The Miami Heat are looking to get better at guard and on the wing, but will they make a move?
The NBA trade deadline comes up on Thursday at 3 p.m. Eastern, so we’ve decided to throw the spotlight on some specific teams who could be active to either help bolster their playoff chances or clean house in order to rebuild for the future.
The Miami Heat might be the NBA’s biggest surprise. Right now, they’re the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference standings but are only 1.5 games back of the 2 seed. They’re 22-3 at home and have one of the best offenses in the league despite employing a bunch of former G-Leaguers and cast offs.
Nobody but the Heat players themselves thought this was possible. With every week that passes they look more and more like a top-4 team in the playoffs. Thursday’s deadline gives them a chance to lock that in.
What the Heat should do
The Heat are in a very peculiar place given the fact that they don’t have many assets to deal around. They traded away their 2021 first round pick (unprotected) and a 2023 first round pick (lottery protected). Because they’ve dealt those picks they can’t move their 2020 or 2022 first round picks per the Stepien rules that prevent teams from dealing picks in consecutive years.
Their best move would be trading the assets on their roster — that means Tyler Herro and Justise Winslow will probably end up being their most tradeable pieces.
They won’t do it, but they should package those two together in a deal for Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans don’t seem keen on moving Holiday — they’re trying to make a push for the 8th seed in the West.
BUT if you throw Herro and Winslow in there with, say, Dion Waiters, then it might be worth it for New Orleans. They’d at least have to kick the tires on that one.
What the heat will do
It’s really hard to tell with this Heat team. Holding tight is definitely an option here — they’re already a really good team!
But, come on, y’all. We know what’s going to happen here. Somebody is going to get moved and they’re going to make a wild deal we didn’t see coming.
It’s Pat Riley, fam. That’s just what he does. He throws his rings on the table and gets people to say yes to him… except for LeBron James. And they’ll somehow do it without actually moving Herro, too, which will be the part that confuses us the most.
Contracts worth noting
Dion Waiters — $12.1 million in 2019-20, $12.6 million in 2020-21
Meyers Leonard — $11.2 million in 2019-20
Justise Winslow — $13 million in 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22
Goran Dragic — $19.2 million in 2019-20
Kelly Olynyk — $12.6 million in 2019-20, player option for $13.5 million in 2020-21
Each week, HoopsHype’s staff gives our Top 10 candidates for this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Which stars have stood out thus far?
Each week, HoopsHype’s staff gives the Top 10 candidates for this year’s Most Valuable Player award. This list highlights stars who are in the mix for the 2019-20 MVP award due to their impressive play.
Which stars have stood out? Here are our latest MVP rankings:
This season has been a rollercoaster for the Philadelphia 76ers, who have gone on several hot and cold streaks. The point forward has made 271 field goals in the restricted area this season, which ranks fourth-best in the league. His unique size has helped him pull down rebounds on 5.5 percent of his squad’s missed field goals, per Cleaning The Glass, which is the best rate among point guards. Simmons also has defensive rebounds on 31.7 percent of opponent’s missed free throws, also the best among point guards. On the defensive end, Simmons is averaging an NBA-best 2.1 steals per game. He also leads all players in both loose balls recovered (87) and deflections (190) this season.
Jimmy Butler has found a perfect home on the Miami Heat. The five-time All-Star is averaging 1.46 points per possession in transition, which ranks No. 1 in the league (minimum: 100 possessions) in 2019-20. He just put up a season-high 39 points per game against the Philadelphia 76ers. His career-best assist rate (28.6 percent) puts him in the 96th percentile among all NBA wings. Butler has been a fantastic hustler, too. He currently ranks sixth-best in steals (1.8 SPG), sixth-best in deflections per game (3.6) and sixth-best in loose balls recovered per game (1.6) thus far.
Once again, Kawhi Leonard is having a sensational season on both ends of the court. The biggest issue is that he has only played 38 games, though the Clippers have won 30 of those. He is averaging 2.1 steals per game since January, tied with Simmons for the best in the NBA. The Clippers have scored 120.4 points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the court since December 1. That gives Leonard the second-best offensive rating among all players in the league (minimum: 25 minutes per game) during that span.
