Jamaal Williams – Page 23 – Syndication Server

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 2

Which surprise Week 1 standouts are the real deal in fantasy football?

NFL 2021 is upon us with the first 16 of a record 272 games in the books to kick off the league’s longest-ever regular season.

We witnessed the typical mix of expected (Patrick Mahomes rallying the Kansas City Chiefs from a double-digit deficit to a win), unexpected (the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles completely dominating the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, as road underdogs), and the downright strange (reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers laying a 3-point egg in a 35-point neutral-site beatdown at the hands of Jameis Winston and the temporarily displaced New Orleans Saints).

Fantasy football-wise, there were the usual Week 1 standouts who came out of nowhere to blow up on benches or who are now taunting and tempting fanasy general managers from the waiver wire.

But which of these opening-week standouts are flash-in the-pan fool’s gold (recall Mitchell Trubisky, Malcolm Brown and Darius Slayton from Week 1 a season ago), and which are the real deal (Robby Anderson and Logan Thomas, lightly regarded in 2020 drafts, also had big opening weeks a year ago)?

Here’s the best-guess fantasy forecast for 10 of the surprise standouts (going by relative preseason ADPs) of the opening weekend and whether we’re buying in or simply bypassing …

Saints QB Jameis Winston

Fantasy position rank (Huddle PPR scoring): 6th with 31.1 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying.

Sure, we all know that throwing a touchdown pass on every fourth attempt as Winston did Sunday (5 TDs, 20 attempts) is far from sustainable, but Sean Payton’s offensive system is.

It’s a system that established Drew Brees as a locked-in top 10 fantasy option for nearly 15 seasons, and Winston — with his superior deep-passing ability compared to the twilight-era Brees and better mobility (he rushed for 37 yards Sunday) — has the skills to thrive in this offense.

That’s as long as Winston can avoid the crippling interception clusters that ended his starting run in Tampa. Any sort of relapse will be sure to have Payton reconsidering and inserting his longtime favorite Taysom Hill for more snaps.

There also is a question about the talent level of the Saints’ current collection of pass-catchers outside of super-stud RB Alvin Kamara. But if wideouts Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway, Kenny Stills and Tre’Quan Smith and tight ends Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman can outperform expectations and hold things together until No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas (hopefully) is ready to return from injury in a month or so, Winston has definite QB1 staying power.

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff

Fantasy position rank: 8th with 30.3 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Bypassing — at least in standard-size, one-quarterback leagues.

No quarterback had more garbage-time production in Week 1 than Goff, who attempted 57 passes (trailing only Dak Prescott’s 58 on Thursday) as the Lions were trailing by multiple touchdowns from the second quarter on Sunday against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.

Detroit’s new starter did complete two-thirds of those attempts for 338 yards a trio of TDs and even a pair of two-point conversions, but Goff averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt with 20 of his 56 targets going to running backs. So it was volume-driven production to be sure.

And, hey, we know with the Lions’ overall talent level that Goff is sure to have plenty of opportunity to rack up garbage-time stats, but it’s certainly not something you want to rely on from your starting QB in 10- to 14-team leagues — especially given the Lions’ arguably league-worst wide receiver corps.

Houston Texans QB Tyrod Taylor

Fantasy position rank: 12th with 26.6 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying in two-QB leagues or as a fall-back option if you waited on QB and are already nervous about your starter in your single-quarterback league.

Unlike Goff, Taylor produced the majority of his QB1 stats (21-of-33 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and 4-40 rushing) with his team leading by multiple scores Sunday against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars.

Taylor isn’t spectacular, but he’s a steady veteran hand who’s good at avoiding turnovers. He also offers upside with his legs as his 40 yards rushing Sunday on 10 attempts ranked fourth among QBs for the opening weekend.

Lions RB Jamaal Williams

Fantasy position rank: Tied for 2nd with 25.0 PPR points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — as running back depth or as a flex position starting option in 12-team-or-larger leagues.

As we discussed above with Goff’s garbage-time numbers, Williams isn’t going to see nine targets (and eight receptions) per week.

But he is going to be involved in the Lions’ offense as the team’s coaches promised as much on several occasions during the offseason. On Sunday against the Niners, Williams had 17 touches to lead back D’Andre Swift’s 19 and finished with 0.6 more PPR points thanks to his superior yards-per-carry average (6.0-3.5) while logging only two fewer rushing attempts (11-9).

And given Swift’s health question marks even as a second-year back, Williams is at the ready to assume the every-down RB duties in the Motor City.

Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon

Fantasy position rank: 7th with 20.8 fantasy points.

Buying or bypassing? Buying.

A number of fantasy pundits and GMs were ready to cast Gordon aside this offseason when the Broncos moved up in the second round to draft RB Javonte Williams in late April.

And while the team loves the hard-running Williams — he had three more rushing attempts (14-11) than his veteran teammate in Sunday’s win over the New York Giants — we saw the old MGIII rise to the occasion in the Meadowlands, displaying more explosiveness (a game-sealing 70-yard TD burst in the fourth quarter) and getting more work in the passing game (catching all three of his targets for 17 yards while Williams had one catch on one target for a minus-4 yards).

The rookie is certainly going to stay involved and could easily command roughly 50 percent of the Denver RB touches, but the talented Gordon was simply written off too soon and figures to have solid RB2/flex appeal for the foreseeable future.

San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

Fantasy position rank: 13th with 16.4 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — mainly due to the RB-friendly system he plays in — but resist the temptation to overpay.

