Tag: EPA

Advanced stats say surging 49ers present formidable foe for Cowboys

Cowboys scored over 100 more points and allowed less points than SF, but the 49ers hold a slight edge in key win indicators. @ProfessorO_NFL dives into DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity.

The 2021 NFL regular season officially ended with the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys dominating the Philadelphia Eagles in a record-breaking night for quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were short-handed due to injuries and COVID-19 cases but able to win on Saturday then watch to see if they could move up in NFC seeding. With the Seattle Seahawks beating the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers upsetting the Los Angeles Rams, the Cowboys were able to move from the four seed to the three and will have their sights on the 49ers this Sunday in the opening round of the playoffs.

The 49ers ended their season on a high with a come-from-behind victory. They finished the season third in their division with a 10-7 record but with the sixth seed. They will fly into Dallas with similar momentum as both teams have won four of their last five games.

This matchup features several intriguing storylines, however the one that is sure to garner a lot of attention will be the matchup of Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn facing off with 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons during their best days that included a trip to the Super Bowl. Their knowledge of each other’s schemes and thought processes presents an interesting meeting.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Eagles’ offense has EPA edge, but do Cowboys own Week 18 advanced stat title?

Think the Cowboys have been light years ahead of the Eagles this season? Think again. The stats notebook shows a fairly even matchup between the rivals. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFC East features two playoff teams this season in the 11-5 Dallas Cowboys and 9-7 Philadelphia Eagles. With both teams facing injury challenges and COVID zapping their rosters, there has been a lot of chatter regarding how many starters will play and for how long. The word out of Dallas this week has been that the Cowboys plan to play their starters with a goal of winning, but their starters are compromised, especially on defense.

The Cowboys have won four of their last five games but were unable to beat the Arizona Cardinals last week, losing 25-22.  The Eagles are currently on a four-game winning streak, picking up a win over the Washington Football Team last weekend.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced Stats: Cardinals first real Cowboys competition in months

Cowboys and Cardinals split in four critical win indicators with both teams featuring explosive offenses and stingy defenses. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

It’s Week 17 in the 2021 NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions. With the division wrapped up, Dallas can focus on seeding from this point onward.  Currently the No. 2 seed via a three-way tiebreaker with the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have the potential to finish anywhere in the top four with two games remaining.

Coming off of a 56-point decimation of the Washington Football Team, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and sit at 11-4 on the season. Dallas will host the Arizona Cardinals in a Sunday afternoon game and at home, the Cowboys have averaged 38.4 PPG and 426.1 YPG.

Arizona is 10-5 on the season but have lost five of their last eight games after an impressive 7-0 start to the season. They are one game behind the Rams in the NFC West and currently hold the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals have played particularly well on the road this year with a 7-1 record, averaging 30.3 points per game and 2.5 takeaways in those games.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

They tried it, but Washington can’t compare to Cowboys in advanced analytics

What areas are the WFT competitive with the division-leading Cowboys? A look at EPA, DVOA, Success rate and more metrics for Week 16. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Cowboys have three scenarios for clinching the division this week, and it’s wholly possible their work will be done for them before they hit the field on Sunday night. On Thursday, they earned a spot in the playoffs by virtue of the San Francisco 49ers’ loss at the hand of the Tennessee Titans, but just because others can and have assisted Dallas it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be prepared to handle their own business.

The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) will host the Washington Football Team (6-8) on Sunday Night Football with the opportunity to give Cowboys fans a late Christmas gift.  The Cowboys are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFL and have chance to clinch the divisional title with any of the following scenarios: a win/tie over Washington, a Philadelphia Eagles loss/tie or a combination of 1.5 wins by LV, Jax, LAC, NE, MIN and Atlanta). All of those other contests happen earlier in the day on Sunday, but things still could come down to a divisional matchup.

