fantasy football experts league review

Recapping 2022 FSGA fantasy football experts draft

The good, the bad, and the ugly from the FSGA Champions draft.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, but the most prestigious one of all was held recently. It featured 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in the “Champions League” via an online draft hosted by RTSports.com.

We normally congregate in person, but the pandemic-induced online format is on its third year and very well could be here to stay. SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thoroughly covered the event once again, and subscribers can catch up on any missed commentary in the station’s online archives.

I’ve had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for approximately a decade now, making the postseason six of the past seven years, including one appearance in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to go take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take aggressive actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

Last year, the team finished in fifth place and made the playoffs, but a loss by fewer than five points sent me packing early. Not great, but not terrible, either.

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Despite drafting standouts Tom Brady and Cooper Kupp, late-season star Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and Nick Chubb, the team couldn’t withstand a few poor assessments on my part as well as injuries ¹. My Round 4 pick of Kupp, in particular, was met with ridicule, and I caught flak for snagging Swift in Round 2. Spilled milk to some, I suppose, but it’s merely an anecdote to share about not getting caught up in the opinions of other people.

The league is a performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting even into mid-July — mind you, this used to take place a month prior — forces gamers to take an educated guess on appropriate value of unsettled situations.

My team drafted out of the 10th spot, which wasn’t as bad as choosing out of the ninth hole a year ago. The team should be competitive, and with a few breaks, it could once again surpass the expectations of its critics. That said, it will need waiver help (no trades allowed) to truly contend.

Full roster by round

Pick	Rnd	Pos	Player	Tm
10	1.10	RB	Joe Mixon	CIN
19	2.5	WR	Mike Evans	TB
38	3.10	WR	Courtland Sutton	DEN
47	4.5	RB	Damien Harris	NE
66	5.10	WR	Allen Robinson	LAR
75	6.5	RB	Devin Singletary	BUF
94	7.10	QB	Joe Burrow	CIN
103	8.5	TE	Austin Hooper	TEN
122	9.10	RB	Tyler Allgeier	ATL
131	10.5	WR	Kenny Golladay	NYG
150	11.10	WR	Jamison Crowder	BUF
159	12.5	RB	Hassan Haskins	TEN
178	13.10	WR	Jalen Tolbert	DAL
187	14.5	TE	David Njoku	CLE
206	15.10	Def/ST	Los Angeles Chargers	LAC
215	16.5	K	Rodrigo Blankenship	IND

Recapping 2021 FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, but the most prestigious one of all was held Monday, July 5. It featured 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in the “Champions League” via an online draft hosted by RTSports.com.

We normally congregate in person, but the pandemic-induced online format from last year was carried over into 2021. SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio thoroughly covered the event once again, and subscribers can catch up on any missed commentary in the station’s online archives.

I’ve had the pleasure of competing in the premier grouping for approximately a decade now, making the postseason five of the past six years, including one appearance in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to go take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom three teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Last year, I was roundly criticized for all but one of my first five picks (Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson respectively). Singletary was an dumb choice, for sure, but I also didn’t expect Stefon Diggs to completely dominate the target share. Henry and Metcalf worked out just fine, and Mostert flashed promise in between injuries. Johnson was a sound contributor based on his volume.

Long story short, the team finished 8-5 and in fourth place. Not great, not terrible, either. But without a title, it’s merely an anecdote to share about not getting caught up in the opinions of other people.

The league is a performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. There are several situations that have yet to unfold (Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Zach Ertz, etc.), forcing gamers to take an educated guess on appropriate value.

My team drafted out of the ninth spot, which, I must say, felt like being trapped in a barren wasteland at times. Nevertheless, the team should be competitive, and with a few breaks, it could once again surpass the expectations of its critics.

Rnd	Name	Pos	Team	Bye
7	Tom Brady	QB	TB	9
13	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	7
1	Nick Chubb	RB	CLE	13
2	D’Andre Swift	RB	DET	9
6	Trey Sermon	RB	SF	6
8	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	9
20	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13
3	Amari Cooper	WR	DAL	7
4	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	11
5	D.J. Chark	WR	JAC	7
9	Henry Ruggs III	WR	LV	8
12	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	9
11	Jared Cook	TE	LAC	7
14	Anthony Firkser	TE	TEN	13
16	Daniel Carlson	PK	LV	8
15	Miami Dolphins	DEF	MIA	14

