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Drafting these players could get you in deep trouble this season.
Overrated players achieve that dubious distinction because one fantasy football owner is willing to take a risk on a talented player with question marks or baggage of some kind. When a player is questionably tabbed to be a weekly fantasy starter, someone will make a case that they aren’t overrated and only figure it out after it’s too late.
These are five players who will be drafted to play significant roles on fantasy rosters but may struggle to live up to their draft slotting.
Is it exclusively “The Joe Mixon Show” in Houston?
The Houston Texans have been a revolving door at running back in recent years with a different leading rusher each of the last six seasons. If the coaches get what they expect out of veteran free-agent signee Joe Mixon, said streak will continue for a seventh straight year.
With the moves made in this offseason, Houston is looking to fast-track a rise in the AFC and is putting a lot of money into players like Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs to give quarterback C.J. Stroud as many weapons as possible.
Former starter Dameon Pierce is looking to reclaim his career after a meteoric rise in 2022 and just as sharp a decline in 2023.
7/21 update: RB Cam Akers was signed after this analysis went live. He’s coming off another torn Achilles tendon — this time his right one — which was suffered in Week 9 last season. Akers has participated in on-field training camp work, and he’s expected to compete for a roster spot. In best-case scenario, he unseats Pierce as the No. 2 back. We’ll closely monitor this situation during training camp.
Course correction: Houston acquires Joe Mixon via trade.
The Houston Texans pulled off a trade less than a day after reports stating Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon would be released. Instead, he’ll now line up in a backfield with second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Plot twist: The #Bengals are now trading Joe Mixon to the #Texans, rather than releasing him, sources say.
So Zack Moss signs in Cincy, Mixon is traded to Houston. From Joe Burrow to CJ Stroud. pic.twitter.com/TG0G3JMGMp
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 12, 2024
As mentioned in the response to Zack Moss agreeing to join the Bengals, Mixon has struggled with efficiency the last few years, but his rate of scoring touchdowns has dramatically improved. Nearly 28 years old, with considerable mileage on his odometer, Mixon is clearly entering the twilight of his career. Houston, which feels it is poised to win not only now but well into the future, chose a stable veteran after a one-year stint with Devin Singletary, who left for the New York Giants in free agency.
From a real-life perspective, Mixon’s veteran presence, penchant for scoring touchdowns in the red zone, pass-protection skills, and versatility will do wonders to help balance out the offense. He’s no spring chicken and lacks the burst for long-range chunk plays, which the Texans can offset during the draft or a still-deep pool of remaining free agents.
The fake football view puts Mixon in the range of being a high-end No. 3 and a midrange No. 2, provided he can stay healthy. The Texans, for all of last year’s impressive play, are still a young, developing offense, particularly at wide receiver. Look for ample checkdown plays to pad his receiving stats and a respectable ratio of rushing TDs to attempts, but the lack of yardage output most weeks will position Mixon to be dependent on finding the end zone to make a difference in a fantasy lineup.
Five picks gamers are spending too much capital on in fantasy drafts.
Determining which players will over- and underperform their fantasy football draft station is annually one of the most important elements in putting together a winning roster. As the season inches closer it’s a good time to see where players are being drafted, and how their ADP (Average Draft Position) corresponds to what they might do in 2023.
With that in mind, here are five players that appear likely to underdeliver relative to their current draft slot.
Will Joe Mixon be suspended? Can Chase Brown emerge? How should gamers approach this backfield?
While the Cincinnati Bengals featured a top-10 offense in 2022 (both in terms of yardage and points), Quarterback Joe Burrow and the passing game did the heavy lifting — to that point, Cincy finished fifth in aerial offense and just 29th on the ground. Despite that, the team did little to address this deficiency. In fact, the biggest move of the offseason was allowing running back Samaje Perine to sign with the Denver Broncos after he finished with 681 combined yards and six touchdowns.
There was also uncertainty about running back Joe Mixon based on some legal issues, though that looks to have been settled, at least in terms of his position on the roster. The only addition of note is rookie back Chase Brown, who will battle RBs Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans for the No. 2 job. It’s possible the Bengals will target a veteran between now and Week 1 — given their Super Bowl aspirations, perhaps someone like running back Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) would be willing to sign on — but based on where it stands right now, here’s a look at the Bengals’ 2023 running backs.
A pragmatic approach to drafting the embattled Mixon in fantasy football.
It has been an eventful offseason off the field for Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon, who had an arrest warrant issued for aggravated menacing on Feb. 2, only to have the charges dropped and then later reinstated. The process is still ongoing, but it immediately introduces some uncertainty into the veteran’s outlook for 2023, as the NFL could elect to weigh in with disciplinary action at any point, regardless of how the legal process plays out. Or, conversely, they could decide to wait until after the season and/or impose no penalties at all.