The Cowboys are riding a three-game-in-three-week road winning streak, the first time they’ve accomplished this feat since 1969. They boast the No. 1 defense in the league on third-down conversions allowed (31.9%) and are tied for No.1 in takeaways with 31 on the season.

The Football Team is in the midst of a five-game stretch of NFC East opponents. They’ve lost the last two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and their playoff odds are getting increasingly smaller with each defeat. Some good news for WFT is that quarterback Taylor Heinicke was removed from COVID protocol and will be eligible to play Sunday Night.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability. Let’s review this week’s edition to see which team will get presents and which will get coal.

Cowboys have edge in key win indicators, but can they stop WFT momentum?

WFT leads the league in third-down conversions since Wk 7 while the Cowboys are second overall in conversion defense. Who has the edge in advanced stats? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The 8-4 Dallas Cowboys will face the 6-6 Washington Football Team in an intra-division battle with playoff implications on the line. The Cowboys will make their second consecutive road trip, following a win against the New Orleans Saints.  Currently on track for the fourth seed in the NFC, the Cowboys will want to continue to add distance from the rest of the division and a win against Washington would go a long way towards clinching a playoff spot.  The Cowboys currently have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 94.2% chance to win the division.

Their magic number to clinch the division is four.

Washington will enter Sunday riding a four-game winning streak.   With wins over the Tampa Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders, WFT has been able to find new life from a defense that struggled early in the season, and a rejuvenated running game.  WFT did receive news that defensive end Montez Sweat will miss the game due to COVID-19. This game starts their five-game stretch against NFC East opponents to close out the season.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how these two rivals measure up using DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity. Will the Cowboys be able to move one step closer to clinching a divisional title or will WFT be able to close the gap?

Advanced Stat Notebook- Cowboys have edge in DVOA but EPA too close to call

When looking at the advanced metrics for Week 13, they favor the Cowboys but the margins are too close to call. Here’s a look at DVOA, EPA, Toxicity, ANY/A and Success Rate. From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will head to New Orleans to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football.  Entering Week 13 with a 7-4 record, the Cowboys will look to bounce back from a Thanksgiving Day overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games to the AFC West, but will now face conference opponents for the remainder of the season.  There were a lot of additions and losses this week that are worth noting:  CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Demarcus Lawrence will return from injury while Terrance Steele, Mike McCarthy and five assistant coaches will miss the game due to COVID-19.

The New Orleans Saints currently have a 5-6 record and have lost four straight games.  The Saints played on Thanksgiving as well, losing 31-6 to the Buffalo Bills. The big news for the Saints this week is that Taysom Hill has taken first team snaps at practice at quarterback and is expected to start this week.  Head coach Sean Payton has not officially announced Hill as the starter over Trevor Siemian as they are monitoring Hill’s foot injury at practice.  They are expecting Alvin Kamara to return for the Cowboys game as well.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Toxicity aside, Cowboys enjoy advanced stat edge over Raiders in Week 12

Who’s more toxic? That team from the desert might have a chance when it comes to the big play, but does Dallas win out overall? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday afternoon as part of their annual NFL Thanksgiving showcase. The Cowboys all-time record on Thanksgiving sits at 31-21-1. Recent Thanksgiving games haven’t gone well for Dallas, with their last win happening in 2018 against the Washington Football Team.  The Cowboys and Raiders have played two times on Thanksgiving, 2009 and 2013, with Dallas winning both times.

The Cowboys enter this week with a 7-3 record after falling to the Kansas Chiefs in a 19-9 game that saw the offense struggle to move the ball consistently.  This will be the fourth and final game against the AFC West division, with the Cowboys currently holding a 1-2 record with a strong road win against the Los Angeles Chargers and two ugly losses against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys are looking for their eighth win of the season and a winning record against the AFC, after beating New England in Week 6.

