Tag: FPI

ESPN: Falcons have 31% chance of making the playoffs

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Falcons have a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2020, and a projected win total at 7.5.

The Falcons have done a lot to improve their roster for next season, but the NFC South looks to have improved quite a bit as well.

With the Saints returning as strong as ever, and the Buccaneers adding Tom Brady, many feel Atlanta will be on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin for the third year in a row.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Falcons have a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2020, and a projected win total at 7.5. This would leave the team in third place in the division.

ESPN’s FPI has New Orleans ranked first, with a 10.2 win projection and an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs. Second place is Tampa Bay (9.1 projected wins, 62.9 chance of making playoffs).

Unsurprisingly, Carolina comes in last, with 5.7 projected wins and a seven percent chance of making the playoffs. This may come as a relief to Atlanta after falling well short of expectations the previous two seasons.

The Falcons’ success or failure in 2020 could very likely come down to the final quarter of the season when they face the Buccaneers twice and visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins slim odds for postseason

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins slim odds for postseason

The Miami Dolphins will enter the 2020 with aspirations of playing in the postseason — not necessarily an attainable goal in 2019 during the team’s drastic roster overhaul. Those aspirations serve as a sign of progress for this team, who didn’t find their first win of the season last year until Week 8 under Brian Flores after a slew of close calls in the first half of the season.

But how likely are Miami’s hopes of a January playoff game? Miami has plenty of new talent in place — but that talent will also come with a learning curve and the Dolphins being unable to work through organized team activities during this time of year threatens their progress and chemistry in the early portions of 2020.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is out for the 2020 NFL season and hopes to provide an answer to each team’s outlook for the year ahead. Things weren’t kind for the Miami Dolphins. Miami ranked as the 6th worst playoff odds among all NFL teams in the first update to FPI; the Dolphins were credited just a 13.8% chance to make the postseason. Furthermore, Miami’s projected record on the season is 6-10 — just a one game improvement from the team’s performance in 2019 with such an underwhelming amount of talent at the team’s disposal.

Would this be considered a failure? Not necessarily, as the Dolphins have plenty of room for improvement in individual areas of their team and the potential youth at quarterback (provided rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa earns the right to start) could cause for a rocky road and a few more bumps in the road. But a 6-10 finish would still sting a bit, especially with the feeling that the AFC East is a wide open proposition after years of dominance by the New England Patriots.

FPI seems to agree. Here are their rankings for the AFC East based on projected records:

  • Buffalo Bills: 8.6 — 7.4 (41.0% odds to win the AFC East)
  • New England Patriots: 8.6 — 7.4 (40.9% odds to win AFC East)
  • New York Jets: 6.8 — 9.2 (11.7% odds to win AFC East)
  • Miami Dolphins: 6.2 — 9.8 (6.3% odds to win AFC East)

Latest ESPN FPI has Longhorns in the top 12

ESPN has released their preseason FPI rankings for the upcoming 2020 season, the Texas Longhorns come in the top 12.

Recently ESPN released their recent FPI (Football Power Index). For those unfamiliar with the FPI, here is the explanation on ESPN’s model.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

Following the Longhorns victory over the Utah Utes in the Valero Alamo Bowl ESPN released their postseason FPI. They listed Texas inside the top 20. Their FPI at that time was 13, just a few months down the road and now the Longhorns find themselves ranked 11th with a FPI of 19.6. That number is just 0.5 behind their bitter rivals, Oklahoma.

  • Oklahoma (10th) FPI-20.1
  • Oklahoma State  (17th) 13.7
  • TCU  (20th) 12.0
  • Iowa State (27th) 9.9
  • Kansas State (32nd) 8.2
  • Baylor (34th) 7.8
  • Texas Tech (41st) 6.3
  • West Virginia (45th) 5.2
  • Kansas (98th) -6.7

The Longhorns will also play the LSU Tigers this upcoming season who ranked 6th in the FPI poll at 23.7.

Texas has a projected win total of 9.5 according to their simulations. There are a multitude of reasons that their FPI would increase over a four month span which could include a whole new staff essentially and the influx of another top ten recruiting class in 2020. This seems to fall right in line where most media outlets have Texas projected when it comes to their way too early top 25 rankings.

FPI gives the Badgers a great chance to reach the 2020 College Football Playoff

ESPN’s Seth Walder published an article this morning which looked at the recent Football Power Index projections and summarized what…

ESPN’s Seth Walder published an article this morning which looked at the recent Football Power Index projections and summarized what they say about who is most likely to reach the 2020 College Football Playoff.

Not surprisingly the top-3 teams are Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State.

The fourth team in the ranking though? The Wisconsin Badgers.

That’s right. FPI thinks the Badgers have the fourth-highest shot to make the CFP ahead of teams including LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma and Penn State.

Specifically, FPI gives Wisconsin a 34 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 6 percent chance to make the National Championship Game.

What is the reason behind these rankings seeing the Badgers reverse their recent late-season fortunes and finally break through into the playoff?

The first is the return of quarterback Jack Coan, the nation’s No. 8-ranked passer in terms of QBR in 2019 and No. 7 in completion percentage.

The second is the return of the team’s entire secondary and defensive line production from a season ago. As outlined in the projection for coach Paul Chryst‘s 2020 defensive depth chart, the team is one of the most experienced and skilled in the nation on the defensive line and in the secondary. Furthermore, the linebacking core, led by junior Jack Sanborn, is one of the team’s strengths every season even when they lose 1-2 players a year at the position to the NFL.