While the possibility of a suspension hangs over Mixon, it’s by no means the only issue fantasy owners should consider heading into this season. Age and mileage are also becoming concerns. Mixon turns 27 in July, and he is entering his seventh year in the league. His durability to this point has been admirable, appearing in at least 14 games five times, and posting 270 or more touches in four of those campaigns, but it may be catching up with him.
To that end, Mixon is coming off his least effective full season since his rookie year, collecting 814 yards and seven touchdowns on 210 carries (3.9 YPC). If you omit 2020, when injuries limited him to six games, that’s well below his per-season averages of 269 carries, 1,170 yards (4.4 YPC), and 8.7 TDs from his previous three campaigns.
On the positive side, Cincinnati dramatically upgraded the offensive line this spring with the signing of Orlando Brown at left tackle, which moved Jonah Williams to the right tackle spot.
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Mixon became a more frequent option for QB Joe Burrow, who targeted the veteran back 75 times last year, which was fourth-most on the team, resulting in a career-high 60 receptions, 441 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Those opportunities in space are a good way to get the ball in Mixon’s hands while mitigating the pounding backs take on straight runs. Any pathway to exceeding expectations in 2023 likely involves continued high involvement in the passing game, and that’s dubious if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t again miss multiple games.
Another factor potentially working in Mixon’s favor is a lack of options, at least proven ones. With last year’s RB2 Samaje Perine joining the Denver Broncos, the depth chart features Day 3 draft picks like Chris Evans (2021), Trayveon Williams (2019), and rookie Chase Brown. Clearly, the Bengals hope one of them will emerge to assume the role Perine filled so ably last year, but no one on that list looks like an immediate challenger for Mixon’s spot as starter.
Head coach Zac Taylor swears Mixon’s future is in Cincinnati, and they’ve made no clear moves to suggest that isn’t the case. Until and unless that changes, whether by player acquisition or league discipline, Mixon appears aligned to serve as the primary back in Cincinnati once again, which gives him viable midrange or low-end RB2 value. Brown is the ADP consensus handcuff and is, at least at this point, a must-draft insurance policy.
The good, the bad, and the ugly from the FSGA Champions draft.
The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, but the most prestigious one of all was held recently. It featured 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in the “Champions League” via an online draft hosted by RTSports.com.
We normally congregate in person, but the pandemic-induced online format is on its third year and very well could be here to stay. SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thoroughly covered the event once again, and subscribers can catch up on any missed commentary in the station’s online archives.
I’ve had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for approximately a decade now, making the postseason six of the past seven years, including one appearance in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to go take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.
Thus, there is a need to take aggressive actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.
Last year, the team finished in fifth place and made the playoffs, but a loss by fewer than five points sent me packing early. Not great, but not terrible, either.
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Despite drafting standouts Tom Brady and Cooper Kupp, late-season star Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and Nick Chubb, the team couldn’t withstand a few poor assessments on my part as well as injuries ¹. My Round 4 pick of Kupp, in particular, was met with ridicule, and I caught flak for snagging Swift in Round 2. Spilled milk to some, I suppose, but it’s merely an anecdote to share about not getting caught up in the opinions of other people.
The league is a performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting even into mid-July — mind you, this used to take place a month prior — forces gamers to take an educated guess on appropriate value of unsettled situations.
My team drafted out of the 10th spot, which wasn’t as bad as choosing out of the ninth hole a year ago. The team should be competitive, and with a few breaks, it could once again surpass the expectations of its critics. That said, it will need waiver help (no trades allowed) to truly contend.
A team-by-team fantasy football outlook from the AFC North.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
Fantasy football risers and fallers as we enter the penultimate playoff push.
Injuries are always a part of any NFL season, but when you look at the running backs who were ranked highest heading into auctions and drafts prior to the start of the season, it just goes to show why RBs maintain their fantasy value – they’re an endangered species.
The list is impressive and growing with those who will be out in coming weeks. It’s staggering.
Derrick Henry has missed four games and counting. Christian McCaffrey has missed five games and left Sunday’s game, only to be placed on season-ending IR. Dalvin Cook has missed two games and left Sunday’s game. He’s out at least two more. Alvin Kamara has missed three games. Saquon Barkley has missed four games. Nick Chubb has missed three games. Josh Jacobs has missed two games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has missed five games. Aaron Jones has missed one game and parts of three. Chris Carson has missed six games. J.K. Dobbins has missed the entire season. Miles Sanders has missed three games. David Montgomery has missed four games. James Robinson has missed one game and parts of two others. Raheem Mostert has missed 10 games. Darrell Henderson has missed one game. Kareem Hunt has missed five games.
Considering fantasy owners get heartburn when their star players are on their bye weeks, missing time at this rate for a critical position has likely broken a lot of teams – both fantasy owners and NFL franchises.