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

Depending upon one’s perspective, I may not have learned my lesson with the Singletary failure. Taking D’Andre Swift over DeAndre Hopkins drew flak, and that’s quite all right. Yes, Hopkins was the safer and “smarter” pick in the eyes of most people. In fact, he was the only other player I seriously considered in this spot. The primary reasoning for going with Swift: 1) I wasn’t keen on what would be left for my RB2 in a PPR since Nick Chubb is barely involved in the receiving game, 2) Swift may catch a ton of passes in this WR-starved offense, and 3) Receiver is so deep that I wasn’t too concerned about building a capable corps. RB Jamaal Williams will be a factor, but I’m confident in this Anthony Lynn-led system finding more than enough utilizations to go around.
Amari Cooper … not really controversial, per se, but he isn’t exactly an ideal WR1 consideration. I strongly pondered Julio Jones here, and Mike Evans almost was the choice. Tampa has as many, if not more, weapons as Dallas, and for as good as CeeDee Lamb will be, I’m banking on Cooper remaining Dak Prescott’s favorite target for one more year.
The choice that drew the most criticism from my roster easily was that of San Fran rookie running back Trey Sermon in Round 6. First of all, in a 14-teamer, we’re basically a full round later at this point when compared to a draft with only 12 squads. More importantly, the 49ers will run a metric boatload of times in 2021, and Sermon is one Mostert injury away from being a workhorse. The offense will share the carries, but Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) is already slated to miss time, possibly into the regular season, and Mostert has yet to show he can hold up for more than a few spurts of meaningful touches. Sermon is built for this zone-blocking plan, running behind one of the best lines. As radio host John Hansen said on Sirius, this one is a swing for the fences after taking a mixed bag of risk with my first two RBs.
So many quarterbacks rarely go as early as they did in this draft. I gave much consideration to spending a fourth-round choice on Kyler Murray — my top-rated QB — until he went a few picks before my selection. Once that happened, I knew it would be a waiting game for the right moment. In Round 7, admittedly still earlier than I wanted, Tom Brady was the choice. Dallas Goedert went one slot ahead of me, which caused the pivot to TB12. Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow were my other two targets. I wagered on Brady’s age not catching up with him, mostly due to his immensely talented cast of receiving outlets as being the separating factor in a healthy season. Aside from Father Time getting his way, there is far less to go wrong with Brady than the other duo.
Henry Ruggs was a risk-reward decision. The pool of wideouts with potential to consistently enter my line was dwindling, and Ruggs is poised to shake off last year’s disastrous season. Should he struggle once again, we’re talking about a WR4 in Round 9.
Chuba Hubbard wasn’t exactly a rock star in college last year while following up his explosive 2019 showing, so there was some chatter about whether he was a worthy Round 10 selection. Even thought I had already invested in a rookie RB in the sixth, Hubbard didn’t scare me off, largely thanks to the opportunity he could see if injury once again derails Christian McCaffrey’s season.
Although uncontroversial, I want to address the selections of Detroit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tennessee tight end Anthony Firkser. After drafting Jared Cook as my TE1, grabbing a second tight end was a borderline necessity. Cook should rebound in LA by having already a strong grasp on the system, but he’s also getting up there in years. Firkser is one of my favorite sleeper targets, provided the Titans don’t trade for Ertz. As for St. Brown, the Lions currently have TE T.J. Hockenson and Swift as the only two players really in contention to challenge for the team lead in receptions. St. Brown could surprise, and he showed as a true freshman at USC that he was quite capable of learning on the fly.

Fantasy championships tend to be won in the middle and later rounds. They can be lost in the early portion of drafts, of course, but I hedged enough bets in this one to be comfortable with my chances to make it to the postseason for the third straight year.

Recapping FSGA fantasy football experts draft

Explaining the rationale behind some of my picks in the industry championship league.

Haters gonna hate.

Two things should be abundantly clear to every fantasy sports professional: You’re wrong almost as much you’re right in reality, and you’re wrong all of the time in the eyes of social media pundits. It’s fine. Having thick skin is a prerequisite for survival in this industry. A long-running rule of thumb is that being right 60 percent of the time is considered good. In other words, we’re in the same boat as meteorologists.

While being wrong roughly four out of 10 times isn’t ideal, it also illustrates the disparity in accuracy from the general public to people doing prognostication for a living. That’s not a brag but a fact of life in this business. That’s also not to say brilliant fantasy minds and competitors don’t exist outside of the sphere of people fortunate enough to do this for a living. But it’s super common to hear — especially when drafting in the middle of June — how wrong our picks are and what we should have done instead. Par for the course … Yet, every so often, someone’s critiques open our eyes to reevaluating a situation — or at least they should if we’re being open-minded.

That’s a long-winded way of saying, “Keep the hate coming!” I won’t pretend to speak for everyone, but it’s motivating, since millions of people would happily trade in their day jobs for mine, and I’m never going to let myself lose sight of it.

[lawrence-related id=451932]

Where does that miniature rant come from? The feedback to my Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) draft results.

Monday, June 22, witnessed 14 of the industry’s most prominent companies represented in an online draft. We normally congregate in person. I’ve been in this league for roughly a decade now, and one of the first things I learned was the need to take calculated risks at a level unprecedented in any other professional draft. In addition to this being a 14-teamer, comprised by some of the brightest minds in fantasy, the loser goes home. This year, the bottom three teams get the boot.

In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I expect to break out and then fail miserably instead of finishing in the middle of the pack with an uninspired effort.

