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These five players are on the rise after a strong preseason.
One of the dangers of holding your fantasy football draft too early is that player value can change dramatically during training camp and the preseason. While situations like injuries, free-agent signings, and surprise retirements can move the needle, this article will instead focus on five players that improved their stock by performing well in July and August.
The latest players on the upswing and downswing entering Week 17.
One certainty in the NFL is turnover. Typically, only about half of the division winners repeat, teams that had losing records the previous year become winners, and undervalued fantasy players from those teams become unexpected lineup staples.
Last year, 12 NFL teams won 10 or more games – six in each conference. Of those, only three (Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati) will repeat that feat. The other three (Tennessee, New England and Las Vegas) currently have losing records.
In the NFC, only two teams that had double-digit wins last season (San Francisco and Dallas) are going to repeat. The Green Bay Packers (13-4 in 2021) are 7-8 and on playoff life support. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4 in ’21) are 7-8 and only in the playoff hunt because the NFC South is so bad. The Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and Arizona Cardinals (11-6) have a combined record of 9-21 this year.
When you start your preparation for the 2023 fantasy draft, keep in mind which teams look to be on the upswing but not quite there yet – teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. Given the up-and-down nature of the NFL, they could be in for big things next year and will likely garner more credibility than they had coming into this season – which was almost none.
Here is the Week 17 Fantasy Football Market Report.
The most important risers and fallers heading into Week 15.
When it’s sweltering in July and August, natural complainers yip about the heat. I’m thinking about December and January. In July, you don’t even have a fantasy roster. In December and January, you’re horrified to learn your fast-track offense is playing in Buffalo in January and the weather outside is frightful.
What separates good fantasy owners from really good ones is they take into account holiday season weather in July. When I’m on the clock and I have two players I could go either way on, I will go with the player in the more climate-controlled conditions when it comes to fantasy playoff time.
It stuns me that this isn’t a metric fantasy football management. It’s one-and-done in the playoffs. Don’t wake up Sunday morning and see snowplows on a field and straight flags and be caught unaware. That’s how fantasy seasons die.
I say this because there is currently a “superstorm” making its way across the country. A lot of people will be impacted. By the time it gets to the East Coast, it’s going to be all rain. On Sunday. It could be a lot of rain and, more importantly, a lot of wind – the bane of NFL offenses.
Just sayin’.
Here is the Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Report.
The latest risers and fallers in the fantasy football landscape.
An issue that impacts fantasy rankings every year is the perception coming into a season as to the teams that are going to be playing for something late in the season when fantasy titles are up for grabs. What makes the NFL great is that, while there are some dynasty teams like Kansas City that are good every year, there are also teams that rise to take their place among the elite.
With six weeks left to play, only three defending division champions find themselves currently in first place (Kansas City, Tennessee and Tampa Bay at 5-6). Both Philadelphia (10-1) and Minnesota (9-2) have surpassed their 2021 win totals. San Francisco and Miami finished third in their divisions last season. Baltimore finished last in the AFC North in 2021.
The NFL is the best reality show on television for a reason – you never fully know what to expect when the season begins, because there are twists and turns that most of us don’t see coming. Players you drafted expecting them to dwell on the bench have become your bell cows because the NFL is cyclical.
Here is the Week 13 Fantasy Football Market Report.
Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 7.
We’re only six weeks into the 2022 season, and it’s already become bizarro world for quarterbacks.
Retreads Geno Smith and Marcus Mariota are getting a chance to replace franchise legends – and have the same win-loss record as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. P.J. Walker is the starter in Carolina after two former No. 1 overall picks fought it out in training camp prior to suffering injuries. Jacoby Brissett is holding down the fort in Cleveland.
Cooper Rush is 4-1 replacing Dak Prescott in Dallas. Miami has started three different quarterbacks the last three weeks and all three have been injured. Bailey Zappe is creating a QB controversy in New England. Mitch Trubisky won, lost and then regained his starting job in Pittsburgh. The Trey Lance era was derailed after five quarters.
At a time when franchise quarterbacks are at a premium for fantasy owners, a lot of teams are playing without them – and we’re only a third of the way through the season.
Here is the Week 7 Fantasy Football Market Report:
The most important risers and fallers in fantasy football.