Here is the Week 13 Fantasy Market Report:
While his numbers don’t jump off the page as a receiver, when you split them out between home and road production, the contrast is stark. He has scored five touchdowns – all at home. He has five games with 60 or more receiving yards – all at home. While he has just one game with more than five receptions, he has showed that he can be a valuable fantasy contributor when playing at Gillette Stadium, and his numbers all year have borne that out.
Many fantasy owners will forget that two weeks into the 2021 season, Gronk stood alone as the leading scorer in the NFL with four touchdown catches. That was good Gronk. Then came bad Gronk. Late in the Week 3 game against the Los Angeles Rams, he went down with an injury and didn’t have a reception in the next six games. In his two games since returning, he has reestablished himself as Tom Brady’s go-to target. He has been targeted 18 times, catching 13 passes for 194 yards and putting himself back into the discussion of the top fantasy tight ends in the game – just in time for a postseason run in defense of Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl championship.
For those who didn’t have Mattison as a handcuff for Dalvin Cook, these could be heady days. Cook has a history of injury because of his punishing running style. In the last three games Cook has missed due to injury, Mattison has rushed 72 times for 320 yards, has caught 16 passes for 149 yards and scored three touchdowns. With Cook sidelined with a shoulder injury and free-falling Detroit and Pittsburgh next up on Minnesota’s schedule, Mattison could be one of the most valued running backs in the fantasy game.
At a time when game-changing tight ends are in short supply, fantasy owners scramble in hopes of tight ends that are used considerably in the red zone. Everyone is looking for the 2021 version of what Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan accomplished last year. That is becoming Freiermuth this season. While he only has one game with more than 45 receiving yards, in his last five games, he has caught five touchdown passes and has four or more receptions in each game. While not earth-shattering numbers, at a time when the tight end pool is relatively dry, these are numbers sent from heaven.
Typically, we don’t put weekly fantasy starters on the risers list, but for most of his career, Mixon was a premium pick in fantasy drafts that was most likely to be benched for a better matchup due to long stretches without consistent production. In his first four seasons, he missed time due to injury in three of them and scored just 20 rushing touchdowns in 40 games. This season, he has scored 13 touchdowns (11 rushing, two receiving) and has scored two TDs in each of his last four games. With the Bengals staring down a trip to the playoffs, over his last two games against wild-card contenders (the Raiders and Steelers), he has rushed 58 times for 288 yards and four touchdowns. He’s lining up with Jonathan Taylor for fantasy MVP consideration.
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The Broncos have been snake-bitten when it has come to pairing up Jeudy and Sutton. Last year, it was Sutton, who played just one game before going down for the season. This year it was Jeudy, who was injured in Week 1 and missed the next seven games. The two have been playing together for the last month, and, in those four games, Jeudy has caught 18 passes for 181 yards and no touchdowns. In that same span, Sutton has caught seven passes for 95 yards and no TDs. Both players have a high ceiling to their talent, but neither is worth putting in a lineup as things currently stand, much less when the stakes are higher in December.
Similar to McCaffrey, Barkley has been battling injuries the last two seasons and the results have been numbingly bad. Prior going down in Week 5, Barkley never had more than 57 rush yards in a 2021 game. While he managed to score three TDs in that span, he wasn’t putting together the type of huge numbers that were expected. He’s back and has taken over the lead back role, but he has just 19 carries for 65 yards, 10 receptions for just 44 yards and no touchdowns in those two games. At this point, it’s difficult for those who made a big investment in him to bench him out of fear he will be the Barkley of past vintage. In the end, most owners who invested in Barkley will have to sink or swim with him and, at the moment, they’re drowning.
I’ve never been a huge Hilton guy but had to respect the numbers he put up with Andrew Luck at the wheel. However, this season has been a disaster. He missed the first five games and has been inactive in two more. At least under those circumstances, he doesn’t hurt fantasy players. In the last four games he has played, he has caught just nine passes for 75 yards and one touchdowns. At a time where Michael Pittman has established himself as the No. 1 guy and four others have more receptions than Hilton in the games in which he has played, it seems about time to stick a fork in Hilton as fantasy commodity and move on.
It was curious on two fronts when Drake hit free agency last year – one that the Arizona Cardinals made no effort to re-sign him and second that the Raiders did. In 23 games with the Cards, Drake was close to dominant from the fantasy perspective, rushing for almost 1,600 yards and scoring 18 rushing touchdowns. His role with the Raiders has never been defined. He has played in every game and has more than eight carries just once and averaging less than six. He has more than 34 rush yards in just one game and when Josh Jacobs was down with an injury, Peyton Barber was the primary back. He has talent, but it isn’t being utilized in Las Vegas.
