FPI – Page 18 – Syndication Server

Michigan football favored in two remaining games in ESPN FPI

Though the Wolverines keep backsliding, there are two games on the schedule that Michigan football is still expected to win.

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Michigan football is in dire straits after yet another loss, this time to the hands of Wisconsin.

Unlike MSU and Indiana, where Michigan was a preseason favorite in the matchup, the Badgers were always expected to beat the Wolverines, but given the 49-11 loss, it feels like a full debacle in Ann Arbor.

Up next, the maize and blue are favored again, this time with a Saturday night contest against Rutgers on the way. The Scarlet Knights look improved, but the Wolverines continue to be the odds-on winner. Between that and Maryland, those are the only two remaining games on the schedule that ESPN FPI has Michigan winning. That includes the reeling Penn State Nittany Lions, a team that’s currently winless, a game in which the Wolverines chances have actually decreased, despite PSU being 0-4 at this juncture.

So here’s what ESPN FPI sees as the likelihood of Michigan football winning the rest of its games.

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Michigan win probability up in two remaining games per ESPN FPI

Where the advanced analytics predict the Wolverines to be after each game of the remaining schedule.

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So far, ESPN FPI has been mostly right about Michigan football.

It predicted a Michigan win in the preseason against Minnesota and before the Indiana game last week, it said the Hoosiers were the favorites. But the loss to rival Michigan State still remains inexplicable, both via the preseason prediction as well as the week of the game.

So how does the schedule play out from here?

The advanced analytics say that Michigan has the toughest remaining schedule, and ESPN hasn’t revised any of the remaining won/loss predictions. However, the Wolverines did increase their probability in two of the five remaining games, including one unlikely contest — you know the one — at the end of the schedule.

With Wisconsin on deck, here’s how the ESPN FPI predicts the rest of the Wolverines season to play out.

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Texas Longhorns have second-best chance to win Big 12 per FPI

According to the computers the Texas Longhorns have the second-best odds to win the Big 12 Conference. So who is their competition?

We are down to four games left in the Texas Longhorns 2020 campaign. Continue reading “Texas Longhorns have second-best chance to win Big 12 per FPI”

Miami Dolphins steadily climbing up 2020 season forecasts

The Miami Dolphins are 1-2 and there’s plenty of cause for optimism for the Dolphins has the team continues to find their identity as a football team. But how do the forecasts favor the Dolphins?

ESPN’s Football Power Index simulates each remaining game of the season 10,000 time to produce average win-loss totals for all 32 franchises. As of the start of Week 4 in the NFL season, the Dolphins are forecasted to finish the season with 6.2 wins. That figure is better than 10 other teams across the NFL and serves as a big improvement for Miami based on the early-season expectations for Miami.

Ahead of the season, Miami was generally regarded as a bottom-five roster in the NFL, but with the horrid play of the New York Jets and Miami’s impressive team win against Jacksonville, the Dolphins appear primed to outperform their early season predictions and rise out of the bottom few teams in the league.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the Dolphins also currently projected for 6 wins. But the big difference is the rest of the league. Miami is currently forecasted to own a better record than eight teams and tied with four others in the standings. In the preseason forecast for FiveThirtyEight, the Dolphins were projected to only be better than five teams across the league.

Of course, getting additional wins is going to be critical for the Dolphins’ cause on that front — and Week 4 is about as tough of a test and you’ll find. If the Dolphins could somehow pry a win away from the Seahawks in Week 4, they will be well on their way to earning added respect and continue to outproduce even the updated forecasts for the Dolphins’ season.

Florida Gators move up two spots in ESPN’s latest FPI rankings

Week 1 of Southeastern Conference football is officially in the books after a wild opening weekend for the prestigious league.

Week 1 of Southeastern Conference football is officially in the books after a wild opening weekend for the prestigious league which saw close games, high-scoring affairs and even an unexpected upset of last season’s national champions.

The Florida Gators fared rather well, though their defense left something to be desired in a 51-35 shootout with the Ole Miss Rebels. However, in the SEC a win is a win, and the Gators upped their record to 1-0 on the season while also raising their stock in some rankings.

ESPN released its latest College Football Power Index 2020 numbers on Sunday — which includes Big Ten teams — and UF got a little bit of a boost from its performance on Saturday, moving up two spots from No. 11 to No. 9. The move essentially leapfrogged Florida over the UCF Knights and the LSU Tigers, the latter of whom suffered an upset at the hands of the Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend and dropped six spots.

The SEC only has four teams in the top-10, with the Alabama Crimson Tide holding pat in second place, while the Georgia Bulldogs moved up one spot to No. 6 and the Auburn Tigers moved up two spots to No. 7. LSU now sits at No. 13 with the Texas A&M Aggies at No. 19 to wrap up conference schools in the top-25.

Here is the latest ESPN FPI top-25 with SEC teams in bold.

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Auburn
8. Texas
9. Florida
10. UCF
11. Notre Dame
12. Oklahoma
13. LSU
14. Virginia Tech
15. Michigan
16. BYU
17. Miami
18. Indiana
19. Texas A&M
20. Oklahoma State
21. North Carolina
22. Northwestern
23. TCU
24. Iowa
25. Minnesota

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Locked on Longhorns Podcast: ‘Victory Monday and Sam Ehlinger’

The Locked on Longhorns Podcast discusses the big win over UTEP on Saturday. Plus Texas’ latest FPI rankings and B.J. Foster.

The Locked on Longhorns Podcast returns for a victory Monday following a 59-3 victory over the UTEP Miners. Sam Ehlinger got off to a hot start in this one from the first play. He found Joshua Moore on a 78-yard catch and run to get the party started for the Texas offense. In his first game with Mike Yurcich calling the plays, Sam set career highs in yards and touchdowns in one half. How much better can Ehlinger be in 2020?