Denver’s Nikola Jokic has been one of the most multidimensional players in the league over the past few seasons. He is shooting 43.7 percent on jump shots, which ranks Top 10 among all players who have taken at least 400 jumpers thus far. The center ranks second-best in the NBA on field goals made (77) within five to nine feet of the basket. His field goal percentage (61.6 percent) is the best among those with more than thirty attempts. He has recorded 10 triple-doubles in 2019-20, which ranks third-best in the NBA. His assist percentage (34.5 percent) and assist-to-usage rate (1.19) are both in the 100th percentile among all big men, per Cleaning the Glass.
The second-year superstar has been sensational for the Mavericks, leading Dallas to an impressive 62.0 winning percentage this season. His team has played very well even when they are not playing at home, as we recently noted. The guard has averaged 29.1 points per game on the road, second-best in the NBA. Doncic has scored 13.9 PPG as the ballhandler in pick-and-roll possessions, per Synergy Sports, which ranks third-best in the league. As a primary playmaker, his assist percentage (53.8 percent) ranks second-best behind only LeBron James among those with at least 100 minutes played. He leads the league with a dozen triple-doubles so far this season.
Davis is shooting 210-of-280 (75.0 percent) in the restricted area, which is the best among all players who have had at least 200 attempts this season. The big man is averaging 1.12 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports, which ranks second-best among those who have finished at least 800 possessions this season. Davis has more loose balls recovered per game (1.9) than anyone who has played at least ten games. The Lakers are currently 33-9 (.786 percent) in games when their superstar acquisition has played.
Since our last MVP Race update, Portland’s Damian Lillard is averaging 39.0 points with 5.8 three-pointers per game. The Trail Blazers have three wins and just one loss during this stretch, helping bounce back from a rough start to the season. Lillard is also leading the league in scoring with 34.3 PPG since January 1. He has hit 66 three-pointers from at least 28 feet, which is over five feet from beyond the NBA’s three-point line. That is over a dozen more than anyone else in the league has made in 2019-20. He is averaging 1.13 points per possession, per Synergy Sports, which ranks No. 1 overall among those who have finished at least 800 possessions this season. Lillard also leads all players with 757 points scored as the ballhandler in pick-and-roll possessions.
Knowing that narrative plays a big role in MVP voting, the momentum is there for the Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron James. He currently leads the league with 10.7 assists per game. The 35-year-old superstar is also putting up a career-high 2.1 three-pointers connected per game, including five three’s in less than three minutes against the San Antonio Spurs last night. He keeps putting up monumental performances, putting up outstanding numbers while also helping elevate the play of another star teammate in Davis. The more he keeps winning for the Lakers, the better the odds he will have of winning his fifth Most Valuable Player Award.
Harden has connected on 208 non-corner three-pointers, over twenty more than anyone else has hit thus far. The guard leads the league in jump shots (313) in 2019-20. He has once again been fantastic creating his own shot, too. Only 14.6 percent of his three-pointers have been assisted, which is the best among all players in the NBA. Harden has scored 16.2 points per game on isolation possessions, per Synergy, which is nearly ten points more than any other player in the league. In fact, his 762 points scored on this play type is more than any other team besides his own Houston Rockets. To put that in perspective, the Milwaukee Bucks lead the Eastern Conference with just 386 points scored in isolation.
He is averaging 8.7 points per game when operating in a transition offense, per Synergy. That ranks No. 1 overall in the NBA, over a point and a half more than anyone else thus far. He has the second-most dunks (141) and the most double-doubles (41) among all players in the league in 2019-20. His rebound percentage (18.8 percent) ranks Top 10 among all players who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game. Most important, though: Milwaukee is currently outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per 100 possessions when he has been on the court so far this season. That ranks as the best among those who have averaged at least 25 minutes per game.
The Philadelphia 76ers congratulate Jimmy Butler for his success with the Miami Heat.
Jimmy Butler and the Philadelphia 76ers had a short term tenure after acquiring him from the Minnesota Timberwolves in November of 2018. Butler played 55 games with the Sixers and he made some clutch plays and he played hard as he earned the respect of the Philadelphia fan base.
