Giants Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Francisco Giants (11-14) open a 2-game series against the San Diego Padres (13-14) Saturday at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City, Mexico. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting. The Padres recorded a 13-6 record against the Giants in 2022.

The Giants lost 6-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday. San Francisco had won 5 consecutive games before the loss.

The Padres fell 5-2 to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. San Diego has tallied a 5-5 record in its last 10 games.

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Giants vs. Padres projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Manaea (0-1, 6.61 ERA) makes his 4th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 16 1/3 IP.

Has notched 6 IP or more in only 1 of his 5 appearances (3 starts) this season
Allowed at least 1 home run in 4 of his 5 outings

Musgrove (1-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 5 IP.

Allowed 3 ER on 7 H with 0 BB and 6 K across 5 IP in season debut victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks last Saturday
Boasts a 4-3 record with a 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9 in 12 career starts against the Giants

Giants vs. Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Giants +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 15.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Giants vs. Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Giants 5

Moneyline

PASS.

Even with the Padres (-185) expected to secure the win on Saturday, taking them straight up isn’t advised at the current odds.

Run line/Against the spread

PADRES -1.5 (-110) is the pick in this NL West matchup in Mexico City. The Padres have the pitching advantage with Musgrove on the mound and Manaea on a short leash from the Giants to begin the season.

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Over/Under

UNDER 15.5 (-110) is how I’d wager on the total with it being such a high number. The elevation in Mexico City could lead to more runs in this showdown, but neither team has been hitting well enough to feel confident in 16-plus runs being scored.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (80-80) and San Diego Padres (88-72) play the second game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 12-5

The Giants lost for just the 3rd time in their last 14 games after dropping a 7-4 decision in the series opener Monday.

San Francisco RHP Shelby Miller recorded the loss in a relief appearance, allowing 5 ER on 2 H with 1 K through 1 1/3 IP. San Diego starter RHP Joe Musgrove threw 6 scoreless innings and LF Wil Myers hit a 3-run HR to cap off a 7-run 8th inning.

The Padres remain 1 game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the 2nd spot in the NL wild-card standings. Philadelphia holds the season-series tiebreaker, in case the Phillies and Padres finish with the same record.

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Giants at Padres projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Rodón (14-8, 2.88 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 through 178 IP.

Last start: Win Thursday vs. the Colorado Rockies with 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 10 K
Highest K/9 in MLB
2022 vs. the Padres: 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA (19 IP, 8 ER) in 3 starts

Manaea (7-9, 5.15 ERA) makes his 28th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 152 IP.

Last appearance: No-decision Thursday vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers with 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 3 K
Last start: No-decision Sept. 23 at the Rockies with 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 2 K
Has lost 4 of his last 5 decisions
2022 vs. the Giants: 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA (17 IP, 9 ER) in 3 starts

Giants at Padres odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Giants 2

Moneyline

BET PADRES (-155).

San Diego is still playing for seeding in the NL wild-card standings. The Padres’ offense got back on track Monday putting up 7 runs in 1 inning and should lead San Diego to another win Tuesday. Manaea has also been solid for San Diego in his last 3 appearances, allowing a combined 6 ER through 12 2/3 IP.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+135).

Four of the Padres’ last 5 wins have been by multiple runs. Despite how good Rodón has been this season, San Diego hasn’t seemed to struggle vs. the lefty and should be able to win convincingly Tuesday.

Over/Under

PASS.

The Padres’ offense looked dangerous in the 8th inning Monday, but Rodón is still one of the best strikeout pitchers in MLB. There is too much conflicting data in this matchup to confidently bet the total either way.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (53-55) head down the coast to start a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres (61-50). First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco is 5-5 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games and swept a 2-game interleague series with the Bay Area neighbor Oakland Athletics Saturday-Sunday after losing 4 straight at home to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

San Diego is also 5-5 SU over its last 10 but has lost 4 consecutive outings, which includes being swept in a 3-game series at the Dodgers this past weekend.

Season series: The Padres lead 6-4 but the Giants have a plus-9 run differential in those meetings (45-36).

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Giants at Padres projected starters

LHP Alex Wood vs. LHP Blake Snell

Wood is 7-9 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 106 IP over 21 starts.

Last start: Loss, 9-5, at home vs. the Dodgers Tuesday with 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
2022 vs. the Padres: 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 18 K in 3 starts.

Snell is 4-5 with a 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 67 IP across 13 starts.

Last start: Win, 9-1, at home vs. the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
2022 vs. the Giants: 1 start — a 6-3 home win July 8 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 11 K.

Giants at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Giants +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 1

Money line

LEAN towards “flat-betting” or parlaying the PADRES (-190) with another similarly priced favorite for a better payout.

San Diego’s ML price is a little expensive and we are getting the worst of the number. The Padres opened as -161 ML favorites per Pregame.com but have been steamed up by sharp action to the current number.