ESPN updated their FPI and win probabilities. How high is the ceiling for the Texas Longhorns in 2020? In a look around the Big 12, how did the four winning teams look? What is going on in Lubbock as the Red Raiders squeaked out a win. The Sun Belt was anything but a Fun Belt as they defeated three Big 12 teams on Saturday. How much did the losses hurt Iowa State and Kansas State?

An update on B.J. Foster prior to Tom Herman meeting with the media. The duo go through the Foster timeline from Saturday to Monday morning. Most of the Big 12 Conference will be on a bye week. Baylor and Oklahoma State will open their seasons after COVID-19 cases ruined their opportunity to start on time.

Monday Big 12 Morning Rush: Latest FPI favors Texas over Oklahoma

The latest Big 12 Conference headlines in the morning rush. ESPN, USA TODAY Sports and Twitter provide the headlines. UT over OU in FPI?

It is game week as we move closer to opening kickoff on Saturday. With the arrival of football season, there is no shortage of stories surrounding the Big 12 Conference. On Monday’s Big 12 morning rush we look at headlines from ESPN, USA TODAY Sports and Twitter.

Continue reading “Monday Big 12 Morning Rush: Latest FPI favors Texas over Oklahoma”

ESPN’s game by game FPI prediction for Alabama’s 2020 season

This time, we will focus on ESPN’s game by game FPI prediction for each game this season.

With just a few months away from the (hopeful) start of college football, there’s no better way to spend this time than to occupy our time with NFL mock drafts, schedule predictions, player spotlight, and, so on.

This time, we will focus on ESPN’s game by game FPI prediction for each game this season.

Week 1- Alabama vs. USC

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has an 80.7 percent chance to win

Week 2- Alabama vs. Georgia State

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 99.2 percent chance to win

Week 3- Alabama vs. Georgia

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 72.5 percent chance to win

Week 4- Alabama vs. Kent State

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 99.4 percent chance to win

Week 5- Alabama vs. Ole Miss

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 91.6 percent chance to win

Week 6- Alabama vs. Arkansas

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 95.3 percent chance to win

Week 7- Alabama vs. Mississippi State

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 97.7 percent chance to win

Week 8- Alabama vs. Tennessee

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 89.8 percent chance to win

Week 9- Alabama vs. LSU

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 57.6 percent chance to win

Week 10- Alabama vs. UT Martin

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 99.8 percent chance to win

Week 11- Alabama vs. Texas A&M

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 86.5 percent chance to win

Week 12- Alabama vs. Auburn

ESPN FPI Projection- Alabama has a 78.9 percent chance to win

According to the FPI, Alabama’s easiest game looks to be UT Martin, while the Crimson Tide’s hardest matchup looks to be LSU, both of which Alabama are predicted to win.

There’s no doubt that this season is going to be fun to watch. With this FPI prediction, ESPN has Alabama finishing the regular season 12-0, which would no doubt mean a trip back to the College Football Playoff.

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ESPN: Falcons have 31% chance of making the playoffs

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Falcons have a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2020, and a projected win total at 7.5.

The Falcons have done a lot to improve their roster for next season, but the NFC South looks to have improved quite a bit as well.

With the Saints returning as strong as ever, and the Buccaneers adding Tom Brady, many feel Atlanta will be on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin for the third year in a row.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Falcons have a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2020, and a projected win total at 7.5. This would leave the team in third place in the division.

ESPN’s FPI has New Orleans ranked first, with a 10.2 win projection and an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs. Second place is Tampa Bay (9.1 projected wins, 62.9 chance of making playoffs).

Unsurprisingly, Carolina comes in last, with 5.7 projected wins and a seven percent chance of making the playoffs. This may come as a relief to Atlanta after falling well short of expectations the previous two seasons.

The Falcons’ success or failure in 2020 could very likely come down to the final quarter of the season when they face the Buccaneers twice and visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins slim odds for postseason

The Miami Dolphins will enter the 2020 with aspirations of playing in the postseason — not necessarily an attainable goal in 2019 during the team’s drastic roster overhaul. Those aspirations serve as a sign of progress for this team, who didn’t find their first win of the season last year until Week 8 under Brian Flores after a slew of close calls in the first half of the season.

But how likely are Miami’s hopes of a January playoff game? Miami has plenty of new talent in place — but that talent will also come with a learning curve and the Dolphins being unable to work through organized team activities during this time of year threatens their progress and chemistry in the early portions of 2020.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is out for the 2020 NFL season and hopes to provide an answer to each team’s outlook for the year ahead. Things weren’t kind for the Miami Dolphins. Miami ranked as the 6th worst playoff odds among all NFL teams in the first update to FPI; the Dolphins were credited just a 13.8% chance to make the postseason. Furthermore, Miami’s projected record on the season is 6-10 — just a one game improvement from the team’s performance in 2019 with such an underwhelming amount of talent at the team’s disposal.

Would this be considered a failure? Not necessarily, as the Dolphins have plenty of room for improvement in individual areas of their team and the potential youth at quarterback (provided rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa earns the right to start) could cause for a rocky road and a few more bumps in the road. But a 6-10 finish would still sting a bit, especially with the feeling that the AFC East is a wide open proposition after years of dominance by the New England Patriots.

FPI seems to agree. Here are their rankings for the AFC East based on projected records:

Buffalo Bills: 8.6 — 7.4 (41.0% odds to win the AFC East)
New England Patriots: 8.6 — 7.4 (40.9% odds to win AFC East)
New York Jets: 6.8 — 9.2 (11.7% odds to win AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 6.2 — 9.8 (6.3% odds to win AFC East)