Other factors playing into the ranking, as noted by Walder, include the Badgers avoiding having to play Ohio State during the regular season and an otherwise tough but manageable schedule, one which allows them to still be in the running for the CFP even if they were to have one loss after falling to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship.

National Championships aren’t usually in the preseason projection for the Wisconsin football team. This year though, with the experience at quarterback and on defense, the talent all over the field and a schedule that caters to a favorable national ranking, a College Football Playoff appearance will be in the sights for Chryst and his team.

Texas Longhorns Rank In Top 10 of ESPN’s Preseason FPI

ESPN has released their preseason FPI rankings for the upcoming 2020 season, the Texas Longhorns come in the top 10.

The preseason FPI rankings have been released for the 2020 college football season. The FPI (Football Power Index) is a way to measure the strength of a team with how they are projected to finish the season. The Longhorns come in ranked in the top 10.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The Longhorns come in ahead of the defending National Champions, LSU Tigers. Texas has revamped their staff in hopes of making a run at the Big 12 Championship in 2020. The Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners are the only Big 12 teams in the top 10.

FPI Top 10 Conference Breakdown:

  • ACC (1)
  • Big Ten (3)
  • Big 12 (2)
  • Independent (1)
  • SEC (3)

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins 68% chance of top-5 pick

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins 68% chance of top-5 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft with 3 games left to play.

The Miami Dolphins narrowly escaped a win in Week 14 against the New York Jets — a decision that would have provided the team with more momentum as the team looks to build towards 2020, but also an end result that would have cast the Dolphins deeper down the draft order for the 2020 NFL Draft.

Brian Flores has explicitly stated that he does not care about the NFL Draft order, but you can be rest assured that Dolphins management has been keeping a watchful eye on Miami’s positioning here. As things currently stand, Miami is slated to pick 4th in the order. A win over the Jets would have dropped Miami to 8th — with games against the terrible Giants and Bengals left to be played.

But there’s no winding the clock back on the referee’s decision to review and call defensive pass interference on Miami. And as a result, the decision is final.

With the order now locked with three weeks left to go, the Dolphins are currently projected to finish exactly where they stand now — with the 4th overall pick. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has listed the Dolphins as owning a 68.3% chance of finishing the season with a top-5 selection. FPI simulates every remaining contest 10,000 times, aggregating the results to formulate a projection of the most likely outcome.

In the Week 15 simulation, Miami’s average draft position is 4.2, the 4th highest in the league behind the Bengals, Giants and Redskins. With a little luck, Miami could find themselves as high as 2nd as a realistic outcome — but with wins over the Giants and Bengals could also see their first selection dip as low as 8th in the order when it is all said and done.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dolphins 17% chance at top pick

ESPN’s Football Power Index scores the Dolphins’ odds of finishing with the #1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft at 17.3%.

For the first half of the 2019 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins were the overwhelming favorites to land the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). FPI is designed to score teams based on metrics and statistics and then simulate the remaining unplayed games on the schedule 10,000 times in order to determine the likelihood of outcomes.

At one point, the Dolphins were given an 80% chance to finish with the league’s worst record, given how poorly they were showing on the field.

Those days have come and gone, unfortunately. The current snapshot of the league’s NFL Draft order favors the Cincinnati Bengals to finish with the top spot — they’re currently given a 63.7% chance to finish with the top pick. That number is the best in football, although the Dolphins are still second best on the list. Miami is given a 17.3% chance of coming home with the top pick.

But the Dolphins are running out of time. Yes, the team still has a head to head contest against the Cincinnati Bengals this season, but Miami trails the Bengals by two games. Cincinnati will have to win against someone not named the Dolphins if the Dolphins can bounce back into the top spot. The opportunities are slim. The Bengals play the playoff hopeful Browns twice — and things seem to be clicking well for Cleveland, look for the Browns to sweep those two contests. Adding in the Dolphins’ game, Cincinnati has just two other opportunities to hypothetically win a game. One of them is a home game against the New England Patriots (Week 15). Don’t hold your breath.

That leaves just one game. This week’s contest against the New York Jets. If Miami’s hope of the top spot are going to survive to Week 16, it’s looking like now or never for another Bengals win.

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Latest FPI projections from ESPN have Dolphins picking 4th in 2020

ESPN’s latest projection of the final standings courtesy of their Football Power Index forecasts Miami to hold the 4th pick in 2020 Draft.

The Miami Dolphins pulled off a stunner this past weekend in Indianapolis — aided by the Colts’ absence of starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett to an ACL injury. The win brought the Dolphins to 2-7 on the season and effectively ended the team’s hopes and dreams of landing the 1st-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Dolphins now trail the Cincinnati Bengals by two games in the race for the top spot and each team is trending in opposite directions — Miami is surging with confident play, while the Bengals just got stomped by the Ravens in an embarrassing defeat.

ESPN’s Football Power Index agrees: Miami’s odds of walking away with the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft are now pretty slim. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins were given 66% odds to land the first pick. Now? That number sits at 12%. The latest projection forecasts Miami to pick 4th: behind the winless Bengals, the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants.

No problem. Miami will have ample opportunity to do business with either Washington or New York to ensure they get a top quarterback prospect, should they feel it necessary to land “their guy”. And the deeper into the process things get, the more it seems LSU’s Joe Burrow is the emerging favorite to be the player who demands selection with the top pick this offseason.

Miami will have opportunities to win a few more games along the way: ESPN’s projection has the Dolphins finishing the season at 4-12 and even if the Dolphins went 5-11, Miami would fall no lower than 6th in the ESPN projections — losing ground to two more teams who already have young quarterbacks in the New York Jets (Sam Darnold) and Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray).

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