With third-round rookie RB Trey Sermon a surprise, healthy scratch and veteran starting back Raheem Mostert going down early in Sunday’s game with a knee — and yet another — injury that is expected to sideline him for the first half of the season, Mitchell was suddenly handed the valuable keys as the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan attack.

The rookie sixth-round pick took the gig and ran with it, accounting for 19 of the team’s 22 RB carries and rushing for 104 yards, including a 38-yard scoring burst in the second quarter.

As impressive as the debut was, Shanahan’s running back master plan in any given week remains as unpredictable as ever, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sermon — who was clearly sent a message with his Week 1 inactive designation — getting the bulk of the work in Week 2 or JaMychal Hasty, who received a pair of touches Sunday — suddenly elevated into the lead role to see what he can do.

That said, the most likely Niners backfield scenario is that Mitchell has earned another turn as the team’s lead back and that makes the rookie a must pick-up in almost all leagues.

Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk

Fantasy position rank: 10th with 24.0 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Buying — but only as a deeper-league bench stash.

Three other Arizona wideouts (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore) received as many targets (five) as Kirk did in Sunday’s surprise thrashing of the host Tennessee Titans, but none were more efficient than Kirk, who reeled in all five for 70 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Cards are in need of a consistently productive pass-catcher to emerge opposite the stud WR1 Hopkins, but Kirk has so far shown only WR2 flashes in his boom-or-bust three seasons. In 2020, for example, he had a midseason run of three straight 20-point-plus games, but he topped 10 PPR points in only three of his 11 other contests on the season.

Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams

Fantasy position rank: 14th with 22.2 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Intriguing as always but just renting for now.

Speaking of boom-or-bust wide receivers, the Bolts’ Williams is even more mercurial. In 2020, he had four games with at least 17.1 PPR points, but he also had seven contests with 5.8 or fewer.

Perhaps it’s just a simple matter of volume.

On Sunday against host Washington, Williams did attract double-digit targets (12) — only one fewer than WR1 Keenan Allen — for only the fourth time in 57 career games and turned those into a career-high eight catches for 82 yards and a TD in the Chargers’ 20-16 win.

The Bolts most certainly have room for another productive pass-catcher to emerge with talented second-year QB Justin Herbert slinging the rock, so perhaps the fifth season will be the charm for Williams, who has never finished a season ranked among the top-30 PPR wideouts.

Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski

Fantasy position rank: 1st with 29.0 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? It’s Gronk — and the position is tight end — so we’re definitely in.

Tom Brady threw 50 passes in the Bucs’ 31-29 season-opening win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, and only WR Chris Godwin (14) was targeted more times than Robert James Gronkowski’s eight. No Tampa pass-catcher was more efficient, though, as the veteran tight end caught all eight for 90 yards and two TDs.

That’s certainly not going to be the case every week — volume or efficiency wise — given the width and depth of the Bucs’ pass-catching corps. But at tight end — where TDs arguably have more relative value than any of the other three main fantasy positions — the 6-foot-6, 270-pound Gronk is a standout among all-time standouts with 102 career regular season and playoff TD grabs.

So with the fantasy position as shallow as ever — and even with Gronkowski having turned 32 in May — those who missed out on the elite TE1s should all be making a waiver claim if he’s available.

Saints TE Juwan Johnson

Fantasy position rank: 5th with 17.1 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Speculatively buying, unless you have one of the elite TE1s.

As aforementioned, the Bucs only threw 20 passes Sunday — and Johnson, the second-year undrafted free agent, was only targeted three times — but he caught all three for 21 yards and, most importantly, two TDs.

Surely that will earn the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Johnson more snaps and looks in a passing offense in need of productive pass-catchers with the WR1 Thomas out. And, sorry for repetition, but those also are in short supply at the shallow fantasy tight end position.

Don’t overspend, but pick up Johnson now if you have a spare bench spot and see what develops.

4 Lions takeaways from a second viewing of the Week 1 loss to the 49ers

4 Lions takeaways from watching the Lions Week 1 loss to the 49ers for a second time

Watching an NFL game for a second time often produces some different opinions and takeaways than the heat-of-the-moment reactions from viewing the action in real-time. The rewatch strips away the emotional intensity and also offers a chance to really study the Xs and Os and player performances on a deeper level.

I went back and re-watched the Detroit Lions in their Week 1 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

In addition to the takeaways here, I also wrote out my evaluation of Penei Sewell’s performance after a (different) re-watch of the rookie offensive tackle.

D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams each top 100 total yards in Week 1 loss

They became the first Lions RB duo to each hit 100 total yards in over five years

It’s not often the Lions get even one running back to top 100 total yards from scrimmage in a single game. It’s much rarer when two Lions RBs hit the century mark in the same game. But that’s what D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams did in Detroit’s Week 1 loss to San Francisco.

Swift logged 11 carries for 39 yards, but his eight receptions for 65 yards lifted him over the century mark. Williams posted 54 yards on nine carries and chipped in another 56 on eight receptions. Each scored once, Williams on the ground and Swift on a highlight-reel screen pass.

It was the first time the Lions had two RBs top 100 yards from scrimmage in almost exactly five years. In Detroit’s Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sept. 11, 2016, Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah were the last to do it. Riddick had 45 yards rushing and 63 receiving, while Abdullah ran for 63 and caught five passes for 57 yards.

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Riddick would have just one other game in his career topping 100 combined yards, in Week 8 of that 2016 season. Abdullah also hit the century mark in yards from scrimmage just one more time, in Week 4 of 2017.