However, Snell’s stuff is much nastier than Wood’s and Snell has been finding his groove lately. He has won 3 straight starts, allowing just 2 earned runs over 17 innings during that span with a 21/3 K/BB rate. Also, Snell dominated the Giants when they last met in July.

San Diego’s RL is my favorite look in this game but the PADRES (-190) is the right side.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+110) because Snell has been shutting down opposing lineups and the Giants are 3-5 RL as road underdogs vs. left-handed starters and 13-28 RL vs. NL West foes.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-115).

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market because more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

It’s wiser to follow the money in these situations since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than your average Joe. Also, the UNDER 7.5 (-115) being pricier insinuates it’s the sharper side.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (49-37) host the San Francisco Giants (42-41) Sunday for their 4-game series finale at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego has won 2 of the first 3 meetings. However, the Giants beat the Padres, 3-1, Saturday thanks to a complete-game, 12-strikeout gem thrown by San Francisco SP Carlos Rodon.

Season series: San Diego leads 6-3, and the Padres have a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.

Giants at Padres projected starters

LHP Alex Wood vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

Wood is 5-7 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 78 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: No-decision in San Francisco’s 6-2 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Padres: 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Gore is 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 65 IP across 12 starts and 1 bullpen outing.

Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-2 win Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
2022 vs. the Giants: One start — a 10-1 win May 22 in San Francisco — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K.

Giants at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Giants +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Giants at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Giants 3

Money line

BET PADRES (-125) because they are better vs. left-handed pitching, and San Diego’s bullpen is stronger than San Francisco’s.

The Padres are 20-10 vs. lefty starters while the Giants are 15-10 against lefties. San Diego’s lineup ranks ahead of San Francisco’s vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (104-103), wOBA (.313-.312), K/BB rate (0.45-0.38) and hard-hit rate (28.9-27.2%), per FanGraphs, and runs per 9 (4.82-4.76).

Also, San Diego’s bullpen is 7th in xFIP (3.66), 4th in K/BB rate (3.22) and 5th in WHIP (1.13), per FanGraphs. Whereas San Francisco’s bullpen has a 4.14 xFIP (ranked 22nd), a 2.41 K/BB rate (21st) and a 1.36 WHIP (26th).

That said, I’d only BET a half-unit on the PADRES (-125) since there’s sketchy reverse line movement in the betting market. Most of the action is on San Diego, but the line is moving towards San Francisco, according to Pregame.com. I’m nervous that the oddsmakers are laying a trap.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’m not confident enough to “sprinkle” on the RL regardless of how chunky it is because San Diego has flipped to RL underdogs with the Giants moving to RL favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105).

There’s a “line freeze” in the betting market for the total since a vast majority of the action is on the Over 7.5 (-130), per Pregame.com, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener. It’s suspicious whenever the oddsmakers don’t adjust the line according to the market movement.

Also, the Giants are 7-9-1 O/U as road underdogs. The Padres are 15-19-1 O/U as home favorites and 12-20 O/U vs. NL West foes.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (41-41) and the San Diego Padres (49-36) play the third contest of a 4-game set at Petco Park in San Diego. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead series 6-2

The Giants are looking to at least gain a split in this 4-game set after losing the first 2 games. San Francisco has been outscored 8-4 in the first 2 games.

The Padres have won 2 in a row, bouncing back after a 1-8 skid in the previous 9 outings. San Diego enters play 20-8 in the past 28 against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Giants vs. Padres projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Rodon (7-5, 2.87 ERA) makes his 17th start of the season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 91 IP.

Is 3-4 with a 3.46 ERA with a .215 opponent batting average in 52 IP across 9 road starts.
Allowed 2 ER, 5 H and 4 BB with 6 K across 6 IP in a loss against the Padres May 21 in San Francisco.

Darvish (7-4, 3.53 ERA) makes his 16th start of the season. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 94 1/3 IP.

Is 4-1 with a sparkling 1.75 ERA across 46 1/3 IP in 7 home starts with 45 K and a .163 opponent batting average.
Was tagged for a season-high 9 ER and 8 H in a season-low 1 2/3 IP in a loss at San Francisco April 12.

Giants vs. Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Giants vs. Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Giants 5, Padres 3

Money line

The GIANTS (-110) are the play based on how they handled Darvish in the first outing. The veteran right-hander just didn’t stick around very long, and he barely broke a sweat before getting knocked out of the game. San Francisco is still a risky play, as it is just 1-8 in the past 9 games overall, and 0-4 in the past 4 vs. teams with a winning overall record.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-205) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return if you’re looking for a little insurance. It’s just not worth it.

PASS.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-122) is the play, as that’s an awfully low total.

The Over is 5-2 in the 7 games for the Giants, while going 5-1 in the past 6 following a loss.