However, he then took his talents to South Beach to join the Miami Heat in the offseason and he has given vague reasons why he left the Sixers organization. People can speculate all they want there, but the Sixers are not bitter or anything like that.
Instead, they congratulate him on his success and they realize that Butler could still be in Philadelphia if not for a bounce or four.
“I will tell you from afar, we see him, we’re glad that he was with us for a little while,” said coach Brett Brown. “Had it not been for a bounce this way or that way, we maybe could’ve went on to do something quite special, but we didn’t. He’s having a hell of a year. He’s an NBA All-Star and we congratulate him.”
Butler is averaging 20.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists for the Heat on the season and he is leading them to the 4 seed so far in the East with a 33-15 record. It is a bit surprising considering the preseason expectations for Miami.
The key that has made Butler so successful is that he has the ball in his hands. In Philadelphia, the offense runs through Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid with Simmons having the ball in his hands the most and that caused some issues within the franchise.
“He’s probably right where he should be,” Brown added. “He’s got the ball. He’s effectively their point guard more than he isn’t and that was the juggling act we had to experience in Philly. He’s that good and talented and Ben’s got the ball and at times there was a challenge to figure that out.”
The Sixers and the Heat matchup on Monday for the fourth and final time on the season. Miami has won two of the first three so that makes this one a must-win game for the Sixers. [lawrence-related id=24830,24823,24792]
Previewing Monday’s Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat sports betting odds, with NBA matchup analysis and picks.
The Philadelphia 76ers (31-19) visit the Miami Heat (33-15) at the AmericanAirlines Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off Monday night. We analyze 76ers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.
76ers at Heat: Key injuries
76ers
C Joel Embiid (hand) probable
SG Josh Richardson (hamstring) out
PG Trey Burke (illness) questionable
HEAT
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
76ers at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
The Heat have a massive home advantage in this spot—their 21-3 home record is among the best in the NBA—and city of Miami is even more electric than usual since it hosted Super Bowl LIV Sunday night. Both teams had several players in attendance at the Super Bowl, but the home team has to have the edge being more used to the world-class social life of Miami.
Philadelphia’s road struggles have been well-documented. The 76ers are 9-17 away from home on the season and have lost nine of their last 11 games on the road, including a 116-95 whoopin’ Saturday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Monitor the injury report before making your wager because Embiid’s availability would severely impact the 76ers’ interior performance. The Heat give up the eighth-fewest points in the paint and have the sixth-best opponent’s field-goal percentage in the NBA.
However, let’s PASS on a moneyline bet because the 76ers +125 should be a bigger ‘dog and the Heat -150 is too chalky.
Philadelphia’s defense is very reliable—ranked third in opponent’s points per game and fourth in defensive rating—but their offense is inconsistent. Again, the absence of Embiid would be vital because he’s averaged 26.6 points and 13.6 rebounds in the three 76ers-Heat games so far this season. Plus the 76ers are 12-4 this season when they shoot above .40% from 3-point land, and the issue with that is the Heat have the top-ranked defense against the 3-pointers in the NBA.
Also, betting trends favor the Heat in this matchup. The 76ers are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five meetings, a league-worst 7-17-2 ATS on the road and 3-9-1 ATS on the road against teams above .500.
BET HEAT -2.5 (-110).
New to sports betting? A successful $10 wager on the Heat to win by at least 3 points would return a profit of $9.09.
I lean UNDER 211.5 but ultimately PASS ON THE TOTALin 76ers-Heat. Expect the Super Bowl hangover in a raucous Miami to hurt both the teams’ offenses. Both squads get after it defensively and are better than +4 in rebound differential per game. However, the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami and the Heat has a 15-9 Over/Under record at home this season.
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Previewing Tuesday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat sports betting odds, with NBA matchup analysis, picks and best bets.
The Boston Celtics (30-15) visit the Miami Heat (32-14) at AmericanAirlines Arena for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze Celtics-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.