Swift had two games last year accruing at least 100 total yards, including a Week 5 outing where he ran for 114 yards. Williams, making his Lions debut, had three such games while with the Packers in 2020.

Lions vs 49ers: Studs and Duds for Week 1

The Detroit Lions comeback came up short against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, but some performed well where others fell short.

When Dan Campbell took over, he assured everyone this team would give up and put up a fight through every second of the game. And that is exactly what was given. So even though the Detroit Lions comeback ended up falling short, dropping their season opener to the San Francisco 49ers 41-33, you can see the fight in this team that has been missing from years past.

Throughout the game, it became apparent the Lions were being outplayed by the offensive genius, Kyle Shanahan. It seemed he could do anything he wanted against a Lions defense that had some high hopes entering the season. Somehow the Lions made it interesting at the end with a successful onside kick and well-timed turnover, where it looked like the Lions had something brewing, but it was too much of a hole for the Lions to dig themselves out of.

Thankfully, there were some bright spots the Lions can work with heading into Week 2, but on the other side of the coin, there are too many lackluster performances in this week’s studs and duds.

ESPN’s potential team surprises list features a big year for Jamaal Williams

Williams leading the Lions in rushing isn’t as unrealistic as it might seem based on D’Andre Swift’s ongoing injury issue

A provocative new list from ESPN’s Dan Graziano features a “potential surprise” for each of the NFL’s 32 teams. Graziano’s listing for Detroit is an interesting one that might not be terribly surprising either.

The potential surprise is Jamaal Williams, and not D’Andre Swift, leading the Lions in rushing. And while at first blush it’s easy to get indignant about that idea, it’s not far-fetched.

More than once over the years, new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has made it clear he likes to use multiple running backs — that he models this philosophy on the Carolina teams that used both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Yes, the team has 2020 second-round pick D’Andre Swift on the roster. But it gave Williams a two-year, $6 million contract with $3.5 million guaranteed as a free agent. Detroit definitely plans to use him. Add in the fact that Swift has been dealing with injuries throughout camp, and it’s set up for Williams to assume a large role.

Williams struggled in the preseason, gaining just 15 yards on nine carries in the opener against the Buffalo Bills. But he’s looked sharp in training camp and is the clear No. 2 behind Swift. And Swift is indeed battling a groin injury that has prevented him from practicing much at all this summer.

This is one of those “surprises” that might be a legit reality. It also highlights why the Lions, who plan to run the ball heavily on offense, targeted an upgrade like Williams as the No. 2 back and also why Detroit kept four RBs on the 53-man roster.

Lions training camp awards for 2021

Handing out awards from the Detroit Lions training camp in 2021

The 2021 edition of the Detroit Lions training camp concludes with the final practice session on Wednesday, August 25th. The Lions are off on Thursday before wrapping the preseason on Friday night at home against the Indianapolis Colts.

It was great being back at Allen Park for training camp after a year where neither the public nor the media had access. I was in the media throng for 10 of the practice sessions and paid rapt attention to trusted sources for the days I was not. The honors here lean heavily on the days I was in attendance but do expand out to cover the entire three weeks of action.

It’s time to unseal the envelopes for the 2021 Detroit Lions training camp awards!

Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs

2021 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

A sleeper running back is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Running Back
1	CAR	Christian McCaffrey	Last year burned many fantasy owners, but his injuries were ankle and thigh, nothing like a torn ACL. When he did play, he was yet again very productive.
2	MIN	Dalvin Cook	Cook always misses two games or so, but dominates when he plays. Grab Alexander Mattison for the two games and enjoy massive fantasy points in all the rest.
3	TEN	Derrick Henry	He was unstoppable last season. Cannot fault the pick but he’s also coming off a monstrous 832 touches over the last two years. That’s the sort of volume ended Terrell Davis’ career. He’s bound to be mortal eventually. Probably. Maybe.
4	NO	Alvin Kamara	Brees is gone but he was diminished the last two years anyway. For the last four seasons, Kamara was Top-4 in all but one when he was injured in 2019. He catches at least 80 passes per year, regardless of quarterback, and a banged up Michael Thomas only means even more dump off passes.
5	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Elliott is usually a Top-5 back and even without Dak Prescott, being hurt himself, and losing most of his O-line, he still ended up as No. 9 last season. The gang is all back.
6	CLE	Nick Chubb	Chubb may be the best pure runner in the NFL and he works behind the No. 1 offensive line. Only his lack of receptions holds him down this far.
7	NYG	Saquon Barkley	There are plenty of other backs in the draft. The first round is not where you should be saying “maybe this will turn out okay.” Until more clarity on his health happens – and it almost certainly will not prior to most drafts – then the risk makes Barkley a scary prospect. He never falls far enough to compensate for his risk.
8	IND	Jonathan Taylor	The rookie blew up for 1,468 total yards and 12 touchdowns to be the No. 6 fantasy back last year. The Wentz situation makes it a little less clear, but Taylor runs behind the No. 2 offensive line and Marlon Mack still is no threat.
9	LAC	Austin Ekeler	Four years into his career, Ekeler was better than No. 25 only once. The offense that fed him 92 catches in 2019 is long gone. He’s never ran more than 132 times in a season and stayed healthy for just the one Cinderella 2019 blip.
10	GB	Aaron Jones	This is a good spot for Jones. The return of Aaron Rodgers and great O-line are major positives. The biggest concern is Jones staying healthy and going from the No. 2 rushing schedule strength to the No. 31. Wouldn’t take him any higher.
11	PIT	Najee Harris	There’s plenty to be wary about with a rookie running back on a team with a terrible O-line and a fading quarterback. But Harris was the first back drafted in April and the only rookie stepping into a heavy workload. He was dynamic at Bama with 1,891 total yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior. Expectations are naturally very high.
12	WAS	Antonio Gibson	The hybrid-player with only 77 touches in two years at Memphis broke all conventions when he ended as the No. 13 fantasy back last year. He’s drawing even better reviews from camp this year. Maybe a head-scratcher, but one that scores a lot of fantasy points.
13	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	The Chiefs’ rusher is rising in the rankings for good reason. He missed three games, had no real preseason, and his O-line blew up in 2020. He’s worth a mulligan in the most explosive offense in the NFL.
14	CIN	Joe Mixon	Missing 10 games with a foot injury last year soured him to many, but the Bengals O-line is improved, the rushing schedule is much better, Giovani Bernard left, and the coaches intend to make Mixon into a workhorse. Worth the risk here.
15	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	Dobbins proved a force with 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, and he’s rock solid here. But he doesn’t catch much and the Ravens are committed to their committee.
16	CHI	David Montgomery	Shocking as it seems, Montgomery was the No. 4 fantasy back last year when Tarik Cohen was hurt and HC Matt Nagy had no other inferior back to steal the carries. The Bears have the No. 2 rushing schedule paired with the same bad O-line. He’s worth higher than this and Cohen is slow to return from a torn ACL.
17	SEA	Chris Carson	Carson has been a Top-20 fantasy back in each of the last three years. The schedule is a little better and Rashaad Penny spent the last three years as an injury waiting to happen. Always solid, never spectacular.
18	DET	D’Andre Swift	Here’s another rookie that struggled in the COVID-19-impacted season. Swift gets new coaches that want to turn him into a Alvin Kamara-like player. The O-line is better than most and so far it appears the Lions’ offense is mostly up to Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Jared Goff was given some sketchy wideouts, so Swift can be a valuable outlet.
19	PHI	Miles Sanders	While Sanders has the talent to produce far better than this, he is also on a team that is committed to a rotation even with new coaches. A rushing quarterback only serves to further diminish what the backfield can do.
20	LV	Josh Jacobs	This is a level equal to Jacobs’ rookie year. He was No. 8 in 2020 but the addition of Kenyan Drake scares away fantasy team owners. That’s probably overrated. This is should be the worst that he’ll do.
21	MIA	Myles Gaskin	The Dolphins did nothing in the draft for the backfield and only picked up free agent Malcolm Brown. Gaskin doesn’t have the pedigree or resume to earn him a starting job. But he has the one thing that trumps all else. He gets the opportunity. And he catches the ball well with 41 catches in 2020. Plus the Fins have the No. 3 rushing schedule. Maybe he disappears in 2022, but he’s poised for a decent year in 2021.
22	ATL	Mike Davis	Another back that had far fewer touches during his first five years on three teams. But one season in Carolina when Christian McCaffrey was hurt and he converted that into a surprising starting gig for the Falcons. It’s a new offense under HC Arthur Smith but Davis caught 59 passes for the Panthers last year and ran 165 times. The Falcons did not bring in anyone else to challenge him.
23	CLE	Kareem Hunt	This may end up as a steal. The Browns intend to run their offense through Nick Chubb and Hunt with the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL. This is the worst he’ll do. With Chubb banged up last year, Hunt finished as the No. 10 fantasy back.
24	JAX	James Robinson	Robinson was a huge surprise when he replaced Leonard Fournette. This season, there is a whole new offense, a new rookie quarterback, a below-average O-line and they added Travis Etienne in the first round. They say the rookie becomes the third-down back, but Etienne twice ran for 1,600 yards at Clemson. Good rushing schedule, though. Just feels risky like Etienne may increase his role while Robinson declines later in the season when you really need him.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back
25	LAR	Darrell Henderson	The loss of Cam Akers devastated this backfield that had already parted with Malcolm Brown. Henderson rises to RB1 by default and the former third-rounder of 2019 turned in several nice games last year. But he’s had injury issues including a high-ankle sprain in 2020. The Rams will use a committee approach, so Henderson is not the new Akers. But he should, for now, be the primary back.
26	JAX	Travis Etienne	Jags do not need Etienne to step into a full-time running back role with James Robinson there, but the new coaching staff grabbed Etienne with a first-round pick. So far, the plan is for Etienne to be a third-down back which alone could justify this draft spot. But he’s too talented to not, at least eventually, become a primary back. Could start slower, though.
27	SF	Raheem Mostert	2019 was his magical year and even then only as the No. 25 fantasy back. His other five years never played more than 9 games or ranked better than 47. No thanks.
28	ARI	Chase Edmonds	Risk is here with never more than 850 total yards in a season, but Kenyan Drake is gone and Edmonds stepped up last year as the No. 2 back with 53 receptions. The addition of James Conner could end up as a true two-back system, but ARI has a better O-line, easier schedule and a more mature offense.
29	DEN	Javonte Williams	Williams has climbed draft boards all summer long. Melvin Gordon is still there and maybe the No. 1 back at least to start. But he’s in his final contract year and the Broncos moved up to grab the NCU star that has all the physical attributes and skill set to become an elite NFL back. Denver owns the No. 1 rushing schedule strength so there may be enough for both backs to matter.