In 2019, I hated my draft and was roundly panned for it. I had no business being in the playoffs if we were grading on an immediate post-draft reaction. That team finished as the second-highest scorer and landed in second place, earning a first-round bye week. While it was bounced in the second round after a flat showing, that lineup scored the most points of all teams during the bye and would have beaten all teams over the rest of the playoffs. Again, that’s also not a brag. It’s an illustration that the season is so much more than the aesthetics of a draft result in June. Or July. Or August and September.

It’s easy (and fun) to get caught up in the immediate reactionary takes about a roster. However, luck avoiding devastating injuries, astute inseason waiver manipulation (no trading in this league), and — arguably most important of all — optimal lineup decisions matter so much more. Sometimes we all draft a team that is so dang good we get to skate through the regular season, but anyone who has played this game long enough knows how rare that tends to be when playing against 13 other professionals.

May team out of the eighth spot:

Overall	Pick	Player	Team	Pos
8	1.8	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB
21	2.7	Devin Singletary	BUF	RB
36	3.8	Raheem Mostert	SFO	RB
49	4.7	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	WR
64	5.8	Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR
77	6.7	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB
92	7.8	Rob Gronkowski	TAM	TE
105	8.7	Jamison Crowder	NYJ	WR
120	9.8	Zack Moss	BUF	RB
133	10.7	Hunter Renfrow	LV	WR
148	11.8	Jace Sternberger	GNB	TE
161	12.7	Chris Thompson	JAC	RB
176	13.8	Drew Lock	DEN	QB
189	14.7	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR
204	15.8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TAM	Def/ST
217	16.7	Ka’imi Fairbairn	HOU	K

I’ll address the controversial picks rather than going line-item for 16 rounds worth of selections.

Devin Singletary drew a bunch of criticism for his lack of scoring prowess, Josh Allen’s role around the end zone, and the drafting of running back Zack Moss. I handcuffed Moss to Singletary to be safe, even though I really don’t like the idea of rookies in 2020 due to the abbreviated offseason. At least this is the one position where the transition may not be as daunting. If Allen is supposed to become a better quarterback in Year 3, coinciding with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Singletary stands to benefit. If the Bills are expected to be the favorite in the AFC East, the second-year back is going to be an integral part of it. I’ll take may chances reaching slightly that he’s closer to a strong RB2 in PPR than not. I wasn’t keen on a receiver, and none of the other RBs made more sense from an upside perspective.
Some criticism was levied for the D.K. Metcalf selection, and while I can see merit in the concerns, this, in part,, is the result of going three straight running backs to open the draft. I felt strongly enough in Raheem Mostert being a weekly lineup fixture as a flex, meaning wideouts could be thinner and less important. We saw elite-level flashes from Metcalf last year, and I’m confident he’s the real deal. I briefly considered Adam Thielen, but his lack of talent around him leaves me nervous, and his best play is behind him. Keenan Allen may look more respectable as a WR1 than Metcalf in a PPR, yet I have no confidence in the LA quarterback situation delivering weekly results. I then took a gamble that one of Robert Woods, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin or T.Y Hilton would be available in Round 5. I was wrong, which led me to the next (and most) controversial pick:
Diontae Johnson has soared up draft boards in recent weeks. While some gamers may not be comfortable with him as either a WR2 or as a fifth-round choice, I’m perfectly fine with both in a 14-teamer. I was determined to not miss out. Johnson will outscore JuJu Smith-Schuster and is going to be the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Not only that, he’ll emerge as a leading candidate for the top fantasy breakout player in 2020. Had I landed one of those aforementioned receivers, I then would have aimed for Johnson in Round 6. I reached for Chris Godwin last year and was rewarded. I don’t mind reaching for a guy I strongly feel will finish in the top 25 at his position.
The selection of Rob Gronkowski was questioned as being too early by many of the people providing feedback. I truly get the risk factor in drafting him, but there’s also considerable upside. I wrote for this very site that Gronk has bust factor written all over him, and much of it is due to injury history. Here’s to hoping the year away helped get his body right. It’s hard to ignore the chemistry with Tom Brady when looking around a talent-laden Tampa offense. We objectively have no idea if TB12 has any connection with Mike Evans and Godwin, regardless of how talented those guys are in their own right. The tight ends who immediately came off the board in the next round or so following my Gronk choice: Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee and Jared Cook. Those three guys are not less risky than the goofball I drafted. The final thought: I drafted Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger as Gronk’s backup, and the young tight end is another one of my favorite sleeper targets.
Chris Thompson is the only pick I’m not all that crazy about. He’s a boo-boo away from IR at all times, and the Jaguars have plenty of weapons around him to lessen the chance the former Washington Redskins pass-catching back is heavily involved. He is reunited with Jay Gruden, and there’s zero chance the coaching staff wants Leonard Fournette catching 76 passes again. The idea here is hopefully I don’t have to use Thompson, but if I do, I am comfortable with the situation.