Quarterback Dak Prescott will be without one of his top weapons again with Amari Cooper missing his second game due to COVID-19.  They may be without CeeDee Lamb as well after Lamb suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Raiders will travel to Dallas with a 5-5 record on the season and a three-game losing streak. Adversity has been the keyword to the Raiders season after firing their Head Coach Jon Gruden and then their two first round picks (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette) from the 2020 draft due to off the field issues. Their offense has had difficulty scoring points as of late, averaging 14 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Cowboys and Raiders all-time record is squared up at 6-6.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Inside the Numbers: How advanced stats see Cowboys-Chiefs Week 11 matchup

Which team’s more toxic, explosive? Which defense more successful? Who’s better per play and when opponent strength is considered? Breaking down acronym soup. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFL’s Week 11 slate features a matchup of two explosive offenses as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys enter the game with a 7-2 record and are coming off of an impressive, 43-3 home win against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cowboys scored on the opening possession and never looked back, putting up 431 yards of offense and winning both the turnover battle and time of possession by wide margins.

The 6-4 Chiefs had a dominant performance of their own as they beat down the Las Vegas Raiders, 41-14. Any win over a divisional opponent is a good one, but doing so in a lopsided affair, is even better. The Chiefs gained over 500 yards of total offense and won their turnover battle and time of possession as well.

With both teams coming off of highly productive weeks, this game does not lack in storylines.

Notably, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott will play each other for the first time in their careers. Both QBs are MVP candidates and together have combined for 45 touchdown passes. Head coach Mike McCarthy and Andy Reid have plenty of experience against each other going back to playoff matchups in their previous roles with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have young linebackers who are off to terrific starts to their careers in Micah Parsons and Nick Bolton. They each feature explosive wide recievers (Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper) matched with strong tight end play by Travis Kelce and Dalton Schultz.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Straws on a Camel’s Back: 5 biggest plays from Cowboys’ Week 9 defeat

Which play was the nail in the coffin? When did the Cowboys officially go from favorites to likely losers? Dissecting the game by EPA, WPA impact outlines the key turning points. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys rode into Week 9 with a six-game winning streak and their quarterback, Dak Prescott, returning from an injured calf that held him out the prior week. With a high-powered offense and a defense coming off of their best game of the season, the Cowboys hosted the Denver Broncos in a rare noon kickoff at AT&T Stadium.

The Broncos entered the matchup with a six-game winning streak of their own, winners of six consecutive matchups with the Cowboys going back to the 1995 season. For the season, the Broncos were 4-4 losing four in a row before edging by the Washington Football Team with a 17-10 win.

On paper, this was a game that the Cowboys were favored to win easily. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Broncos were having none of that.  A mixture of failed third and fourth-down conversions for the offense and big plays allowed by the defense added up to a bad day for Cowboys fans as the Broncos won, 30-16. Those sixteen points scored by Dallas made the score appear closer than the game actually was. Denver’s defense set the tone early and brought a lot of pressure against Prescott while the Broncos’ offense broke tackles and gashed the Cowboys with big plays. Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail.

Here are the five biggest plays of the game using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability models from rbsdm.com. EPA is a formula that takes historical data and applies it to every play to determine if it increases or decreases a team’s expected points given the outcome of that play.  Every down and distance has a level of expected points; the likelihood a team will score on that particular drive based on that situation. Therefore EPA measures the shift in expected points as a result of a specific play.

Advanced Stat Notebook: Week 9 metrics show Cowboys should saddle Broncos

Cowboys, wild horses… this can only go one way folks. @ProfessorO_NFL looks into EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxicity to see which team has the Week 9 advantages. Mount up.

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday for an early afternoon showdown. The Cowboys are riding a six game winning streak and are expected to have quarterback Dak Prescott back from injury. Prescott missed the Vikings game last week with a groin injury suffered against the New England Patriots.

The Broncos come to town in a bit of a slump, dropping four of their last five games. They were able to end their losing skid with a 17-10 win against the Washington Football Team last week. The Broncos found themselves in the news with a big trade, sending pass rusher Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams for two Day-2 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics.

Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 7 on the season.