30	NE	Damien Harris	Maybe third time is the charm? Two lost seasons for the ex-Alabama rusher but he gained 5.0 YPC on his 137 runs last year including three 100-yard games. Pats backfield has been a mess for a decade, but Harris remains at the top until he is injured yet again. If Mac Jones starts, the offense becomes more traditional and the RB1 will likely account for more.
31	DEN	Melvin Gordon	Gordon was Top-12 every year he did not hold out. But he never stays healthy, only once ever broke 1,000 rush yards in six years and relied mostly on short-yardage touchdowns. Final year of contract and almost certainly gone in 2022. Expectations are that Javonte Williams becomes the primary back sooner than later, so Gordon’s fantasy value is likely to decline as the season progresses.
32	NYJ	Michael Carter	He’s smaller at only 5-8 and 190 pounds, but the Jets added him to a backfield that appears to be devoid of talent. Offense promises to be better under OC Mike LaFleur and Carter should be the lead back here. None of current Jets’ rushers gained more than 254 yards last year. Very low bar to start and Carter adds receiving
33	SF	Trey Sermon	Another rookie that rises in drafts each week. Bottom line – Sermon is likely the best inside rusher on the team but the offense always splits up carries. Has the most upside of any 49ers back. But no runner totaled more than 153 carries in a season since HC Kyle Shanahan showed up in 2017.
34	TB	Leonard Fournette	He was a testament as to why early fantasy drafts are risky. Fournette turned it on later last season, and the Buccaneers head into this year with two rushers. Fournette deserves to go first since he does more as a receiver but Ronald Jones still figures in and technically is the primary back. Buccaneers also fall to the No. 32 rushing schedule, so his receptions should help keep him on the field, unless Giovani Bernard assumes the role.
36	HOU	David Johnson	Texans backfield is crowded with mediocre has-beens and never-weres, and the O-line is still a liability. Worst rushing schedule. That all said, Johnson is most likely to lead the group whatever that means this year. What it mostly means is that you waited too long if Johnson is one of your starting running backs.
37	ARI	James Conner	The backfield in Arizona will be split between Conner and Chase Edmonds and last year the totals were only average for an NFL backfield. Edmonds has the advantage of knowing the offense and catching 53 passes last year. But Conner at 6-1, 233 pounds is likely to take the inside role over the 5-9, 205 pound Edmonds. Cardinals have a lighter rushing schedule this year. Coming off toe surgery but should be fine.
38	BUF	Zack Moss	Had ankle surgery in January but expected to be good to go for Week 1. This was one of the worst backfields in 2020 but Moss was busier at the end of that season. Singletary lost carries to Moss and evolved into a receiving back by the end of the year. Moss should continue to see more carries. Josh Allen running in scores undercuts what Moss could do.
39	GB	A.J. Dillon	Dillon is a must-have for the Aaron Jones owner and should supply stand-alone fantasy value with short-yardage and goal line work. The Packers rushing strength of schedule plummets from No. 2 down to only No. 31 for this season. But the O-line is one of the best.
40	LV	Kenyan Drake	He’s a great handcuff for the Josh Jacobs owner, and may pick up some work as a third-down option. He’s had his shot as a primary back and wasn’t quite up to the task.
41	BAL	Gus Edwards	Ravens just signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract as a part of the rotation. He’ll be No. 2 behind J.K. Dobbins and has no real chance of ever supplying RB1 stats. But – he’s always going to be good for some yardage and a catch or two per game. The Ravens like him and he’s a decent roster stash in case it all goes wrong and you need a consistent – even if minimally – running back. Solid O-line helps.
42	WAS	J.D. McKissic	New quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t likely toss another 110 targets at McKissic like last year. He’s a distant second to Antonio Gibson but will remain a third-down back to use to cover bye weeks.
43	BUF	Devin Singletary	Third-rounder from 2019 hasn’t quite caught fire in Buffalo and Zack Moss is taking more of the rushing load at the least. This deeply, he has enough value to merit a fantasy roster spot but his usage is trending the wrong way with the Bills
44	DAL	Tony Pollard	The Cowboys want to keep Zeke Elliott fresher for the playoffs, and Pollard looked great when he replaced the elite rusher that the defense cared about. He should see at least a tick more use this year and is a capable back if they need him to step up and replace Elliott if needed. Mostly – just the handcuff for the Elliott owner.
45	DET	Jamaal Williams	The Lions intend to use D’Andre Swift and Williams as a tandem backfield and even said “the hot hand” gets the bigger share. But the pair are complementary with Swift the fast, outside rusher and receiver and Williams more of an inside puncher. Lions have an all-new scheme, and set of coaches and skill players, but they also have an above-average O-line. Williams is a handcuff for Swift but could produce fantasy relevant stats even as a stand-alone back.
46	IND	Nyheim Hines	Nothing wrong with swinging for the fence this deep, but there’s a lot to be said about a third-down guy like Hines who catches 60 passes per season and offers about 10 points every week in PPR leagues. He won’t win your league, but he could help keep your team afloat if your backfield has injuries.
47	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Handcuff for Dalvin Cook who always misses a game or two. But short of Cook being out, Mattison offers nearly nothing while Cook handles everything.
48	NO	Latavius Murray	There is conjecture that the Saints will play Alvin Kamara as a receiver more and that Murray sees a spike in rushing from his normal 140 rushes per year. But Taysom Hill may take up carries and touchdowns, and Murray is 31 years old. Saints have a great O-line and Murray could still deliver equal to this level, but he’s getting old to expect much else.
49	HOU	Phillip Lindsay	The Texans’ log jam at running back should clear out a bit by the start of the season, but maybe not by your fantasy draft. Lindsay is just a lottery ticket that likely doesn’t pay off with what appears to be a very bad offense for 2021.
50	NYJ	Tevin Coleman	Maybe Coleman reunites with with his 49ers coaches, and he’s certainly the only veteran that’s done anything in their NFL career in their backfield. But the 28-year-old Coleman hasn’t amounted to much since 2018 with the Falcons. He’s often injured now and the Jets only paid him $2M for one year.
51	CHI	Tarik Cohen	Tore his ACL last year and still not healthy. Nope. Do not draft players that are already injured.
52	SEA	Rashaad Penny	Speaking of injured players, Penny spent all three years getting injured or recovering. Now word is that DeeJay Dallas may take some third-down duty. Going on four years, not drafting Penny has been the wise move.
53	TB	Ronald Jones	He is listed on the top of the depth chart and may end up with more carries than Leonard Fournette, but his final eight games totaled only three catches. And worse yet, Bucs have the worst rushing schedule.
54	NE	James White	No Brady, no bueno. Cam Newton preferred to run rather than dump off to White. If Mac Jones gets the start, White may matter again.
55	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	You can be really sure that if I own the best fantasy running back, I am going to own his backup. And yes, I was torched last year when I did not do this with Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers want to take it easier on McCaffrey and that could help Hubbard, but they always say that sort of thing. Hubbard is worth stealing.
56	LAR	Xavier Jones	That backfield for the Rams became interesting and yet muddy when Cam Akers was lost. Darrell Henderson defaults as the primary back but Jones should see some action. Jake Funk may also be involved. Until it is all sorted out and made permanent, Jones is a worthy final running back draft pick that could surprise.
57	IND	Marlon Mack	Mack tore his Achilles last year and Jonathan Taylor took full advantage, even as a rookie. He’s nothing more than a waiver wire pick if bad things happen to Taylor.
59	NYG	Devontae Booker	Booker is just a backup for Saquon Barkley, but Alfred Morris may also get involved. Barkley seems likely to take it easy to open the year, but Booker is not even a great handcuff, let alone have reliable weekly fantasy value.
60	HOU	Mark Ingram	The 31-year-old Ingram seems to have hit the 30-year-old wall in Baltimore last year and all but disappeared. Landing on a terrible offense with a bad O-line when he’s over the hill doesn’t promote any positive vibes.