One of the aspects of fantasy football that never fails to amaze me is when fantasy owners don’t take into account bye weeks. Week 5 will be the last time in a long time that every player on most rosters will be available.
Injuries do their part to gut fantasy rosters, so players who had no draft-day intention of being in the starting lineup are there more weeks than not. Bye weeks are a meaningless gutting – those guys are healthy, just not playing.
There will be eight weeks in which at least two and as many as six teams will be on bye. If you’re a seasoned fantasy player, you probably paid attention to the bye weeks as you were assembling a draft/auction roster, but a lot has happened since then.
A week from now it will dawn on some casual players that the bye weeks have started. You can be ahead of that curve and prepare for it now. If you see a week that will be rough, make a trade to diversify your roster. There will be someone in your league who effectively forfeits a week because too many key players are on their bye. Don’t let that be you.
Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Report:
A look at the most meaningful fantasy football streaks.
The fantasy football postseason is upon us in the majority of leagues, and team managers will be eager to keep riding — or seeking to avoid — the hottest hands.
So, with momentum in mind, we’re highlighting the currently active player performance streaks of note in this week’s TT&T and breaking down what they mean for the fantasy playoffs. Streak data, it must be mentioned, comes courtesy of the Stathead database maintained by the informative folks at ProFootballReference.com
Here goes, kicking off with …
6: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
4: Justin Herbert, Chargers
3: Aaron Rodgers, Packers; Matthew Stafford, Rams; Russell Wilson, Seahawks
2: Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers; Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers;
Quick takeaways:
4: Herbert, Chargers; Rodgers, Packers
3: Stafford, Rams
2: Brady, Buccaneers; Joe Burrow, Bengals; Garoppolo, 49ers
Quick takeaways:
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10: Jonathan Taylor, Colts
7: James Conner, Cardinals
6: Cam Newton, Panthers, Patriots
5: Austin Ekeler, Chargers; Alvin Kamara, Saints
4: Deebo Samuel, 49ers
3: Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers; Javonte Williams, Broncos
Quick takeaways:
47: Derrick Henry, Titans
10: Taylor, Colts
7: Dalvin Cook, Vikings; Myles Gaskin, Dolphins; Kamara, Saints
5: Fournette, Buccaneers
4: A.J. Dillon, Packers; Devonta Freeman, Ravens
Quick takeaways:
5: Cook, Vikings
2: Conner, Cardinals; Kamara, Saints; Najee Harris, Steelers
Quick takeaways:
3: Davante Adams, Packers; Tee Higgins, Bengals; Hunter Renfrow, Raiders
2: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers; George Kittle, 49ers; Cooper Kupp, Rams
Quick takeaways:
9: Cooper Kupp, Rams
4: Adams, Packers
3: Antonio Brown, Buccaneers; Renfrow, Raiders; Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins
2: Godwin, Buccaneers; Jefferson, Vikings; Kittle, 49ers; CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
Quick takeaways:
10: Taylor, Colts
9: Kupp, Rams
6: Keenan Allen, Chargers
5: Conner, Cardinals; Kamara, Saints
4: Ekeler, Chargers; Diontae Johnson, Steelers
Quick takeaways:
Making sense of recent fantasy football performances.
Week 9 was the crazy, unpredictable, off-the-rails week we see every NFL season.
Ten of 14 pointspread underdogs covered and four touchdown-plus favorites lost outright.
The fantasy realm certainly wasn’t spared from the wackiness:
Like we said, unforeseeable unruliness.
But which of the eye-catching (or eyesore) Week 9 fantasy performances are we buying as indicators for the rest of the season, and which are we brushing off as one-week abnormalities?
Let us delve deeper into five of the more notable fantasy performances from the wild and wacky Week 9 …
Mahomes somehow got outscored by his quarterback counterpart in the same game, and that was Green Bay Packers second-year QB Jordan Love, who completed only 19-of-34 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown for 15.8 fantasy points himself.
Over the last four seasons, Mahomes’ 12.1 fantasy points Sunday marked his regular-season, full-game low point and only the fifth time in 62 career complete games, including the postseason, in which he’s failed to total at least 15 points.
BUYING or brushing off: Stunningly, two of those five aforementioned sub-15-point outings have come in the last three weeks and were sandwiched around an 18.75-point game in Week 8.