Celtics at Heat: Key injuries
Celtics
SG Javonte Green (knee) questionable
SF Jayson Tatum (groin) doubtful
C Enes Kanter (hip) out
C Robert Williams III (hip) out
Heat
PG Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) questionable
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Celtics at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Circumstances dictate backing the CELTICS (-106) Tuesday night against the Heat (-115). On one hand, Miami is tied with the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-2 with the best home win/loss record in the NBA. On the other hand, Boston is 11-0 with a rest advantage with a plus-15.6 margin of victory and Miami is 3-5 on the second game of back-to-backs with a minus-9.8 point differential. Boston has won four straight games against Miami, including a 112-93 trouncing in their first meeting of the season.
They cancel each other out offensively—Miami averages 112.2 points per game and Boston averages 112.3 PPG—but the Celtics have the edge defensively, where they are ranked third in opponent PPG and fifth in defensive rating versus a Heat squad ranked 12th and 13th, respectively, in those same categories.
New to sports betting? Bet $106 on the Celtics to earn a profit of $100 if they win outright.
Ehhh … let’s PASS on an against the spread wager. With two top-10 offensively rated basketball teams squaring off, there’s no point in taking Celtics +1.5 (-121). If the Heat win by one, my bad.
I LEAN UNDER 218.5 (-106) for various reasons. Both teams play with a below-average tempo: Boston is ranked 17th in Pace and Miami is 26th. The Celtics have an Over/Under record of 4-7 when playing with a rest advantage and the O/U is 4-4 in Heat games when the playing on no rest.
Also, when you combine BetMGM‘s projection of this being a close game, the Celtics’ elite defense and the Heat’s assumed fatigue in this spot, a tightly contested, slow-paced game that plays to the Under is the most likely outcome.
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Previewing Monday’s Orlando Magic at Miami Heat sports betting odds, with NBA matchup analysis, picks and best bets.
The Orlando Magic (21-26) visit the Miami Heat (31-14) Monday at AmericanAirlines Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Magic-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.
Magic at Heat: Key injuries
Magic
PG D.J. Augustin (knee) out
SF Jonathan Isaac (knee) out
SF Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) out
Heat
C Bam Adebayo (ankle) probable
SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
PG Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) questionable
PG Goran Dragic (calf) questionable
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Magic at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
The Magic pasted the Heat 105-85 in their first meeting of the season, Jan. 3, and they have won three straight in Miami. C Nikola Vučević has killed the Heat winning eight of his last nine games with six double-doubles. The Heat are among the best home teams in the NBA, going 20-2 in Miami so far this year. Orlando is just 8-15 on the road, so it’s a longshot for the Magic to extend their Miami win streak to four games.
Also, the Heat are 9-1 straight up when playing with a rest advantage and the Magic are 1-6 outright in the second game of back-to-backs. The Magic (+190) aren’t getting a good enough price but there’s a good chance Orlando wins so the Heat (-238) is a no-go as well.
PASS ON THE MONEYLINE in favor of betting the spread in Magic-Heat.
Given the Magic’s success, plus the Heat’s current injury report, the Magic are the play. If Butler, Dragic and Nunn cannot play Monday then you’d be better off passing this game altogether. Butler has struggled in recent meetings with the Magic, as his teams have lost four of their previous five games and he has scored fewer than 15 points in three of those contests.
Despite their win/loss road struggles, the Magic have good ATS trends as it pertains to this matchup. Orlando is 12-10-1 ATS on the road and 4-4-1 ATS on the road against teams above .500. Finally, the Heat are 2-4-1 ATS when laying 5-7 points.
TAKE MAGIC (+4.5, +105) to stay within 4 points in a loss or win outright.
I LEAN UNDER 212.5 (-129) since the Heat are banged up in their starting five and both teams are good defensively. The Magic aren’t a good offensive team—ranked 29th in points per game and field-goal percentage—and the Heat are an above-average defensive team, ranked 12th in opponent PPG, seventh in opponent field-goal percentage, and first in opponent 3-point percentage. Orlando allows the fewest points per game to opponents and Magic games have the highest Under percentage in the NBA with a 19-26-2 O/U record.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Previewing Friday’s Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat sports betting odds, with NBA matchup analysis, picks and best bets.
The Los Angeles Clippers (31-14) head to the Magic City to play the Miami Heat (31-13) at AmericanAirlines Arena Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We analyze Clippers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.