Best of the rest

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – The Patriots have long used a committee approach to their backfield, and the rookie Stevenson may only be the No. 4 back. But there’s speculation that Sony Michel may be dropped, James White remains an under-used third-down back and primary rusher Damien Harris has been less than durable in his two years. The burly ex-Sooner has impressed and could see more work than expected. An early comparison to Corey Dillon is probably just bluster, but there is some upside here.

Dan Campbell: Lions will roll with the hot hand in a 1-2 punch at running back

Campbell referenced the usage of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray in New Orleans as his goal in Detroit

It might not be the news that fantasy football pundits want to hear, but the Detroit Lions plan at running back is a timeshare between D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. But the share of the time and reps is a fluid situation from week to week and even quarter to quarter, according to head coach Dan Campbell.

The coach was asked about Williams, who signed as a free agent from Green Bay this offseason, and if the RB was comfortable with his role in Detroit.

“Absolutely,” Campbell said. “He knew exactly what he (was going to get) – and he embraces it, he wants to be here.”

Campbell then expanded upon his initial answer,

“By the way, it’s a one-two punch. We’re going to use both of those guys, they know that. A guy gets a hot hand, he’s rolling. If Jamaal is in there, we’re rolling. Jamaal is going to be rolling and we’ll use (D’Andre) Swift for other things, which is fine. That’s a good problem to have. I’m glad we got him; I know that.”

Coach Campbell referenced his old team, the New Orleans Saints, and how that team successfully used multiple backs within the offense.

“The place I just came from, obviously with (New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara) AK, and to have (former Saints RB) Mark Ingram when I first got there. Mark was a stud, still is a stud, by the way. That’s my vision of this one-two punch. To have what we had after we left with (New Orleans Saints RB Latavius) Murray as well. Murray was that guy for us and that’s how I see Jamaal Williams for us, for Detroit. He’s high energy. He’s a bit of a hammer and I think he’s a guy your team can feed off of a little bit. I said that when we signed him. That was always what Mark was for us and Latavius Murray when Mark left us. That’s what Jamaal is.”

For reference, in 2020 Kamara and Murray split the carries up with Kamara getting 187 and Murray 146. One year earlier it was Kamara outpacing Murray, 171 to 146. Kamara did get 107 and 97 passing targets in those two seasons, respectively, to Murray’s 34 and 26.

Figure on a similar split in Detroit between Swift, who does draw some Kamara comparisons, and Williams. However, Williams is a more accomplished receiving threat than Murray ever was in his career.

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Finding fantasy football PPR value buys: Running backs

Where can gamers turn to make up ground from PPR RBs?

With the tremendous popularity of point-per-reception leagues, fantasy footballers find themselves with different strategic decisions to ponder before draft day.

One of the most common scenarios is not necessarily a strategic move but a situational problem every gamer eventually will encounter: Not every player you will covet is ideal for PPR scoring, of course, so it forces gamers to feel like they need to chase receptions elsewhere, almost as some players do with certain categories in roto scoring in baseball.