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Mahomes has thrown for two TDs and two interceptions in those three games and has averaged fewer than 5.89 yards per attempt. His career average is 8.1 yards per attempt.
Mahomes, obviously hasn’t been connecting for nearly as many big plays, but even the rest of the Chiefs’ aerial game is off as he’s completed 60.4 percent or fewer of his passes in each of the last three weeks — again well below his 65.9 career completion percentage.
Even more alarming, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the toughest remaining fantasy QB schedule in the league, according to The Huddle’s nifty Strength of Schedule tool.
Add it all up, and we’ve come to the shocking conclusion that Mahomes is no longer a set-it-and-forget-it, locked-in QB1 every week, depending on the week and your other options.
It was a season-worst showing for the second-year Cincy QB, who posted only his second sub-20-point outing of the campaign.
Burrow entered the game on a serious fantasy roll, having thrown for three touchdowns and posted at least 24.85 fantasy points in three straight games. But even though the Bengals defense surrendered a season-high 41 points and the opposing Browns came into the contest allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Burrow couldn’t keep up. He failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in his last 12 games, dating back to last season, while tossing a pair of interceptions.
In eight previous games this season, Burrow had at thrown for at least two TDs.
Buying or BRUSHING OFF: The Browns, fresh off a division home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and dealing with the Odell Beckham Jr. distraction last week, clearly entered Sunday’s game as a team on a mission and played like it.
Burrow was sacked a season-high-matching five times and was hit 12 times while completing 28-of-40 pass attempts for 282 yards.
Go-to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was targeted a game-high 13 times, but they only netted six completions for 49 yards and his third touchdown-less outing of the season.
In reality, though, Burrow is going to endure some ups and downs. He’s a second-year QB, who’s made 19 total starts with last season’s knee injury, and even with Sunday’s poor showing, he remains fantasy’s 10th-best quarterback with an average of 23.2 points per game.
And pairing Burrow’s talent with that of his young supporting cast, there’s simply too much upside to be had with the second-year passer.
Conner has now played in 59 career games, but Sunday’s showing produced a career pinnacle in fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) as he topped 30 points for only the fifth time in five seasons.
To get there, it took 21 rushes for 96 yards and two TDs and five catches on five targets for 77 yards and another score to power the Cards’ 31-17 road upset win of the division-rival San Francisco 49ers. Starting QB Kyler Murray and leading wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green were all absent Sunday due to injury/illness while — more significantly for Conner — starting running back Chase Edmonds left after only one 3-yard carry with what was later diagnosed as a high-ankle sprain.
That left Conner to shoulder the backfield load and he wound up accounting for 26 of Arizona’s 36 running back touches. Conner entered the contest averaging 12.4 touches, 49 total yards and 11.5 fantasy points per game.
BUYING or brushing off: With his three TDs Sunday, Conner leapfrogged the injured and idle Derrick Henry and standout wideout Cooper Kupp for the league touchdown lead with 11.
On Monday, word then came down that Edmonds would miss multiple games — likely to include an injured reserve stint — with his high-ankle sprain. Prior to Sunday’s one-carry game, Edmonds averaged 13.1 touches and 79.8 yards from scrimmage over the Cards’ first eight contests.
Now Conner moves into the lead role on the league’s second-highest scoring offense (32.8 points per game) with Eno Benjamin in relief. And if Sunday’s explosion is any kind of indication, Conner will be a weekly RB1 start as long as Edmonds remains sidelined.
Conner hasn’t been in that role since 2018 in his second season with the Steelers when he finished sixth among running backs with 280 total PPR points (21.5 per game).
In the Bolts’ 27-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly, Williams caught two of his five targets for 58 yards and no TDs. One of his catches went for 49 yards, and he did finish second on the team in receiving yards and targets, but four other L.A. pass-catchers finished with more fantasy points, including the three aforementioned tight ends.
And if Williams’ five-target, two-reception stat line sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Those have been his exact totals from each of his last three games, totaling six catches, 104 yards, no scores and 16.4 fantasy points during that span.
In four of his first five games (Weeks 1-3 and 5), Williams had at least nine targets, seven receptions, 82 receiving yards and 22.1 PPR points while totaling six TD grabs in those four contests.