Clippers at Heat: Key injuries
Clippers
PG Patrick Beverley (groin) questionable
SF Paul George (hamstring) out
Heat
PG Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) questionable
SF Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
PG Goran Dragic (calf) questionable
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Clippers at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Sigh … as confident as I am in the Clippers (-139) winning this game outright, I’m not stoked on laying Clippers the juice on the moneyline. Both the Clippers and the Heat excel against non-conference opponents:Miami is 11-7 outright and 11-6-1 against the spread versus the West, and Los Angeles is 12-4 outright and 10-6 ATS with a plus-10.9 margin of victory against the East.
Since I’m writing this I have to make a ruling on it and that’s for a PASS on the moneyline in favor of a line wager in Clippers-Heat.
BET CLIPPERS -2.5 (-106) because both teams could be without two starters but Miami’s injury situation is more detrimental than Los Angeles’. The Clippers are accustomed to playing without George, who’s missed 19 games compared to Butler’s six missed games for the Heat. Plus, don’t sleep on Dragic’s possible absence because they’ll need him since reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lou Williams, could light up Miami’s second unit. Here are some trendy reasons to back Los Angeles Friday:
The Clippers are 9-5 ATS with a plus-6.6 margin of victory as an away favorite.
Los Angeles is 5-3 ATS in road games against teams above .500 and 3-0 ATS when laying 1-2.5 points.
Also, even if Butler plays, Kawhi Leonard has consistently gotten the better of him throughout their careers:
The UNDER 219.5 (+105) is the only move if betting the total. The Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings plus both offenses are a little less efficient on Fridays: The Clippers average seven fewer points and the Heat fall 2.6 points per game below their season average on Fridays. If Dragic, Nunn and Butler all sit out then the Heat will be missing their three top scorers, and the Clippers have a 5-11 Over/Under record against teams above .500.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Previewing Wednesday’s Washington Wizards at Miami Heat sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.
The Washington Wizards (14-28) visit the Miami Heat (30-13) Wednesday at AmericanAirlines Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Wizards-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
This is the third and final regular-season meeting between the two. The Heat (-9.5, O/U: 228.5) won at home 112-103 Dec. 6, while the Wizards (+11, O/U: 224) returned the favor, holding home court for a 123-105 win Dec. 30.
Both teams won Monday. The Wizards snapped a three-game skid with a 106-100 home victory vs. the Detroit Pistons. The Heat, also on a one-game win streak, needed overtime to get past the visiting Sacramento Kings 118-113.
Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM.
Wizards at Heat: Key injuries
Wizards
PF Rui Hachimura (groin) out
SG Garrison Mathews (ankle) out
C Anzejs Pasecniks (ankle) questionable
PF Moritz Wagner (ankle) out
PG John Wall (Achilles) out
Heat
SF Jimmy Butler (hip) probable
PG Goran Dragic (knee) probable
SF Duncan Robinson (ankle) questionable
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
Wizards at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
AVOID. It’s no surprise the Heat are -500 because they own the league’s best home record at 19-1, but that is just too much chalk. Every $1 wagered on the Heat ML profits only $0.20 if they win. The Wizards (+375) offer a 3.75-to-1 payoff, but they’re not winning in Miami – they’re 5-17 on the road this season.
The HEAT (-9.5, -121) are the STRONGEST PLAY if Butler doesn’t sit. They’ll be focused on avenging the 18-point loss in D.C. three weeks ago. Miami owns the best ATS home record at 15-4-1 and the second-best ATS overall record at 25-16-2 (just behind the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 29-15 mark). If Butler takes the night off this becomes a small-unit wager.
New to sports betting? Every $1.21 wagered on the Heat’s spread will profit $1 if they win by 10 or more points.
Again, Butler’s status dictates the wager. If he plays, the OVER 227.5 (-115) is worth backing. The Wizards give up the most points in the league, allowing 119.8 PPG. Plus, Washington and Miami are both Over teams. The Wizards are 23-18-1 O/U on the season, while the Heat are 26-16-1. BUT, if Butler sits, this is NO PLAY.
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Johnny’s record since Dec. 1: 35-21-2. Strongest plays: 20-7.
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Each week, HoopsHype’s staff gives our Top 10 candidates for this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Which stars have stood out thus far?