This scenario tends to be most commonly found at the running back position. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb immediately come to mind as the types to compel investment in reception-friendly counterparts. This also happens at wide receiver, where low-volume players tend to make fantasy owners look for make-up points elsewhere. We’ll examine WRs and tight ends in an upcoming release.

Most targeted in 2020

Identifying which teams utilize their running backs the most in the passing game is a fine place to start. In 2020, the top target shares at the position belonged to:

Rk	Team	RB Targ	Targ %
1	New England Patriots	122	29.2
2	New Orleans Saints**	143	28.8
3	Washington Football Team	161	28.1
4	Indianapolis Colts	135	25.7
5	Los Angeles Chargers*	156	25.5
6	San Francisco 49ers*	136	24.5
7	Green Bay Packers	115	23.0
8	Carolina Panthers	114	21.7
9	Las Vegas Raiders	112	21.5
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	119	19.6

*denotes change in offensive system
**denotes change in OC but system remains in place

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use 12-team, PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after June 1.

No team targeted its backfield more on a percentage basis than the Patriots, despite the return of pass-catching back James White, whose 2020 per-game target count was the lowest since his rookie season of 2014. Expect the target share of New England backs to depreciate in 2021 after an upgrade to the receiving outlets, but White shouldn’t be too far off from his ’20 averages (4.4 targets and 3.5 receptions). There’s very little upside to drafting White, even at a discount.
Alvin Kamara should be heavily targeted once again, even though offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi took a lateral career move with the LA Chargers.
Austin Ekeler will have a new offensive coordinator in Lombardi, a Sean Payton understudy, whose system should frequently target the backfield. There’s potential for another massive target share for Ekeler, provided he remains healthy, after LA arguably regressed at tight end and doesn’t have a clear-cut WR3 to ascend. The Payton system hasn’t been known for using three-wide base sets, anyway.
Mike McDaniel became the official OC in the offseason, but it’s still Kyle Shanahan’s system. The 38-year-old McDaniel has followed Shanahan along the way since Washington in 2013 and was the running game coordinator the past four years for the Niners. Quarterback issues as well as injuries at wide receiver and tight end last year are mostly responsible for the backfield seeing such a high share of the overall targets. Jerick McKinnon’s 46 looks led the team’s position. He left for KC and hasn’t been replaced with as capable of a receiver. This team is destined to fall out of the top 10 slots for 2021.
Aaron Jones returns to the Packers, and the system is the same. Jamaal Williams walked in free agency and takes 35 targets with him. While Jones will remain involved in the dump-off designs, the draft addition of WR Amari Rodgers and the promotion of A.J. Dillon as RB2 likely won’t keep this backfield in the top dozen or so teams for targeting backs.
Josh Jacobs‘ 45 targets represented 40 percent of this backfield’s 112 looks. There should be gains at receiver with Henry Ruggs III improving in Year 2, and running back Kenyan Drake comes along to help complement Jacobs, including in the passing plans. Great for real football … not so much for fantasy.

Least targeted

Rk	Team	RB Targ	Targ %
1	Pittsburgh Steelers*	81	12.4
2	Tennessee Titans**	58	12.4
3	Los Angeles Rams*	71	12.6
4	Buffalo Bills	77	13.5
5	Denver Broncos	72	13.5
6	Chicago Bears	88	14.8
7	Baltimore Ravens	62	15.8
8	New York Jets*	75	16.2
9	New York Giants	83	16.6
10	Cleveland Browns	79	17.0

The team with the fewest RB looks in relation to overall targets was Pittsburgh, and a fair amount has changed. James Conner is out, and rookie Najee Harris is in as the primary ball carrier. Matt Canada takes over as the OC, although the system really shouldn’t change too much. With a talented stable of pass-grabbing weapons, don’t expect serious gains for fantasy purposes, despite a collegiate link between Canada and running back Anthony McFarland Jr.
Similarly, a new coordinator in Tennessee won’t make much of a difference in how plays are called. WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will gobble up a ton of a looks, and there should be a relatively smooth transition from tight end Jonnu Smith to Anthony Firkser. Unless something unexpected occurs and second-year back Darrynton Evans surprises, there’s nothing to see here for PPR leagues.
The Giants drastically upgraded at wide receiver and tight end. Saquon Barkley‘s knee is still going through the rehab phase, and he could be limited in 2021’s first month or so if the coaching staff is nervous about throwing him right into the fire. There may be a small window for Devontae Booker to carve out a notable third-down role, yet he remains undraftable.
Chicago added Damien Williams, a capable receiver in his own right, and Tarik Cohen is coming back from knee reconstruction. In addition, a possible move from Andy Dalton to a rookie quarterback makes this situation shaky, at best, for finding reliable value in fantasy football drafts.
Cleveland could go either way. The tight end position is loaded with underperforming talent, and Odell Beckham Jr. returns from a torn ACL. Rashard Higgins comes back as the third wideout, but the system is what mostly will limit Kareem Hunt from seeing an overwhelming volume after garnering a modest 51 looks in 2020.

Best value buys

The combination of necessity, system design, and personnel talent almost exclusively control what manufactures a running back-heavy share of receiving work. The following running backs should help owners up their PPR game.

