Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Five picks gamers are spending too much capital on in fantasy drafts.
Determining which players will over- and underperform their fantasy football draft station is annually one of the most important elements in putting together a winning roster. As the season inches closer it’s a good time to see where players are being drafted, and how their ADP (Average Draft Position) corresponds to what they might do in 2023.
With that in mind, here are five players that appear likely to underdeliver relative to their current draft slot.
Does the Seahawks offense has room for JSN to produce for fantasy football in 2023.
Despite having a solid wide receiver tandem in the form of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seattle Seahawks decided to use the No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft on Ohio State product Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Arguably the top receiving prospect in this rookie class, Smith-Njigba will be competing for targets with a strong duo ahead of him on the depth chart. His arrival raises the question: Is there enough room in the Seahawks offense for the rookie to be fantasy relevant?
First, we must look at the depth chart. Metcalf is still right in his prime at 25 years old, while Lockett turns 31 years old in September. They’ve become one of the most consistent tandems in the league since 2019, recording at least 900 yards during that span — Lockett has surpassed 1,000 in each of those seasons.
What’s more, they have a stranglehold on the target share within the offense. In 2022, they posted a combined target share of 48.2% with Metcalf at 25.5% and Lockett at 22.7%. The next closest player was tight end Noah Fant (11.4%).
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So, while Metcalf and Lockett are dominating the targets, an argument can be made that a first-round talent like Smith-Njigba easily slides into third in the pecking order. Having Geno Smith at quarterback offers stability, but his lack of high-end weekly fantasy finishes may limit the rookie’s ceiling.
Next, we need to look at Smith-Njigba himself. He’s a crafty route runner with reliable hands and exceptional change-of-direction skills. He may not be a true burner, but he understands the nuances of route running and still provides enough juice after the catch.
It’s likely Smith-Njigba’s role will begin as a slot receiver, provided he fends off competition from Dee Eskridge. That’s where he played the majority of his snaps at Ohio State. However, it’s not outlandish to believe his polish as a route runner can lead to a role as a flanker type in the future. But with Metcalf and Lockett fully entrenched ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s difficult to imagine all three wideouts being on the field together all the time.
Draft capital is important to note here as well. Since 2011, there have been 42 wide receivers drafted in the first round who appeared in at least 10 games during their rookie seasons. Of those 42, there were 15 rookies who averaged at least 12.5 PPR points per game, which is right around the WR2 (top-24) mark for fantasy purposes. Only seven of those 42 have averaged more than 15.0 PPR points per game in Year 1.
Smith-Njigba is an electric talent who does possess some upside in Year 1. He’s NFL-ready as a slot receiver, but the tandem of Metcalf and Lockett will likely limit his playing time and production early on. However, if one of them suffers an injury, it opens the door for a much higher ceiling.
Considering his draft capital, talent and the Seahawks depth chart, Smith-Njigba should have a role right away. It may be slow to start the season, but the rookie can be viewed as a WR3 option in fantasy with some upside if an injury befalls Metcalf or Lockett.
One year of stellar production shows his ceiling, but JSN is far from being a safe draft choice.
An elite ceiling will have plenty of teams interested in drafting Ohio State wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 2021 campaign was nothing short of impressive.
Smith-Njigba posted a remarkable 2019 senior prep season, securing more than 2,000 yards worth of receptions and earning five-star recruit status. He was named Texas State Player of the Year in Class 6A ball, and he managed to score a TD as a true freshman while coming off Ohio State’s bench in seven games.
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 196 pounds
40 time: 4.48 seconds
The 2021 season saw JSN go bonkers, highlighted by a 15-catch, 347-yard, three-TD appearance in the Rose Bowl after wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave opted out of the contest in preparation for the 2022 NFL Draft. Smith-Njigba’s sophomore breakthrough led to being named a third-team Associated Press All-American and also making the Big Ten third-team roster.
With Olave and Wilson in the pros, Smith-Njigba couldn’t manage to stay on the field in 2022. He played in just three games after suffering a hamstring injury and wasn’t a factor when he did suit up. The one year of monster returns sandwiched between two years of 15 combined receptions leave some questions to be answered.
Table: Jaxon Smith-Njigba stats (2020-22)
*includes postseason/bowl games (stats from Sports Reference)
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Smith-Njigba comes with a few major question marks that aren’t necessarily true negatives but still need to be addressed. Even still, he possesses Round 1 positives, performed at a high level in his lone full season, and stands out in a slot role, which will make him coveted on Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. His stock is no worse than an early pick in the second round.
The likeliest landing spots are the Houston Texans at No. 12, Baltimore Ravens (No. 22), and Minnesota Vikings (No. 23). Other reasonable options include the Tennessee Titans (No. 11), Green Bay Packers (No. 15), and Los Angeles Chargers (No. 21).
JSN will be a weekly fantasy starter in time, which could come as early as Year 2. He offers a glimmer of hope for matchup utilization as a rookie, depending upon where he lands, but the overall outlook is much stronger as he approaches Year 3 or 4 than early on.
Possession slot receivers tend to be more meaningful to real-life NFL teams than our fake counterparts, unless the wideout is a true No. 1 (Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin types), and it isn’t a slam dunk that Smith-Njigba will live up to that billing in the pros.