Each week, HoopsHype’s staff gives the Top 10 candidates for this year’s Most Valuable Player award. This list highlights stars who are in the mix for the 2019-20 MVP award due to their impressive play.
Which stars have stood out? Here are our latest MVP rankings:
Jimmy Butler’s play has taken a slight dip recently, which would explain why he’s ranked lower on our list this week than he has in a while. In his last three games prior to missing the Miami Heat’s Monday night contest against the Sacramento Kings, Butler averaged 14.0 points and 6.0 rebounds on porous 36.4/28.6/80.0 shooting splits, so maybe getting that last game off to rest what was described as a hip injury was for the best, and could help the All-Star get back on track. At the same time, Butler’s jumper has been off all season long, so Miami is going to have to hope he finds his groove from the outside if they want to be at peak form when the playoffs roll around.
On Monday, Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard set a career-high and MLK Day record scoring clip when he dropped 61 points against the Golden State Warriors, to go with 11 triples, 10 rebounds and seven assists on the evening.
It was yet another magnificent outing for Lillard, who is the sole reason the Blazers are within two games of the Western Conference’s eighth seed despite what a tumultuous campaign they’ve had so far. With their All-NBA floor general in the game, Portland is 11.2 points per 100 possessions better than when he’s on the bench, which speaks to the heavy load Lillard has had to carry this year.
Usually, players on sub-.500 teams don’t get much of a look for MVP, but Lillard’s individual brilliance this year warrants a lot of credit. Without him, the Blazers would be battling for higher draft lottery odds and not for a spot in the postseason.
According to multiple advanced metrics, including Win Shares per 48 Minutes, Box Plus/Minus and Player Efficiency Rating, 2019-20 has easily been Donovan Mitchell’s best career season, as the talented young 2-guard has finally made the jump many expected him to make as a sophomore last year. Last week, Mitchell posted a ridiculous road performance, dropping 46 points and six rebounds while sinking seven three-pointers, many of the beyond difficult variety.
Mitchell’s high level of play has helped catapult the Utah Jazz to ranking sixth in net rating past the halfway mark of the season after a slow start to the campaign for the team. If Mitchell keeps it up, Utah is only going to get tougher.
It’s somehow flown under the radar even despite playing in a massive market, but Kawhi Leonard has been performing at an absurd level recently, averaging 36.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.8 steals over his last five games on fiery 55.8/42.9/86.1 shooting splits. The Los Angeles Clippers are 4-1 in that stretch, with the only loss coming on the road to a tough Denver Nuggets team. Leonard’s been so great this year that the Clippers rank fifth in net rating league-wide, despite the fact that Leonard and Paul George have only suited up together 18 total times this entire season, with a 14-4 record to show for it in those contests. Once that duo manages to string together a few weeks’ worth of games together, it’ll be interesting to see how the Clippers are performing. Could be scary.
A lot of the talk centered around the Nuggets recently has been about 21-year-old phenom Michael Porter Jr.‘s recent breakout, which is a shame because that has somewhat overshadowed All-Star big man Nikola Jokic’s impressive uptick in play. Since the start of the month, Jokic is averaging 23.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game while sinking a steamy 40 percent of his outside looks. Jokic has been so good that even despite a lot of injuries to the top of their rotation, Denver is currently second in the West with a 30-13 record. The Nuggets’ future with Jokic and Porter in their frontcout is looking scarily promising.
Ranking ninth in the NBA in points per game and third in blocks, the only reason Anthony Davis has taken a slight tumble in our rankings this week is due to the fact that he missed five games with a bruised tailbone. In his return outing for the Los Angeles Lakers, Davis had a quiet outing, dropping just nine points and four rebounds in under 23 minutes in what was probably L.A.’s worst performance of the season. No need to fret, though, as Davis will likely be back to his dominant self before too long.
After some up-and-down play since returning from an ugly ankle sprain, Luka Doncic was outstanding against Portland on Friday against the Blazers, exploding for 35 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, a performance that included multiple clutch shots, like the dagger three that effectively put the game to bed:
Luka Doncic (35 PTS) steps back for his career-high 8th triple and to extend the Mavs lead!@trailblazers 109@dallasmavs 120
That was just one of Doncic’s eight three-pointers on the night, too.
