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

The Giants are back at home after an east coast road trip (Miami, Philadelphia). They are 9-4 with a nifty 2.85 team ERA over their last 13 games.

Both teams take to the field after cross-country travel and no off day. The Marlins do so with a better-rested bullpen, and there is a bit play-Miami/fade San Francisco in the early numbers.

BACK THE MARLINS (+125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The tag on Miami is too steep here: PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Peg the ERAs for both starters and both bullpens as being artificially deflated by generous rates around the margins. The Giants have a below-average .711 OPS against lefty pitching, but it’s a number held in check by a .203 batting average on balls in play in the split.

Figure on a near-50% chance of this contest reaching a double-digit total, so there is VALUE ON THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (2-6) begin a four-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (4-5) Monday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sandy Alcantara (0-1) takes the mound for the Marlins in the series opener. Alcantara has looked sharp with two quality starts to begin the season.

He pitched 6 scoreless innings Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing just 2 hits and striking out 7, but he took a no-decision in Miami’s 1-0 loss. He took the loss Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals after giving up 2 earned runs and 3 total on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 in 6 innings pitched.

Last season, Alcantara was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (42 IP, 14 ER, 35 H, 39 K, 15 BB) in 7 starts

RHP Huascar Ynoa (0-0) makes his second start of the season for the Braves. He gave Atlanta 5 scoreless innings at the Washington Nationals Wednesday, giving up only 2 hits with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts, but got a no-decision in Atlanta’s 2-0 win.

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Marlins at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS (+115) for a half-unit.

Miami is considered to be the “sharp” side since, at the time of publishing, close to 90% of the money bet is on the Marlins but nearly half of the bets placed are on the Braves.

Although I’m a bit leary about taking a public road dog against the reigning division champions, the Braves just lost a controversial and intense game against the Philadelphia Phillies last night and have to host a sneaky good and rested Marlins team.

Miami’s game Sunday with the New York Mets was rained out and its relievers are much fresher. Atlanta used four relievers Sunday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because it’s out of my price range, but I wouldn’t rule out parlaying this with another similarly priced team for a plus-money payout.

Since the beginning of last season, the Marlins +1.5 (-165) have the second-best run line record in the majors as road underdogs at 26-8.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit as the best bet in Marlins-Braves.

Alcantara is a pitcher I’m buying stock in and his numbers against the Braves are solid. He is 0-0 with a 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 K and 9 BB across 3 starts in his career against Atlanta.

The 25-year-old righty has seven straight quality starts and 10 out of 11 including games against the Rays, New York Yankees and Phillies.

Also, Alcantara’s last two outings against Atlanta (in 2019) were quality starts but he earned a no-decision in both.

I expect Alcantara to be sharp on the rubber tonight, Miami is 2-5-1 O/U and the lineup has put up 8 runs over the past five games.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (1-0) continue their season-opening series against the  Miami Marlins (0-1) Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Ryan Yarbrough is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. In 2020, Yarbrough went 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 55 2/3 IP and 11 appearances. The Rays lefty is an elite soft-contact inducer (hard contact allowed in 2020 was 25%). In 39 career road games (in a difficult road division), Yarbrough has held opposing bats to a .635 OPS.

RHP Pablo Lopez gets the nod for the Marlins. A year ago he went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 57 1/3 IP over 11 starts. In games not on Sept. 9, Lopez logged a 2.54 ERA (he was tagged for seven runs in 1 2/3 frames that day against the Atlanta Braves). The now-25-year-old logged two starts against the Rays in 2020, one good (2 runs) and one bad (5 runs).

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Rays at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) |  Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 4, Rays 3

Money line (ML)

The Rays topped the Marlins 1-0 in Thursday’s lid-lifter. Tampa Bay leaned a bit more into its best bullpen options to seal the win.

Miami was a much stronger club against lefty pitching in 2020, carding a .775 OPS (.673 vs. right-handed pitching). Lopez is a strong breakout candidate for 2021, and these prices should be flipped.

Take the MARLINS (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

A contrarian run-line play fading a top-notch club is an angle with some merit. It may be worth holding out for a better price here, but MIAMI +1.5 (-175) makes for a decent play.

Consider the run line as undercard action with the above ML wager on top.

Over/Under (O/U)

A contrarian Over 7.5 (-110) lean after a 1-0 opener is squelched by the pitching matchup and the pitcher-friendly yard.

PASS.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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