For the Padres, while the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 against winning teams, the Over is 4-1 in the past 5 at Petco, and 4-0-1 in the past 5 at home vs. LHP.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (76-75) host the San Francisco Giants (99-53) Thursday for the finale of their three-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco is attempting a series sweep after winning the first two games by a combined score of 14-11.

Season series: Giants lead 9-6.

RHP Logan Webb is San Francisco’s projected starter. Webb is 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 23 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 6-5 win Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
Webb lost 3-2 to San Diego April 30 in his only start against them with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
vs. Padres on the current roster (52 PA): 3.79 FIP with a .340 batting average (BA), .386 wOBA, .356 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Yu Darvish makes his 29th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with 4.13 ERA (157 IP, 72 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9.

Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K in San Diego’s 3-2 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday.
Darvish is 1-1 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 22 K.
vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 5.88 FIP with a .231 BA, .342 wOBA, .498 xSLG, 26.4 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.

Money line: Giants -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Padres -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the GIANTS (-117) for 1 unit because there’s most likely a fallacy in the market that the Padres will prevent an embarrassing four-game sweep against a division rival with San Diego’s No. 1 starter on the hill. Otherwise, I cannot explain why Giants-Padres is priced as a coin-flip Thursday.

Whether San Francisco is evolved into a much better team or San Diego has waived the white flag on the season, there’s a lot more value in backing the Giants here.

San Diego’s bullpen has nearly double the ERA than San Francisco’s bullpen in September, the Giants’ hitters are top three in several advanced hitting metrics this month and Webb is one of the highest-graded starters in the majors.

Furthermore, San Francisco’s money line is both a sharp and public play. More than two-thirds of cash is wagered and nearly 80% of the bets placed are on the Giants, according to pregame.com at the time of writing. This one-way action has steamed San Francisco up from a slight underdog to a slight favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – because the math supports taking a stab at San Francisco’s run line. The Giants are 17-21 ATS as a road favorite (44.7% cover rate) but the implied win probability of 41.7% based on their run line price.

Also, we are getting the same market movement here as the money line market. Oddsmakers have reacted to the pro-Giants money by moving them up from a run line underdog to a favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer San Francisco’s money line than the total in this spot.

However, San Diego is 18-10 O/U when Darvish gets the start, the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 11 Giants-Padres meetings and San Diego’s pitching staff has the second-worst ERA this month.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (97-53) travel down the coast to start a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (76-73) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 7-6.

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 31st start for the Giants. Gausman is 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA (175 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K Thursday vs. the Padres.
Gausman is 2-1 in four starts against San Diego this year with a 2.64 ERA (24 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB.
Road splits: 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in 17 starts.

RHP Joe Musgrove is projected to get the nod for the Padres. Musgrove is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 28 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: Win, 9-6, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K Wednesday at the Giants.
Musgrove is 1-2 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 6.75 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 17 H, 5 BB and 17 K.
Home splits: 6-4 with a 2.42 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB in 14 starts.

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:57 p.m. ET.

Money line: Giants -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-112) for a tiny unit – if at all – because the Padres’ playoff hopes hang in the balance and Musgrove has been awesome at home this season. However, the Under is my favorite play in this game.

Outside of San Diego’s obvious motivation angle, which is accounted for in the oddsmakers’ pricing, there aren’t many reasons to back the Padres.

The Giants have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and also are motivated to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in their NL West divisional race.

San Diego is just 10-25 overall as an underdog and 3-7 as a home underdog while San Francisco is 24-13 overall as a road favorite.

There has to be value in the GIANTS (-112) at a near coin-flip price since they have the best record in baseball and their ace on the hill Tuesday. It seems that the market is undervaluing San Francisco and overrating San Diego, even in September.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I only “lean” to San Francisco’s money line and don’t like this spot enough to lay it with the Giants -1.5 (+145). On top of that, San Francisco is just 16-21 ATS as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because the Giants are 13-22-2 O/U as road favorites, the Padres are 1-7-2 O/U as home underdogs and San Diego’s lineup has been atrocious this month.

The Padres hitters have the third-lowest WAR and rank 27th in both wOBA and wRC+ in September.

This total is suspiciously low considering how poorly both bullpens have been this month and the Over cashing in eight of the last nine Giants-Padres meetings. Maybe I’m overthinking it but I’m expecting a majority of the market to be on the Over by the time this game starts.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (16-11) and San Diego Padres (16-12) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at Petco Park with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kevin Gausman is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. He is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 33 2/3 IP through five starts.

Gausman allowed just 1 earned run on 2 hits and 1 walk with 11 strikeouts over a season-high 8 innings last Saturday in a no-decision against the Miami Marlins. He also allowed just 1 run on 5 hits and 1 walk through 7 innings in a no-decision April 7 in San Diego.

