Carolina is still a very long shot in the division.
The Carolina Panthers improved their roster Wednesday by reportedly trading for Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. He’ll be an upgrade over the incumbent Sam Darnold, who has demonstrated himself to be the worst of the two 2018 first-rounders.
What Mayfield won’t do, however, is make this roster a Super Bowl contender. On a much superior Browns team the last few years, with more and better weapons, he had exactly one winning season and one playoff win. That renders Carolina’s very long +10000 Super Bowl odds on Tipico Sportsbook and +4000 NFC odds unworthy of your consideration.
What does become interesting for bettors, however, is Carolina’s odds in the NFC South. And before you call me crazy, no, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t stop existing. As long the Bucs are completely healthy, they’re still my pick to win the division. But the funny thing about health is it can wane with age, and the Bucs have the oldest player in the NFL playing the most important position.
So, let’s take a look at those division odds:
NFC South winner
- Buccaneers -340
- Saints +380
- Panthers +1200
- Falcons +2000
[tipico]
As you can see, the Panthers were and remain complete long-shots, as they should be. But they hold fantastic value if we’re to believe a soon-to-be 45-year-old is their biggest roadblock. This isn’t predicting Tom Brady will get injured or hit a cliff that’s been projected on him for years. But if it does happen, a trade for Mayfield greatly improves Carolina’s chances to capitalize.
He’ll be motivated to prove he belongs with the rejection of his previous team fresh in mind. He’ll be driven by another quarterback on the roster who believes he should be starting. And it’s a contract year. Mayfield may not prove to be Carolina’s ultimate answer at quarterback, but he could turn out to be a decent stop-gap.
As full rosters go, I still like what New Orleans has over the Panthers, especially on defense. But Mayfield immediately enters the conversation for second-best quarterback in the division, which has to count for something. If the Saints don’t get better production at the position, it won’t matter how good their defense is.
So, even if you’re bearish on Carolina’s odds to dethrone Tampa, the team’s +350 odds on Tipico to finish second to the Bucs could also be worth a flier. A lot would have to go right (or wrong) for either to happen, but it’s not like Brady didn’t just retire or anything. He’s obviously closer to the end than not.
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