Washington’s J.D. McKissic will see a slight drop in involvement with Curtis Samuel joining the short-area passing game, though the third-down back remains a strong RB3 in PPR scoring and can be had on the cheap after his stellar campaign.
Indy gets Marlon Mack (Achilles) back this year, but he isn’t a factor in the passing game. The offensive system shouldn’t change much under Marcus Brady after 2020 OC Nick Sirianni became Philadelphia’s head coach. Pass-catching back Nyheim Hines may take a minor hit if WR Michael Pittman Jr. steps up in Year 2 and Parris Campbell finally lives up to his potential. Hines’ safe projected outlook is around 50-55 catches, and a 12th-round ADP makes for a respectable value.
Leonard Fournette saw 47 targets in 2020, leading the backfield and helping the group sneak into the top 10. Also helping: Chris Godwin fighting injuries, Antonio Brown missing the first eight games, Tom Brady still learning the offense midway through the year, and Rob Gronkowski needing time to shake off the rust. Former Cincy back Giovani Bernard joins the team this year, likely robbing Fournette of significant worth. Bernard’s 18th-round ADP makes for a worthwhile stab, but the ceiling is extremely low. He’s much better suited for best-ball formats.
Detroit will almost certainly vault into the top 10 for share of targets sent toward the backfield. Jamaal Williams comes over from Green Bay to complement D’Andre Swift. Aside from tight end T.J. Hockenson, this is among the weakest corps of pass-catching options in the league right now, which greatly improves the odds of Swift and Williams seeing consistent looks. The former is a borderline first-rounder, so target Williams if you are desperate for cheap receptions later on.
A parallel can be found in the Atlanta backfield. Mike Davis comes over from the Panthers and has a clear path to being one of the most targeted players at his position in 2021. Rookie Javian Hawkins could be one of the slyest draft selections for PPR gamers. He reminds of a Darren Sproles-type running back, and the loss of Julio via trade will clear the way for a serious number of targets to be available.
Presuming Christian McCaffrey remains healthy, he should be among the top few backs in the league for targets. The aforementioned Davis saw 70 looks last year with CMC battling multiple injuries, and the loss of Samuel will open more targets from Sam Darnold. McCaffrey obviously isn’t a value at ADP No. 1 overall. Look to spend a late-round pick on rookie Chuba Hubbard, who could emerge as a spell on third downs and also offers RB1 touches if McCaffrey gets hurt again.

Honorable mentions

Arizona’s Chase Edmonds won’t be a fantasy monster, largely due to a potentially lethal receiving corps and the addition of Conner, but his value will be enhanced in PPR.
Philly’s Boston Scott was a strong contributor down the stretch in 2019, showing potential for “what could be” prior to a lackluster 2020 season. Scott now has Sirianni and OC Shane Steichen on his side — both adept at involving RBs in the play designs. With so many running backs in this stable, it’s a risky bet but not one to immediate write off.
Todd Gurley remains homeless, but a potential suitor could sign him to be a third-down back as a method to avoid the wear and tear on his balky knee. Keep tabs on his situation.

Packers will miss Jamaal Williams’ reliability in pass protection

The former Packers RB took his pass-protecting talents to Detroit.

It won’t be easy for the Green Bay Packers to replace former running back Jamaal Williams. Not just his presence in the locker room or his incredible dance choreography. What this team will miss most about Williams is his ability as a pass blocker.

This past free agency period, the Packers didn’t sign Williams to another contract. Mainly so they could afford Aaron Jones, who has been ahead of Williams on the depth chart for the last three years. That is not so much of a knock against Williams as it that Jones has really come into his own over the last few seasons.

By choosing Jones, Williams was free to sign wherever he wanted, and he chose not to travel far. Williams will remain in the NFC North as a member of the Detroit Lions after signing a two-year contract. Whenever Green Bay tries to send pressure at Jared Goff, or whoever is playing quarterback for the Lions in 2021, it will be more difficult if Williams is helping out in pass protection.

Williams really excelled as a blocker during his four years with the Packers. It was obviously something he took the time to master, as he was noticeably the best blocking running back on the roster. Williams may have been average or above average at a lot of things, but when it came to protecting Aaron Rodgers, he was exceptional.

During his first three seasons, Williams’ pass-blocking grade never fell below 76.0, according to Pro Football Focus. In 2021, Williams received the lowest pass-blocking grade of his career at 61.0. He totaled 59 snaps in pass protection, allowing one sack and four pressures. It was only the third sack Williams allowed through a total of 254 reps as a pass blocker.

While the fans will miss Williams’ dancing and charm, most of all, Green Bay will miss his ability and eagerness to block.

Any running back with hopes to get on the field and play in the Packers’ offense must be able to block in some capacity. If you are unable or reluctant, it could easily lead to your demise.

Luckily, Green Bay may have the answer for replacing Williams already on the roster, and his name is A.J. Dillon. The renowned power back was a second-round draft pick a year ago and played 97 total snaps on offense while sitting behind and learning from Jones and Williams.

However, now that Williams is out of the picture, Dillon can expect his role to grow. One way for Dillon to get more playing time is to undertake Williams’ place as the best pass-blocking running back on the team. Jones will likely remain the starter, but Dillon has a noticeable size and strength advantage he can utilize in pass protection.

Just pop in his tape, and you will see Dillon is a bruiser who would much rather run through you than around you. That type of mindset is well-suited for pass blocking, which Dillon already showed he can do a little bit as a rookie. Dillon played six snaps as a pass blocker in 2020 and received a grade of 63.3, per PFF. Obviously, that is a very small sample size, but Dillon has the body type and frame of mind to do it more and hopefully become pretty good at it.

Next year, Green Bay may try to put Dillon’s 6-0, 247-pound frame to use not only as the thunder to Jones’ lightning but as some much-needed insurance in pass protection with Williams no longer on the roster.

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