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 2-2 with a 1.24 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 over 29 IP spanning 5 starts.

Musgrove allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits with 2 walks over 3 innings of a no-decision last time out at Dodger Stadium last Sunday.

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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Off the board (OTB)
Against the spread/ATS: OTB
Over/Under: OTB

Prediction

Padres 6, Giants 3

Money line (ML)

While the odds were off the board at the time of publishing, the Padres are looking to complete the sweep, and they’re a good bet to do so.

San Diego has rattled off three consecutive wins, with an average of 7.0 runs per game while allowing just 2.33 runs per outing. The Giants offense dried up in the first two contests of this series.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Padres are worth a small-unit play to win by 2-plus runs with Musgrove on the bump.

The Giants lost three of their last four games, and three of their last four losses were by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over will be the lean, as it is 4-1 in San Francisco’s past five outings and 2-2-1 in Gausman’s five starts to date.

The Over is 6-2 across the past eight games for San Diego, too. While the Under is 4-1 in Musgrove’s five starts overall, the Over hit in his most recent showing.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (16-10) clash with the San Diego Padres (15-12) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres overcame the Giants in a 3-2 win Friday, as RHP Yu Darvish pitched a 6 1/3-inning, 12-strikeout and 1-ER gem.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani makes his sixth start for the Giants Saturday. He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA (30 IP, 5 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9.

Last outing: Complete-game shutout win with 3 H, 1 BB, and 9 K in the Giants’ 12-0 victory over the Colorado Rockies Monday.
Career vs. the Padres: 1-0 with a 2.17 ERA (29 IP, 7 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 in 5 starts.
DeSclafani pitched to a no-decision at San Diego April 5, throwing 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K in San Francisco’s 3-2 win.
- Career at Petco Park: 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA (17 IP, 3 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 3 starts.

LHP Blake Snell takes the mound for the Padres. He is 0-0 with a 3.92 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 over 5 starts.

Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K in San Diego’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers last Saturday.
Career vs. Giants: 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 14.4 K/9 in 1 start (April 7, 2021).

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Money line: Giants +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 1

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres (-185) because I’m confident enough in Snell to entertain putting San Diego’s money line in a parlay with a similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

For a straight-up Padres victory, however, the money line bet is a no-go.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

May has been DeSclafani’s least effective month throughout his career. He has a 5.47 ERA and 1.52 WHIP—both the highest of any month—and his 7.0 K/9 is his lowest of any month.

Additionally, DeSclafani is getting the start on four days of rest and his numbers on a four-day rest stack up similarly to his May production. His ERA and WHIP are higher than when he gets five or six-plus days off and his winning percentage is the lowest of the rest splits.

Furthermore, Snell had a so-so outing in his first career start against the Giants in early April, but San Francisco’s lineup will be easier for Snell to navigate this time around. The Giants are without their second and third hitters in RF Mike Yastrzemski and 2B Donovan Solano.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+110) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Even though I’m anticipating/betting on DeSclafani’s regression back to his usual form as the season moves along, he did have a strong outing against the Padres earlier this season and has always pitched well in Petco Park.

Also, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Giants-Padres meetings and 13-3 in San Diego’s last 16 home games.

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a quarter unit if at all because I prefer the Padres’ side more than the total.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (2-3) and San Diego Padres (4-2) close out a three-game series with a Wednesday matinee at Petco Park. First pitch will be at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kevin Gausman is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants. Last year, the veteran hurler went 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 12 appearances. Gausman allowed just four base runners in 6 2/3 IP in his 2021 debut vs. Seattle.

LHP Blake Snell takes the pill for the Padres. In 2020 with Tampa Bay, Snell went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 50 IP over 11 starts. The 28-year-old went 4 2/3 scoreless frames in his Padres debut (April 2 vs. Arizona). Snell walked two and punched out eight.

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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Giants +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 3

Money line (ML)

Peg Kevin Gausman as a bounce-back candidate after his fine season debut against the Mariners. Gausman has a history as a slow starter (.770 OPS allowed in March/April appearances).

The Padres are without SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. (shoulder), and that may be impacting San Diego fade bettors a bit too much. A year ago, the Friars went 8-2 against the Giants, and overall San Diego was a robust 21-11 on its home turf.

TAKE SAN DIEGO -160.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Padres went 8-2 against the Giants last season and outscored San Francisco 59-35. San Diego won more than one-third of its games by 5-plus runs in 2020.

CONSIDER PADRES -1.5 (+125) AS A SMALLER-UNIT PLAY IN WEDNESDAY’S MATINEE GET-AWAY GAME.

Over/Under (O/U)

The NL West foes have split two low-scoring games so far in the series. The best arms in the bullpens are a bit less available for this one. Peg the rubber match as a line watch: consider the evenly priced OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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