But in his other four outings (Weeks 4 and 7-9), Williams hasn’t more than five targets, two receptions, 58 receiving yards or 7.8 fantasy points while failing to score.
Buying or BRUSHING OFF: Just barely as we’re holding off for another game or so to see if things turn around.
Williams’ numbers certainly are trending in the wrong direction, and there have been reports that a nagging knee issue has helped slow him down in recent weeks.
But we remain big believers in the Chargers’ passing game. QB Justin Herbert ranks fourth with 211 total completions and fifth at the position with an average of 26.4 fantasy points per outing — and the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Williams looked way too good over the first five games of the season to believe he’s now only a WR 3/4.
The rookie tight end reeled in five of his team high-matching six targets for 43 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Steelers’ 29-27 win over the Bears.
It was the third straight game with at least 12.8 fantasy points for Freiermuth, who has totaled 16 receptions for 145 yards and three TDs during that span, which includes Pittsburgh’s Week 7 bye. It’s also an average of 16.2 fantasy points during that stretch, which is tops among tight ends who have played multiple games since Week 6.
BUYING or brushing off: Most definitely.
It’s the tight end position, first and foremost. Nothing more needs to be added there.
And it’s also the perfect offense for a tight end to thrive in.
Aging QB Ben Roethlisberger entered the week ranked 25th among passers with a 6.6-yard average per attempt, and one of his prime short-area targets of recent seasons, WR JuJu Smith Schuster, was lost for the season in Week 5 with a shoulder injury.
Enter the Penn State rookie who has stepped up and showed out in the Steelers’ three straight wins.
Put it all together, and that makes Freiermuth a TE1 going forward.
Which direction are some of your fantasy players trending?
It’s never too early to be a step ahead of the rest of the owners in your fantasy football leagues. We’re heading into Week 4, which is the penultimate week before fantasy teams start crumbling and having their bench strength tested.
Thanks to an 18-week, 17-game schedule, bye weeks start in Week 6 and extend all the way to Week 14 – a record nine weeks with anywhere between two and six teams sidelined.
While some fantasy owners made a point to keep an eye on the bye weeks on the night of their auction or draft — in most cases, that was a month and a half ago. A lot of has changed on rosters since.
The NFL is going to get rid of 10 teams for a week in Weeks 6 and 7 – the Falcons, Saints, 49ers and Jets in Week 6 and Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars in Week 7. It’s an annual grind, but one not all owners in a fantasy league are aware of at this point.
You have two tasks as you head into Week 4, accomplished by quietly tipping away from the herd unnoticed. First is make sure you haven’t morphed into a roster that can get killed during a week or two of bye week season. Wins are hard enough to come by. You don’t give them away.
Second is to look at other teams that have owners who are too heavily invested in the 10 teams that are opening up the bye week period. Now is the time to see if you can swing a deal to “help them out” of their predicament.
A lot of times better positioning yourself comes with advanced scouting. Nobody else is talking about bye weeks now. By the time Week 4 is over, it’s going to be all the chatter heading into Week 5, because once Week 6 comes, there won’t be a week without byes until the weekend before Christmas.
Do your homework while others are oblivious.
Here is the Week 4 Fantasy Football Market Report:
Chase was a controversial franchise pick when OT Penei Sewell was on the board to be a decade-long anchor for Chase’s former college QB, Joe Burrow. However, through three games, he is making it impossible not to start him in fantasy lineups. He isn’t running the route trees of Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins but is averaging 20 yards per receptions and has four touchdown catches – including on passes of 34, 42 and 50 yards. He is kind of a one-trick pony, but it’s a great trick. He can only get better as more routes are designed to make him the first option instead of the streaking deep threat. If you don’t have him, make a trade to get him. If you have him, the return offers may be crazy.
I’ve never been a fan of Cousins. He has tended to choke on the biggest stages at critical times of games and seasons. Every year, it’s difficult to endorse him as a full-time fantasy starter, but he has become a more polished field general. This season, he has thrown for 918 yards with eight touchdowns and a passer rating of 118.3. If you want a consistent option, Cousins is your guy. He has gone 17 straight games with a passer rating of 90.0 or above – only one player in NFL history under the passer rating standard has done that. That would be Peyton Manning (23). Name every great QB in the history of the game and, aside from Peyton, nobody other than Cousins can make that claim.