With recent changes the Dallas Mavericks have made to Doncic’s minutes (he’ll no longer play entire first and third quarters like he was earlier in the season), expect to see many more clutch moments coming up for the Slovenian superstar, now that he’ll have more energy late in games.
After somewhat struggling in the month of December after missing some time with injury (and we use struggling here in comparison to his otherworldly standards), LeBron James has bounced back in a big way thus far in January, averaging 25.7 points and 11.3 assists over the past three weeks while shooting over 50 percent from the floor. James’ best recent performance came on Saturday against the Houston Rockets, when he dropped 31 points and 12 assists as he was serenaded by MVP chants…by a road crowd in Houston. Shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that James is the leading All-Star vote-getter this season.
There may not be a full-blown crisis quite yet in Houston, but things are teetering as the team has lost five of their last six games and fallen to sixth in the West. It may not be so coincidental that over that stretch, James Harden has been struggling mightily, averaging 27.7 points per game while shooting 34.8 percent from the floor, and 23.9 percent from beyond the arc. As has been the case for years, the Rockets will only go as far as Harden takes them, so they’re going to need their superstar 2-guard to find his jumper, and soon, because you don’t want to fall too far behind in the Western Conference playoff race at any point of the season.
On the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks second league-wide in scoring and fifth in rebounds while placing second in field-goal percentage among ball-handlers. His Milwaukee Bucks, meanwhile, are second in offensive efficiency, first in defensive efficiency and first in overall net rating – by a mile. Things are going so well for Giannis and Co., in fact, that the reigning league MVP and 2019-20 MVP frontrunner recently told The Athletic that there isn’t a team in the league that the Bucks can’t beat. Bold statement, but one that Milwaukee has very much backed up thus far this season.
You can follow Frank Urbina on Twitter: @FrankUrbina_.
Previewing Friday’s Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat sports betting odds, with NBA matchup analysis and picks.
The Miami Heat (28-12) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18) at Chesapeake Energy Arena for an 8 p.m. ET tip off Friday night. We analyze Heat-Thunder odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.
Heat at Thunder: Key injuries
HEAT
SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Justise Winslow (back) out
THUNDER
C Steven Adams (knee) questionable
C Nerlens Noel (ankle) questionable
SF Abdel Nader (ankle) out
SG Andre Roberson (knee) out
Heat at Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 2:20 p.m. ET.
The Thunder and Heat are both above average on defense and play at a slower pace; Oklahoma City ranks 14th in defensive rating and 24th in pace in the NBA whereas Miami is 13th and 24th, respectively. Also, both squads are playing well recently—the Heat are 6-4 in their last 10 games and the Thunder are 7-3—but the advantage in this matchup goes to the Thunder because of the home/road splits. Miami is 10-11 on the road and Oklahoma City is 13-8 at home this season. Furthermore, the Thunder are better seasoned for a tough game as they’ve played the sixth toughest strength of schedule compared to the Heat’s 24th-ranked schedule strength.
BET THUNDER -125. New to sports betting? A $125 wager on the Thunder to win straight up returns a profit of $100.
PASS on the Thunder -1.5 (-115) moneyline because laying -115 for a minuscule 1.5 points of insurance isn’t a wise move when you are paying $125 to earn a $100 profit if the Thunder win outright. For what it’s worth, the Thunder are better in their betting situation compared to the Heat in this matchup—the Thunder are 3-1 against the spread as 1-2.5 point favorite and the Heat are 2-1 when getting 1-2.5 points. Also, the Thunder are 7-3 ATS versus opponents above .500 and the Heat are just 6-6 against foes above .500. In addition, the Thunder have an ATS advantage in their recent history; the Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. All these little tidbits just reinforce my bet of the Thunder on the moneyline.
So the past two Thunder-Heat games have went Over but the previous eight all went Under. That’s a little scary.
But I LEAN OVER 215.5 (-115) because the Heat have the highest Over percentage in the NBA with a 24-15-1 over/under record, the added juice to the Over and the following trends:
The Over is 7-1 in Heat last eight road games.
The Over is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games as a home favorite.
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