Draft season—both in the NBA and NFL—remains a perplexing time for sportsbooks. Information flows in so many directions. Fans can find out news before the house can and whispers are sometimes meant to be overheard.
There isn’t an odds-making algorithm for smokescreens which is why its common to see sportsbooks take a loss on these events. Some states with legal sports betting, like New York, don’t even allow wagers on the draft because it’s not an actual sporting event.
The last 48 hours of NBA news speaks to that line of thinking, and it all has to do with Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren—the presumptive top three picks on Thursday.
Smith and Banchero, in particular, have seen wild fluctuations in their draft odds. We’ll get into the potential reasons for this in a moment. What you need to know first is that bettors everywhere are trying to gain even more of an edge than they already have.
Even after ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are expected to be selected in that order, sportsbooks like FanDuel continue to see significant movement in odds for those players that would otherwise suggest Woj’s report isn’t rock solid (which seems like a bold strategy).
As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022