The Texans are a hot mess, but they are forcing the ball to Cooks – their only viable offensive weapon. Everyone has suffered without Deshaun Watson in Houston’s offense. Cooks dominating the team’s target share (35.6 percent) is on par with that of Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams (35.8) over the first three weeks of the season. The Texans have thrown 90 passes – 32 to Cooks. They have completed 58 – 23 of them to Cooks. Nobody has more than nine targets or six receptions. It’s difficult to endorse anyone from the Texans. Given these numbers, some defenses may make it a mission to bracket him, but his value at the moment is as high as it may ever be.
I will be the first to admit that I’ve never been a “Darnold guy.” I thought he was overhyped coming into the draft and the Jets’ willingness to cut bait with him lent to that argument. However, in his first three games in Carolina, he has accounted for two touchdowns in each outing (three passing and three rushing), topping 300 passing yards twice and reaching 279 in the other. While he’s not getting a hearty endorsement, with bye week season coming up, it’s nice to have a replacement – even if just for a week – who has shown consistency in scoring points.
Typically we don’t put players who are obvious weekly fantasy starters, unless they’re playing so light’s out for your team, someone might come to you with a crazy trade offer to include him. Kupp is having that kind of start with Matthew Stafford. Through three games, Kupp has been targeted 33 times, caught 25 passes for 367 yards and scored five touchdowns. Robert Woods, on the other hand, has numbers of 19-11-124-1 through three games. Kupp has three more receptions than the next two Rams combined and has almost 100 more receiving yards than the next two teammates combined. It’s hard to imagine many fantasy owners with Kupp aren’t 3-0, because this is rarely seen dominance, especially with a new quarterback.
Through three games, if a fantasy receiver had 20 catches for 184 yards and no touchdowns, he would be no great shakes. Unfortunately, those are the combined numbers of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith (10-109-0 for Henry, 10-74-0 for Smith). Then there is the matter of their contracts (three years, $37.4 million for Henry, four years, $50 million for Smith). You kind of get the idea the front office thought Cam Newton was going to the be the QB when free agency opened. While both were likely brought onto fantasy rosters to be regular starters, they’re killing owners who have them.
Diggs was the league leader in targets, receptions and yards in the league last year. This season, he has 19 receptions for 191 yards – never hitting 70 in any game – and one touchdown. He’s second on the team in receptions, third in receiving yards, and third in touchdowns on his own team, much less the league. With Josh Allen at the wheel, the big days will come along. But, for now, if fantasy owners have options, it won’t take long before they start looking elsewhere, if they have viable options and Diggs has an unfavorable matchup.
Taylor was an investment in most leagues to be RB1 and a cornerstone player. Granted, his first three games were against Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee – all playoff teams last year – but still, the numbers are pretty brutal. He hasn’t hit 65 rushing yards in a game, his number of carries has dropped in each contest (17-15-10), he has just eight receptions (six in Week 1 and two since), and he hasn’t scored a touchdown. For a Colts team that hasn’t won yet and has its season swirling like a toilet bowl, those forced to keep riding Taylor can’t wait for the Texans and Jags to show up.
The fourth overall pick was expected to be an impact player right out of the gate. While he has flashed the ability to be a downfield threat, the reality is that he is fourth on the team in receptions – behind retread Cordarrelle Patterson for receptions, yards and touchdowns. In three games, he has caught just 11 passes for 139 yards and no TDs – with 35 or fewer yards in two of them. He’s going to be an immense talent, but, for now, he’s an anchor tied to a fantasy owner’s leg, and the Falcons don’t have the look of an offensive juggernaut anytime soon.
Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones were viewed not necessarily as starters, because they were slated to split time. But few could have expected how little they would have to split up. Fournette is the lead dog by default but has just 24 carries for 92 yards. Jones has just 15 carries for 52 yards. The only rushing touchdowns the Bucs have are from Tom Brady and Chris Godwin. Brady has thrown the ball almost six times as often as Fournette and Jones have run the ball. At this point, both are too poisonous to play, unless you’re forced into it.
